National League MVP 2011: Braun = MVP! (reply #318)

[KCBrewerfan34]

I think it would be awesome if they can share it. These guys are such studs I don't know how you pick between them this year.

 

 

GO BREW

[topper09er]

Prince has been hitting all season in front of one of the most disfunctional #5 spots in the NL.

This should tell you all you need to know. Lineup protection is irrelevant.

Guarantee next year without Prince Braun will walk 90+ times. Its not as important as some make it out to be but it does exist.

[Funketown]

Guarantee next year without Prince Braun will walk 90+ times. Its not as important as some make it out to be but it does exist.

From what I gather it's not necessarily true that batters aren't pitched differently when bad hitters are behind them in the order. Nobody has found that the quality of the hitter behind affects the hitter's overall productivity, but it probably is true that they are productive in a different way when poor hitters are behind them (lots of walks vs. a few more doubles/HR's).

 

edit: typo

[RockCoCougars]

Guarantee next year without Prince Braun will walk 90+ times. Its not as important as some make it out to be but it does exist.

 

Exactly. Why do people think Bonds had such insane walk totals in SF?

[markedman5]

Heyman says Braun

 

http://sportsillustrated..../index.html?eref=writers

[Tedaldtada]

Prince has been hitting all season in front of one of the most disfunctional #5 spots in the NL.

This should tell you all you need to know. Lineup protection is irrelevant.

Its not as important as some make it out to be but it does exist.

Exactly, it is irrelevant. It does exist, but it is not really significant enough to be relevant.

And to the Bonds comment, he had Jeff Kent, a former MVP, hitting behind him. Bonds walked a lot because he had a very good eye, elite bat speed, and incredible power. Pitchers pitched around him while at the same time he only swung at mistakes.

 

[gregmag]

Well, I read an expert chat over at Fangraphs that treated Braun's MVP candidacy as marginal, which to me represented stathead reflex rather than stathead insight -- Braun has been terrific by advanced stat criteria as well as more traditional criteria. But that Heyman article irritated me a lot more. He's a decent writer and a thoughtful guy -- I give him credit for explaining his traditionalist biases and acknowledging that "valuable" is open to different interpretations. But those traditionalist biases, for me, remain hard to defend.

 

Also, I have to put my head on the chopping block and say that I really don't see a case for Fielder as MVP. His hitting numbers have been very close to Braun's, which means very close to the best in the league. I agree with Heyman that he deserves bonus points for clubhouse leadership. Playing every game is a big plus. But still, he's clearly the second-best player on his own team this year. Braun has hit a bit better (although that may change by the end of the year), has been almost immeasurably better as a baserunner, and has been far better (well, far less bad) in the field. I would put Fielder, right now, pretty far back in the running, behind at least (in no particular order) Kemp, Upton, Votto, Tulowitzki, and Victorino (but if you need your MVP to be on a contender, I get why a couple of them fall out of the discussion). Those guys and Braun are all in a cluster; Fielder isn't there.

[topper09er]

Braun is sitting at .334 with the off day and Jose Reyes is at .336 with a doubleheader today. We might wake up to see a new batting champ tomorrow, and a batting title will guarantee Braun the MVP

[RockCoCougars]

And to the Bonds comment, he had Jeff Kent, a former MVP, hitting behind him. Bonds walked a lot because he had a very good eye, elite bat speed, and incredible power. Pitchers pitched around him while at the same time he only swung at mistakes.

 

Bonds hit cleanup quite a bit when Kent was there as well. I don't really have the time or inclination to look it up, but I'd be willing to bet that Bonds walked at a higher clip when he hit cleanup and/or after Kent left. In my view, there's no way that Braun wouldn't walk more if he was hitting ahead of Casey McGehee.

[UeckerAddict]

Batting champ question: They say you need 501 plate appearances to win a batting title. Say you have 497, but adding 4 at bats with no hits would still give you the best average in the league. Will they add the 0-4 and give you the title?

[istanbultaye]

The answer is yes, unless something changed since Ryan Braun's ROY campaign. He lead the league in slugging through that mechanism.

[razzzorsharp]

I could see Votto taking the crown with the tear he is on.

[Glennron]

I could see Votto taking the crown with the tear he is on.

I don't think too many voters will give him a first place vote due to him being on a .500 team. Plus, he wasn't as good in the first half of the season which a lot of people will remember since the Reds struggled a bit.

[JohnBriggs12]

I still take Fielder over Braun based on the fact that Prince has played 12 more games than Braun. It's as simple as that. Assuming all else is equal, and you can argue which stat one guy leads in over the other, but basically offensively when both are in the lineup, they are equally as valuable. So you go with the guy who's started all 135 games to this point over the guy who's started 121. Braun was of zero value in 12 games that he missed entirely and of little value in the two he came off the bench.

 

I also tend to lean to Fielder, because invariably on a game after game basis, he faces an opponent late in games who's one job is to get him out.

[topper09er]

and of little value in the two he came off the bench.

I seem to remember a 2 out 9th inning go ahead HR in the pinch.

 

I dont think this will be a big factor for the voters. Right now the only thing Prince has above Braun is the NL RBI lead, which is huge to voters, but Braun has the OPS lead and a chance at the batting title and a 30/30 year.

[TGJforPrez]

JohnBriggs12 wrote:

 

I also tend to lean to Fielder, because invariably on a game after game basis, he faces an opponent late in games who's one job is to get him out.

I am not sure how this makes Prince more valuable? In my mind, it means he is susceptible to a certain type of pitcher which Braun isn't. While Prince's OPS aginst left hand pitching is still a respectable .811, its quite a bit lower than any split Braun has. Also, while Braun is poor defensively in his own right, he is a much better defender than Prince at a harder position. And none of this is accounting for Braun's base-running abilities which puts him near the top of the league while Prince is near the bottom.

[UeckerAddict]

"I still take Fielder over Braun based on the fact that Prince has played 12 more games than Braun. It's as simple as that."

 

This argument can work to Braun's advantage when you consider we were 5-7 without him and 76-47 with him.

 

 

"Braun was...........of little value in the two he came off the bench"

 

To this, I must say.......

 

[razzzorsharp]

I could see Votto taking the crown with the tear he is on.

I don't think too many voters will give him a first place vote due to him being on a .500 team. Plus, he wasn't as good in the first half of the season which a lot of people will remember since the Reds struggled a bit.

I was talking more about the batting title.

[brewerguy71]

Votto is the best player as of right now, more productive than Kemp or Braun. Even if you give Braun a premium for being on a winning/playoff team, it doesnt match those two guys production. Do I think Votto or Kemp will win? No, we are talking about the BBWAA here. The only shot that Braun or Fielder have of winning the award is if it does not get split, and allow a Shane Victorino or Justin Upton to sneak up and win.

[endaround]

Votto isn't better than Braun at the plate. The difference comes in the field and good luck with making that case to voters.

[brewerguy71]

They are pretty dang close. If Braun were a DH maybe the argument makes sense. Braun has the better shot of winning the award given the Brewers record, but they add almost identical value to their respective teams. Interesting thing is that if you take Braun off of the Brewers, they are still a playoff team, take Votto or Kemp off of their respective teams, and you're looking at hopefully winning 70.

[ramssuperbowl99]

Votto isn't better than Braun at the plate. The difference comes in the field and good luck with making that case to voters.

What? Votto is definitely better than Braun and hasn't gotten lucky at all this season.

[trwi7]

ramssuperbowl99 wrote:

---

What? Votto is definitely better than Braun and hasn't gotten lucky at all this season.

Braun's wOBA is 11 points better than Votto's this season.

[cwolf2012]

"What? Votto is definitely better than Braun and hasn't gotten lucky at all this season. "

 

Braun's wRC+ is 11 points higher as well. If you don't include baserunning/stealing, yes, Votto is better offensively. With Braun's ridiculously good baserunning stats this season, I'd give him the edge.

 

I think Votto will be better going forward, however.

[dlk9s]

Votto isn't better than Braun at the plate. The difference comes in the field and good luck with making that case to voters.

What? Votto is definitely better than Braun and hasn't gotten lucky at all this season.

You misread how "good luck" was used.