Would the Brewers consider trading Greinke?

[alwz4gbp]

If Zach keeps pitching the way he has so far this year, do the Brewers consider trading him this off season? Maybe land a SS and another pitcher in return. Thoughts?

 

Edit: Title.

[JohnBriggs12]

I wouldn't rule it out though Melvin is slow to cut losses and that would be an admission he overpaid. Greinke certainly hasn't helped his bargaining position for a contract extension.

[paul253]

Greinke's trade value would be much lower than it was when the Brewers got him. For one, he'd only have a year left on his contract as opposed to two years. Also, when he was in KC you could always argue he was the really good player on a really bad team. Well you can't really say that anymore if he pitches on a first or second place team. Plus it doesn't look like we have any in house replacements for him right now. Peralta and Rivas are both pitching poorly, have been all year. Scarpetta is inconsistent and others like Heckathorn haven't had enough success to be considered possibilities for a rotation spot next season. I think Melvin may be better off approaching him now about an extension. His value is a bit lower but he's not exactly Jeff Suppan. Something has to give though as Greinke, Marcum and Wolf are all free agents at the same time. If Melvin doesn't sign at least two of them I could see Milwaukee falling back into being a 4th or 5th place team really quickly.

 

All that being said, if you could get one good, high level, high ceiling pitching prospect for him, I'd probably do it. I'm thinking of someone who had Pineda or Hellickson's value last season. Maybe someone like Teheran, Matt Moore or Jacob Turner. I'm not sure how realistic those possibilities are, but I wouldn't want to take any chances on a A-baller.

[JohnBriggs12]

I wouldn't dream of approaching him about an extension at this point especially after you've loaded up with college pitchers in the draft. Long term deals for pitching are fraught with risk to begin with, and he's got question marks galore.

 

By the way Rivas hasn't been horrible, but it's the guys like Thornburg and Jungmann who figure to be fast tracked that are the future of the rotation as soon as 2013.

[Bankjob]

I think Melvin stuck his neck way out to signe Greinke. I thinking him back tracking would be a bad idea. We have Greinke for this year and next. If he gets traded my guess it will be at next years deadline if we are out of contention. If we are in contention I think we keep him and get the draft picks as we will be doing with Fielder.

[paul253]

By the way Rivas hasn't been horrible, but it's the guys like Thornburg

and Jungmann who figure to be fast tracked that are the future of the

rotation as soon as 2013.

 

Rivas hasn't been terrible, but his ceiling was low enough to begin with. Now his walk rate is up, his strikeout rate is down, and his is very inconsistent. As far as Thornburg and Jungmann being fast tracked, I'll believe it when I see it. I can't remember the last pitcher Milwaukee has ever fast tracked. Thornburg will spend the rest of the year in BC, all next year in Huntsville and then start 2013 in Nashville. Jungmann, assuming he experiences success, will follow a similar path but be a year behind.

 

I have zero faith in Melvin drafting and developing a good pitcher and that will not change until he's developed more than one (Gallardo). I had hopes for Peralta, Rivas, and Scarpetta, but until they reach the majors and have success you can't give him credit for them. Same deal with Heckathorn and Thornburg. He's had far more busts (Frederickson, Adams, Lintz, along with soon to be busts Arnett, Nelson and Miller in addition to all the other pitchers drafted in his tenure that didn't turn out) than he's had successes. Greinke is a far better pitcher than anyone Milwaukee has in the system. They are still a much better team with him than without him. He's been inconsistent this year but has a good track record and he is still young. I'd have no problem signing him to an extension right now.

[Warning Track Power]

They are still a much better team with him than without him. He's been inconsistent this year but has a good track record and he is still young. I'd have no problem signing him to an extension right now.

Amen. Even though ZG hasn't pitched anywhere near an ace, his struggles may end up helping us in the long run. Assuming he'd be interested in an extension now, the Brewers may be able to get him for something less than we thought. Maybe a 4 year $68MM extension ($17MM/season) instead of the $20MM/year I thought it would take all along.

 

Here's the other thing, we're in 1st without our best pitcher (arguably) being close to what he has been before. That is promising.

[Dollarbill13]

Greinke has been attacked by both luck dragons this year. He should be fine. And I agree with those here who would consider working on an extension now.

[Never Outhustled]

I hope they wouldn't trade him. If they did, it would be just another illistration of Melvin's inability to understand pitching statistics. I'm guessing Greinke gets hot soon.

[TheCrew07]

I have zero faith in Melvin drafting and developing a good pitcher and that will not change until he's developed more than one (Gallardo).

As Melvin doesn't draft or develop anyone, I agree that I have zero faith in him. It was Z's and now Seid's job to draft talent and was Nichol's job to develop it, though it appears now that Tunnell may be pulling the strings with the pitchers.

 

Greinke has been attacked by both luck dragons this year. He should be fine. And I agree with those here who would consider working on an extension now.

How can you possibly claim Greinke has been unlucky? The defense hurt him in his first start and his last, and even then the defense had nothing to do with everything that happened in the 2nd inning. The only way I can see people claiming he's been unlucky is if they don't watch the games and only look at metrics like FIP which ignore the actual result and calculate the ERA based on peripherals. People claimed he was unlucky last year because of his LOB%... but there's nothing unlucky about grooving FBs and hanging sliders. His SLG/OPS against is .474/.776 according to ESPN.com, which is higher than the league average for hitters, and his splits with multiple runners on base or in scoring position are horrible. Watching the games, he's not giving up bleeders, they are ball getting hit hard... he just gives up runs in bunches and has actually pitched worse in the tougher situations. It may just be a sample size thing as there is no denying his physical talent, but I've watched all of his starts except the game against the Rays and from where I'm sitting he's just made bad pitches in tough situations.

 

How is any player consistently unlucky for 1.5 years? He must have the worst luck in the history game... or maybe he was just really lucky in 2009? Luck.... good, bad, or otherwise has nothing to do with Zack giving up runs in bunches all season.

[pingman]

it's pretty obvious that Grienke is a fragile, high maintenance type of guy...... MAYBE he needs a more experienced catcher .....for example, Pudge Rodriguez ...someone who knows when to pat him on the back yet has the cache/respect to kick him in the ass when needed

 

I'm not saying throw Lucroy under the bus; but maybe have a designated catcher for Grienke with Lucroy handling the other 4-starters

[TooLiveBrew]

it's pretty obvious that Grienke is a fragile, high maintenance type of guy.

 

I don't think this is obvious in any way.

[greeg35]

maybe have a designated catcher for Grienke with Lucroy handling the other 4-starters

 

 

I disagree with your entire statement. Greinke is fine, just not living up to expectations yet. However, the section I quoted in particular is impossible because we all know Wolf can't physically, mentally, spiritually, or emotionally be expected to pitch to Lucroy EVER.

[Dollarbill13]

People claimed he was unlucky last year because of his LOB%...

 

It may just be a sample size thing as there is no denying his physical talent, but I've watched all of his starts except the game against the Rays and from where I'm sitting he's just made bad pitches in tough situations.

His LOB% last year was 65%. His LOB% this year is 55%. If you look at his situational stats, he's basically been very good without RISP and terrible with RISP. Either something happens inside him when he's in tougher situations that causes him to melt down or it's a small sample. Given that he's faced 70 batters with RISP this season, and his career numbers with RISP are actually better than his overall numbers, I'm going to chalk this one up to small sample size (which is luck if you ask me).

 

Pitches always look worse when they get smashed into the gap for a double. I'm not trying to say your perception is wrong but that's a potential bias. Also, all pitchers throw pitches where they hit their spot and throw pitches where they miss their spot. I'd be interested to see some PitchFX data on the percentage of good and bad pitches that Zack throws as well as how often he throws good and bad pitches. Given his ridiculous strikeout rate and low walk rate, it's pretty easy to argue that the vast majority of his pitches are excellent. Maybe he just loses focus and throws up an occasional Ruben Quevedo-esque meatball that are much worse than the average pitcher's "bad" pitches. It's hard to know that for sure, but I don't really buy that as a likely scenario given that he's been in the league for a while without doing something similar ever before. He's also thrown over 800 innings since the whole Social Anxiety Disorder diagnosis.

[paul253]

As Melvin doesn't draft or develop anyone, I agree that I have zero

faith in him. It was Z's and now Seid's job to draft talent and was

Nichol's job to develop it, though it appears now that Tunnell may be

pulling the strings with the pitchers.

 

Ultimately he has the final say, well he and Mark A. I suppose, over who the Brewers draft. I realize he doesn't do the scouting but he is still responsible for the pitchers selected. He is also responsible for hiring the scouting director. He also is the one making trades. He traded for guys like Zach Jackson, Jose Cappellan, and Jorge De La Rosa, none of who had much success in Milwaukee.

[brewmann04]

i think they will keep Zac and try to resign him at a cheaper deal. Right now it be Marcum i keep over Zac.

[PrinceEatMeat]

No way I'd keep Marcum over Greinke if I had to choose. Marcum's style of pitching signals a drop off later in his career. Greinke has a chance to be better for a longer period of time in my opinion. I think Greinke will likely be the better pitcher 4 or 5 years down the road. His stuff is just so good that if he gets things straight he can be that Cy Young pitcher he was a few years ago. Marcum will never be a Cy Young pitcher, because he just doesn't have that kind of talent. I guess if you look at it from purely a dollar amount standpoint though, then Marcum will obviously be the more economical signing. Either way, I'd love to keep both of them for sure.

[GB12]

Trading him this offseason would be stupid. If he doesn't dramatically turn this season around we'd be selling low. If he does turn it around there's no reason to move him. If he gets hot next season and we're out of it by the deadline that's when you consider trading him. However, as others have said, I'd try for an extension. Maybe his poor start could benefit us by having to pay a little less.

 

Also, while I think his troubles pitching in Yankee Stadium have been blown out of proportion, I don't believe he'd want to go to a NY, LA, or Chicago. Milwaukee seems to be the right type of town for his personality, so that should work in our favor.

[davego]

If the 'crew can get a fair extention with Zack, lock him up and move on to other issues. I wonder as fans if we (maybe just me) don't appreciate how valuable a "good" and "dependable" starter is. Then toss in Zack's upside...we need to keep him, if possible.

[PilprinBuddha]

I would ABSOLUTELY try to extend him now....his asking price never will be lower. I am convinced that his up and down year has everything to do with the awkward start to the year. It is amazing how a wierd or abreviate spring often has lasting effect (for the year) on the the player. He is still a cornerstone pitcher.

[pingman]

gotta keep him.....

 

If you lose Fielder & Grienke then the message your sending to the team & fans is "rebuilding mode" & I can't see Mark A tolerating that..... the cost of replacing Grienke (via free agency because there's no prospect that will be ready in the near future) would be very expensive.....

[PrinceEatMeat]

I'd be totally on board with giving Greinke an extension right now. Try to lock him in while his price is at the lowest it may ever be. He probably wouldn't do it right now, but if he's open to it I would.