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Come on Brewers, this bench is awful -- how about some changes?


adambr2

How do you figure?

 

Joe basically said what I would have. Counsell plays decent defense at 3 difficult positions and has put up acceptable offensive numbers for a backup infielder. Kotsay, on the other hand, plays mediocre defense at the positions where it's easiest to find guys who hit better than he has. Unless he's a defensive wizard, a backup corner OF with an OPS under .750 is pretty easy to improve upon.

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Well sure, but I rather have Counsell in the field. Kotsay is tolerable as a pure pinch hitter, as a 4th OFer he stinks. Look at the Cardinals and the Reds and their 4th OFers. If Kotsay was only used as a left handed pinch hitter who will hit .270 with little power he'd be fine if the team can support that. He isn't being used that way.
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Kotsay is so far down the list of problems at this point, I'd go so far to say he's an asset. The real problem is having Betancourt and McGehee in the starting lineup and having no usable backups at their positions. At the very least Melvin must pick up a serviceable SS to play everyday and bring up Green to play 3B. I know Counsel just picked up the game winning sac fly but a shallow fly ball seems to be his maximum capability at this point. He was a beneficiary of circumstance today. I think you trade for a SS, Betancourt takes to the bench and Counsel rides off into the sunset as a coach in some capacity.
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They should definitely just dump Betancourt. I don't really see much value for him as a bench guy. He can't run, he plays poor defense, and he couldn't give you a late-inning professional pinch hit at-bat if his life depended on it. Not worth the risk of him getting disgruntled and becoming a distraction.
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Counsell will remain with the team until at least August 15 considering August 14 is Craig Counsell bobblehead day at Miller Park. As much as I like rooting for the guy and despite his big sac fly today, I think it is time to move on from him. Hopefully he proves me wrong these next couple months though.
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Mediocre is actually quite good for a bench player. Anyway, by bWAR, Kotsay has been below replacement level 7 of the past 8 years. Counsell's only year below that threshold in that time is this season. Also, Counsell has some good will built up from being a Brewer for 6 years. Kotsay is just some scrub who has been here a few months.

 

The problem I have with that argument is that the concept of a "replacement player" is arbitrary, completely based on aggregate numbers, and the term "replacement" is a complete misnomer. There is no individual player that is guaranteed to put up exactly neutral WAR year to year, yet the term replacement player implies that there is. An actual "replacement player" will have some seasons significantly above and some significantly below that level. Seasons where that player is significantly below that level, will likely result in him losing a major league roster spot. That's not to mention that pure numbers alone don't tell an entire story of a player's value.

 

The thing about Kotsay is that for the most part, he hasn't fallen off the proverbial cliff. His numbers aren't great and may fall below a level that constitues a truly positive influence on a team's performance, but generally not by much, and in the opinion of many in the game, knowing that is better than taking a chance on an unknown quantity who could be truly awful. Plus having a player who's experienced virtually every situation the game can present has more value than just pure numbers. Kotsay, with roughly 1,700 major league hits, certainly fits that category.

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Kotsay's numbers fell off a cliff 6 years ago.

I didn't like Doug signing Kotsay and am still skeptical about how he'll do going forward over the rest of the season, but i wouldn't say his numbers fell off a cliff 6 years ago as you say.

 

First of all, even in his prime, Kotsay never had high enough numbers for them to have fallen off a cliff as you imply. In his prime, Kotsay in most years ranged from a .725-.800 OPS level hitter.

 

2006 he had a .719 OPS

 

2007 he was awful with a .575 OPS

 

2008 he had a poor .631 OPS in 84 at bats with Boston, but really rebounded with a .758 OPS in 318 at bats to finish the year after going to Atlanta.

 

2009 he was back in Boston struggling to a .615 OPS in 74 at bats, but rebounded again after going to Chicago by having a .783 OPS in 113 at bats with them.

 

2010 he had a .683 OPS in 327 at bats with Chicago

 

This year with us he has a .676 OPS in 160 at bats to this point

 

So yea, Kotsay did start showing decline in 2006 and it hasn't reversed itself. That said, when i think about a player's numbers falling off a cliff, i think of someone with a much steeper level of decline. An example being let's say Adam Dunn. He's consistently been a .850-.950 OPS hitter, .597 is what he's at this year. That simply could just be a bad slump so far by Dunn, but if say he instead is in real decline and the rest of his career, he struggles to be more than a .700.750 OPS hitter, that would be what i'd call falling off a cliff. Kotsay has more slid down the decline cliff from his prime years as a hitters.

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Kotsay is here to stay. I didn't want him on the team, but as a reserve 4th/5th OF and lefty bat off the bench he has value. No bench player is strong at every aspect of the game unless he's a young kid being worked into a starting role. Kotsay has no power and is a below average corner OF'er. But he also hits for an acceptable batting average and obp, and has shown the ability to put the ball in play in crucial situations. It's hard to find a bench player who can consistently perform this crucial role.

 

For the most part, he can catch the ball hit to his diminishing vicinity. So if he's strictly a fill in and Sunday afternoon stander, then you really aren't losing much putting him out there.

 

As a bench player, batting average matters. The ability to put the ball in play and have a reasonable amount drop may be the most important requirement for a bench player. He's hitting .263 which must be right around the league average. His obp is slightly above the team's obp. Yes he has no power, but the team gets quite a bit of power from their everyday players. What you want from a lefty bench player is a PH late in the game against a tough reliever to keep the rally alive. Kotsay has done all right in that role. As much as I like Boggs, we can't assume he would be as capable.

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