K-Rod (and cash) acquired; The cost? LH reliever Daniel Ray Herrera and low-A RHP Adrian Rosario

[LouisEly]

Here is the NL relief pitching only stats. We do lead the league with 20 Lgr (relief losses) but as you can see the average is 15, you cant look at that 20 number and expect it to be close to 0. So that is 5 games lost above average our bullpen has cost us. For example Yuni right now is at 18.2 runs below average and Casey is 17.4 runs below average which combined accounts for about 4 wins below average between them.

Thank you for posting this. Should also note that the talent level in the bullpen would seem to indicate that they could improve going forward. The talent level at shortstop would certainly not lend itself to much improvement and third base isn't much better than that.

I guess I'm confused by two things:

 

1) How is the "talent" level of the bullpen indicative that they can improve, but McGehee's numbers the last two seasons (.859, .801) are not indicative that he can improve? By "talent" are you referring to Loe, who has had one good season in the majors (two if you want to go back to 2005) - doesn't 2010 seem to be more the exception than the norm for him? Are you referring to Estrada, who has had zero good seasons in the majors? Are you referring to Saito, who is 41 and can't stay healthy? Is Hawkins going to improve on his 1.08 ERA and 1.12 WHIP? I get the doubt that Betancourt will improve, but McGehee has a better ML track record to suggest improvement than most of the bullpen.

 

B) Why are position players compared only to players of the same position for WAR, but all relievers are lumped together? I think it's pretty clear that relievers have specific roles now, and you shouldn't lump closers in the same bucket with mop-up guys, long relievers, and LOOGYs. Maybe Loe is +0.4 WAR (really hard to believe a guy with 7 losses and 6 blown saves halfway through a season is +0.4 WAR) compared to all relievers, but that comparison shouldn't be made. He needs to be compared to other setup men because that was his role. You don't compare SS to 3B just because they are on the same side of the infield; you shouldn't compare all relievers.

 

Here's my half-rear-ended comparison (and no, I don't care about FIP, xFIP, blah, blah, it's late and I want to go to bed). Loe's ERA is 4.50; that means over say 72 innings a season he will give up 36 earned runs. K-Rod has an ERA of 3.16; that means over those same 72 innings he will give up 25.25 runs, a difference of almost 11 runs. Isn't that pretty close to the run differential that is estimated for McGehee and Yuni? Now, here's the fun part - given their specific roles, few of those 72 innings will be in situations where the Brewers will be > 4 runs from their opponents, often 2 runs or less. So those runs are far more important than the run differential of McGehee or Betancourt, which may be games that are close and may be games where they lose 12-2 to the Yankees or 12-3 to the Reds or Red Sox or beat the Astros 14-7 or the Nationals 11-3. Loe or K-Rod aren't pitching in those games.

[TheCrew07]

Don't forget that Melvin said earlier that it wasn't one of the top prospects. So there is no way it's Gamel. If that quote from Sandy Alderson above is correct, it almost has to be Kintzler or Stetter. Parra could be added to that list, but the statement "he could have a role with us right away" kind of eliminates him.

Or McClendon.

But would McClendon be able to pitch for them right away? I was under the impression that since he's on the 40 man, he wouldn't be able to pitch for them. Is that an incorrect understanding?

 

No, any player on the 40 man simply cannot be called up to the active roster prior to the trade. After the trade for each player is completed, the Mets can do whatever they want with each guy.

 

edit: Meaning if McClendon is the guy the Brewers won't be able to add him to the active roster and then still trade him to the Mets. See this post.

[logan82]

Loe has been misused. Hawkins has been little used. Saito has been unavailable. Proper use of the guys we had should have led to a more effective pen. Getting K-Rod is nice and will help. Whether it is a good deal is totally dependent on what we had to give up and whether his option vests.

 

The pen is about 4th or 5th on the list of positions I would have been worried about.

[gobrew23]

The pen is about 4th or 5th on the list of positions I would have been worried about.

 

 

4th or 5th?? Just curious, but what other positions are of more concern for you if the bullpen is maybe 5th on your list?

[MarquesJohnson2000]

Belling's "analysis" of this deal was painful to listen to. He seems to be under the impression that the Brewers are paying K-Rod's ENTIRE 2011 salary, and that the deal is the precursor to trading Axford for a "major" 3B and SS.

 

Yikes. Some of the callers tried to set him straight but none of the ones I heard challenged his "spending $10M on a new closer" comment.

[GamelToe]

SS is the only need I saw before bullpen. But, that being said, I think SS is a FAR bigger need than relief pitching. If Yuni B is our SS in August, then acquiring Marcum/Greinke/K-Rod was for nothing. He's, sadly, that terrible.

[PrinceEatMeat]

SS is the only need I saw before bullpen. But, that being said, I think SS is a FAR bigger need than relief pitching. If Yuni B is our SS in August, then acquiring Marcum/Greinke/K-Rod was for nothing. He's, sadly, that terrible.

I agree that SS is a big need, but saying that not replacing Betancourt negates all the pitching improvements is way overblown. Without pitching we would go nowhere, and be nowhere. Winning starts with good pitching, which is why a reliever was top priority. A SS will put us over the top in my opinion, but it's certainly not a make or break situation either. I think Doug will bring a SS in, so I'm not worried.

[bigredrobbo]

Belling's "analysis" of this deal was painful to listen to. He seems to be under the impression that the Brewers are paying K-Rod's ENTIRE 2011 salary, and that the deal is the precursor to trading Axford for a "major" 3B and SS.

 

Yikes. Some of the callers tried to set him straight but none of the ones I heard challenged his "spending $10M on a new closer" comment.

Belling's a tool on non-baseball issues, but takes it to a new level regarding the Brewers.

[MoreTrife]

There is no way it;s Gamel if Melvin gave the list especially with our future 1st Baseman.

Absolutely...at least it is just such a horrible move it can't be. If Melvin did this he should be fired immediately. What is the backup plan at first with no Gamel? A Kotsay like late30s veteran.

[Mr QL]

I'm still uneasy with this trade until we figure out who we're giving up and what role K-Rod is put in. This could be a disastrous if we give up Gamel and put him in a closer role. I don't trust Roenicke to not use him as a closer.

[MoreTrife]

I know Roenicke's comments may just be managerial speak and bland PR, but I really don't like the way this is being handled. Co-closers is being blasted everywhere and reiterated by RRR. What in the world makes him think that will work? Axford has closed 20 in a row and all of a sudden he is a co-closer?

 

They SHOULD just come out and say, "Listen, Axford is our closer. k-Rod will get some games to close due to Axford being overworked but John Axford is out closer."

 

Why even mess around talking about co-closer. Killing me.

[steve267268]

everyone needs to relax about this..

 

this trade doesn't make it harder to acquire a SS.

 

this trade is good.

 

go to bed.

[TurkWendell]

Hey guys-

I posted in the thread on the minor league side, but figured I'd weigh in here too. I'm a Mets fan (come in peace, I promise).

Given Sandy's comments yesterday, and the help from some of your board members over in that thread, McClendon seems most likely, while Gamel remains the Mets' fan obvious "mark" (and obviously the opposite on your end!). Herrera doesn't make sense as he's been on waivers twice this year and the Mets passed, including just a week ago- if they really wanted him, they could have had him for nothing. The injured guys don't really make sense either due to the whole "role right away with us" thing, and even a guy like Stetter, ignoring the injury thing, who is 30, doesn't make a ton of sense (if the Mets really wanted an older LOOGy, they have Justin Hampson, Mike O'Connor and Taylor Tankersley on their AAA team they could just call up).

As far as some of those other role players: not sure how they would fit in right away. Brandon Boggs- not exactly a guy who you would push Scott Hairston off the roster for, no? Ditto Brett Carroll. And while the Mets could definitely use some young catching depth, I don't think mid-30's backups like Mike Rivera or Wil Nieves would be something of interest, or something you'd push Ronny Paulino off the roster for.

Their is definitely a dearth of relievers in our upper system, which is why McClendon makes sense, and even though we're pretty good at 1B/3B, certainly Gamel would be taking "Best Player Available". The others, I just don't see (we'll see, though). I'll be monitoring the transaction wire, and let you guys know if we hear anything else on our end.

Thanks. As an FYI, Michael Fiers is a guy most Met fans have their eye on as well as hopefully being on that list- how do you guys feel about him. Most scouting reports say average or worse stuff, but obviously great results thus far, so could be an undervalued kind of guy, especially considering his age.

[theavrock]

Not that I have a lot of faith in anything the "analysts" of ESPN, Kurkjian was just on and said the prospects on the list "were not significant players."

Further evidence to confirm what we have thought.

[monty57]

I know it's already 20 pages in, but I'll throw in my two cents:

 

1) First off, great trade. We've always been on the opposite side of these deals, or we've watched bigger money teams taking from the smaller market teams (the Aramis Ramirez & Kenny Lofton for Bobby Hill trade comes to mind), so it's good to see Milwaukee getting one over on New York.

 

2) Sure SS and 3B may be more pressing needs, but we just got a significant upgrade for basically nothing. Having K-Rod and Axford also means that Loe should definitely not see the 8th inning in close games. I don't care what an abstract stat says, putting Loe in the 8th inning has cost us around ten games this year. That boneheaded move has hurt us more than anything else this season, and it hopefully will be cured with this acquisition.

 

3) By costing us almost nothing (monetarily or in top prospects), we should still have the ability to add a SS, and this trade just verified to me that Melvin isn't blind to our problems, and will work to correct them. If we could use the same financial leverege to land Reyes or Furcal, I'd be thrilled. Just getting an average player will help the team substantially.

 

4) As to why the Mets would do this, I'll give my best "real world example." Assume you and your spouse have good jobs and have taken on payments for a house, cars, RVs, motorcycles, you name it. Now you lose your job, and you can no longer make all the payments. You may very well be willing to give the motorcycles, RVs and anything else away to anyone who will take over the payments just so you don't go into bankruptcy. You're willing to take some losses to save more important assets. Certainly not a perfect comparison, but the Mets owners lost money in the Madoff fiasco and now are in financial trouble. The "toys" they bought a few years ago are too expensive for them now, so they need to divest themselves of some of the expensive ones in order to not lose the franchise.

[dlk9s]

For all those who are all upset about not trying to improve SS or 3B first, keep in mind that Alderson was the one who called Melvin about this. That's not to say that Melvin wasn't looking into bullpen help, but this opportunity basically fell into his lap and it was an opportunity that was too good to pass up. Assuming K-Rod performs like he can (we all know he's not what he once was, but he's still good), this will help the team a lot.

[LouisEly]

Turk, thanks for your input. IIRC, the book on Fiers is that while he doesn't have a lot of velocity he has a lot of movement on his pitches and very good control. I'm not saying he's the second coming of this guy, but another guy who didn't have a lot of velocity but lots of movement and great control is Greg Maddux.

[Invader3K]

Turk, thanks for your input. IIRC, the book on Fiers is that while he doesn't have a lot of velocity he has a lot of movement on his pitches and very good control. I'm not saying he's the second coming of this guy, but another guy who didn't have a lot of velocity but lots of movement and great control is Greg Maddux.

Wasn't Fiers throwing in the mid '90s last year? Has his velocity gone down since then? I remember seeing him throw during Spring Training last year and thinking he had very good velocity.

[TurkWendell]

The scouting reports that I read yesterday when researching Fiers said 88-92, and if I've learned anything following multiple disappointing prospects from the Mets' system, its that you should always believe the bottom end of any radar range reported on draft day or throughout the minors. Until a guy has a pitchFX gun on him, I always remain skeptical as a matter of principle.

 

For instance, Mike Pelfrey was said to be 92-97 with heavy sink when we drafted him. Anyone who watches "Big Pelf" these days knows he is (and really always has been) more 89-92, occassionally touching 93-94, with pretty moderate sink.

 

But you guys would probably know better. With his results, though, if had had dominant stuff to match, I'd think he'd be more of a top prospect. I didn't see him ranked any higher than at the back end of your Top 10, and like us (Mets), I think you're system is in the bottom 1/3 of the league, so obviously not a lot of scouting love there for Fiers (which I never put too much credence in anyway). We Met fans were looking at him as another Dillon Gee type- dunno if you guys know who he is, but he's acting as our 5th starter right now, was a ~20th round pick a few years ago, always put up pretty nice numbers plus underlying peripherals to back them up, but scouting reports always cautioned he was pitching above his stuff and would eventually catch up to him. But now he's 8-3 with a 3.7 ERA at the ASB, after throwing up an ERA in the 2's in his September debut last year. His career 3.9 FIP vs his 3.3 ERA says he's had SOME luck to date, but not a ton. Anyway, thats our best comp for Fiers in our heads, so yeah, he's a target of Met fans.

[logan82]

The pen is about 4th or 5th on the list of positions I would have been worried about.

 

 

4th or 5th?? Just curious, but what other positions are of more concern for you if the bullpen is maybe 5th on your list?

3B, SS and bench off the top of my head. SS being the only one of the 3 we can't upgrade internally.

 

Sure SS and 3B may be more pressing needs, but we just got a significant upgrade for basically nothing.

There is no way we can say that until we know the players involved.

[Tedaldtada]

Fiers basically sits at 90. But he knows how to pitch or whatever they say about guys without good velocity.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Fiers is older, but has pitched very well; he's one of those minor leaguers we tend to get attached to and root for as he has seemingly come from nowhere, but he'll need to prove himself at every step. He wasn't, for example, in the BA top 30, though that was before the Grienke and Marcum deals, and he might have cracked the top 30 after that. I think Gee is a decent comp, in the sense of a righty starter without flashy stuff but with good K rate and overall results. (When I see Gee, I want his first name to be "wendell," not based on your namesake Turk, but on the REM song.)

 

Fiers has had a decent HR rate as well, but that might be a mirage as he's not an extreme groundball guy, and has played in places like Brevard. I think HRs are a potential issue for Gee? Some have compared him to Dave Bush, who was a serviceable pitcher for us for several years, but a higher-profile guy in the draft etc.

[TurkWendell]

Fiers is older, but has pitched very well; he's one of those minor leaguers we tend to get attached to and root for as he has seemingly come from nowhere, but he'll need to prove himself at every step. He wasn't, for example, in the BA top 30, though that was before the Grienke and Marcum deals, and he might have cracked the top 30 after that. I think Gee is a decent comp, in the sense of a righty starter without flashy stuff but with good K rate and overall results. (When I see Gee, I want his first name to be "wendell," not based on your namesake Turk, but on the REM song.)

 

Fiers has had a decent HR rate as well, but that might be a mirage as he's not an extreme groundball guy, and has played in places like Brevard. I think HRs are a potential issue for Gee? Some have compared him to Dave Bush, who was a serviceable pitcher for us for several years, but a higher-profile guy in the draft etc.

HRs are a potential issue for NOBODY when you throw half your games in Citifield http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

But, on a serious note, yeah Gee's HR rates in the upper minors weren't great (1.2 per 9 in AAA after not going above .4 per 9 at the lower levels), but in the majors so far, they've been excellent (just .6 per 9). Of course, that's helped by a 6% HR/FB rate, which may be unsustainable, but again, with Citifield, maybe not.

 

[Raw Biz]

I'm still uneasy with this trade until we figure out who we're giving up and what role K-Rod is put in. This could be a disastrous if we give up Gamel and put him in a closer role. I don't trust Roenicke to not use him as a closer.

99% sure it's not Gamel. Melvin already said it's not a top prospect. It would be one thing if he didn't say anything or if he danced around the question but he said it wasn't a top prospect. He knows (or should) that he would be killed by fans if he traded Gamel after saying a top prospect wasn't invovled. Also 99% sure that KRod's option will not vest. The guy has to finish 21 games for the rest of the year. Sure he could wind up finishing 10-15 games and that would be cutting it close but Attanasio, Melvin, Roenicke, et. al know the situation. They can't come out and say we're not going let the option vest because they would have to face the union (that's why the Mets didn't just demote KRod to a setup role).

They are also likely saying that KRod will close some to keep him happy. I'm sure Melvin has had conversations with Boras about this already and Boras is looking to show that KRod can still be a good closer so he can get one more big deal in the offseason. By allowing him to close a few games (without the option vesting), KRod can show off his skills while the Brewers don't have to worry about the option.

I think everyone is uneasy because they can't believe we got a once-dominant closer without having to pay much in salary and in prospects. Well, believe it. Like others have said, this was purely financial. I posted an article from May a few pages back that specifically says the Mets would be best off trading KRod to anyone willing to take him, even if they got nothing in return. The vesting option is insane and nobody wanted to have to pay that. There also weren't many teams with established closers willing to take on any extra money or even the slight risk that the option would vest. And as good as KRod can be, he isn't the same guy who closed for the Angels. So everyone should just enjoy the trade and rest easy that we really didn't have to give up much. (If both 1% scenarios happen -- Gamel traded and option vests -- you may never hear from me again).

[djoctagone]

i'm trying to remember when a major league player (i.e. a player on the 40-man roster) became a player to be named later in a trade.

 

i consider minor leaguers players not on a major league contract. doug melvin has been saying all along that the players are minor leaguers. if the mets were getting players from the 40-man roster, wouldn't they want them now (seeing as the majority of them have major league experience)?