Casey McGehee's struggles: how much leash does he get?

[COBrewerfan]

Another fine example of why UZR and advanced defensive metrics should be taken with a grain of salt. There is no way he is the 8th best defensive 3b in the league with the 6th best range - which is where he currently ranks according to the advanced metrics. He'd be lucky to be out of the bottom 3 in either area.

This is exactly why players are never as good or as bad as people on here make them out to be. They use the same stats to bang on a player but decide the stats are no good when they don't support the argument. Yuni is nowhere near as bad as people say he is and Casey has struggled both with the bat and in the field, but is still somewhat serviceable. Not saying I would not take an upgrade for either but I would still make a trade for a lefty out of the bullpen first.

 

[danzig6767]

Another fine example of why UZR and advanced defensive metrics should be taken with a grain of salt. There is no way he is the 8th best defensive 3b in the league with the 6th best range - which is where he currently ranks according to the advanced metrics. He'd be lucky to be out of the bottom 3 in either area.

This is exactly why players are never as good or as bad as people on here make them out to be. They use the same stats to bang on a player but decide the stats are no good when they don't support the argument. Yuni is nowhere near as bad as people say he is and Casey has struggled both with the bat and in the field, but is still somewhat serviceable. Not saying I would not take an upgrade for either but I would still make a trade for a lefty out of the bullpen first.

Yes Betancourt is that bad and it's not like only Brewers fans have come to that conclusion.

 

As for McGehee, it certainly is possible that he could start hitting decent again and become serviceable. For nearly three straight months though, he hasn't just "struggled" a little and been somewhat serviceable, he's literally been one of the least productive everyday players in all of baseball during this very long roughly 75 game stretch.

 

Given that Melvin has been pretty clear in stating that McGehee has a near infinite leash to turn things around this year, and neither Gamel/Green will be called up before September regardless if Casey kept hitting like a backup catcher, we obviously need him to start hitting again like a third-baseman instead of Will Nieves. He had a nice game tonight and hopefully it's something he can repeat more often than once every 10 games or so, but i'm going to be skeptical until it actually happens because over the last few months almost without fail, each time Casey has had a quality game, the media starts talking about how maybe he's turning things around. Then he'll go the next 10 games with something like 8-40 at the plate with zero extra base hits.

 

After about 75 games of McGehee being the definition of a black hole in the lineup, it simply is going to take much more than one double in tonight's game for me to be reasonably convinced that he's on his way back to being at least somewhat serviceable.

[gregmag]

This is exactly why players are never as good or as bad as people on here make them out to be. They use the same stats to bang on a player but decide the stats are no good when they don't support the argument. Yuni is nowhere near as bad as people say he is and Casey has struggled both with the bat and in the field, but is still somewhat serviceable.

"People on here" presumably excluding you, whose pronouncements the rest of us are, what, supposed to take on faith?

[DuWayne Steurer]

Another fine example of why UZR and advanced defensive metrics should be taken with a grain of salt. There is no way he is the 8th best defensive 3b in the league with the 6th best range - which is where he currently ranks according to the advanced metrics. He'd be lucky to be out of the bottom 3 in either area.

This is exactly why players are never as good or as bad as people on here make them out to be. They use the same stats to bang on a player but decide the stats are no good when they don't support the argument. Yuni is nowhere near as bad as people say he is and Casey has struggled both with the bat and in the field, but is still somewhat serviceable. Not saying I would not take an upgrade for either but I would still make a trade for a lefty out of the bullpen first.

I may get a warning or whatever for this, but good lordy, don't you ever get tired of standing on the pedestal and telling the rest of this community what we're doing wrong? I don't know if you're getting tired of doing it, but I can see from the comments that I'm not the only one getting tired of seeing it.

[rluzinski]

Another fine example of why UZR and advanced defensive metrics should be taken with a grain of salt.

I've said this many times but even a season's worth of UZR is a relatively small sample. It's analogous to half a season of batting stats. On top of that, there is some subjectiveness with recording the vector and velocity of the ball. I think there is little value to in-season UZR.

For whatever it's worth, I don't think McGehee has been that bad defensively. Most thirdbasemen show little range. That is a function of the average thirdbasemen not having much range and also not having much opportunity to display it (balls get there so fast). Do I think he's average defensively? Probably not. I don't think he's a liability there, however.

 

[igor67]

I've always had a dislike for the stat heads that insist on using integrated photon counts to measure player performance. Of course they try to sneakily mask there numbers with verbose prose, but measuring photons is still measuring photons. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[TooLiveBrew]

Apologies if this has been posted elsewhere:

 

Casey McGehee was nearly finished discussing his big day and the

Brewers’ big win Wednesday when he released the all points bulletin.

“I’ve got to tell you guys a story before you go,” McGehee told reporters. “It was pretty cool.”

Hey, the guy had just delivered three homers in a 10-5 win over the

Cardinals that grew the Brewers’ National League Central lead to 3 1/2

games. You stick around and listen.

“This morning, I got to meet a little kid. His name’s Clayton,”

McGehee said. “Clayton was being pretty shy and I kept asking him, ‘Do

you have any questions for me?’ He wouldn’t ask me anything. Finally,

jokingly, his dad asks me, ‘Why don’t you hit a home run for him?’”

McGehee scoffed. He’d hit five home runs all season, none since July 6 and one in his last 63 games.

“It it was that easy, I would have had one by now,” McGehee answered.

“How about we just go for I don’t screw anything up for the kid today?

That was good enough for him.”

But wouldn’t you know it? McGehee hit a go-ahead, two-run home run

off Cardinals starter Edwin Jackson in the first inning. McGehee hit

another go-ahead, two-run homer off Jackson in the third for his second

career multi-homer game, and a solo shot in the seventh for what McGehee

believes is the first three-homer game of his life.

So, if you’re the young Brewers fan named Clayton, seven years old or

so, and you chatted with McGehee on Wednesday morning, he’d like to see

you again.

“I want to bring him to Houston with me, and then we’re going to go

to St. Louis,” said McGehee, perhaps joking, perhaps not, about the

team’s upcoming road trip. “I want to get him a locker — we have a

little space right here. Hopefully, we’re going to track Clayton down.”

From McCalvey's blog

[dlk9s]

I was just coming to post that story. I love how McGehee still keeps some sort of a sense of humor about his struggles this season.

 

Also, one of the comments on the blog page: "Clayton....I'd like you to meet Craig Counsell."

[The Truth]

Small sample alert but in the last 28 days Casey is batting .319 with a .358 OBP (.858 OPS)

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

They found Clayton...the new Brewers rabbit foot!

 

http://www.livinglakecoun...taffblogs/126744848.html

 

Nothing but good things coming out of Sussex!

 

More from Adam McCalvy, including the backstory on young Clayton's health issues...

 

 

http://brewersbeat.mlblog...urns-bright-for-clayton/

[Ayt]

Small sample alert but in the last 28 days Casey is batting .319 with a .358 OBP (.858 OPS)

What does it look like if you remove the monster 3 HR day?

[Thurston Fluff]

What does it look like if you remove the monster 3 HR day?

 

Like any other guy's stats when you take away their best days. Why take away that day? Didn't it happen? Take away Prince's two shots since the break and his OPS looks even worse. It happened so it counts.

[TooLiveBrew]

Past 28 games, prior to yesterday's awesomeness: .651 OPS

[rluzinski]

I just look at updated ZiPS projections to see how much recent performance should affect my expectations going forward. Not the gospel, obviously, but it's way more objective:

 

McGehee: .263/.317/.407/.727

 

Couple that with below average defense and he still projects to be well below average but he's also getting paid league minimum.

[Thurston Fluff]

Couple that with below average defense and he still projects to be well below average but he's also getting paid league minimum.

 

What is average this season for third base?

[reillymcshane]

If Casey can OPS out at .750 the rest of the season, we are good. It's a massive improvement over the first 1/2 of the year.

 

Personally, I think the team should have sent him to the minors a long time ago to find his swing, but whatever. If he's back, awesome. A revived Casey would be really welcome, especially with Rickie out of action.

[The Truth]

If he's back, awesome. A revived Casey would be really welcome, especially with Rickie out of action.

It would be like trading for a real MLB 3B at the deadline without having to give anything up

[Raw Biz]

If Casey can OPS out at .750 the rest of the season, we are good. It's a massive improvement over the first 1/2 of the year.

 

Personally, I think the team should have sent him to the minors a long time ago to find his swing, but whatever. If he's back, awesome. A revived Casey would be really welcome, especially with Rickie out of action.

Exactly. I hope he's found his swing too but I'm just worried that if he OPS something like .750-.800 the rest of the year, everyone will justify his poor play for the first 4 months (though April was pretty decent). Then they will want to stick with him as the starter next year, leaving Green expendable. Regardless of what he does from here on out, Green should have been on the team for at least a month, getting a few starts a week at 3rd. Then we could have at least seen what he brought to the table. He may have proved to be an asset and someone we could use on the playoff roster. If not, he could be sent back down. Now he won't even be considered and we could be stuck with Kotsay/Counsell/Wilson.

[rluzinski]

Couple that with below average defense and he still projects to be well below average but he's also getting paid league minimum.

 

What is average this season for third base?

When I say average, it's relative to the total value of all players in the league (offense, base running and fielding). To do that, you obviously have to have some kind of positional adjustment, so you can compare third basemen to say, first basemen. Here's how WAR does that:

"Traditionally, offensive position adjustments have been popular, which aligns the positions by adjusting on the basis of the difference in offensive runs. However, due to the variability in offensive performance from year to year, that can lead to miscalculations, such as believing that an NL 2B and an NL SS were equal in 2008 because they had the same batting line. Clearly, shortstops are better defenders than second baseman, and we have to reflect this in their value."

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/explaining-win-values-part-three

That's how I see it as well. The positional adjustments are not based on 2/3rds of a season; they are based on years of data. And I don't compare McGehee's hitting to just other third basemen; I compare him to all batters (after utilizing the positional adjustment).

[brewmann04]

If Casey stays hot and carries us to the playoffs then all is forgiven.

[JohnBriggs12]

If he's back, awesome. A revived Casey would be really welcome, especially with Rickie out of action.

It would be like trading for a real MLB 3B at the deadline without having to give anything up

Exactly. It's the old bromide that the best trades are often the ones not made. The Brewers didn't need All Star production at 3B (or SS for that matter) in the 2nd half, they just needed something near average. So far, they are getting that and more without giving up anything.

[RockCoCougars]

McGehee has been smoking the ball for the past week plus. Lots of line drive outs to the outfielders mixed in with the hits. There have been some bad at bats, but not many.... certainly better than Wilson Betemit or someone of that ilk would have been. The bottom of the lineup has definitely been pulling it's share during the hot streak.

[Ayt]

What does it look like if you remove the monster 3 HR day?

 

Like any other guy's stats when you take away their best days. Why take away that day? Didn't it happen? Take away Prince's two shots since the break and his OPS looks even worse. It happened so it counts.

Of course it counts, but I thought it was a really funny juxtaposition to give a small sample alert of 28 days when the sample alert should have been for 8 days with the one huge day having a massive impact. I'm not sure why he picked 28 days (I'm assuming he means games).

In the last 8 games he has an OPS of 1.286. In the 7 games prior to the 3 HR game, he had an OPS of .899 (very encouraging). In the 20 games prior to the 8 game hot streak, he had an OPS of .588. Why 28 days? I have no clue.

[endaround]

Baseball reference gives a quick break down in it splits of 7, 14, 28, and 365 days.

[Ennder]

Also everyone likes to quote monthly stats for some reason and 28 fits into that category pretty well. If you want to know how good McGehee is at this point his career stats are probably the most accurate.