100% Speculation -- Guess the two minor league PTBNL's for K-Rod

[TurkWendell]

Thanks for the replies guys.

 

Certainly Gamel is our mark, and certainly the guy you don't want to give up here.

 

Can't say any of those other names really excite me NEARLY as much, but I'd think the McClendon kid may look most likely (in so far as "has had some major league success" and "has a role right away".) Don't know if any of those others fit those 2 critera (especially the 35 yr old catchers...). Some guys would make some sense (like a Mitch Stetter, considering our lack of left-handed relief), but with him injured, doubtful thats who Sandy was referring to.

 

Anyway, again, thanks for the input. I'll definitely let you know if there is anything else on this end from Sandy in the coming days. I look forward to following this to see if anything starts leaking through from Melvin or others on your end too. Enjoy Frankie- fun guy to watch (just a toxic contract)!

[HiAndTight]

And honestly what well-informed Mets fan would be upset with the team just dumping such an albatross of a contract, even if they don't get middling to decent prospects in return?

I would as a Brewers fan.

 

K-Rod still has value as a reliever. Obviously very little to the Mets, but there would likely have been other teams looking at him. To give him away, 5 million dollars, thereby saving only about 3-4 million without the option(which intelligent Mets fans know wouldn't have been vested or picked up by most teams) and they can't even get some low level guys who throw the ball hard, or have a lot of raw power?

 

I'd want a D'Vontey Richardson type or a Rob Bryson type in return. Guys who are probably unlikely to ever develop into stars...or even make the big leagues, but who at least have the potential to be stars.

[DHonks]

I'll say Mitch Stetter (my first thought last night was Parra, but he's not in games yet) and Eric Arnett

[Raw Biz]

Since I haven't thrown any names out there, I'll go with McClendon and Haydel.

[And That]

Well, I asked Cot's creator Jeff Euston about the rule:

Could 40-man players like Mat Gamel & Tim Dillard, who have played in MLB this year but are currently in AAA, be PTBNLs?

To which he answered:

Yes. But the PTBN cannot be on the active 25-man between the trade & the date the player is named.

There you go.

[Mass Haas]

Sandy Alderson was on WFAN after his formal press conference, and concluded his interview with the following, in response to a question about when we would learn the identities of the 2 PTBNLs:

 

"We have one guy we're deciding on who has been in the big leagues, has been reasonably successful in the big leagues, he would have a role for us right away and we could decide on him shortly."

 

He stated that they might chose 1 guy quickly and leave the other guy til later in the season.

 

Here's the audio link, the quote above begins just after the 18:00 minute mark.

[Raw Biz]

Well, I asked Cot's creator Jeff Euston about the rule:

Could 40-man players like Mat Gamel & Tim Dillard, who have played in MLB this year but are currently in AAA, be PTBNLs?

To which he answered:

Yes. But the PTBN cannot be on the active 25-man between the trade & the date the player is named.

There you go.

Yeah that's what I've been trying to say. Maybe mine was too wordy.

On a side note, maybe this should be merged with the Major League thread, since there seems to be a lot of overlap.

 

[jjfanec]

Well, I asked Cot's creator Jeff Euston about the rule:

Could 40-man players like Mat Gamel & Tim Dillard, who have played in MLB this year but are currently in AAA, be PTBNLs?

To which he answered:

Yes. But the PTBN cannot be on the active 25-man between the trade & the date the player is named.

There you go.

Well lets just call Gamel back up and we are good to go.

[TurkWendell]

Well, I asked Cot's creator Jeff Euston about the rule:

Could 40-man players like Mat Gamel & Tim Dillard, who have played in MLB this year but are currently in AAA, be PTBNLs?

To which he answered:

Yes. But the PTBN cannot be on the active 25-man between the trade & the date the player is named.

There you go.

Well lets just call Gamel back up and we are good to go.

Haha, well that would certainly be a tell-tale sign.

I'll be monitoring the Brewers' transaction wire the next few weeks, certainly.

 

[1e Corbeau]

I'll go with Stetter, who is almost back from injury and just had a kid ($440,000 major league salary would certainly be helpful, even if the move might not), and Brock Kjeldgaard, who has a bit of upside in his power bat, but certainly isn't a "top" prospect.

 

My dream scenario, ignoring the media bytes, would be Mercedes and Pacual—just to get something for our IFA bonus babies http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[TooLiveBrew]

Met fan here, weighing in. Not trolling, I swear.

 

Welcome, and awesome username.

[CheezWizHed]

I really doubt its Gamel. If he were an option, why would they not take him now? Why wait?

 

Stetter makes sense, since he is rehabbing, so they could simply be waiting for him to get healthy. McClendon might be a backup to Stetter if he has a rehab setback.

 

But Gamel makes NO sense whatsoever (except from the Met's fan "I-wish" point of view).

 

Welcome TurkWendell and thanks for your contributions!

[patrickgpe]

doubt its gamel, having hearing alderson's comments i'm pretty convinced McClendon or Kinzler is one of the 2. I am perfectly fine with loosing either one of those 2. The other player I still think is a midlevel high A or AA player, like Schafer or Ross.

[TurkWendell]

I really doubt its Gamel. If he were an option, why would they not take him now? Why wait?

 

Stetter makes sense, since he is rehabbing, so they could simply be waiting for him to get healthy. McClendon might be a backup to Stetter if he has a rehab setback.

 

But Gamel makes NO sense whatsoever (except from the Met's fan "I-wish" point of view).

 

Welcome TurkWendell and thanks for your contributions!

This is pretty much the Mets' fan conundrum. We want to use Sandy's words to infer its Gamel, but then like you said, thats a pretty good name for Sandy to put out there initially as a good "return" for KRod (issues transferring from the minors to the majors aside for now), so why hold it up? The only straw we're grasping onto is the whole "GM speak" reasoning of, to borrow something a Met poster said on another board:

"It's still better, if you know you want a guy, to be able to select him weeks later off a list that includes other possible gets, in case there's a reason down the road that you would not select him (e.g., scouts see something bad, or see something good in other players)."

I mean, if you can get his name on a list that Melvin agrees to, and you weren't doing extensive scouting of the Brewers ahead of time, even if you're 95% sure you want Gamel, more info is always better than old info, right? Maybe you want to investigate why, to date, he hasn't been able to transfer his minor league successes in his callups?

I guess the idea is that the PTBNL stipulation, if you know you're not getting/going after current major leaguers, allows you some flexibility and time in choosing your guys, rather than be locked into a guy right away. Not that there are a LOT of instances of these, but there have been some "bigger" names traded as PTBNL's recently:

-Chris Perez was a PTBNL in the Mark DeRosa trade from the Indians to the Cards a few years back. The rumor was the Cards gave them the choice of Perez or Motte (who I believe were both in the majors at the time, or at least had been at some point...which was OK, because of the silly rules involving "switching leagues" with PTBNLs), so they used some time to scout both more extensively

-Micah Owings, who started 18 games for the DBacks that year, went from arizona to the Reds in the Adam Dunn deal as a PTBNL

-Sean Rodriguez was a PTBNL for the Rays in the Scott Kazmir deal

Anyway, just some examples of guys who were more "known" quantities who if you were sure you wanted initially, you probably could have more easily just announced their names at the times of the deal, but instead held back as PTBNLs. I think the most important thing is that obviously the "buyer" in these deals are looking for quick resolution as their obviously chasing something, and every game holds more importance. The "seller", while maybe not giving up completely, knows the day-to-day is less important at this point and will consummate a deal quicker to satisfy the buyer and can afford to wait a bit and not be concerned if waiting an extra week to be sure comes back to bite them in that the guy they wanted could've helped them in the meantime.

BUT, with that all said, Gamel is probably a Met fan pipe dream, but one we'll hold onto for now in the backs of our minds. I guess we're counting on Melvin souring on him (was his demotion a surprise? Seemed like he was getting semi-regular time at a few different positions, and obviously McGahee has really struggled this year), and maybe as he's 26 and I believe out of options after this year, he no longer considers him a "top top" prospect. Our best parallel might be a guy like Nick Evans, who is similarly defensively challenged but "plays" all 4 corners, is 25 as well, hit .300/.371/.536 last year between AA and AAA and has hit .329/.378/.480 in AAA this year, but just can't seem to translate it when he gets his chances up here. Or, to a lesser extent, Fernando Martinez, who is a little different because he's still just 22, but he was once our legit number 1 guy, Omar made him totally untouchable for years, but thanks to some fantastic roster management, will be out-of-options next year and has done nothing in the majors in his limited chances to make you think he can stick. So I could definitely see him being dealt in a similar deal from our end, and even though he carries a big name, I wouldn't expect Sandy to consider him one of our "top top" guys.

[CheezWizHed]

(was his demotion a surprise? Seemed like he was getting semi-regular time at a few different positions, and obviously McGahee has really struggled this year)

 

No, no surprise. Perhaps a surprise that he stayed up past inter-league play. We all knew he was only up to play DH (or allow Fielder to DH). And he really isn't a 3B anymore. Just couldn't quite handle the defense. But if you really want him, maybe we could make a deal for David Wright. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[SoCalBrewfan]

Hey, Turk,

 

Thanks for visiting and being a friendly and thoughful visitor. A couple thoughts on your post:

 

First, Melvin is notoriously hard to read in his public pronouncements, even deceptive maybe. That said, Gamel would be a big surprise as a PTBNL. He was basically only up to be a dh for the interleague games, and then I think they kept him in the hope that he could complement McGehee in a semi-platoon at 3b. But Gamel was moved off 3b to be a full-time 1b earlier, and hadn't played third all year, so that was more a roll of the dice than a carefully thought through plan. Supposedly he'll play 3b a bit more in AAA now, but he's really not a good fit there, and his throwing problems were never really resolved. Defensively he's a Brewer through and through... The widespread assumption here is that Gamel is part of the team's plans going forward, as a potential successor to Prince if/when he leaves this offseason, and the move to 1b in AAA was consistent with that assumption. I doubt that has changed, but again Melvin can surprise everyone. (This deal is a great example.)

 

Second, we definitely shouldn't rule out the PTBNLs being decent prospects. In the Sabathia deal, the Indians had the choice between Taylor Green and Michael Brantley as the PTBNL, and some have felt that the latter was the best piece the Tribe got in that deal. (Some have debated Green v. Brantley ever since.) While this deal is not the same stature, I think it's similar in the sense that it came early in the trading season, and in both cases the team wanted some time to get a better look at the prospects. McClendon is a good guess as the guy Alderson mentioned, and he's not a bad pitcher...not a power reliever by any stretch, but a smart pitcher. Mitch Stetter is a serviceable lefty who is rehabbing in the AZL and has had some major league success.

[TurkWendell]

(was his demotion a surprise? Seemed like he was getting semi-regular time at a few different positions, and obviously McGahee has really struggled this year)

 

No, no surprise. Perhaps a surprise that he stayed up past inter-league play. We all knew he was only up to play DH. And he really isn't a 3B anymore. Just couldn't quite handle the defense. But if you really want him, maybe we could make a deal for David Wright. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif As bad of shape we're in, we're not THAT bad.

[TurkWendell]

Hey, Turk,

 

Thanks for visiting and being a friendly and thoughful visitor. A couple thoughts on your post:

 

First, Melvin is notoriously hard to read in his public pronouncements, even deceptive maybe. That said, Gamel would be a big surprise as a PTBNL. He was basically only up to be a dh for the interleague games, and then I think they kept him in the hope that he could complement McGehee in a semi-platoon at 3b. But Gamel was moved off 3b to be a full-time 1b earlier, and hadn't played third all year, so that was more a roll of the dice than a carefully thought through plan. Supposedly he'll play 3b a bit more in AAA now, but he's really not a good fit there, and his throwing problems were never really resolved. Defensively he's a Brewer through and through... The widespread assumption here is that Gamel is part of the team's plans going forward, as a potential successor to Prince if/when he leaves this offseason, and the move to 1b in AAA was consistent with that assumption. I doubt that has changed, but again Melvin can surprise everyone. (This deal is a great example.)

 

Second, we definitely shouldn't rule out the PTBNLs being decent prospects. In the Sabathia deal, the Indians had the choice between Taylor Green and Michael Brantley as the PTBNL, and some have felt that the latter was the best piece the Tribe got in that deal. (Some have debated Green v. Brantley ever since.) While this deal is not the same stature, I think it's similar in the sense that it came early in the trading season, and in both cases the team wanted some time to get a better look at the prospects. McClendon is a good guess as the guy Alderson mentioned, and he's not a bad pitcher...not a power reliever by any stretch, but a smart pitcher. Mitch Stetter is a serviceable lefty who is rehabbing in the AZL and has had some major league success.

Thanks for the welcome.

Yeah, it seems McClendon might be the guy who fits this whole thing best. Some people have also mentioned Kinzler, but I don't think he's eligible as he's on the major league DL right now, which means he wouldn't be "switching leagues" as the PTBNL rule mandates. I've also seen some Mark DiFelice talk, but he's a 35 yr old guy with arm issues, so I just CAN'T imagine thats what Sandy was looking for here (I'd assume he'd take an A ball guy with little chance of ever being much, but with some glimmer of upside over a 35 yr old with arm troubles, no?).

Stetter I hope is not the guy. As most have said, he's rehabbing, and I don't know how "ready" he is, but Sandy seemed to imply he could name this guy today and he'd be contributing tomorrow for the 2nd half opener. And as I mentioned above, if he really wanted a 30-ish guy with subpar velocity and some past lefty-on-lefty success in the majors, our AAA team isn't hurting for that: Justin Hampson, Taylor Tankersley and Mike O'Connor all stashed down there. And I THINK Stetter has to be nearing arbitration-eligibility, perhaps after this year, and then he probably outgains his usefulness (in that, anything over the league minimum is probably too much to pay for a guy like that).

So yeah, I think McClendon is starting to come to forefront here as making the most sense...but we'll see. I have to admit, before yesterday, I had never even heard of the guy, so when I looked at Nashville's roster for guys who I knew had "past major league success" or however Sandy phrased it, I never even considered him initially.

 

[CheezWizHed]

If it helps, there is a thread here questioning why McClendon is still at AAA, when we were having BP issues at the MLB level. He isn't a fireballer or a closer, but will probably have a nice career as a good BP arm.

[YoungGeezy]

If it helps, there is a thread here questioning why McClendon is still at AAA, when we were having BP issues at the MLB level. He isn't a fireballer or a closer, but will probably have a nice career as a good BP arm.

Could be Mike Adams part II

 

 

[TurkWendell]

If it helps, there is a thread here questioning why McClendon is still at AAA, when we were having BP issues at the MLB level. He isn't a fireballer or a closer, but will probably have a nice career as a good BP arm.

Could be Mike Adams part II

 

Funny you mention Adams, since we (Mets) are the ones you traded him to (for Geremi Gonzalez, IIRC). Of course, we then let him go shortly thereafter for nothing, all before he went from being "Mike Adams?" to "Mike Adams!!"

So, at least take solace that we had him slightly closer to his breakout and still saw nothing, and at least you got something (albeit, not much) back for him when you dumped him.

 

[TurkWendell]

Little bit of glimmer of hope for the Mets fans today offered by Keith Law (who usually loves to needle us, it seems...but perhaps most fan bases feel this way too). From his chat today (no, I am not Steve from Livermore, CA):

 

Steve (Livermore, CA)

I know you didn't like the KRod deal for the Brewers, but let me play devil's advocate. He's still K'ing 10/9, they didn't have to give up a "top top" guy, and they can get 2 high picks for him in the draft. They can rebuild the system with 5 high picks (2 from Fielder, 2 from KRod, and their own) next year.

 

Klaw (1:09 PM)

Got a few comments like this in the Conversation, but I'm not buying it. K/9 is not a great measure, since the denominator is innings (outs) rather than batters faced. (Two pitchers can have equal K/9 rates even if one walks twice as many batters as the other, and thus isn't striking out the same percentage of hitters.) As for draft picks, the Brewers would have to offer him arbitration and then would risk an arbitration award of about $12.5-$14 million if he accepts, which he most likely would. I believe Boras represented Millwood when he accepted arbitration from Atlanta. True, they didn't give up a "top top" guy, but I've been told the players on the list are not zeroes, either.

(Bolded for emphasis).

Now, not to say guys like Stetter and the like are "zeroes", but a guy like Keith Law, who is a prospect snob, certainly would have no problem using that moniker for older, no upside role players.

2 hitters Mets fans are spending some time discussing as hopefuls are Khris Davis (older guy who has been killing his league...maybe not more than an org guy, but at least piques the interest) and Erik Komatsu - how do you guys value those 2? Would you be upset losing them, considering those guys "the cost of doing business", be pumped if thats "all" you gave up, etc? On Khris Davis: we have a guy kinda like him, but he's an IFer, named Josh Satin. He's 26 and in AA (after ending last year there) and is killing the league ...32 doubles this year so far, .970 OPS, 10 HRs...from a guy who's primary position is 2B and the EL I believe is a pitcher's league. Our assumption as fans has always been there must be an obvious flaw in this guys' game that the FO sees and knows he's better served helping the AA win than pushing him towards the bigs (or even AAA, since our AAA squad has almost NO talent in the middle infield )...is that how you feel about Khris Davis?

[TooLiveBrew]

I could definitely see Komatsu being one of the PsTBNL. Davis would surprise me & piss me off.

 

 

...is that how you feel about Khris Davis?

 

Absolutely not, and most who frequent the MiLB forum here are readying the pitchforks & torches if Davis isn't promoted to Huntsville soon.

[TheCrew07]

Davis only has 2 flaws in his game, he's not a plus runner and his arm is average at best, he does everything else well and it's laughable that the organization continues to hold him back. There has to be an agenda here, such as timing his arrival to Hart's expiring contract or some other such nonsense that isn't being talked about by the organization.

 

Either that or Nichols is just a clown and shouldn't hold his position, which I've always felt was true anyway.

[paul253]

I for one (well probably not for one) would be absolutely furious if Khris Davis is included in this trade. He is easily the best overall hitting prospect in the system. I also would be mad if Komatsu is traded. I guess it's true that he doesn't really have enough power to be a corner outfielder, but I've always been one to favor OBP ahead of power and he is having a really good year in AA. Even though he's struggled lately his OBP is still .388 and he has more walks than strikeouts. I also hope Logan Schafer isn't one to be traded. I think he would be a great replacement for Morgan after the 2012 season and is a candidate to lead off and FINALLY get Rickie Weeks further down in the lineup. Week's power is going to have to be utilized better once Fielder leaves. I could a 2013 lineup of something like Schafer, Komatsu, Weeks, Braun, Gamel.......Anyway, those are the three hitters I really hope aren't included.....Davis, Komatsu and Schafer. I'd be ok with something like McClendon and Gennett or McClendon and one of the too many 1B we have at the lower level (Hawn? Halton? Dennis?)