Casey McGehee's struggles: how much leash does he get?

[logan82]

Non-tendering is still a possibility. Teams have until December 12th.

[JJHardy7]

True logan. I guess it boils down to if Casey comes back or not and the plan for either option. I really hope it's not Casey > JHJ. If both are gone, I hope we have a good plan for a backup the quality that JHJ is.

[wisniewski]

There's no way Casey should even be a starter on opening day. I don't see how losing JHJ, saying you're out on Prince, and giving Casey an everyday job improves this team. I really, really hope something else is going to happen. It would've made a lot more sense to non-tender Casey, sign JHJ, and have Green and JHJ split some time at 3B. That makes almost too much sense.

Couldn't agree more. Letting JHJ go, but giving McGehee another chance is ridiculous. McGehee is fools gold, and just a terrible, terrible baseball player. He should be working at Lowes.

 

Honestly, part of me feels like Melvin has been conditioning the fans since the season ended to get accept the fact that the Brewers aren't going to spend any money. If you read all of his public statements since the NLCS ended all the signs are there, and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised. If any of you guys follow hockey, it's exactly the path the Nashville Predators went. After coming so close to advancing to the Western Conference Finals last year, all they needed to add was one 'legit' first line scorer, and they would have been a force in the West. So, what did they do? Not only did they NOT add that scorer, they subtracted other talent and took chances on bargain basement waiver savers. They went from having 9 million in cap space (last year) to having 14 million in cap space this year!

 

I can conceivably see the Brewers using this season to 'save' money. Just a feeling I get.

[trwi7]

wisniewski wrote:

---

Couldn't agree more. Letting JHJ go, but giving McGehee another chance is ridiculous. McGehee is fools gold, and just a terrible, terrible baseball player. He should be working at Lowes.

Honestly, part of me feels like Melvin has been conditioning the fans since the season ended to get accept the fact that the Brewers aren't going to spend any money. If you read all of his public statements since the NLCS ended all the signs are there, and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised. If any of you guys follow hockey, it's exactly the path the Nashville Predators went. After coming so close to advancing to the Western Conference Finals last year, all they needed to add was one 'legit' first line scorer, and they would have been a force in the West. So, what did they do? Not only did they NOT add that scorer, they subtracted other talent and took chances on bargain basement waiver savers. They went from having 9 million in cap space (last year) to having 14 million in cap space this year!

I can conceivably see the Brewers using this season to 'save' money. Just a feeling I get.

Not to change the topic but they kind of had to to save money for Rinne, Suter and Weber.

[wisniewski]

wisniewski wrote:

---

Couldn't agree more. Letting JHJ go, but giving McGehee another chance is ridiculous. McGehee is fools gold, and just a terrible, terrible baseball player. He should be working at Lowes.

Honestly, part of me feels like Melvin has been conditioning the fans since the season ended to get accept the fact that the Brewers aren't going to spend any money. If you read all of his public statements since the NLCS ended all the signs are there, and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised. If any of you guys follow hockey, it's exactly the path the Nashville Predators went. After coming so close to advancing to the Western Conference Finals last year, all they needed to add was one 'legit' first line scorer, and they would have been a force in the West. So, what did they do? Not only did they NOT add that scorer, they subtracted other talent and took chances on bargain basement waiver savers. They went from having 9 million in cap space (last year) to having 14 million in cap space this year!

I can conceivably see the Brewers using this season to 'save' money. Just a feeling I get.

Not to change the topic but they kind of had to to save money for Rinne, Suter and Weber.

LOL, yeah, talk to me when the re-sign Suter or Weber long term. Neither will happen, but I'm sure you can continue to dream. Suter will leave NSH after this season, I can assure you. Poile will probably have to move him at the deadline, because Ryan Suter is positively not coming back. And Nashville's ONLY saving grace with Weber is he is still RFA after this one year arb award because he would be gone too.

 

I digress.

[MNBrew]

My guess is that he'll get a shot in spring training to win a job. If he doesn't, he can be non-tendered at that point. I can't imagine that many teams will be interested in trading for him (though weirder things have happened in MLB).

Since this thread got its "bump" today, I went back a page to get caught up. Invader, where did you get the idea he could be non-tendered in spring training? The arby-offering deadline is next week.

 

I'm not a Casey apologist but I'm also convinced he pressed a ton last year and only compounded the issues exponentially that were NEVER right in ST to begin with. And I also believe several teams would line up to take him if the Brewers would put him on the market. I'm not convinced he'd bring a great return. But he's exactly the type of guy tons of teams would want.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't think teams would line up for him. He offers very little on defense & is an average righty bat at best.

[RockCoCougars]

What is McGehee's arby number estimated to be (I remember seeing $3 million possibly?)? I don't see how he would be worth much more than $2 MM next year, but if they go through the process, there is no doubt that he will get more.

[cwolf2012]

I think the odds are very good that his performance in 2012 ends up somewhere between 2011 and 09-10 levels. He's not as bad as he was last year, and he's not as good as he was in 09-10. There are worse options, but I still prefer Green to McGehee.

[The Truth]

I actually think Casey McGehee has a very good chance to bounce back and put up similar numbers to 2009/2010 ... I don't see how anyone can reasonably predict that Gamel or especially Green will be better than McGehee in 2012! At least McGehee has proven that he has hit MLB pitching in the past. (I do think Gamel will be a good solid .800-.820 OPS guy, by the way)

 

With Hairston/Counsell & Prince all gone, it is a complete no-brainer that McGehee will be back and the Brewers are hoping for the best with him

[Raw Biz]

I actually think Casey McGehee has a very good chance to bounce back and put up similar numbers to 2009/2010 ... I don't see how anyone can reasonably predict that Gamel or especially Green will be better than McGehee in 2012! At least McGehee has proven that he has hit MLB pitching in the past. (I do think Gamel will be a good solid .800-.820 OPS guy, by the way)

 

With Hairston/Counsell & Prince all gone, it is a complete no-brainer that McGehee will be back and the Brewers are hoping for the best with him

I hate when people use the argument about a guy has proven he's done something in the majors. Gamel/Green haven't "proven" anything because they haven't got a reasonable opportunity to do so. I don't want to turn this into an argument about whether Gamel has gotten an opportunity or not but obviously McGehee has had more opportunity to "prove" himself. The problem with McGehee is because his minor league numbers suggest 09/10 were out of nowhere. Gamel/Green both had way better minor league numbers than McGehee. They are also more athletic, younger, and seem to have better fundamentals. I'm not guaranteeing they will be better than McGehee in 2012 but there is a definite possibility.

[CheezWizHed]

I do think Gamel will be a good solid .800-.820 OPS guy, by the way

 

That would exceed McGehee's career OPS. That is how people predict Gamel and/or Green could be better.

 

2009: Age 26: 3 out of 4 months over 800 OPS. Finished with a 859 OPS.

2010: Age 27: 3 out of 6 months over 800 OPS. Finished with a 801 OPS.

2011: Age 28: 1 out of 6 months over 800 OPS. Finished with a 626 OPS.

 

I don't think Casey is as bad as last year, but I don't think he'll finish above 800 OPS again.

[reillymcshane]

I posted this in another thread, but thebrewersbar.com did a look at other players in Casey's situation to look at probabilities of him rebounding. It's just looking at similar circumstances - player with certain amount of at bats, hits at certain level, falls off dramatically - and then how did they rebound.

 

http://www.thebrewersbar....hee-bounceback-2012.html

 

The answer is that, based upon similar batters, Casey is unlikely to rebound to his previous performance level.

[reillymcshane]

Jim Breen at Bernie's Crew talked about McGehee and said that he swung at more pitches out of the zone last year, and took more called strikes than ever as well. It's a strong sign that he's guessing at pitches more than before.

 

Perhaps he's got some vision issues. Even a little deterioration in vision can affect a person.

 

No matter, it likely means he's having problems picking up pitches than the first couple of years.

 

I suspect it's a combination of a many things that have caused Casey's struggles. This includes the fact he's a tad slower (the guy looked heavier than ever last year). He's older and lost a little quickness. And pitchers have learned how to pitch him better.

 

Casey doesn't have a lot of room for error as a batter. He's not that athletic. A lot of little issues have combined to make him struggle. It no doubt affected him mentally. I think that caused him to start guessing more, since other things weren't working.

 

For his sake - and ours - I hope he trims down and gets into better shape. I hope he checks his eyes. He needs to come in to camp in optimum shape. If the guy can come in and hit .280 and get 15 HRs he's an asset. I don't expect .300.

[The Truth]

I hate when people use the argument about a guy has proven he's done something in the majors. Gamel/Green haven't "proven" anything because they haven't got a reasonable opportunity to do so. I don't want to turn this into an argument about whether Gamel has gotten an opportunity or not but obviously McGehee has had more opportunity to "prove" himself. The problem with McGehee is because his minor league numbers suggest 09/10 were out of nowhere. Gamel/Green both had way better minor league numbers than McGehee. They are also more athletic, younger, and seem to have better fundamentals. I'm not guaranteeing they will be better than McGehee in 2012 but there is a definite possibility.

Good point. I really didn't word my response carefully enough. In general I am in favor of using young prospects and giving them a chance, both because it balances out the payroll and because that is how a player develops. I do have high hopes for Gamel.

 

I'm not predicting that McGehee will be better than Green in 2012, instead just overstating the obvious that at least we know McGehee has hit MLB pitching before. i.e. we just really don't know about either of them. Green's minor league numbers are better than Casey's were and we could the extra LHB in the lineup.

[NievesNoNO]

There's no way Casey should even be a starter on opening day. I don't see how losing JHJ, saying you're out on Prince, and giving Casey an everyday job improves this team. I really, really hope something else is going to happen. It would've made a lot more sense to non-tender Casey, sign JHJ, and have Green and JHJ split some time at 3B. That makes almost too much sense.

Couldn't agree more. Letting JHJ go, but giving McGehee another chance is ridiculous. McGehee is fools gold, and just a terrible, terrible baseball player. He should be working at Lowes.

 

Honestly, part of me feels like Melvin has been conditioning the fans since the season ended to get accept the fact that the Brewers aren't going to spend any money. If you read all of his public statements since the NLCS ended all the signs are there, and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised. If any of you guys follow hockey, it's exactly the path the Nashville Predators went. After coming so close to advancing to the Western Conference Finals last year, all they needed to add was one 'legit' first line scorer, and they would have been a force in the West. So, what did they do? Not only did they NOT add that scorer, they subtracted other talent and took chances on bargain basement waiver savers. They went from having 9 million in cap space (last year) to having 14 million in cap space this year!

 

I can conceivably see the Brewers using this season to 'save' money. Just a feeling I get.

I think JHJ is being amazingly overrated. He's a nice utility player who was decent pickup for the Brewers when they needed a fill in. I'm not sure whether McGehee will bounce back or not but I'd be fine going in with Green and McGehee battling it out for the 3b job. McGehee has two seasons covering 1000 ab's of .800 OPS, while that's not great it's adequate production if he could get back there. Hairston has played 14 years and cracked .800 OPS once in a part-time role.

 

[Baldkin]

I think JHJ is being amazingly overrated. He's a nice utility player who was decent pickup for the Brewers when they needed a fill in. I'm not sure whether McGehee will bounce back or not but I'd be fine going in with Green and McGehee battling it out for the 3b job. McGehee has two seasons covering 1000 ab's of .800 OPS, while that's not great it's adequate production if he could get back there. Hairston has played 14 years and cracked .800 OPS once in a part-time role.

But Hairston plays above average defense at 5 positions and about average defense at SS and CF. McGehee plays a well below average 3B. Hairston's value is in his versatility and ability to fill in for both injuries and "I need a day off" guys. Right now, there is no one on the roster who can fill that spot, while last year, the Brewers had 3 guys who could (Counsell, Wilson, JHJ).

 

He'll be missed, a lot, but it sounds like he wanted to go back to the west coast.

[wisniewski]

I think JHJ is being amazingly overrated. He's a nice utility player who was decent pickup for the Brewers when they needed a fill in. I'm not sure whether McGehee will bounce back or not but I'd be fine going in with Green and McGehee battling it out for the 3b job. McGehee has two seasons covering 1000 ab's of .800 OPS, while that's not great it's adequate production if he could get back there. Hairston has played 14 years and cracked .800 OPS once in a part-time role.

With all due respect, I think you are 'amazingly overrating' if McGehee can get back to where he was. JHJ isn't lights out at the plate but he knows how to work counts and he knows how to maximize his at bats. McGehee is just a terrible baseball player. A garden variety, dime a dozen player that doesn't do anything well, and one who's skills are not simply declining - they've fallen off a cliff. He had one good season, and for whatever reason is able to live off that forever.

 

If you don't watch the games, and understand the differences and nuances to JHJ and McGehee at the plate, I'm not sure what else I can tell you. JHJ gives this team great depth at many positions and is a wonderful option off the bench in several situations. Will this team succeed without JHJ? Of course. It's silly to think otherwise. But McGehee should not be in this starting lineup.

[TooLiveBrew]

Looking for some Pujols stats, I accidentally sorted the wOBA column on FanGraphs' 2011 batting leaders page to the worst guys in the league, and saw Casey McGehee's name second from the top. That made me sad. Yuni's was fourth from the top.

[bobskube]

Casey lost some bat speed this year. That is something hard to get back. I don't expect much out of him and hope RRR doesn't force him too many ABs.

[logan82]

Looking for some Pujols stats, I accidentally sorted the wOBA column on FanGraphs' 2011 batting leaders page to the worst guys in the league, and saw Casey McGehee's name second from the top. That made me sad. Yuni's was fourth from the top.

Remember how bad it looked when Fielder, McGehee and Yuni had all their stats averaged as one.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't remember. Seriously.

[RightFieldCoder]

Fielder, McGehee, Betancourt 2011 combined:

1876 PA, .259/.327/.433/.759 with really bad defense

 

Justin Upton 2011:

640 PA, .243/.331/.429/.759 with good (I think) defense

 

So upgrading 3B and SS can offset what we'll lose at 1B. SS is the same offense but now plus defense. If we can upgrade 3B and get someone that can throw from first to home, the team might not miss the loss of Fielder.

[reillymcshane]

Fielder, McGehee, Betancourt 2011 combined:

1876 PA, .259/.327/.433/.759 with really bad defense

 

Justin Upton 2011:

640 PA, .243/.331/.429/.759 with good (I think) defense

 

So upgrading 3B and SS can offset what we'll lose at 1B. SS is the same offense but now plus defense. If we can upgrade 3B and get someone that can throw from first to home, the team might not miss the loss of Fielder.

This is important. We are not just replacing Fielder's production. We are replacing a combination of Fielder, McGehee and Yuni (you need to consider offense and defense). Let's say we can get a .800 OPS out of 1B, and a .750 OPS out of 3B. That's still not replacing the offense of Fielder/McGehee. But it's getting reasonably close. And when you consider the improved defense, we can close the gap even more.

 

I don't expect Gonzalez/Green/Gamel in 2012 to be better than Fielder/Yuni/McGehee of 2011. It could even be a disaster. But if the young players step up, get regular playing time, are given time to grow into their jobs, I think they can do okay. I think it's a good risk to take.

[logan82]

I don't remember. Seriously.

I think you were blocking it from your memory.