Can we go 41-29 in the final 70 games? I think we need 90 wins to take the division

[rluzinski]

Personally I think 88 wins will win the division.

100% of the time? 51% of the time? If your answer is "this time", I don't think you are looking at the situation correctly.

[craigharmann]

I think it all depends on upgrades at short and third.

Post All Star Greinke needs to be significantly better than pre All Star Greinke. If that happens, it lessens the need for improvement at those two spots.

Well, at least it washes out in the end. I haven't been able to watch a whole lot of games, but having passable range at short would probably help ZG a bunch. Granted, he's gotta make the pitches, and I think he's going to get back into form come the 2nd half, but yeah, it comes down to the guys who have been good need to keep it up and the guys who are stinking up the joint need to not stink up the joint or stink up the joint a bit less.

[fondybrewfan]

Personally I think 88 wins will win the division.

100% of the time? 51% of the time? If your answer is "this time", I don't think you are looking at the situation correctly.

I am not sure what you are getting at here? My opinion was that the division winner will only need to win 88 games just because no one team is going to be dominant enough to put together a huge 2nd half to get to 90 wins

[The Truth]

I think its going to come down to staying healthy. With almost no trading chips to improve the team, we've got to retain our health.

True. Although if Greinke and McGehee produce at their career norms in the 2nd half, that will be almost as if they upgraded those 2 positions

[pebadger]

Comparative Schedule Information:

 

MIL: 70 games remain. 43 divisional games (28 (13 rd) vs contenders) 34/36 Home/Road Split.

STL: 70 games remain. 47 divisional games (31 (18 rd) vs contenders) 38/32 Home Road Split.

PIT: 72 games remain. 47 divisional games (31 (10 rd) vs contenders) 35/37 Home/Road Split

CIN: 70 games remain. 34 divisional games (18 (12 rd) vs contenders) 37/33 Home/Road Split.

 

Games vs PHI/ATL/SF/AZ: Mil (11 total, 7 Road) Pit (14, 14R) StL (7, 4R) Cin (10, 0R)

 

All 4 contenders play the Cubs/Astros about the same number of times, but the Reds have significantly fewer direct matchups with the teams ahead of them in the standings.

 

The Brewers will either turn around their road woes or fall out of contention.

 

Pittsburgh has quite a row to hoe outside the division. On the other hand, they have a 2-1 home/road split in their favor in terms of games versus their direct competitors in the divsion.

 

Cinci, while not having as many shots at direct competitors may be able to gain ground outside the division as 26 of their games outside the division will be against likely non-contenders and those against contenders are all at the sweaty bandbox.

 

St Louis appears to be in good position. While the majority of their head-to-head matchups versus divisional competitors are on the road, they have a the best home/road setup and many of their home games will be against non-contending teams.

 

Given the way the schedule falls right after the break (Miwaukee's long road trip and the Pirates ATL/PHI guantlet), the story lines of what needs to happen for each team should be in much better focus by the first week in August.

[brewtank34]

Thanks for that breakdown pebadger! I was checking out the schedule for the second half and felt very confident about all of the interdivisional games we play. As long as we take care of StL when we play them, we should be good to go.

[rluzinski]

Personally I think 88 wins will win the division.

100% of the time? 51% of the time? If your answer is "this time", I don't think you are looking at the situation correctly.

I am not sure what you are getting at here? My opinion was that the division winner will only need to win 88 games just because no one team is going to be dominant enough to put together a huge 2nd half to get to 90 wins

I agree that no team is dominant. After all, no team projects to win even 88 games, according to Baseball Prospectus. But even if that projection is correct, there is a non-zero chance that an NL Central team wins 88 games and still doesn't take the division. If I had the choice right now to magically give the Brewers 88 wins for the season, I would grudgingly do so, since that would offer no guarantee to a division win, just a probability of winning (what that probability is, I could not even guess at without running some numbers).

It's similar to the scenario of having five perfectly average teams in a division. While you don't project any one team for more than 81 games, you project the divisional winner to have something like 86 wins by luck alone.

[Baldkin]

So, at the break, the Brewers have actually been outscored by 1 run on

the season, yet they've managed to end up 6 games over .500. Yeah, so,

-38 of those runs are BOS and NYY, but it still worries me quite a bit.

They've also gone an exceptional 20-13 in one run games.

 

I just saw this and its tempered my expectations for the second half.

[pebadger]

So, at the break, the Brewers have actually been outscored by 1 run on

the season, yet they've managed to end up 6 games over .500. Yeah, so,

-38 of those runs are BOS and NYY, but it still worries me quite a bit.

They've also gone an exceptional 20-13 in one run games.

 

I just saw this and its tempered my expectations for the second half.

I noticed that the other day too when I was looking things up related to the second half schedules. Obviously not very many teams have led their divisions at the break with a negative run differential.

 

Looking back over recent history, the truly amazing stat was Washington being 52-36 on this date in 2005 with a -4 run differntial. That's pretty impressive. They finished the year 81-81 and in last place in the NL East. In '06 Oakland was only 2 games over with a -14 differential. They held on to win the division by 4 games with a +44 differential.