National League MVP 2011: Braun = MVP! (reply #318)

[jjfanec]

Can someone explain to me why Votto is better than Braun offensively or how he should be ahead of Braun for MVP? I dont understand all the advanced matric stats, but Braun has the edge in OPS, can steal bases (has 24 more steals and has only been caught more once), and it isnt like Braun's numbers are inflated by a higher BABIP. If you just look at offense I dont see it. Now I dont know how good Votto is in the field but I am sure he is better than Braun so maybe that is it.

 

Also what are the stats that show Braun has been lucky offensively?

[dlk9s]

Also what are the stats that show Braun has been lucky offensively?

You misread how "good luck" was used.

[jjfanec]

Also what are the stats that show Braun has been lucky offensively?

You misread how "good luck" was used.

I am asking about rams quote that "Votto is definitely better than Braun and hasn't gotten lucky at all this season." What was he trying to say?

[topper09er]

Braun leads the league in batting, slugging, OPS and runs scored plus he will finish with 40 doubles/30HRs/30SBs. Braun is going to run away with it

[DuWayne Steurer]

Braun leads the league in batting, slugging, OPS and runs scored plus he will finish with 40 doubles/30HRs/30SBs. Braun is going to run away with it

This.

 

Seeing as it's an almost given now that the Crew wins the central, unless Braun absolutely falls apart over the last 20 games (which he won't), I think it won't even really be close now between Braun and aynone else except MAYBE Fielder, if Fielder gets red hot the next 3 weeks.

[markedman5]

If Braun does indeed lead the league in hitting, OPS, Runs scored and hits 30 hrs and steals 30 bases, finishes in the top 5 in RBIs and doubles would it be the best offensive season in Brewer history?

 

I guess Fielder's 50 hr year, Yount's first MVP season and Molitors huge year with the hitting streak would all be up there as well but I think

I'd take Braun's 2011 over all of them(especially since it came in a year that we won the division title).

[DuWayne Steurer]

If Braun does indeed lead the league in hitting, OPS, Runs scored and hits 30 hrs and steals 30 bases, finishes in the top 5 in RBIs and doubles would be the best offensive season in Brewer history?

 

I guess Fielder's 50 hr year, Yount's first MVP season and Molitors huge year with the hitting streak would all be up there as well but I think

I'd take Braun's 2011 over all of them(especially since it came in a year that we won the division title).

Molitor's 87 season was probably the best. Despite missing almost 50 games, he lead the league in runs and doubles, hit .353, and had an OPS of 1.003 while stealing 45 bases. It's close though. Molly gets the nod for the .438 OBP.

[topper09er]

Franchise History

 

Rank	Player	Offensive WAR	Year
1.	Robin Yount	10.7	1982
2.	Tommy Harper	7.9	1970
3.	Robin Yount	7.8	1983
4.	Paul Molitor	7.2	1982
5.	Robin Yount	6.9	1989
6.	Ryan Braun	6.7	2009
	Prince Fielder	6.7	2009
8.	Ryan Braun	6.4	2011
9.	Paul Molitor	6.3	1987
10.	Robin Yount	6.0	1980

This does account for positional however, so not purely offense.

Here is another list, OPS relative to the league

 

Rank	Player	Adjusted OPS+	Year
1.	Ryan Braun	169	2011
2.	Prince Fielder	166	2009
	Robin Yount	166	1982
4.	Sixto Lezcano	164	1979
5.	Paul Molitor	161	1987
6.	Prince Fielder	157	2007
7.	Prince Fielder	156	2011
8.	Cecil Cooper	155	1980
9.	Ryan Braun	154	2007
10.	Larry Hisle	153	1978
	Ben Oglivie	153	1980

[fondybrewfan]

Braun is running away with MVP right now IMO. If he wins the batting title, OPS title, and gets to 30/30 he is a lock.

[TooLiveBrew]

unless Braun absolutely falls apart over the last 20 games (which he won't)

 

And he's just white-hot at the plate right now, even without a lot of recent HRs --

 

Last 28 days: 1.160 OPS

Last 14 days: 1.140

Last 07 days: 1.132

 

If he goes on the HR binge he seems due to hit, the vote won't even be close. He's probably going to finish with 40+ doubles, 30+ HR, 35+ SB.

[DuWayne Steurer]

unless Braun absolutely falls apart over the last 20 games (which he won't)

 

And he's just white-hot at the plate right now, even without a lot of recent HRs --

 

Last 28 days: 1.160 OPS

Last 14 days: 1.140

Last 07 days: 1.132

 

If he goes on the HR binge he seems due to hit, the vote won't even be close. He's probably going to finish with 40+ doubles, 35+ HR, 35+ SB. And geez, I just realized that if the playoff race(s) aren't close for the Brewers, & Braun heats up in terms of HRs, we could be talking about a 40-40 chase. That's pretty amazing.

I think even 35 homers is generous. He's at 27 with 20 games to go. Hitting 8 in 20 games is not at all out of the realm of possibility, but I'd say it's at least a little bit of a long shot.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yeah, I misread his splits page at Baseball-Reference. Failed ninja-edit on my part!

[DuWayne Steurer]

Yeah, I misread his splits page at Baseball-Reference. Failed ninja-edit on my part!

Pfff....don't feel bad. I've been wrong a LOT this year. I predicted a 3- 8 road trip after the all star break that would be the pre-cursor to the Brewers falling out of the race. Your faux pas, in hindsight, is far less egregious.

[Schlitz001]

Braun leads the league in batting, slugging, OPS and runs scored plus he will finish with 40 doubles/30HRs/30SBs. Braun is going to run away with it

It seems like his to lose at this point. Kemp is his biggest threat right now and Kemp's wOBA is .022 behind Braun at this point, plus you don't really have much of an argument for Kemp being a better defender than Braun. Most of the voters will want a player from a winning team, but even if you view this a "best player of the year award", you can't deny the numbers that Braun is putting up.

[DuWayne Steurer]

It'll be interesting to see if Braun can hang onto the SLG crown. He's certainly not what you'd call a 'traditional' power hitter. He's not at all what you'd classify as a big guy, not to mention that his SLG% this year is driven heavily by his batting average and his doubles. He's 'only' homering about 5.5% of his at bats, or once every 18 at bats.

[endaround]

No Braun's biggest threat is Upton. A split of votes between Braun and Fielder and the idea that without Upton the DBacks wouldn't make the playoffs and Upton could win a close three way race.

[DuWayne Steurer]

So I'm looking at this in closer detail, and as a disclaimer, I like WAR a lot, and I use it often.

 

But the Braun/Kemp comparison shows me one of the problems with it. Kemp gets a positional boost because he plays CF, but he plays it poorly. Braun plays LF, and plays it at a mediocre level.

 

I have no doubt that Braun could play CF as well as Kemp. Kemp shouldn't get a boost just because he plays in CF, and produces like a LF, rather he should be downgraded for playing poorly at a premium defensive position.

 

Now I also realize that Kemp's +10 runs this year defensively, but I think we all know that he's no +10 center fielder out there.

[Baldkin]

Franchise History

 

Rank	Player	Offensive WAR	Year
1.	Robin Yount	10.7	1982
2.	Tommy Harper	7.9	1970
3.	Robin Yount	7.8	1983
4.	Paul Molitor	7.2	1982
5.	Robin Yount	6.9	1989
6.	Ryan Braun	6.7	2009
	Prince Fielder	6.7	2009
8.	Ryan Braun	6.4	2011
9.	Paul Molitor	6.3	1987
10.	Robin Yount	6.0	1980

This does account for positional however, so not purely offense.

Here is another list, OPS relative to the league

 

Rank	Player	Adjusted OPS+	Year
1.	Ryan Braun	169	2011
2.	Prince Fielder	166	2009
	Robin Yount	166	1982
4.	Sixto Lezcano	164	1979
5.	Paul Molitor	161	1987
6.	Prince Fielder	157	2007
7.	Prince Fielder	156	2011
8.	Cecil Cooper	155	1980
9.	Ryan Braun	154	2007
10.	Larry Hisle	153	1978
	Ben Oglivie	153	1980

OPS+ is a bad way to judge offensive seasons. I don't know why you don't use wOBA. It's adjusted to league average, just like OPS+, and properly weighs OBP.

 

Looking at 4 big seasons:

Molitor '87: .443

Yount '82: .418

Cooper '80: .404

Prince '09: .420

Braun '11: .436 (so far)

 

So right now, he has a solid chance of this being the best offensive season by a Brewer, ever, especially if you consider Molly in '87 only played in 118 games.

[Schlitz001]

No Braun's biggest threat is Upton. A split of votes between Braun and Fielder and the idea that without Upton the DBacks wouldn't make the playoffs and Upton could win a close three way race.

You are probably right about Upton being a bigger threat than Kemp, but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a player from a non-contending team get more of the votes than in previous years. Just like the BBWAA began to switch away from "wins" for deciding the Cy Young award, I think we could see some of the voting directed more towards the best overall hitter (player). On ESPN and some of the national broadcasts it seems like there is more debate over what "valueable" means.

[topper09er]

OPS+ is a bad way to judge offensive seasons. I don't know why you don't use wOBA. It's adjusted to league average, just like OPS+, and properly weighs OBP.

 

Looking at 4 big seasons:

Molitor '87: .443

Yount '82: .418

Cooper '80: .404

Prince '09: .420

Braun '11: .436 (so far)

 

So right now, he has a solid chance of this being the best offensive season by a Brewer, ever, especially if you consider Molly in '87 only played in 118 games.

wOBA is not park adjusted, and OPS+ is certainly not "bad" RBIs are bad, errors are bad. It only weighs OBP correctly based on value, which is up to the user to decide. I think that hardest thing to do in baseball is to maintain a high slugging %, even if having a higher OBP is more valuable for your team, the best seasons have the highest slugging %, so I like OPS. Also your 1-5 from wOBA are 5,1,2,8,2, not too far off.

[brewerguy71]

So I'm looking at this in closer detail, and as a disclaimer, I like WAR a lot, and I use it often.

 

But the Braun/Kemp comparison shows me one of the problems with it. Kemp gets a positional boost because he plays CF, but he plays it poorly. Braun plays LF, and plays it at a mediocre level.

 

I have no doubt that Braun could play CF as well as Kemp. Kemp shouldn't get a boost just because he plays in CF, and produces like a LF, rather he should be downgraded for playing poorly at a premium defensive position.

 

Now I also realize that Kemp's +10 runs this year defensively, but I think we all know that he's no +10 center fielder out there.

 

 

You might want to adjust your disclaimer and state that Braun plays LF poorly. And Kemp has a negative fielding affect on his WAR.

 

I dont think Kemp will win it, but he is having the better season, and plays in a pitcher friendly park with no help at all in the batting order. What he has done this year offensively is nothing short of amazing given all of the factors. Will be very interesting to see what a Fielder-less lineup will to for Braun's numbers next year and beyond.

[jjfanec]

You might want to adjust your disclaimer and state that Braun plays LF poorly.

I know this is a common sentiment but I have read a lot baseball writers who have said Braun is an average LF. They usually say it in the context of MVP talk. They will say Prince is a really bad defender, whereas Braun is not good but average. I wish I had saved the different articles, but I am pretty sure they were on ESPN and CNNSI. One even quoted an NL scout who said the same thing. Whether he is average or not it seems like many writers think he is so that will help his chances

[endaround]

Braun is a terrible fielder. Braun is as bad in LF as Kemp is in center.

[cwolf2012]

Braun would also not play as good a CF as Kemp does. Braun would be -20 or worse in CF.

[RockCoCougars]

I think that Prince and Braun have distanced themselves from the pack by a lot at this point because none of the guys with comparable stats outside of Upton play for contenders. Braun has closed the gap, and gun to my head, I probably vote for him at this point after going with Prince for basically the entire year. I can't see how a split vote could hurt them, because the writers have to vote for 10 places, no? In my view, Upton would be the only legit threat, though I see a lot of the East coast media giving Victorino a top 3 vote.