K-Rod (and cash) acquired; The cost? LH reliever Daniel Ray Herrera and low-A RHP Adrian Rosario

[RockCoCougars]

i'm trying to remember when a major league player (i.e. a player on the 40-man roster) became a player to be named later in a trade.

 

i consider minor leaguers players not on a major league contract. doug melvin has been saying all along that the players are minor leaguers. if the mets were getting players from the 40-man roster, wouldn't they want them now (seeing as the majority of them have major league experience)?

Back in the day when Charlie O'Brien was traded to the Mets, both Julio Machado and Kevin Brown were PTNLs. I'm guessing that both were on the Mets 40 man at the time.

[greeg35]

man, I thought Machado was good...I still think he was. Is he out of prison yet?

edit, got my own answer:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julio_Machado

[Kelbysdaddy]

the is no way gamel is one of the ptbnl... right after the deal happened melvin said they wont be any of the "top" guys. it will be one of stetter/parra/mcclendon/kintzler/dillard/difelice maybe even nieves/rivera/almonte/boggs(unlikely a position player) and a c-b prospect. this was simply so the mets wouldnt have to deal with the option and a pissed off benched closer.

[FVBrewerFan]

Wow, it took a Mets fan to put this in perspective. 20 pages and I'm still seeing names like Gamel. McClendon/Fiers is exactly the type of players we're talking about as the PTBNL. One AAAA type of player and one guy from the lower minors that is not a huge prospect.

 

I saw Stetter's name come up a lot, and that won't happen either. Brewers don't have many options for LHP out of the bullpen, DM certainly isn't going to trade away a guy who may help the team during a pennant drive.

[Raw Biz]

I saw Stetter's name come up a lot, and that won't happen either. Brewers don't have many options for LHP out of the bullpen, DM certainly isn't going to trade away a guy who may help the team during a pennant drive.

What about trading FOR a guy who will help, like KRod? I'm not saying it's going to be Stetter but it could be and it could be McClendon, another guy who could help the Brewers. I know we didn't have to give up a lot but we did have to give up something and Stetter/McClendon could realistically be pieces. To just dismiss that outright is wrong IMO.

[Raw Biz]

i'm trying to remember when a major league player (i.e. a player on the 40-man roster) became a player to be named later in a trade.

 

i consider minor leaguers players not on a major league contract. doug melvin has been saying all along that the players are minor leaguers. if the mets were getting players from the 40-man roster, wouldn't they want them now (seeing as the majority of them have major league experience)?

From the Minor League Spec thread, courtesy of the Mets fan:

-Chris Perez was a PTBNL in the Mark DeRosa trade from the Indians to the Cards a few years back. The rumor was the Cards gave them the choice of Perez or Motte (who I believe were both in the majors at the time, or at least had been at some point...which was OK, because of the silly rules involving "switching leagues" with PTBNLs), so they used some time to scout both more extensively

-Micah Owings, who started 18 games for the DBacks that year, went from arizona to the Reds in the Adam Dunn deal as a PTBNL

-Sean Rodriguez was a PTBNL for the Rays in the Scott Kazmir deal

Like with minor leaguers, sometimes teams just want a little more time to scout the players. In the Perez case, it seemed to have worked.

[LouisEly]

In this article on JSOnline it says that Alderson is the person who instigated the trade - he called Melvin, not vice versa:

 

http://www.jsonline.com/s...s/brewers/125539643.html

 

So Melvin wasn't proactively looking to improve the bullpen; he just decided to take the call from Alderson, listened, and found the deal too good to pass up.

[GamelToe]

If we're giving up two McClendon types, then this deal is highly successful (assuming K-Rod's option won't vest). Amazing. Compare it to the Linebrink deal.

[topper09er]

Here is one thing that concerned me a little bit, the other closer free agents this winter:

 

Heath Bell (34)

Jonathan Broxton (28)

Matt Capps (28)

Francisco Cordero (37) - $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Frank Francisco (32)

Brad Lidge (35) - $12.5MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout

Joe Nathan (37) - $12.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout

Jonathan Papelbon (31)

Jon Rauch (33) - $3.75MM club option with a $250K buyout

Francisco Rodriguez (30) - $17.5MM club/vesting option with a $3.5MM buyout

Rafael Soriano (32) - $11MM player option or a $1.5MM buyout

Jose Valverde (34) - $9MM club option, no buyout

 

There are a ton of big name guys there, maybe making it better for K-Rod to accept arby for 1 year and then compete with this 2013 FA class:

 

David Aardsma (30)

Kevin Gregg (35) - $6MM club/vesting option

Brandon Lyon (33)

Leo Nunez (29)

J.J. Putz (36) - $6.5MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout

Mariano Rivera (43)

Joakim Soria (29) - $8MM club option with a $750K buyout

Huston Street (29) - $9MM mutual option with a $500K buyout if club declines

 

Rivera will either retire or remain a Yankee and I would think who ever trades for Soria this year/next year would pick up that option leaving K-Rod, only still 31 in the 2012 off season, looking a lot better.

 

I think that in general he will reject arby because it would mean he would remain as a setup man with us.

[Hate those Rodents]

Well, if the (second) worst scenario came about and he accepted, we'd have a heck of a trade chip in Axford and could then look into KROD closing next year and worrying about our 2013 closer at a later date (maybe Bradock by then).

[Raw Biz]

Heath Bell (34) -- If traded, might be resigned by whoever trades for him.

Jonathan Broxton (28) -- Declining skills/injured past 2 years, don't know if he's an upgrade over KRod.

Matt Capps (28) -- Doesn't K too many guys so some might not consider him an upgrade.

Francisco Cordero (37) - $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout -- getting up there in age

Frank Francisco (32) -- Has pretty good stuff but again, may not be upgrade over KRod.

Brad Lidge (35) - $12.5MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout -- aging again, plus injury

Joe Nathan (37) - $12.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout -- same as above.

Jonathan Papelbon (31) -- probably resigned.

Jon Rauch (33) - $3.75MM club option with a $250K buyout -- Again, probably not an upgrade.

Francisco Rodriguez (30) - $17.5MM club/vesting option with a $3.5MM buyout

Rafael Soriano (32) - $11MM player option or a $1.5MM buyout -- Hasn't done much this year so may not be an upgrade.

Jose Valverde (34) - $9MM club option, no buyout -- Having a pretty good year, option probably picked up.

KRod is younger than all but 2 on this list. He may not be the same pitcher he was a few years ago but he's still probably better than at least half this list. A lot of these guys are older and/or coming off injuries, so they may not get anymore than a 1 or 2 year deal. I think a team who is serious about competing could sign KRod to a decent-sized contract. He won't touch the 17.5 option but he could get something like 3/36, especially with Boras as his agent. I think the extra years would be worth it to him and Boras instead of taking the one year arbitration and having to set-up.

[Warning Track Power]

Apparently K-Rod's missing 10 team no trade list had the Brewers on it...(5th tweet or so down).

 

This should be interesting...

[bucksman4]

Great find by Heyman but this is meaningless now. K-Rod will play the good-guy role and not burn any bridges with Milwaukee. This clubhouse is too tight-knit and focused on making the playoffs, that a malcontent would not be tolerated.

[TooLiveBrew]

direct link to said tweet

 

 

Great find by Heyman

 

Fwiw, Heyman's got the reputation of being a Boras mouthpiece

[Invader3K]

It was previously said Rodriguez probably would have approved the trade anyway since the Brewers are in contention.

[gregmag]

I don't care what an abstract stat says, putting Loe in the 8th inning has cost us around ten games this year. That boneheaded move has hurt us more than anything else this season, and it hopefully will be cured with this acquisition.

You wrote a great post, and I agree with most of what you said (FWIW), but this statement floored me. This is why I almost always wince when somebody says, "I don't care what any stat says, here's what I know."

 

You're saying that, if RR had put somebody (anybody?) other than Loe in as our 8th inning guy, we would be ten games better. We would be 59-33, the best team in baseball, a game and a half better than the Phillies, with at least a ten-game lead over St. Louis, if only Loe had not pitched the 8th inning. Our (lack of) hitting and defense had nothing to do with those losses, and whoever you would have put into those games instead of Loe would have gotten the job done every time. That's mind-boggling. Has any relief pitcher -- heck, any player -- ever hurt a team that much? In a half season?

 

You're also saying, with absolute certainty or at least great confidence, that Loe's 8th inning ineptitude has cost us more than starting offensive and defensive black holes at 3b and ss -- which you know, how?

 

With all due respect, and as smart as you and most other people on this board are, this is exactly why I put close to zero stock in anybody's tossed-off assertions, and why I put quite a bit of stock (though not anything close to absolute faith) in the compilations of information that we call "stats."

[patrickgpe]

i think Loe has been mismanaged, and definitely cost us some wins, I'll point to the 3rd and 4th of July as possible examples, but 10 is very high. Plus there has been other factors in even those games. Maybe we can point at 2 or 3 wins max that we would have been better. Also don't forget that until Hawk and Saito came back, RR had few options for an 8th inning guy.

[topper09er]

II don't care what an abstract stat says, putting Loe in the 8th inning has cost us around ten games this year. That boneheaded move has hurt us more than anything else this season, and it hopefully will be cured with this acquisition.

First of all WAR is not an abstract stat at all, you can easily take the time to learn how it is calculated. People do not just watch games and then arbitrarily assign some WAR to every player based on their guts.

 

You are saying if we replaced Loe in these 10 losses with anyone they would have been perfect and turned all those games from losses into wins. You are also neglecting the fact the Loe has appeared in 46 games, so if he had a negative impact in 10 then he had a positive impact in 36, thus negating some of his negative value in those 10 losses. You cant say he has cost us 10 games without acknowledging he may have helped us win 36 games.

 

What you are doing is essentially making up your own abstract stat, WAP, or Wins Above Perfect. You are saying Loe has a -10 WAP, but since we have 43 team losses who are you crediting solely with the other losses? If Ryan Braun would just hit a HR every game that would give us likely 10 more wins at least, so Braun also has a -10WAP. Same with Fielder and the rest of the lineup? The Brewers are only 8-11 in games Marcum has started, so if he would have just thrown a shutout every outing he wouldn't have cost us those 11 games, -11 WAP right there. If you keep doing this you realize that by your method the team should have about 200 losses by now, but instead we don't so you have to distribute responsibility for the losses across the whole team. No players are perfect so it is silly to compare them to that, I posted it somewhere earlier in this thread, but the Brewers have 20 relief losses, most in the NL. The Phillies have the least with 10 and the league average is 15. You need to expect a certain amount of losses, just like you need to expect Ryan Braun to strikeout a certain number of times.

 

WAR does the opposite and compares players to a league minimum level of play, and according to that Loe is at only 0.1 which is saying he has had a bad year, but Yuni and McGehee are both below 0.

[scrapiron]

I don't care what an abstract stat says, putting Loe in the 8th inning has cost us around ten games this year. That boneheaded move has hurt us more than anything else this season, and it hopefully will be cured with this acquisition.

Actually going over the game log the count is 8, with three of those losses he's been tagged with being two 2-1 losses and one 1-0 loss. I blame the offense in those contests more than Loe. Sometime Loe has been REALLY bad this year, but 10 losses is extreme beyond belief.

[FoxyFoxes]

I have never been more excited for a middle releiever to get his first action with the Brewers...............and if it happens tonight i won't get to see it livehttp://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif. I played the Rockies today on xbox and had a perfect 7-8-9 with Loe KROD (who i manually added) and Axford. (IN THAT ORDER RRR). Let me add in my franchise Saito had pitched 2 straight days, can't be having that so brought in Loe as my "seventh inning guy".

 

Anyway back to things that matter......the Dodgers seriously just offered me a trade for Furcal. Weird..

[Raw Biz]

I have never been more excited for a middle releiever to get his first action with the Brewers...............and if it happens tonight i won't get to see it livehttp://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif. I played the Rockies today on xbox and had a perfect 7-8-9 with Loe KROD (who i manually added) and Axford. (IN THAT ORDER RRR). Let me add in my franchise Saito had pitched 2 straight days, can't be having that so brought in Loe as my "seventh inning guy".

 

Anyway back to things that matter......the Dodgers seriously just offered me a trade for Furcal. Weird..

Maybe your XBox is like Surf Ninjas where the kid's Game Gear tells the future.

[endaround]

One measure would be Loe's WPA of -1.34. Basically you can blame Loe (and RRR) for about 1.34 loses. Estrada is at -1.30. Yuni is at a mind blowing -2.11 (and this is just his bat!). There is just no way to parse things that doesn't make Yuni the biggest issue on the team.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I read that K-Rod can waive the $17.5mm option and since the Brewers have no intention of exercising it, would he strike an agreement with the Brewers to waive the clause in exchange for not offering him arby? The Brewers may take it since it removes any doubt about the clause and they can use him as they see fit. K-Rod's price may go up next year as he's unencumbered by the draft choices and he could also get more save opportunities to prove his worth. Just curious.

[JoeHova]

Having K-Rod as the closer could be beneficial but only if Roenicke were to use Axford when his best reliever was needed and not in a strict 8th inning role. I don't believe Roenicke would use Axford like that so I would rather they just use John as the closer and Frankie as the set-up guy.

[Raw Biz]

I read that K-Rod can waive the $17.5mm option and since the Brewers have no intention of exercising it, would he strike an agreement with the Brewers to waive the clause in exchange for not offering him arby? The Brewers may take it since it removes any doubt about the clause and they can use him as they see fit. K-Rod's price may go up next year as he's unencumbered by the draft choices and he could also get more save opportunities to prove his worth. Just curious.

I'm sure they could do that but I don't really know why the Brewers would (unless they are really scared of Axford getting hurt or something). The vesting option is entirely in the Brewers control because they can determine how to use him. The extra picks would definitely be nice, especially if he signed with a team in the top half of the standings (1st rd v. 2nd rd pick). Like others, I don't see him accepting arbitration because A) he's a Boras client, B) wants to get at least one more big contract, and C) he doesn't want to be a setup guy, which the Brewers could tell him he would be since they have Axford. Basically it would probably be beneficial to KRod to waive the clause because he might get more save chances that way (though I still think Axford would since he's pitched better the last two years) but wouldn't be to the Brewers because they would lose out on 2 possible picks.