K-Rod (and cash) acquired; The cost? LH reliever Daniel Ray Herrera and low-A RHP Adrian Rosario

[jpat]

Adam McCalvey's Twitter:

RRR says both K-Rod and @JohnAxford will close, and both will set-up. I'll have a story with his comments on Brewers.com.

Arrggghhh!!!! Only RRR could screw this up. And since K-Rod is a former Angel, nothing he does wrong will demote him from partial closing duties.

Hey Ron, what happened to having an "8th inning guy?"

[fondybrewfan]

I think Mark A might have a little chat with RR if that option comes close to vesting. Mark A won't sit idly by while a manager costs him $14 Million for no good reason.

[ramssuperbowl99]

Agreed, but that doesn't mean your "best pitcher" will be the same guy every time the lead is 3 runs or less in the 9th.

Care to tell me when K-Rod is better than John Axford?

All of last year?

 

Otherwise, I would say if Axford starts to struggle, or if Axford has pitched three days in a row. I also think there are situations where putting in a LOOGY to close is putting out your best pitcher. It always depends on the situation. Saying there is only one best pitcher all the time and leaving it at that, in my opinion, doesn't give the team the best chance of winning.

Definitely not. Axford was better than K-Rod last year. The only reason his ERA is (marginally better) than Axford's is because he stranded an unsustainable amount of runners.

As for the other situations:

1. Axford struggling - Hasn't ever happened in his career, and no reason to really assume it should. Either way, no reason for RRR to mention shared duties until Axford starts to struggle. If I remember right every time fans asked who was pitching the 8th inning earlier in the year we were given a stone-faced look at the reply that Kam was our "8th inning guy".

2. I'd agree with the resting Ax once in a while thing. That would make sense. However, that's not what RRR said - he said each will set up and close. That is, that he will choose K-Rod over a rested/able to pitch Axford on occasions.

3. I agree with the LOOGY, but in this case both pitchers can pitch to lefties and righties so the platoon split argument isn't overly relevant.

While I get, and agree with, your overarching point (namely that situational use of relievers is great) making your best reliever a set up man is just foolish. While I'd love to see Ax on in the 7th with 1 out and the bases loaded protecting leads and stranding runners, I know that won't happen. The next best thing would be to pitch him in high leverage situations at the end of the game.

 

[Bombers]

KRod to be on a SportsNet New York (SNY) in 25 Min

http://www.metsblog.com/2011/07/13/k-rod-conference-call-with-sandy-at-330-pm-on-sny/

 

Not sure if there is a webcast of it, but I would be curious what he says about the trade

[steve267268]

If you listen to the Doug Melvin interview, what RRR said makes a lot of sense. When he was asked about who would close, and what role KRod would have, DM answered with "we aren't going to get into all of that" or something to that effect. No one from the organization is going to come out and say that they will limit him to avoid his vesting option. As stated before, the union would have a big problem with this. So it does seem that there are clear instructions from the top down to make this situation as ambiguous as possible in the media..

 

However, if John Axford is still the closer, why can't they just come out and say "Axford has performed at an extremely high level, he's been our guy, he will continue to be our guy. K Rod will be the setup man." There has got to be some element of truth to K Rod closing..

 

Perhaps:

 

KRod expressed the desire to close a significant amount of games to DM when they talked. Mayb they will start by giving him 2 out of every 5 and then work that number down to 1 out of 5 and then none unless an emergency just to appease him.

[endaround]

All of last year?

 

Otherwise, I would say if Axford starts to struggle, or if Axford has pitched three days in a row. I also think there are situations where putting in a LOOGY to close is putting out your best pitcher. It always depends on the situation. Saying there is only one best pitcher all the time and leaving it at that, in my opinion, doesn't give the team the best chance of winning.

Not really.

Rodriguez 2010: 2.63 FIP 3.16 xFIP

Axford 2010: 2.13 FIP 2.79 xFIP

Saito 2010 2.43 FIP 2.69xFIP

The Brewers have two pitchers who were better than Rodriguez last year and a healthy Saito might still be better this year. I think people don't fully realize just how good Saito is.

[jmeks23]

There's really no need to worry you guys. The Brewers are simply being politicians. They don't have the 17.5 million to give the K-Rod and Axford has saved 20 in a row and 23 out of 24. No possible way Axford isn't the closer. K-Rod will only get games where Axford can't be used or already has been used (extra inning game).

[pitchleague]

okay, just playing a hypothetical game here, but let's say K-Rod is (somehow) at 54 games finished during the last week of the season.

 

Scenario A: The Brewers are comfortably in first place with a playoff spot clinched. I would assume that K-Rod would be "shut down" from pitching in the 8th inning on, but what if he's used and gets a game finished? Argh, that'd be stupid.

 

Scenario B: The Brewers are still fighting for the division in the final week. I would assume in this scenario that, like in "The Blues Brothers", the use of unnecessary use of force in using K-Rod has been approved. Mark A. would probably say it's worth it in this case, don't you think?

 

Scenario C: The Brewers have been eliminated from the post-season. K-Rod "decides" that he is going to pitch the 9th inning no matter what and locks every other reliever in the bullpen bathroom to make sure he finishes the game. (Sorry, I was actually looking for a way for him to intentionally blow an 8th inning lead on the road so he'd be the finishing pitcher, but the Brewers finish the last week of the season at home so it couldn't really happen. Still, what if he did get close to the vesting option and started pulling shenanigans to get to 55 games finished? How bad would he look in the eyes of fans and the media? (his teammates, although some would be appalled, would probably praise him for his ingenuity.)

 

Okay, my lunch is over. Time to do other stuff now.

[rluzinski]

It certainly eats up a portion of whatever finite financial resources Melvin has to play with. Perhaps Melvin already has a plan for upgrading SS but if he doesn't, his options are more limited now than they were before. There's really no way around that.

 

Sure there is- Mark A tells Melvin to upgrade SS, and cost is no object. As I said, people keep trying to quantify what the Brewers have available to spend as some sort of 'hard' cap number, while Mark A has consistently gone over and above those expectations in his time here. Until he publicly says 'we can only spend x at the deadline this year,' we have no way of knowing what Melvin REALLY has available to him.

I wasn't suggesting that I know how much more Melvin has to spend. That would be pure speculation. I said that whatever he goes have has a limit. I guess that the ownership group could allocate X for a a relief upgrade and Y for SS but that would seem a poor way to allocate dollars.

Cost is no object? That phrase is only used when discussing hypotheticals.

 

[FVBrewerFan]

 

KRod expressed the desire to close a significant amount of games to DM when they talked. Mayb they will start by giving him 2 out of every 5 and then work that number down to 1 out of 5 and then none unless an emergency just to appease him.

 

 

---

---

So he's a team player. A guy getting traded negotiates his closing role? If that's true, it bothers me.

[MoreTrife]

I know there are have been assurances that it won't be Thornburg or our "top guys" but to Melvin I'm thinking he believes we only worry about 3-4 guys (Gamel, Rogers, Green maybe)...I'm still really worried.

 

Please do NOT let it be:

Green, Gindl, Heckathorn, Morris, Scarpetta, Peralta, really anyone.

 

I just don't like it. I know a lot of guys care not for amorphous "chemistry" but the thought of axford getting screwed up is really worrying. and pressure on RRR to insert k rod after one or two Ax blown saves.

[steve267268]

topper09er]

The bullpen has 20 losses already at this point. That's huge at this

point in the season. In nearly every case, that means that either a

lead or tie was given up.

Here is the NL relief pitching only stats. We do lead the league with 20 Lgr (relief losses) but as you can see the average is 15, you cant look at that 20 number and expect it to be close to 0. So that is 5 games lost above average our bullpen has cost us. For example Yuni right now is at 18.2 runs below average and Casey is 17.4 runs below average which combined accounts for about 4 wins below average between them.

Three things of note about your post.

 

1. If 3B and SS combined are costing us less compared to the average than our bullpen, wouldn't that make bullpen a more pressing need? I can see the logic to the contrary: 3B and SS are just two positions and a bullpen is an entire bullpen. But two factors make me believe that this was a better move to make than left-side infield upgrades:

a. As mentioned above, the addition of a quality, proven bullpen arm has a cascading positive effect on the rest of the relief pitchers. Hawkins and Saito will get more rest, and are very dominant pitchers to be getting 6th or 7th inning slots. Loe gets used more appropriately. And Estrada is only used when absolutely necessary.

b. While Yuni B is almost assuredly going to continue performing at a crap level, Casey could very will pick it back up. If he plays to his abilities, SS is our only issue and accounts for somewhere around 2 wins below average.

Therefore, i think the greatest need was filled, and with probably the greatest value available.

 

2. If you look at the bottom of that list, the teams that have lost the fewest due to bullpen issues are for the most part leading their divisions or are very much in the race.

3. We just grabbed one of the best relief pitchers for basically nothing off of one of the teams with the fewest bullpen losses.

 

The best part about this trade, though, is that no matter what you rate as a more urgent upgrade, it in no way deters us from making another move for a 3B or SS.

 

WIN WIN WIN

[And That]

Here is the NL relief pitching only stats. We do lead the league with 20 Lgr (relief losses) but as you can see the average is 15, you cant look at that 20 number and expect it to be close to 0. So that is 5 games lost above average our bullpen has cost us. For example Yuni right now is at 18.2 runs below average and Casey is 17.4 runs below average which combined accounts for about 4 wins below average between them.

Thank you for posting this. Should also note that the talent level in the bullpen would seem to indicate that they could improve going forward. The talent level at shortstop would certainly not lend itself to much improvement and third base isn't much better than that.

[steve267268]

I know there are have been assurances that it won't be Thornburg or our "top guys" but to Melvin I'm thinking he believes we only worry about 3-4 guys (Gamel, Rogers, Green maybe)...I'm still really worried.

 

Please do NOT let it be:

Green, Gindl, Heckathorn, Morris, Scarpetta, Peralta, really anyone.

 

I just don't like it. I know a lot of guys care not for amorphous "chemistry" but the thought of axford getting screwed up is really worrying. and pressure on RRR to insert k rod after one or two Ax blown saves.

On the topic of prospects and thinking about the linebrink trade, anyone see what kind of numbers Thatcher is putting up this year? ERA 1.29, Whip .86, 45/7 in 35 innings, .185 BAA.

[pebadger]

A couple of points:

 

First, why shouldn't K-Rod finish some games? Think about it. You now have the ability to use Axford say 3 days in a row and still have a quality closer to bring on on day 4 if need be. This isn't a question of NEVER using K-Rod as a closer. It's just about being smart. I have no doubt Ax is the first option at closer. Now they have another option when they need to go there. they will be able to use Hawkins, Saito and Loe in a much more targeeted way. They aren't going to put themselves in position for the option to vest. And they'll keep themselves far enough away from the number to make sure they'll still have the option to use K-Rod as a finisher late in the season. But if you have x number of games to play with, you may as well use them if you need them. That's why you make a deal like this.

 

Second, as much as there have been problems with the pen losing games, a lot of that also falls on the offense to a certain extent. There have been quite a number of games this season in which the offense has simply not supported good/great starts with enough add-on run production. Other than the recent 6-1 debacles this hasn't been a team prone to blowing huge leads. They've just put themsleves in a lot of coin flip situations. They've been very good in the 1-run games. When they've lost late they've lost games where they give up big innings and thus don't skew their own 1-run game stats.

 

Unless K-Rod turns out to be a horrible fit in the clubhouse, or simply fails on the mound, I don't see how this move has any down side for Milwaukee.

[jazzytrav]

Rodriguez 2010: 2.63 FIP 3.16 xFIP

Axford 2010: 2.13 FIP 2.79 xFIP

Saito 2010 2.43 FIP 2.69xFIP

The Brewers have two pitchers who were better than Rodriguez last year and a healthy Saito might still be better this year. I think people don't fully realize just how good Saito is.

Sorry, I took a quick look at WHIP and WAR, both of which Rodriguez was better. And I agree on Saito...I never mentioned him because we were talking specifically about Ax and K-rod.

 

and pressure on RRR to insert k rod after one or two Ax blown saves.

 

I realize it's unrealistic, but this wouldn't be the problem if relief pitchers didn't have these stupid labels.

[gregmag]

1. If 3B and SS combined are costing us less compared to the average than our bullpen, wouldn't that make bullpen a more pressing need? I can see the logic to the contrary: 3B and SS are just two positions and a bullpen is an entire bullpen. But two factors make me believe that this was a better move to make than left-side infield upgrades:

a. As mentioned above, the addition of a quality, proven bullpen arm has a cascading positive effect on the rest of the relief pitchers. Hawkins and Saito will get more rest, and are very dominant pitchers to be getting 6th or 7th inning slots. Loe gets used more appropriately. And Estrada is only used when absolutely necessary.

b. While Yuni B is almost assuredly going to continue performing at a crap level, Casey could very will pick it back up. If he plays to his abilities, SS is our only issue and accounts for somewhere around 2 wins below average.

Therefore, i think the greatest need was filled, and with probably the greatest value available.

I agree with your main points that this was a great trade (assuming DM doesn't blow the prospect selection and RR doesn't blow the option) and that it doesn't appreciably affect our ability to go get a ss. But the problem with your comparative logic here is that, even assuming WAR is unreliable and the bullpen actually has cost us five wins (which it hasn't; hitters help to lose those games by not hitting) is that picking up Rodriguez doesn't fix the whole bullpen problem -- multiple guys have caused that problem, and Rodriguez will only soak up what would have been the 25 or so worst bullpen innings going forward (and even that assumes RR will use him properly). OTOH, picking up a competent ss would solve the whole Yuni problem. Therefore, I'm pretty sure (without doing math I don't know how to do) that picking up a decent ss would be a substantially more productive move than getting Rodriguez.

 

I like that the prospects we send out depend on how Rodriguez pitches for us. If he pitches great, that increases our chances in a tight pennant race. If we have to give up a couple of decent quality guys for that leverage, I think we'll be doing the right thing. OTOH, if he stinks up the joint, we get a discount. I think offering arby could depend a lot on his performance as well. If he's lights out for us, then he'll get a multiyear offer to close somewhere. If he completes a down season in down fashion, then offering arby becomes a lot more risky (plus he might drop out of the type-A category anyway).

[Fear The Chorizo]

Axford has "finished" 35 of the Brewers' first 92 games this season while being the team's primary (and essentially only) closer option.

 

For the remaining 70 games this season, if the Brewers were to put KRod in that same role and the same percentage of games would need "finishing" by the primary closer, he'd "finish" 26-27 games. That would be enough for his vesting option to go into effect, but taking into context the fact that he won't be the team's primary closer and probably won't even get the majority of save opportunities, I see no way KRod gets close to 21 more game "finishes" no matter how hard RR tries to enrage fans with a longterm view for the Brewers.

 

I say we start a vest-o-meter thread for KRod, much like the 2008 magic # threads. I can see it entering Yuni B threadlength territory if that magic # works its way into single digits as September rolls around!

[NievesNoNO]

Let me just say that I couldn't be happier as a fan than debating how we're going to try and control innings of a great reliever, instead of filtering through other teams low level prospect lists and trying to decide who we should trade our stud players for. There's no way Mark A. lets that option vest unless all other good options are exhausted. That said, the more I think about it I don't really care who finishes the games. It's not my money and even if something crazy happens and we end up paying 18 mil for K-Rod next season, it's not like the team is in shambles. Most of this team is back next year all ready. It would basically be giving Prince money to Rodriguez for a year. Yes, it would be a terrible waste of resources; we won't be signing any free agents and we'd have to resign the 50 year old Counsil to play SS, but that's not much different than previous seasons.

 

Go get that SS Doug!!

[rluzinski]

I find it hard to believe the Brewers didn't have to give up real prospect and the Mets STILL gave $5 mil cash back? No one other team was available that was willing to spend more than $3.5 mil for almost half a season of K-Rod?

 

Even if an extra relief pitcher wasn't on the top of Melvin's list for a mid-season upgrade, I could see how that would be too good of a deal to pass on.

[jazzytrav]

I find it hard to believe the Brewers didn't have to give up real prospect and the Mets STILL gave $5 mil cash back? No one other team was available that was willing to spend more than $3.5 mil for almost half a season of K-Rod?

 

Even if an extra relief pitcher wasn't on the top of Melvin's list for a mid-season upgrade, I could see how that would be too good of a deal to pass on.

That has been my main thought in this. There has to be more to the story. I realize no one wants any decent prospects to go, but we also have to be careful of overrating our own prospects, and I don't think the Mets would just give him away.

 

 

[topper09er]

From any teams perspective they could say to the Mets, you still owe K-Rod $5MM + the very likely $17.5MM next year, so as long as you give us K-Rod for crap players and $20 MM you are still saving money, so maybe from that perspective you can understand most teams wanting more than $5 MM

[MadScientist]

I know there are have been assurances that it won't be Thornburg or our "top guys" but to Melvin I'm thinking he believes we only worry about 3-4 guys (Gamel, Rogers, Green maybe)...I'm still really worried.

 

Please do NOT let it be:

Green, Gindl, Heckathorn, Morris, Scarpetta, Peralta, really anyone.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think players on the 40 man roster can be PTBNL's. That would eliminate Scarpetta and Peralta at least.

[GAME05]

eh, every time a closer by committee strategy is tried out, it ends up that one player earns the role and is there full-time by the end of the year. i'm expecting about the same situation. i'm also not ready to assume that K-Rod's vesting option will necessarily kick in with 55 games finished, because it's still very likely that some agreement is in place for him to become a FA regardless. K-Rod could block a trade to 10 teams, so maybe that left Boras with a lot of opportunity to change the contract around. Boras wants him to be a FA and certainly Melvin does, too.

 

we'll need two closers to handle all of our second-half wins, anyway.

[danzig6767]

I find it hard to believe the Brewers didn't have to give up real prospect and the Mets STILL gave $5 mil cash back? No one other team was available that was willing to spend more than $3.5 mil for almost half a season of K-Rod?

 

Even if an extra relief pitcher wasn't on the top of Melvin's list for a mid-season upgrade, I could see how that would be too good of a deal to pass on.

Because of Rodriguez vesting option, my guess is the Mets were in the mood to get rid of him sooner than later, just being rid of him being priority number 1, 2, and 3. Plus, he had a 10 team no trade list.

 

Lastly, we have a proven closer on the roster, so Boras can't potentially file a grievance over using Rodriguez in a setup role to avoid vesting the option. Other teams looking for a relief pitcher may not have had that kind of situation with an entrenched closer, thus they'd want no part of acquiring him.