Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

K-Rod (and cash) acquired; The cost? LH reliever Daniel Ray Herrera and low-A RHP Adrian Rosario

AJAY

By AJAY,
in Milwaukee Brewers Talk

DuWayne Steurer Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

DuWayne Steurer

Brewer Fanatic Contributor
Posted
Posted
Having K-Rod as the closer could be beneficial but only if Roenicke were to use Axford when his best reliever was needed and not in a strict 8th inning role. I don't believe Roenicke would use Axford like that so I would rather they just use John as the closer and Frankie as the set-up guy.
You mean like if in the 8th inning of a one run game, and the other teams 3-4-5 are coming up? Pff....I don't believe Roenicke (or any MLB manager, honestly) has the critical thought process (or the guts) to pull a move like that.

 

The funny thing is people ragged about Macha, but Axford had 9 saves in which he worked more than 1 inning last year. Macha was never afraid to bring in his closer early if the situation warranted it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 576
  • Created
  • Last Reply
brewerfan82 First Round Pick

brewerfan82

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
small question, if k-rod pitches the top of the 9th, in a road game that the brewers are loosing, does that count as finishing a game?

I believe so, but in that case he's pitching against the Brewers and he's not our concern anyways http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif However, I imagine it also still counts as finishing the game if he closes out the 8th and the Brewers fail to tie/take the lead in the top of the 9th.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
pitchleague ACL Brewers

pitchleague

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
small question, if k-rod pitches the top of the 9th, in a road game that the brewers are loosing, does that count as finishing a game?
maybe I'm just overly tired from not sleeping well last night, but this question boggles my mind. How could K-Rod be pitching the TOP of the 9th inning when the Brewers are on the road? Never mind the losing part.

- - - - - - - - -

P.I.T.C.H. LEAGUE CHAMPION 1989, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2006, 2007, 2011 (finally won another one)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Raw Biz First Round Pick

Raw Biz

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

small question, if k-rod pitches the top of the 9th, in a road game that the brewers are loosing, does that count as finishing a game?
maybe I'm just overly tired from not sleeping well last night, but this question boggles my mind. How could K-Rod be pitching the TOP of the 9th inning when the Brewers are on the road? Never mind the losing part.
As brewerfan82 pointed out, I think he just mis-typed and meant to basically say if KRod pitched the last inning, even if the Brewers lost, would it count as a finished game. Finished games have nothing to do with saves. You get a finished game by being the last pitcher used on your team, regardless of whether you won or lost (unless it's a CG from the starter).
This is Jack Burton in the Pork Chop Express, and I'm talkin' to whoever's listenin' out there.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
monty57 ACL Brewers

monty57

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

First of all WAR is not an abstract stat at all, you can easily take the time to learn how it is calculated. People do not just watch games and then arbitrarily assign some WAR to every player based on their guts.

 

Arbitrary has multiple meanings. I didn't intend to say it was made up or non-factual. I meant that WAR does not take situations into effect. If a reliever enters a game when their team is tied or winning and leaves with their team losing, that is a reality which WAR does not consider. Like most statistical measures, it measures performance but not situation. Also, WAR compares all relievers equally, when a "setup guy" or "closer" should not be compared to a "mop up guy."

 

Actually going over the game log the count is 8

 

I don't have time or a fast enough internet connection at present to go through every game log to see the exact number of times Loe has come into a game with the Brewers tied or ahead and gave up that lead or tie, but he has seven losses and one save in seven opportunities, so I said "about 10." I'll trust scrapiron that the number is 8, which I consider "about 10."

 

You are saying if we replaced Loe in these 10 losses with anyone they would have been perfect and turned all those games from losses into wins.

 

and

 

You're saying that, if RR had put somebody (anybody?) other than Loe in as our 8th inning guy, we would be ten games better. We would be 59-33, the best team in baseball, a game and a half better than the Phillies, with at least a ten-game lead over St. Louis, if only Loe had not pitched the 8th inning.

 

 

No I'm not saying that. I didn't say I was measuring anything in a relative manner. He entered games with a tie score or a lead in the 8th inning and exited with the team losing. Sure no one's perfect, but he's still accountable for what he's done. If you do want to measure him in a relative manner (not that that would help the Brewers' win/loss), then measure him against other teams' setup guys, and not some mythical "replacement relief pitcher," which of course is going to be worse than I'd ever want to see as a setup guy for a playoff-caliber team.

 

The bottom line is that Loe has blown a lot of leads for the Brewers. To look at this in a relative sense, let's take a look at the Phillies. As a team they have three blown saves. Loe has six himself. If the "8" number from above is correct, and we had K-Rod as the setup guy instead of Loe from day one, we would probably have 6-7 more wins than we currently have, and we may well be ahead of the Phillies. We would certainly be several games up on the Cardinals. Of course K-Rod isn't "waReplacement level." If we had "waReplacement player" we'd be in the same boat we're in. I don't want a "replacement player" setting up Axford, but unfortunately that is what we've had with Loe.

 

Actually going over the game log the count is 8, with three of those losses he's been tagged with being two 2-1 losses and one 1-0 loss. I blame the offense in those contests more than Loe.

 

If the offense had scored more runs, Loe wouldn't have been in the game. You are going to have games where the offense scores 0-1-2 runs. In those games the pitchers have to fill their roles. In the above examples, the starters and any relievers leading up to Loe filled their roles. Loe didn't, so he is most at fault.

 

The Brewers are only 8-11 in games Marcum has started, so if he would have just thrown a shutout every outing he wouldn't have cost us those 11 games

 

Many of those losses were because we had a lead when Marcum left and the ball was handed off to Loe. Everyone has a role on a team. Marcum has fulfilled his role most of the time. Loe has failed at the "8th inning guy" role, although he certainly has the ability to be okay if used correctly.

 

Stats like WAR take things in a vaccuum and assume situations will even out over time. For the "setup guys" and "closers," the situation's almost always the same, and one run is much more important for them than it is for a "mopup guy." If Loe had been pitching this season as a middle reliever (and was used sparingly against LHP), his results may indeed look better. He has been used in critical situations, and he has failed in these situations enough that we needed him to be replaced. We now have a very good replacement, and it will make the team a lot better.

 

"About 10" games is too many if considered on a relative basis, but I'll stand by the assertation that the way Loe pitched as an 8th inning guy cost us more games than we would have saved by putting an average SS on the field instead of Yuni. Again, this is in a "this is what actually occurred" sense and not in a situational vaccuum sense.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Baldkin ACL Brewers

Baldkin

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

So, if you want context, you use WPA (Win probability Added)

 

Over the season worst WPAs:

YuniB: -2.07

Casey McGehee -1.14

Erick Almonte -1.04

Wil Nieves -0.90

Craig Counsell -0.80

-------------------------

Kameron Loe -1.34

Marco Estrada -1.30

Zach Braddock -0.75

Zack Greinke -0.56

Sean Green -0.50

Daniel Ray Herrera -0.30

 

YuniB has been that bad. Also, the 3 innings DRH pitched for us were horrible.

"I wasted so much time in my life hating Juventus or A.C. Milan that I should have spent hating the Cardinals." ~kalle8

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TurkWendell Prep Ball

TurkWendell

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

On the "game finished" question (since we've dealt with this all year), its much simpler than some try to make it out to be.

 

If KRod is the last guy listed in the boxscore on your side, thats a game finished. Regardless of whether it was a full inning, save or not save, losing or winning, etc. Here are some fun scenarios we got this year:

 

-KRod blows a save into a walkoff loss on the road: thats both a blown save, plus a "game finished": double-whammy!!

-KRod blows a save at home, but you come back to win it in the bottom of the inning: its a blown save, game finished, but exciting walk-off win...but you kind of get used to rooting for the game to get to extras first, so KRod can come out of the game before you win (yes I know, this is a miserable existence)

-KRod blows a lead/tie game at home, but is replaced before the inning ends because its getting so bad: yeah thats a BS or a loss, but it stings less because he didn't get the game finished!!! (again, sad, sad existence)

-KRod comes into a game we're winning by 7+ runs at home to "get some work": yeah you win, but a really needless game finished

-KRod comes into a game we're losing by 7+ runs on the road to "get some work": the ultimate punch in the gut; the only way the blowout loss could hurt more. We even had one game where we were down significantly, Terry Collins brought in Isringhausen for 1 out, then KRod for 2 outs in the bottom of the 8th because both guys "needed work". You couldn't have done that the OTHER WAY AROUND, TERRY!!?? That was probably the worst.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
monty57 ACL Brewers

monty57

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Baldkin, thanks for the link to WPA. Sorry for all the long-winded posts. I think it's a mix of frustration at Roenicke's leaving Loe as the "8th inning guy" and being in a sleep-deprived state when typing the posts.

 

Basically, I'm glad that Roenicke now has no excuse to call Loe his 8th inning guy, and I'm happy that Melvin is showing that he is going to upgrade this team heading into the "2nd half." If we can find an upgrade at SS and make the seemingly no-brainer move of calling up Taylor Green, we would have shored up most of our notable holes.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CheezWizHed Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

CheezWizHed

Brewer Fanatic Contributor
Posted
Posted

(again, sad, sad existence)

 

No need to explain. Many of us have been Brewer Fans through the '90s. On teams like that, you cheer for small victories... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites
RockCoCougars ACL Brewers

RockCoCougars

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Seriously, I can't understand how some of the same people who constantly deride Kotsay will stand up for Loe. Who here doesn't groan when Loe is put into the game when it's tied or the Brewers have a one or two run lead? I honestly think that it's because one has a positive WAR, and one has a negative WAR.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Raw Biz First Round Pick

Raw Biz

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Seriously, I can't understand how some of the same people who constantly deride Kotsay will stand up for Loe. Who here doesn't groan when Loe is put into the game when it's tied or the Brewers have a one or two run lead? I honestly think that it's because one has a positive WAR, and one has a negative WAR.

I personally don't ever really look at WAR that much. I don't think Loe is amazing but I do think he can be a solid bullpen pitcher when used correctly (against righties, not 3 days in a row). I wouldn't use him over Hawkins, Saito, or KRod (unless they've pitched multiple days in a row) but he is still a useful pitcher. And despite Kotsay's solid week filling in for Braun, I still think he is basically worthless, especially the way he is used on this team. So that's how I can deride Kotsay and stand up for Loe. One is useful when used correctly and the other has basically no use at all.

On a side note, after wearing 75 last night, KRod has switched to 57. I wonder what Stetter will wear if/when he gets called back?
This is Jack Burton in the Pork Chop Express, and I'm talkin' to whoever's listenin' out there.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing
The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund
The Brewer Fanatic Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Brewers community on the internet. Included with caretaking is ad-free browsing of Brewer Fanatic.

Become a Caretaker
×
×
  • Create New...