Casey McGehee's struggles: how much leash does he get?

[logan82]

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Season Team O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% O-Contact% Z-Contact% Contact% Zone% F-Strike% SwStr%

2009 Brewers 19.8 % --- 64.1 % --- 42.5 % --- 62.8 % --- 88.6 % --- 82.7 % --- 51.2 % --- 63.2 % --- 7.1 %

2010 Brewers 29.5 % --- 67.2 % --- 47.0 % --- 76.7 % --- 87.5 % --- 83.9 % --- 46.5 % --- 59.3 % --- 7.4 %

2011 Brewers 29.2 % --- 60.8 % --- 43.6 % --- 75.3 % --- 87.4 % --- 83.0 % --- 45.6 % --- 63.1 % --- 7.5 %

 

The only things that really stick out to me are he is swinging at fewer pitches overall and he is seeing more first pitch strikes.

[nate82]

He's been consistently swinging at pitches up near his head, as well as way low and outside. Then he takes pitches right down the middle because he's clearly guessing. When he actually does swing at a decent pitch, he can't square up on it. His balance is off and his bat speed looks atrocious. It's been nothing but strike-outs, lazy fly balls to right, and weak grounders to the left side.

First part is incorrect.

Here is a little guessing game. Guess which one is McGehee's out of zone swing percentage. Is it A.) 29.2% B.) 40.6% C.) 34.7% D.) 31.6%

He maybe out of balance and his bat speed may have slowed down which would explain for the poor hitting by McGehee.

It is correct, though. His O-swing% is 29.2%, but his Z-swing% is only 60.8% (career low). Only 46% of his pitches seen are in the zone (also a career low), so he is seeing more non-strikes and swinging at them at the same % as he has in his career -- hence, he's swung at way more balls this year than in previous seasons.

 

Casey has completely lost the ability to hit for power, his ISO is lower than every player with 200 PA's on the team, except for Kotsay.

But Casey's O-swing% and Z-swing% are within his career norms. His Zone% is only 1.1% less than last year so that doesn't really explain anything at all. It probably has more to do with McGehee not generating any power on the pitches that he has been swinging at in the zone than anything else. His zone contact percentage is the same as previous years so it is not like he is swinging at bad pitches all the time and that is the reason why he is struggling this year. I believe the problem with Casey is that he is not generating any power at all in his swings when he is making contact in the zone.

[JohnBriggs12]

Here's 2 more lines:

 

.216/.262/.376 .638

 

.254/.299/.360 .659

 

What do those lines have in common with the others?

 

They were also produced by starters on Brewer playoff teams. The top line is Ted Simmons, the everyday catcher from 1981. The bottom is Charlie Moore, the everyday RF from 1982.

 

The lesson? Virtually every team, even the successful ones, have players that under-perform in a given year or are below average offensively. Successful teams are driven by the offensive stars and the pitching. This team has won 90 games and could end up with more wins than any team in Brewer history. My angst over McGehee is minimal given that fact.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Here's 2 more lines:

 

.216/.262/.376 .638

 

.254/.299/.360 .659

 

What do those lines have in common with the others?

 

They were also produced by starters on Brewer playoff teams. The top line is Ted Simmons, the everyday catcher from 1981. The bottom is Charlie Moore, the everyday RF from 1982.

 

The lesson? Virtually every team, even the successful ones, have players that under-perform in a given year or are below average offensively. Successful teams are driven by the offensive stars and the pitching. This team has won 90 games and could end up with more wins than any team in Brewer history. My angst over McGehee is minimal given that fact.

None of which dispels the notion that if there's an upgrade available, you should use it.

[Eddiehitsthefoulpole]

Casey stands too far off of the plate. You can't hit for power when you are off of the plate like that. I also think that he just doesn't see the outside pitch very well because of standing so far off of the plate. He probably felt like he was being tied up on inside pitches early in the season. He has solved that. Since Edwin Jackson nobody bothers pitching him in. They don't need too.

[Robideaux]

The lesson? Virtually every team, even the successful ones, have players that under-perform in a given year or are below average offensively. Successful teams are driven by the offensive stars and the pitching. This team has won 90 games and could end up with more wins than any team in Brewer history. My angst over McGehee is minimal given that fact.

So to paraphrase, you are saying that because the 1981/1982 Brewers had a bad offensive player in their lineup and still made the playoffs, the 2011 Brewers should be content with having a bad player in the lineup (despite an obvious upgrade rotting on the bench)?

 

To follow down this specious path, couldn't I say that the 1981/1982 Brewers prove that you can make the playoffs with a serious hole in the lineup but you can't win the World Series?

[The Truth]

Its relatively scary that Roenicke will be starting both McGehee & Betancourt in the playoffs and batting them one right after each other, 6 & 7. If Lucroy doesn't find his swing that is going to be one seriously brutal bottom of the order...

[Roderick]

Its relatively scary that Roenicke will be starting both McGehee & Betancourt in the playoffs and batting them one right after each other, 6 & 7. If Lucroy doesn't find his swing that is going to be one seriously brutal bottom of the order...

I would rather they be back to back (and Weeks getting nothing to hit) rather than putting either of them higher than 6.

[RockCoCougars]

So to paraphrase, you are saying that because the 1981/1982 Brewers had a bad offensive player in their lineup and still made the playoffs, the 2011 Brewers should be content with having a bad player in the lineup (despite an obvious upgrade rotting on the bench)?

 

This board would have had a field day with Roy Howell back in the day.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Got almighty his Casey bad. I would drop him down to 8th. Maybe we would see more fastballs ahead of the pitcher. The fewer AB's he gets the better. Green has cooled off so I'm not sure he's much better.

[DougJones43]

Green has cooled off so I'm not sure he's much better.

It's pretty difficult to tell, because Green's playing time has been so inconsistent. He came up, and at first Roenicke refused to use him. Then he had a couple of pinch hits, so he "earned" his way into some starts. After that though he had a couple hitless games, and now it seems Roenicke is again very hesitant to give him any significant playing time.

 

I firmly believe that if Green started against almost all RHP, he would out-produce McGehee by a decent margin the rest of the way.

[Raw Biz]

Green has cooled off so I'm not sure he's much better.

It's pretty difficult to tell, because Green's playing time has been so inconsistent. He came up, and at first Roenicke refused to use him. Then he had a couple of pinch hits, so he "earned" his way into some starts. After that though he had a couple hitless games, and now it seems Roenicke is again very hesitant to give him any significant playing time.

 

I firmly believe that if Green started against almost all RHP, he would out-produce McGehee by a decent margin the rest of the way.

Not to mention 3 of Green's consecutive starts came against Carpenter, Halladay, and Worley. It's tough to do well against those guys to begin with and Green had to contend with inconsistent playing time.

[moofnelson]

So to paraphrase, you are saying that because the 1981/1982 Brewers had a bad offensive player in their lineup and still made the playoffs, the 2011 Brewers should be content with having a bad player in the lineup (despite an obvious upgrade rotting on the bench)?

 

This board would have had a field day with Roy Howell back in the day.

I hated Roy Howell. What did you bring his name up?

[FVBrewerFan]

Here's a tough call. Let's assume RR simply won't start Green in the playoffs- period. I don't think that's going out on a limb much. Then who do you want starting at SS/3B? I've thought about this a lot, and I've come up with Yuni as SS and JHJ at 3B. At least these guys put the ball in play moreso than McGehee. Plus when McGehee DOES put the ball in play, there's a chance it's a DP. Plus both Yuni and JHJ have better speed on the bases. Curious to see what others think.

[Baldkin]

I'd rather have McGehee and Hairston as it puts by far the better defensive alignment out there, and McGehee and Yuni are basically a wash on the season.

[DougJones43]

Here are the potential combinations, listed in order of which I think is best:

 

Green 3B / Hairston SS

...

Hairston 3B / Betancourt SS

McGehee 3B / Hairston SS

...

...

...

McGehee 3B / Betancourt SS

 

After McGehee's homerun yesterday, I believe he's implanted himself in the lineup through the end of the season (I think he may have been anyway, even without the homerun). Roenicke will see it as proof that he was correct in thinking McGehee is swinging the bat well and on the verge of a break-through.

 

I'd be shocked if we saw any combination other than McGehee/Betancourt come playoff time.

[DougJones43]

I'd rather have McGehee and Hairston as it puts by far the better defensive alignment out there, and McGehee and Yuni are basically a wash on the season.

I would think the defensive upgrade from McGehee to Hairston at 3B would be larger than the upgrade from Yuni to Hairston at SS.

[Baldkin]

Yuni has a 3 yr average UZR/150 of about -12. McGehee's 3 year average is about -2. He's actually in the positive this season. SS is more important than 3B defensively.... I'd just rather have McGehee.

[TooLiveBrew]

Plus McGehee has the higher offensive upside

[monty57]

Plus McGehee has the higher offensive upside

Yes, McGehee actually has had some success in his history, as opposed to Yuni who has been bad, is bad, and forever will be bad.

 

 

[FVBrewerFan]

True, but at least Yuni can put the ball in play. Sac Fly, get a runner to 3rd (even if it's an accident), get the occasional hit. I think he would have more success doing something helpful once in a while against the NL's very best pitchers. Whereas Strike3hee would offer almost nothing at the plate against the NL's best pitchers. I really don't think we need to be talking about McGehee's "upside" at this point in the season. It's pretty clear by now whatever he had in the past is long gone.

 

In fact, Betancourt DOES have an upside if you want to scoff at it or not. He had a hot streak after the Break, and is just as likely to have one as McGehee is. I realize this whole conversation is the very deinition of the lessor of two evils, I just like the fact the Yuni can at least make contact agianst just about any pitcher on a regular basis.

[logan82]

I just like the fact the Yuni can at least make contact agianst just about any pitcher on a regular basis.

 

So could most MLB hitters. They just prefer to actually try and make good contact instead of flailing at almost everything.

[TooLiveBrew]

In fact, Betancourt DOES have an upside if you want to scoff at it or not. He had a hot streak after the Break, and is just as likely to have one as McGehee is.

 

Betancourt's stunk for like the past 5 or 6 seasons running. McGehee was a very acceptable hitter for his position as recently as last season. The comparison isn't even close, really.

[FVBrewerFan]

Of course the comparison is close. Nobody cares what either player did last year or 5 years ago. Your rationale is the same as RR, which is why Green never got a legit shot to start all year. The old "Mcgehee is more likely to get hot" theory has died long ago.

[TooLiveBrew]

I really don't agree*. And I've advocated all season long for Green to be up & starting over McGehee... never been a McGehee fan.

 

 

EDIT: * don't agree that the comparison is close. I agree that I don't think McGehee is going to start hitting all of a sudden, but I definitely disagree that there's not a better chance of that happening than Betancourt suddenly getting hot.