National League MVP 2011: Braun = MVP! (reply #318)

[rluzinski]

No one can even agree what "MVP" means so I will simply show some numbers. Context neutral production (offense, base running and fielding) leaders, look at WAR (wins above replacement):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/...nth=0&season1=2011&ind=0

 

If you want context (just batting though), use WPA (win probability added):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/...nth=0&season1=2011&ind=0

 

Lot's of good choices to pick from.

[DuWayne Steurer]

No one can even agree what "MVP" means so I will simply show some numbers. Context neutral production (offense, base running and fielding) leaders, look at WAR (wins above replacement):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/...nth=0&season1=2011&ind=0

 

If you want context (just batting though), use WPA (win probability added):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/...nth=0&season1=2011&ind=0

 

Lot's of good choices to pick from.

Russ, I'm basically going off of what we know about how the writers vote. They're going to pick the best player from a playoff team. As it stands right now, that's Braun, Fielder, Berkman, or McCann. If the Braves continue to scuffle, or McCann drops off, he'll be out of the running too.

[pitchleague]

but he is near the top of the league in HR, runs and RBI despite the injury and the cold spell at the beginning.

a bit off topic, but it still is strange seeing our league leaders in homers on August 1st is only at 31 and 28 homers. I guess the steroid era had me "fooled" to think they were normal.

[topper09er]

Braun's Ranking in the NL right now

AVE: 2nd

OBP: 4th

SLG: 2nd

OPS: 2nd

Runs: 3rd

TB: 3rd

2B: 4th

HR: 9th
RBI: 5th

SB: 10th

Fielding %: 1.000

 

Brewers place: 1st

 

Id have to say right now he is in the lead to win the MVP, the next best choices would be Lance Berkman and Matt Kemp and maybe Roy Halladay. Kemp in on a bad team so I think it may come down to Braun if the Brewers win the central or Berkman if the Cards do

[The Truth]

Matt Kemp seems like the logical choice right now for NL MVP with Ryan Braun 2nd. They are 1 and 2 in WAR right now.

[topper09er]

Im talking about what will happen based on voter precedence, not who actually deserves it. Voters love traditional stats and playoff teams. If Braun can win the batting title and be top 10 in HR and RBI he is a virtual lock to win if the Brewers make the playoffs. I would think less than half of the voters knows what WAR is and even fewer would consider it in their voting.

[jjfanec]

Matt Kemp seems like the logical choice right now for NL MVP with Ryan Braun 2nd. They are 1 and 2 in WAR right now.

If they just went by WAR that would be true but we know voters dont do that. If your team makes the playoffs you definitely get bonus points in the voter' eyes

[endaround]

Its so hard to say. Braun/Fielder could easily be penalized for having the other on the team, same with Holliday, Pujols, and Berkman. Then you'll end up with McCann because people don't seem to know Freddie Freeman exists.

[gregmag]

When Dawson won, he was just so dominating for the Cubs that it was almost unfair.

A lot of people have argued this, so I'm not claiming novelty, but Dawson was a horrible MVP choice, and not because he played for a loser. OPS+ is good for this kind of argument, because it's park-adjusted. Dawson in 1987 put up a 130 OPS+, which is very good but hardly stellar. He hit 49 home runs, but he didn't do anything else at an MVP level -- he hit .287 and didn't walk, for an OBP of .328, plus Wrigley inflated his power numbers: he slugged .668 at home, .480 on the road. Also, his knees were hurting by then, so he didn't steal much and didn't defend at a high level, and he grounded into 15 double plays. By way of comparison, Ryan Braun has put up a 130 OPS+ twice -- in his two "off" years. This year he's at 166. Same thing for Fielder over the past five seasons -- "off" year OPS+ of 130 and 134, this year 160.

 

Here's a good post arguing that Dawson in 1987 was the worst MVP pick of recent years: http://joeposnanski.si.com/2007/11/14/dawsons-freak/

 

As for this year, I think the award is there for the taking. Matt Kemp has the best numbers right now, but he hasn't run away and hidden from the pack. If Braun or Fielder conspicuously carries the Brewers into the playoffs, he'll probably get the MVP, and he may even deserve it. I hate the notion that the MVP has to play for a winner, but I'll use the player's impact on a pennant race as a tiebreaker. Kemp has a big advantage over Braun and Fielder in that he plays cf and (as far as I know) plays it pretty well, whereas Braun is a wash at best defensively and Fielder is a liability.

 

I completely disagree with the notion, which someone floated above, that the MVP has to be someone who plays head and shoulders above his teammates. That amounts to a penalty for playing on a winning team. If, say, Prince Fielder is the best player in the league, and Braun is second and Weeks is third, Prince deserves the MVP just as much as he would if Yuni Betancourt were the second-best player on his team.

 

 

[RockCoCougars]

I say that the MVP is still Prince at this point. Kemp has slightly better stats, but I don't see him getting it. I still say if the vote was held today it'd be something like Fielder, Braun, Kemp, Reyes, Pujols.

 

Boy, the 'modern stats' people sure hate on Dawson. First they were attacking his HOF credentials, now the MVP season. Being from the 80's, in my view, Dawson was a top 5 MLB player (non-pitcher) for a few years in the early 80's with Murray, Schmidt, Murphy, etc. Despite what the stats say, he was definitely better than Jim Rice- so was Dave Parker, but that's an argument for another day. He was an absolute beast in '87. Jack Clark was right there too, and would have been a legit selection. Tim Raines, based mostly on OBP? No. He didn't even play the first month of the season, because he couldn't resign with the Expos until May 1.

[gregmag]

I agree that Dawson was better than Rice. From 1980-1983, Dawson was an excellent player who did a lot of things well, whereas Rice was a great hitter for a few years, a good hitter for several more years, and never did anything well but hit. Dawson played longer, although he wasn't worth much for his last few years. But I don't think either of them belongs in the Hall of Fame. They're there because they hit home runs (which is important, but less impressive in Wrigley or Fenway) and drove in runs (which, as its own thing, is mostly down to your place in the lineup and what your teammates do).

 

And yes, I strongly believe that Raines was better than either of them. I don't base this on super-sophisticated "modern stats" -- just the importance of OBP and noticing things like stolen bases and double plays. Get this: per 162 games --

 

Rice was 4-for-7 in SB attempts, drew 52 walks, and grounded into 24 DPs.

 

Dawson was 19-for-26 in SB attempts, drew 36 walks, and grounded into 13 DPs.

 

Raines was 52-for-61 in SB attempts, drew 86 walks, and grounded into 9 DPs.

 

This is about as crude as assumptions and math get, but if we give each guy a score for SB + BB - CS - GDP, we get:

 

Rice: 29

Dawson: 35

Raines: 120

 

That calculation is too rough, because it treats a base like an out, but it still gives you a quick sense of how much more offense Raines brought to the table beyond the triple crown stats. Then when you add the facts that Raines played in tougher parks for hitters and played better defense than Rice and late Dawson (early Dawson was a great defender) -- really, hitting HRs and early Dawson's defense were the only things that Rice or Dawson did better than Raines. Raines was better in every other aspect of the game.

[lcbj68c]

http://espn.go.com/blog/s...n-ellsbury-top-mvp-races

 

At first glance at the title, I thought, "Really, Justin Upton?" But he makes a good point. If Upton continues to carry the Diamondbacks over the Giants into the playoffs, who could argue if his peripherals are near Braun or Fielder?

[DuWayne Steurer]

Dawson was one of the worst MVP choices ever. He had a good, not great season in which offensive numbers across the board were grossly inflated, and had a .323 OBP. I know, I know, his job is to drive in runs, not get on base. No matter how you slice it though, getting out 68% of the time is a detriment to your team and scoring runs in general.

[jhart05]

Prince for MVP of the NL.

 

Nyjer Morgan for MVP of the Brewers Clubhouse.

[JohnBriggs12]

Right now, I have to go with Prince. Braun has been great, but he's missed games and he has Fielder behind him. Teams employ lefty specialists who's sole job against the Brewers is to get Prince out. Day in and day out from the 7th inning on, all Prince sees are lefty specialists or closers.

 

Kemp has great numbers, but his team is 10 games under .500, The comparison to Dawson is valid, but Dawson didn't have anyone with numbers close.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Right now, I have to go with Prince. Braun has been great, but he's missed games and he has Fielder behind him. Teams employ lefty specialists who's sole job against the Brewers is to get Prince out. Day in and day out from the 7th inning on, all Prince sees are lefty specialists or closers.

 

Kemp has great numbers, but his team is 10 games under .500, The comparison to Dawson is valid, but Dawson didn't have anyone with numbers close.

I am not advocating using WAR for choosing MVP, but in 1987 Ozzie had a 7.5 WAR, and had a very good season at the plate considering he had 0 homeruns. For a guy with 0 homeruns to have 75 RBI, and over 100 runs is fantastic. He was also (obviously) a huge run saver on defense. If I were given a vote, Ozzie would have gotten mine, and I wouldn't have even had to toss it around before I picked him over Dawson.

[Brewbadger]

lcbj68c wrote:

At first glance at the title, I thought, "Really, Justin Upton?" But he makes a good point. If Upton continues to carry the Diamondbacks over the Giants into the playoffs, who could argue if his peripherals are near Braun or Fielder?

So Prince is beating Upton in every single pertinent offensive statistical category, and that guy has the audacity to not only pick Upton over Prince, but place Prince FIFTH on his list? Come on ESPN. And we all know the voters don't give a hoot about defense in the MVP voting - and even if they did, RF, in my opinion, is the least glamorous position out there.

[RockCoCougars]

"The numbers say: Tulowitzki"

 

This is enough to make me discount everything else this guy is saying. Fielder is beating him in nearly every offensive category. I'm assuming that he's going by WAR.

[lcbj68c]

So Prince is beating Upton in every single pertinent offensive statistical category, and that guy has the audacity to not only pick Upton over Prince, but place Prince FIFTH on his list? Come on ESPN. And we all know the voters don't give a hoot about defense in the MVP voting - and even if they did, RF, in my opinion, is the least glamorous position out there.

I don't disagree. What I am saying is that if Justin Upton remains close to the offense Fielder finishes with, (albeit remains behind), yet leads the D-backs to the playoffs over the Giants squad... Will he get more consideration as being more valuable (MVP) to his team than Fielder? Who has Braun, Weeks, Hart, and a pitching staff ranked just behind Philadelphia helping him out? I'm not agreeing, so much as to point out that the writer might have a valid point about voting with their hearts regarding Upton carrying his team to the playoffs over the defending World Champions as opposed to Fielder who might have top MVP candidates on his own team playing with him.

[Funketown]

So Prince is beating Upton in every single pertinent offensive statistical category, and that guy has the audacity to not only pick Upton over Prince, but place Prince FIFTH on his list? Come on ESPN. And we all know the voters don't give a hoot about defense in the MVP voting - and even if they did, RF, in my opinion, is the least glamorous position out there.

I'd give it to Upton before Fielder. Heck, I'd give it to any of Upton, Tulowitzki, Braun, Kemp, or McCutchen before Fielder. Fielder has been marginally better at the plate, but Upton is a much better defender and RF is definitely the more difficult position to play.

[RockCoCougars]

I'd give it to Upton before Fielder. Heck, I'd give it to any of Upton, Tulowitzki, Braun, Kemp, or McCutchen before Fielder. Fielder has been marginally better at the plate, but Upton is a much better defender and RF is definitely the more difficult position to play.

 

Defense is generally meaningless when it comes to the MVP debate. Maybe it comes into play if there is a tossup between two guys with pretty much the same offensive stats. Prince has Upton by a good clip in OPS and is ahead in all the Triple Crown categories. I don't see how you could have watched the Brewers play all season and not say Prince is MVP. He hasn't done too much since the break, but he carried the team for the better part of the first half.

 

I don't see where McCutchen has any place in the discussion. Look at his stats, he's one of the most overhyped players in the bigs right now. He's good, but nowhere near as good as you would think from listening to the press. Melky Cabrera is arguably having a better season, and you don't hear anything about him.

[Glennron]

Defense is generally meaningless when it comes to the MVP debate.

 

I don't see where McCutchen has any place in the discussion. Look at his stats, he's one of the most overhyped players in the bigs right now. He's good, but nowhere near as good as you would think from listening to the press. Melky Cabrera is arguably having a better season, and you don't hear anything about him.

If people didn't care about defense when it comes to awards, Ryan Braun would have unanimously won NL Rookie of the Year.

 

McCutchen is a fantastic defensive centerfielder with an OPS higher than the average MLB first baseman. He's a great, great player.

[RockCoCougars]

If people didn't care about defense when it comes to awards, Ryan Braun would have unanimously won NL Rookie of the Year.

 

This was probably at least partially due to the fact that for whatever reason, Tulo is 2nd in the NL behind Pujols in manlove. I'll give you that Braun was absolutely horrible at third, so I'm sure that did play a role.

 

McCutchen is a fantastic defensive centerfielder with an OPS higher than the average MLB first baseman. He's a great, great player.

 

I wouldn't go that far. He's good, but not great. He's just gotten a lot of play this season because he was the 'face' of the media's feel good team of the year.

[Funketown]

Defense is generally meaningless when it comes to the MVP debate. Maybe it comes into play if there is a tossup between two guys with pretty much the same offensive stats. Prince has Upton by a good clip in OPS and is ahead in all the Triple Crown categories. I don't see how you could have watched the Brewers play all season and not say Prince is MVP. He hasn't done too much since the break, but he carried the team for the better part of the first half.

Unfortunately you're right about defense. I don't think Upton will receive more votes than Fielder, but if I were voting Upton would be in my top five, while Fielder would probably just miss the top five.

 

I think you're giving Fielder to much credit. His bat is without a doubt top 5 in the league, but he is a bad defender at first base. Braun plays (marginally) superior defense in a harder position and has put up a similar batting line.

[RockCoCougars]

I think you're giving Fielder to much credit. His bat is without a doubt top 5 in the league, but he is a bad defender at first base.

 

I hear you on the defense, but I think that he still gets MVP if the season ends now. Braun has been catching up a little. I'm a homer, but I'd vote them 1-2 right now. I don't think splitting the vote will be an issue, because the writers go 1st to 10th.