WAR so far this year for the 2011 Brewers

[adambr2]

The studs:

Prince 3.9, Braun 3.5, Weeks 3.4

 

Pitching staff:

Marcum 1.9, Greinke 1.9, Narveson 1.7, Gallardo 1.4, Wolf 0.8 --- Axford 1.1, Loe 0.1

 

Nyjer Morgan and Carlos Gomez have a combined 2.7 WAR so far. So what was originally thought to be a major deficiency in CF this year, has actually been more than servicable, if not a position of strength. Unfortunately, where one deficiency disappeared, another popped up at 3B.

 

Negative contributions award:

Betancourt -0.1, Nieves -0.4, McGehee -0.5, Kotsay -0.5

[HiAndTight]

The studs:

Prince 3.9, Braun 3.5, Weeks 3.4

 

Pitching staff:

Marcum 1.9, Greinke 1.9, Narveson 1.7, Gallardo 1.4, Wolf 0.8 --- Axford 1.1, Loe 0.1

 

Nyjer Morgan and Carlos Gomez have a combined 2.7 WAR so far. So what was originally thought to be a major deficiency in CF this year, has actually been more than servicable, if not a position of strength. Unfortunately, where one deficiency disappeared, another popped up at 3B.

 

Negative contributions award:

Betancourt -0.1, Nieves -0.4, McGehee -0.5, Kotsay -0.5

I think seeing that out of Weeks is the most rewarding. All of our faith has been rewarded. I'm loving that extension even more right now. I could nitpick a bit and request he get that BB rate back up to 11-12 pct, and his OBP up to about .385, but I'll "settle" for his .860 OPS and solid D.

[thebruce44]

As if we needed further proof that Green should get a shot at 3B.

[logan82]

adambr2 wrote:

Nyjer Morgan and Carlos Gomez have a combined 2.7 WAR so far. So what was originally thought to be a major deficiency in CF this year, has actually been more than servicable, if not a position of strength.

There were more than a few posters who thought CF would actually be pretty good. The only really deficient position I thought we would have would be SS. Well, and Kotsay/bench. I am not a fan of McGehee but even I didn't think he would be this bad.

[wisconsinfan47]

This seems as good a place as any to point out that Rickie Weeks has baseball's third highest WAR since the start of 2010, trailing only Bautista and Votto, and beating out guys like Pujols, Hamilton, and Cabrera

[fondybrewfan]

That McGehee WAR is incredible.

 

It always seemed that he would be a flash in the pan player considering his MILB numbers; but he put up two very solid years. He has been bad in epic proportions this year

[Invader3K]

That McGehee WAR is incredible.

 

It always seemed that he would be a flash in the pan player considering his MILB numbers; but he put up two very solid years. He has been bad in epic proportions this year

I have cheered as hard for Casey as anyone, but Melvin is going to have to do something about the 3B situation sooner than later.

Are pitching WARs always so relatively low? It seems like starting pitching is undervalued based on the numbers in the OP.

 

[Glennron]

Pitching staff:

Marcum 1.9, Greinke 1.9, Narveson 1.7, Gallardo 1.4, Wolf 0.8 --- Axford 1.1, Loe 0.1

This is funny to me because during Wolf's last start, Kranitz said something along the lines of "If anyone in our rotation deserves to make the All-Star Game, it's him>

[owbc]

Interesting footnote from fangraphs today:

 

It was expected that Milwaukee’s pitching troika would dominate the competition this season. Not included in that group was Chris Narveson, but he has been just as good, as his 3.38 xFIP is near-identical to the 3.34 mark for Shaun Marcum and 3.37 for Yovani Gallardo.

Wolf is at 3.99.

 

FYI, Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s

ERA should have looked like over a give time period, assuming that

performance on balls in play and timing were league average.

[rluzinski]

Keep in mind, these are context neutral stats, so they don't tell you how each player's performance actually contributed to wins and losses. They tell you how valuable their contribution would be in an average situation. Over a long enough period of time, they become very close to the same thing, though.

 

Also, Fangraph's WAR gives pitchers no responsibility for balls in play. Baseball Reference's WAR gives 100% responsibility. The truth is obviously in between (much closer to Fangraph's assumption over half a season).

 

If you want to know how performance effected the odds of winning in the actual games, use WPA:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/...011&month=0&season1=2011

 

Fielder , Braun and Weeks are still the leaders. McGehee and batancourt have been terrible.

 

If you want to know how many wins a player has contributed compared to how an average player would be expected to performance in the same situations, use WPA/LI. Same 5.

[endaround]

WPA doesn't take into account defense and is way too context sensitive. For example if Fielder hits a homer up to go up 5 runs in the top of inning he'll get almost no WPA even if teh other team scores 4 in the bottom of the inning. You flip flop half innings and Fielder gets like .25 or so. That not to say it tells us nothign, it does tell us that many of Fielder's hits have been in really high leverage situations.

[rluzinski]

WPA isn't TOO context sensitive. It just is what it is. It just tells you how much value the result of a specific PA had that that very instant.

 

I'm not promoting WPA or WPA/LI over any other metric; just pointing out the differences. It's easy to say that a particular performance was worth some amount of wins but it's important to make the definition of "worth" as explicit as possible. People can then choose what they want. I have little use for a half a season's worth of WAR for instance. I'd rather see how that performance has changed a player's projected performance going forward.

[Oldcity]

I thought it was amazing that even though Greinke has so few innings, he's been as valuable as Marcum according to WAR.

[adambr2]

The studs:

Prince 3.9, Braun 3.5, Weeks 3.4

 

Pitching staff:

Marcum 1.9, Greinke 1.9, Narveson 1.7, Gallardo 1.4, Wolf 0.8 --- Axford 1.1, Loe 0.1

 

Nyjer Morgan and Carlos Gomez have a combined 2.7 WAR so far. So what was originally thought to be a major deficiency in CF this year, has actually been more than servicable, if not a position of strength. Unfortunately, where one deficiency disappeared, another popped up at 3B.

 

Negative contributions award:

Betancourt -0.1, Nieves -0.4, McGehee -0.5, Kotsay -0.5

I think seeing that out of Weeks is the most rewarding. All of our faith has been rewarded. I'm loving that extension even more right now. I could nitpick a bit and request he get that BB rate back up to 11-12 pct, and his OBP up to about .385, but I'll "settle" for his .860 OPS and solid D.

Yep, so we got 2 of the big 3 signed long term. (Weeks isn't often mentioned in the same breath as Braun and Fielder as far as elite players, but he should be, IMO, he is just as valuable). Plus Hart who is a next-tier guy.

 

Now use Prince's money to sign Greinke and Marcum if you can. Pull that off and you've kept your trio of aces in the rotation long-term as well as kept the lineup looking very solid.

 

[strawbossisevil]

To give another perspective of it:

 

Amongst OF (with enough ABs to qualify), Braun is #2 in OPS behind only Kemp.

Amongst 1B, Fielder is #1 in OPS.

Amongst 2B, Weeks is #1 in OPS.

 

So we have the top offensive player in the whole MLB at two positions, and the second best at another.

 

I can't even imagine the awesomeness of our offense if we could some how scrape together enough prospects to trade for the #1 OPS SS - Jose Reyes (as unlikely as that would be).

[HiAndTight]

To give another perspective of it:

 

Amongst OF (with enough ABs to qualify), Braun is #2 in OPS behind only Kemp.

Amongst 1B, Fielder is #1 in OPS.

Amongst 2B, Weeks is #1 in OPS.

 

So we have the top offensive player in the whole MLB at two positions, and the second best at another.

 

I can't even imagine the awesomeness of our offense if we could some how scrape together enough prospects to trade for the #1 OPS SS - Jose Reyes (as unlikely as that would be).

Well, if you want to really dream and acquire Reyes, why not take the next step then and replace McGehee with Green as well. God that'd be a ridiculous lineup.

Reyes/Morgan/Braun/Prince/Weeks/Green/Hart/Lucroy.

 

Now grabbing Furcal would also make for an incredibly impressive lineup as well if we could manage to just use what we have within our own system to improve that putrid 3rd base position.

[Ennder]

FYI, Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a give time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average

 

And not correcting for HR/FB% which makes absolutely no sense at all, sorry I just don't like FIP at all so always gotta bring that up~. Either you try to get the luck/park/defense out or you don't, FIP is just an odd stat all around.

 

No single stat works for pitching but I consider FIP to be one of the weakest of the bunch, its almost as bad as straight up ERA.

[topper09er]

For example if Fielder hits a homer up to go up 5 runs in the top of inning he'll get almost no WPA even if teh other team scores 4 in the bottom of the inning. You flip flop half innings and Fielder gets like .25 or so.

You could also say it may be easier to hit a HR when up by a lot because the pitcher is trying not to walk people and you often are facing a bad pitcher/ a good pitcher having a bad day. If you tied teams will be more careful about allowing HRs and you will be facing a better pitcher.

[battlekow]

FYI, Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a give time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average

 

And not correcting for HR/FB% which makes absolutely no sense at all, sorry I just don't like FIP at all so always gotta bring that up~. Either you try to get the luck/park/defense out or you don't, FIP is just an odd stat all around.

 

No single stat works for pitching but I consider FIP to be one of the weakest of the bunch, its almost as bad as straight up ERA.

Then just use xFIP, which does correct for HR/FB rate.

[Ennder]

Yep that is the quick and simple one I use. You need to contrast xFIP to ERA to see what the pitchers career trends are since they do control some of the "luck". Most pitchers end up pretty close in xFIP and ERA but some have significant splits on a regular basis. Even then it is hard to tell how much of that is team defense, park factors, weak hitting divisions etc. No single stat is going to work with pitching.

[joepepsi]

I can't even imagine the awesomeness of our offense if we could some how scrape together enough prospects to trade for the #1 OPS SS - Jose Reyes (as unlikely as that would be).

Hardy's OPS is .907.

[COBrewerfan]

This is exactly why WAR and other made up stats only count in for much in stat guys head. Wolf being at .8 is laughable. Especially considering Greinke and Narveson are double that. Which is why they basically tell you very little about what actually is happens in the games.

[strawbossisevil]

I can't even imagine the awesomeness of our offense if we could some how scrape together enough prospects to trade for the #1 OPS SS - Jose Reyes (as unlikely as that would be).

Hardy's OPS is .907.

Hardy doesn´t have enough ABs to qualify for the batting title, etc. Which is why I didn´t include him.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I can't even imagine the awesomeness of our offense if we could some how scrape together enough prospects to trade for the #1 OPS SS - Jose Reyes (as unlikely as that would be).

Hardy's OPS is .907.

Hardy doesn´t have enough ABs to qualify for the batting title, etc. Which is why I didn´t include him.

Not to mention the fact that Reyes is far more likely to continue to put up an .875-ish OPS than Hardy is a 900 ops.

[owbc]

This is exactly why WAR and other made up stats only count in for much in stat guys head. Wolf being at .8 is laughable. Especially considering Greinke and Narveson are double that. Which is why they basically tell you very little about what actually is happens in the games.

I think you need to start here.