Casey McGehee's struggles: how much leash does he get?

[danzig6767]

What does it look like if you remove the monster 3 HR day?

 

Like any other guy's stats when you take away their best days. Why take away that day? Didn't it happen? Take away Prince's two shots since the break and his OPS looks even worse. It happened so it counts.

Of course it counts, but I thought it was a really funny juxtaposition to give a small sample alert of 28 days when the sample alert should have been for 8 days with the one huge day having a massive impact. I'm not sure why he picked 28 days (I'm assuming he means games).

In the last 8 games he has an OPS of 1.286. In the 7 games prior to the 3 HR game, he had an OPS of .899 (very encouraging). In the 20 games prior to the 8 game hot streak, he had an OPS of .588. Why 28 days? I have no clue.

In defense of McGehee, i do think that over the last few weeks since the All-Star break, he has hit into an abnormal amount of bad luck outs. That's why even though his numbers weren't fully showing that Casey was hitting noticeably better, i did think he was hitting the ball better overall.

[TexasAggieBrewer]

I noticed Casey's BABIP on FanGraphs is .271, down 30 points from last season. Could this contribute to the off year?

[pitchleague]

I'm pretty sure that is a very big reason but doesn't tell the whole story.

[Tbadder]

I actually think that Casey will continue to come around into September; I however, do not know if that justified the Brewers unlimited leash with Casey, but it is what it is. I think what will be interesting now is if the Brewers call up Taylor Green a few days before Sept. 1.

And even more importantly, I hope the Brewers do give Green an honest chance to beat out Casey in Spring Training next year.

[igor67]

I agree and given that both Green and Gamel are lefties Casey could make a lot of sense as your back-up at both positions.

[1992casey]

Since the All Star Break:

 

113AB, .301 BA, .344 OBP, .451 SLG, .795 OPS

 

This looks like regression to the mean, depending on what you define the mean as.

[Glennron]

Since the All Star Break:

 

113AB, .301 BA, .344 OBP, .451 SLG, .795 OPS

 

This looks like regression to the mean, depending on what you define the mean as.

I think I'd feel more confident in him continuing his turnaround if his power numbers weren't so inflated by his 3 home run game. I know cherry picking stats can be silly and unfair to players, but without that game his slugging would be something like .390, and his OPS around .730.

[Invader3K]

Well, if Casey can keep his OPS around .750 or so the rest of the season, that would at least be acceptable and contributing to the offense.

[1992casey]

.750 is fine as it's in line with what other third basemen do and it's far from being a black hole. One might even feel safe in projecting that number. That doesn't mean that the Brewers shouldn't be considering other options, e.g. Green, for next year.

[jjfanec]

What I like is that he is at least hitting the ball a little harder from what I have seen. One of his outs last night was a really hard hit ball that Wright made a great play on and turned two. His BABIP was probably low in part because he was hitting a lot of weak grounder or pop flies. Now he is hitting the ball much harder. Hopefully it keeps up. When Weeks comes back Fielder will have real protection from Rickie or Corey. Casey can bat 6th. Hairston and Yuni should rotate but who knows if that will happen.

[Invader3K]

.750 is fine as it's in line with what other third basemen do and it's far from being a black hole. One might even feel safe in projecting that number. That doesn't mean that the Brewers shouldn't be considering other options, e.g. Green, for next year.

Agreed. I think what we're seeing with McGehee this season is about what we can expect going forward. The Brewers were probably hoping he could keep producing like he did in 2009-2010 and be a perennial All-Star threat. That is obviously not going to happen. Green will likely get a shot in Spring Training, and he should.

[DougJones43]

In case anybody is wondering, McGehee's line since the all-star break with the 3 HR game removed is: .282 AVG / .331 OBP / .358 SLG / .689 OPS

 

I know that game counted as much as any other, but just wanted to look at his other numbers as a point of reference since that game seems to be an outlier (McGehee has hit no other post all-star break homeruns). Even without that game, his OBP is still respectable, which is a good sign.

[DougJones43]

McGehee has been so awful, that I'm starting to believe he needs to be permanently removed from the lineup even more than Betancourt.

 

If Betancourt is going to keep playing everyday anyway (which appears to be the case), then Hairston/Green should play 3B the rest of the way. McGehee is just not even close to breaking through or being productive, no matter how much Bill Schroeder says otherwise. His bat speed is in the toilet.

[brewmann04]

You don't think RR is going to sit Casey ?

[burnzy24]

He is hitting .153 in the last 28 days, .091 in the past two weeks. That is the exact opposite of "close to breaking through." Yes, he needs to sit.

[Schlitz001]

Here's Roenicke on McGehee just before the game today (from Haudricourt):

 

Roenicke said both players are having enough good at-bats to stay in the lineup and that he doesn't just go on overall numbers.

 

"It's frustrating to (McGehee) because he feels good and his swing is good," said Roenicke. "I agree that his swing looks good. That's why it's surprising."

 

You can almost defend keeping Yuni in there, because with JHJ hurt, there's not really anyone better to step in, but I hate the fact that he defends their playing time by claiming that they are having good at bats. McGehee is having terrible at bats to the point that when he strikes out instead of grounding into a double play I breathe a sigh of relief. There is an option to replace a struggling McGehee a few nights a weeks. Why is Taylor Green not getting a few starts a week at this point?!?

[logan82]

The manager also said after the game that Weeks didn't quite look right at the plate yet.

[DougJones43]

I don't get what they're looking at when they say McGehee is putting together good at-bats and swings. He's been consistently swinging at pitches up near his head, as well as way low and outside. Then he takes pitches right down the middle because he's clearly guessing. When he actually does swing at a decent pitch, he can't square up on it. His balance is off and his bat speed looks atrocious. It's been nothing but strike-outs, lazy fly balls to right, and weak grounders to the left side.

[TooLiveBrew]

 AVG OBP SLG OPS .250 .268 .375 .643 .218 .264 .378 .642 .228 .285 .348 .633

One of these players is Carlos Gomez, the guy who draws the ire of just about all Brewers fans for being useless at the plate. Pretty sure everyone can guess who the other two are; if not, here's a hint: they're the players to whom Roenicke has given the third & fourth-most plate appearances on the roster. Further hint: the worst line is from the guy with the third-most PAs on the team.

[DougJones43]

Looking at those OBP numbers makes me feel gross and dirty.

[logan82]

 AVG OBP SLG OPS
.250 .268 .375 .643
.218 .264 .378 .642
.228 .285 .348 .633

One of these players is Carlos Gomez, the guy who draws the ire of just about all Brewers fans for being useless at the plate. Pretty sure everyone can guess who the other two are; if not, here's a hint: they're the players to whom Roenicke has given the third & fourth-most plate appearances on the roster. Further hint: the worst line is from the guy with the third-most PAs on the team.

The players write the lineup.

[nate82]

He's been consistently swinging at pitches up near his head, as well as way low and outside. Then he takes pitches right down the middle because he's clearly guessing. When he actually does swing at a decent pitch, he can't square up on it. His balance is off and his bat speed looks atrocious. It's been nothing but strike-outs, lazy fly balls to right, and weak grounders to the left side.

First part is incorrect.

Here is a little guessing game. Guess which one is McGehee's out of zone swing percentage. Is it A.) 29.2% B.) 40.6% C.) 34.7% D.) 31.6%

He maybe out of balance and his bat speed may have slowed down which would explain for the poor hitting by McGehee.

[Funketown]

http://www.german-shepherd-dog-breed-store.com/images/Long-dog-leash-for-tracking-walking-training-pulling.jpg http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQeVkEmcp0HBxnahEUgR4pO2AsXcG7S_M_DywQSJ1qPZ1nJgaP_

Ron Roenicke's McGehee Leash Brewerfan.net McGehee Leash

[DougJones43]

First part is incorrect.

The past handful of games he has been swinging at high pitches. I didn't mean he's been doing that all season, sorry if I didn't make that clear.

 

And I disagree that the leash among brewerfan posters has been short. Most people were fair and reasonably patient in waiting for McGehee to come around. We're talking about a guy with little athletic ability, who never really did anything in the minors to indicate he was as good of a hitter as he showed the past two seasons. And it's not like he's been just slightly below average or something, he's been a black hole in the lineup who continues to hit behind Prince in the #5 spot.

[Baldkin]

He's been consistently swinging at pitches up near his head, as well as way low and outside. Then he takes pitches right down the middle because he's clearly guessing. When he actually does swing at a decent pitch, he can't square up on it. His balance is off and his bat speed looks atrocious. It's been nothing but strike-outs, lazy fly balls to right, and weak grounders to the left side.

First part is incorrect.

Here is a little guessing game. Guess which one is McGehee's out of zone swing percentage. Is it A.) 29.2% B.) 40.6% C.) 34.7% D.) 31.6%

He maybe out of balance and his bat speed may have slowed down which would explain for the poor hitting by McGehee.

It is correct, though. His O-swing% is 29.2%, but his Z-swing% is only 60.8% (career low). Only 46% of his pitches seen are in the zone (also a career low), so he is seeing more non-strikes and swinging at them at the same % as he has in his career -- hence, he's swung at way more balls this year than in previous seasons.

 

Casey has completely lost the ability to hit for power, his ISO is lower than every player with 200 PA's on the team, except for Kotsay.