National League MVP 2011: Braun = MVP! (reply #318)

[Ennder]

Just about anything but three stats that have very little to do with how good a player is when taken out of context. It is very easy to lead the league in AVG or HR or RBI and not be anywhere near the best player in baseball, it is still plausible to lead in all three and not be even top 10 or so. If you want him to win MVP look at things like OPS etc first and not secondary stats. In this case Kemp is a very worthy player but to say that winning the triple crown should be an auto MVP is just completely off base.

If you lead the league in both average and homeruns, I would imagine it's all but a lock that you'll lead the league in SLG% as well. And unless the player takes a Yuni B bad amount of walks, he's also going to be top 3-5 in OBP% at worst. I just can't foresee a scenario where such a player would only be 'top ten or so' unless you HEAVILY weight defensive runs.

This really has very little to do with the discussion but is what I've come to expect I guess. Yes a player can hit .330 with 40 HR, 120 RBI and just not hit many doubles, not take many walks and be a horrible fielder and not be one of the top 10 players in baseball, it is very plausible. It also really has nothing at all to do with the discussion at hand.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Just about anything but three stats that have very little to do with how good a player is when taken out of context. It is very easy to lead the league in AVG or HR or RBI and not be anywhere near the best player in baseball, it is still plausible to lead in all three and not be even top 10 or so. If you want him to win MVP look at things like OPS etc first and not secondary stats. In this case Kemp is a very worthy player but to say that winning the triple crown should be an auto MVP is just completely off base.

If you lead the league in both average and homeruns, I would imagine it's all but a lock that you'll lead the league in SLG% as well. And unless the player takes a Yuni B bad amount of walks, he's also going to be top 3-5 in OBP% at worst. I just can't foresee a scenario where such a player would only be 'top ten or so' unless you HEAVILY weight defensive runs.

This really has very little to do with the discussion but is what I've come to expect I guess. Yes a player can hit .330 with 40 HR, 120 RBI and just not hit many doubles, not take many walks and be a horrible fielder and not be one of the top 10 players in baseball, it is very plausible. It also really has nothing at all to do with the discussion at hand.

I suppose it's plausible. I wouldn't say it's 'very' plausible, not at all. And I also wouldn't say it's not relevant to the discussion. And I'm also really sorry for knocking this thread way off course. Yeesh

[Ennder]

Sorry but it gets annoying every time a discussion comes up someone has to nitpick some comment that is secondary to the main point.

 

Braun is also pretty close to triple crown numbers and he is 6th in WAR for hitters in baseball and if he were a little weaker fielder he would fall to 13th. Ellsbury doesn't lead in a single triple crown stat and is tops in baseball in WAR. Pujols isn't really that far off the triple crown pace and he is 22nd in baseball in WAR. There are tons of scenarios where you could win the triple crown and not be one of the top 10 players in the game, especially if you include pitchers.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Sorry but it gets annoying every time a discussion comes up someone has to nitpick some comment that is secondary to the main point.

 

Braun is also pretty close to triple crown numbers and he is 6th in WAR for hitters in baseball and if he were a little weaker fielder he would fall to 13th. Ellsbury doesn't lead in a single triple crown stat and is tops in baseball in WAR. Pujols isn't really that far off the triple crown pace and he is 22nd in baseball in WAR. There are tons of scenarios where you could win the triple crown and not be one of the top 10 players in the game, especially if you include pitchers.

I wasn't trying to be nitpicky.....honestly. I read your comment and thought about it for a minute, and then it was just a thought that if a guy was leading his league in AVG and homers, unless he's got a TON more at bats than anyone else, he's almost certainly leading in SLG and close to the top in OBP. There's also an easy explanation for why Pujols is down the list on WAR, and that's that he missed a few weeks, and WAR is a counting stat.

 

I'm not going to nitpick WAR too much, I use it probably a little more often than I should, but I still don't think enough of the advanced defensive metrics to put that much weight in them on a single year basis.

 

What it boils down to for me is this.........if Matt Kemp is deserving of the MVP at .331, why wouldn't he be at .328?

 

The answer is simple. Writers criteria for voting is kinda screwy. Some base team winning above all else. Some will base it on mystical milestones that in the statistical scheme of things, are meaningless. Triple Crown is a fabulous achievement, no doubt, but when it's THAT close between 2 guys, those .0003 points of batting average honestly shouldn't make the difference.

 

For what it's worth, every batting triple crown winner in the modern age (post 1901) is in the HOF. Something to think about anyways.

[homer]

I would say that any player who is in the top 3 in RBI, HR, and AVG is probably among the top five most valuable based on whatever other metrics you want to use. Kinda like if a pitcher has 25 quality starts in a year he's more than likely going to have decent numbers across the board even though a quality start in and of itself isn't all that impressive.

I think you are completely wrong here but rather than nitpick lets look at a real world example. If Kemp ends the season hitting .003 off of the lead league in average should that really change whether he is MVP or not, should falling just short by a really small margin change who is most valuable? Just being the triple crown guy shouldn't win or lose it, being just shy in all 3 should most likely still place him heavily in the running but gaining small amounts in all 3 making him the triple crown guy should never be what pushes him into the MVP, it is just silly.

OK, that side of the argument I can understand. But I would like to know how the guys who have won the triple crown ended up in terms of metrics you use to judge their value. When Yaz won he had a WAR of 12.2 - 10th best all time. Frank Robinson led the league in WAR when he won it in 1966. I don't have time to go back through all the winners but if you lead the league in HR and BA you are more than likely going to lead in OPS, OPS+, SLG, etc. You would have to be a complete slug on defense to bring those numbers down to a point where you wouldn't be in the top five most valuable.

[jjfanec]

I know very little about defense stats and which ones really seem to matter, so I was wondering if someone could show where Braun sits statistically as an NL LF. He seems to be middle of the pack in range factor and zone rating. He is at the top of Fielding Percentage but that stat doesn't seem to matter a lot.

[topper09er]

It is very easy to lead the league in AVG or HR or RBI and not be anywhere near the best player in baseball, it is still plausible to lead in all three and not be even top 10 or so.

First off I agree the triple crown should not = auto MVP, but I think you are undervaluing how impressive it is. Can you list one example of a player in the top 3 triple crown categories and not a top 10 player in the league?

 

The only ones I can think of are the extreme examples of 1995 Dante Bichette, but that is pretty easily explained by Coors (get ready for this WAR haters!)

.340 (3rd NL)

40 HR (1st NL)

128 (1st NL)

 

1.8 WAR

 

And Chuck Klein 1931, again heavily inflated by the Baker Bowl

.337 (4th NL)

31 HR (1st NL)

121 RBI (1st NL)

 

4.5 WAR

 

 

It seems like these players are overrated by the triple crown because of their park, not necessarily the stats themselves. Infact, the only times I can see that a player led in batting and HR (forget RBIs) in the live ball era are the triple crown winners plus Ted Williams 1941 and Babe Ruth 1924.

 

If you hit a lot of HRs you walk a lot, and if you have a high average and walk a lot, plus hit lots of dingers you would have to be a historically bad defender to not be a top player in the league.

[Ennder]

Walks and defense are certainly the key factors since they aren't accounted for at all in the triple crown stats while most other significant stats are at least partially reflected in the triple crown stats.

[topper09er]

With 2 games left:

Reyes .33396

Braun .33393

Kemp .324

 

If Kemp goes 8-8 he will finish at .3328.

 

I assume they will both start tomorrow being tied, but Reyes plays at 1 PM on Wednesday and Braun plays at night. The Brewers magic number to clinch over AZ is 2, so if they don't lock it up tomorrow Braun will start on Wednesday. If they have nothing to play for on Weds I'm not sure what would happen, it would be pretty awesome to see Braun start the game with the batting title in hand, but pretty lame if he sat out.

[RockCoCougars]

Kemp is basically out of the Triple Crown equation now. He's not going to catch two guys and 10 points in 2 games. I think Braun is back in the lead for MVP again at this point. Kemp has had a slightly better offensive season, but none of his numbers are that far ahead of Braun. I think the playoff run cinches it for Braun.

 

As for the batting crown, if Braun is leading going into Wednesday night and the Brewers have #2 locked up, I hope he sits out. Willie Wilson did this to Robin in '82 and Higuera lost the ERA crown in '88? due to Allan Anderson doing the same. Turnabout is fair play.

[markedman5]

No reason for Braun to play Weds and risk injury if we have the 2 seed locked up.

 

 

None of the starters should play in that scenario.

[dlk9s]

Here's how RR should handle it if the #2 seed is locked up heading into Wednesday:

 

He should submit his lineup early, before Reyes' results are known, leaving Braun out of the lineup. If Braun has the BA lead, leave him out of the lineup, using the reasoning that he's giving him an extra day of rest and giving the bench guys some playing time. If he is behind and has a realistic shot to catch Reyes, put him back in the lineup, saying that he wants to give Braun the chance to win the BA.

[fondybrewfan]

I am not so sure that Kemp isn't the favorite right now to win MVP.

 

He has 5 more HRs, 12 more RBI's, and 9 more steals. Braun has a 10 point cushion on AVE and a 16 point cushion on OPS. You all know how voters love the counting stats and I am sure most won't even notice that Braun missed 10 games or so.

 

I will not be shocked at all if Kemp edges out Braun regardless of if Braun wins the batting title.

 

My Top 10 Vote would be:

 

1. Ryan Braun

2. Matt Kemp

3. Prince Fielder

4. Joey Votto

5. Jose Reyes

6. Albert Pujols

7. Lance Berkman

8. Justin Upton

9. Troy Toluwitzki

10. Clayton Kershaw

[Patrick425]

dlk9s[/b]]Here's how RR should handle it if the #2 seed is locked up heading into Wednesday:

 

He should submit his lineup early, before Reyes' results are known, leaving Braun out of the lineup. If Braun has the BA lead, leave him out of the lineup, using the reasoning that he's giving him an extra day of rest and giving the bench guys some playing time. If he is behind and has a realistic shot to catch Reyes, put him back in the lineup, saying that he wants to give Braun the chance to win the BA.

I'm sure many on here are aware of the situation in 1982. Willie Wilson went into the last day of the season with a .332 BA and Yount with a .328 BA. The Royals decided to sit Wilson thinking he would have a better chance of winning the batting crown that way. Yount played (in the division clinching game) and went 3 for 4 and ended up with a .331 average.

 

 

[RockCoCougars]

Here would be my unabashedly homer Top 10 ballot for NL MVP (not factoring in pitchers)

 

1. Braun

2. Fielder

3. Kemp

4. Pujols

5. Votto

6. Upton

7. Tulo

8. Victorino

9. Berkman

10. Reyes

[reillymcshane]

I couple of weeks ago I thought that if Braun won the batting title (and the Brewers won the division) he was pretty much a lock to win the MVP.

 

But you have to give Kemp credit. He's been a monster this month, and he's taken the lead in most major categories. Having this happen at the end of the season will likely give him some extra visability with voters that he wouldn't have had if this streak had happened in April or May.

 

However, I think there are enough voters that will NOT pick Kemp in the top spot because he isn't on a winning team. There will be a contingent of voters who will, for better or worse, say to themselves that the MVP should be on a winning team. Also, there may be some voters who will think that Kemp put up numbers 'when it didn't matter'. This group probably falls in line with the 'MVP should be on a winning team' group. But even if a few voters take that approach, it might give Braun a bit of an edge. I hope it does. If Braun could win the battle title, that would really help him.

 

In the end, I think that people will look at Braun and Kemp and see that they are very close in most areas. And then they'll pick Braunie first because he's on a winning team and has produced in the heat of a pennant race.

[RightFieldCoder]

I think it will be like Braun's RoY win. It will be (one of) the closest vote ever, and you can't fault any of the voters (unless someone does something stupid by not voting one of them #1) for picking one over the other. I really hope Braun wins, but won't be upset if Kemp wins it. Both men deserve it for the years they put up.

[Glennron]

For the record, if the Dodgers win one more game they'll officially be a "winning team." I know one or two games over .500 isn't what people imply when they use that term, but it's not like we're talking about a player on the Astros or Twins or something.

[sdcheezhd]

I had dinner with a Dodger season ticket holder last night and mentioned to him that the Padres announcers (mostly Leitner) were solidly for Braun because it is Most Valuable Player not Most Outstanding Player and how valuable can you be if your team doesn't win. His response, the Dodgers are over .500 so they're winners right? I think "winning" means are you helping your team win meaningful games in September and Kemp's monster month has come in a month of meaningless games (for the Dodgers; as someone mentioned the 3 run HR made him our MVP for the night). My friend acknowledges it's going to be tough for Kemp for MVP although he thinks Kershaw is a lock for Cy Young (that's a stretch but I didn't argue).

[RockCoCougars]

I think Kershaw should be the pick for the CYA. I think he's had the best year by an NL pitcher by far. Kemp has just been slightly better than Braun in my view, so I'd vote for the playoff bound guy.

[Team Canada]

I'm not sure how you can say Kershaw has been better "by far".

[young guns]

Did Prince just win the MVP?

[DuWayne Steurer]

Did Prince just win the MVP?

No. He probably solidified his hold on third place, if it was even in doubt.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm not sure how you can say Kershaw has been better "by far".

He's leading the league in WHIP, ERA, strikeouts and wins without the benefit of playing on the Philly juggernaut. 21-5 on a team with an 81-78 record? Hands down choice if I've ever seen one.

[tristarscoop]

I think Prince might have just handed Braun the MVP. Kemp no longer leading in HR, ten points behind in AVG. Only leads in RBI. I think Kemp's case isn't as strong without triple crown.