Anyone worried about the upcoming 6 games with the Twins?

[HiAndTight]

Now the Twins are a second half team and they could make a run in a weak, weak division but outside of past performance of the team do you see any reason to think this team is really going to turn it around that much?

Morneau missed the last 30 games of 2009, most of 2010 and there were

questions to him being ready for this year. It is not a surprise at all

that he is hurt. Mauer has had a lot of trouble with his knees and

catching puts a lot of strain there and he had surgery in the

off-season. I live in Minnesota and when Mauer went on the DL it was a

"here we go again" attitude.

 

Morneau played 135 games in 2009, and as I said, had PCS last year. He'd otherwise been healthy. He averaged 151 games per season from 2004-2009.

And obviously catching takes a toll on a player. Nobody's denying that. But Mauer has averaged 134 games in his career, sans his rookie season, a total 100 pct in line with what top catchers play. So whatever the general "feeling" may have been in Minnesota, the fact of the matter is they had little reason to EXPECT those two to continue to deal with injuries.

 

But lets agree they should have known both would be injured. What would you have them do? You're criticizing them for how they're built. What would you have them do with two superstars in their prime years who've averaged 134 games, and the other 151 excluding a freak bout with post concussion syndrome?

 

 

As to Nishioka I have read nothing calling him a fantastic fielder.

Most said he would be lucky to stick at SS but was probably a 2B. Lots

of players from Japan come over and dont succeed and watching Nichioka

at the plate he looks pretty bad. Twins fans are railing his approach.

 

The Twins manager was certainly impressed with his defense;

http://www.topix.com/forum/sports/TQVCLB1TG4O4AQ9SH

 

And he was a Gold Glove winner in Japan. AND plenty of players have come over and had a great deal of success.

 

 

In any event, I find it utterly ridiculous to comment on a player and how he looks after 16 games that have been broken up by a broken leg on a freak take out slide at 2nd base. I don't think anyone would argue that point.

 

I agree they have had some bad luck but Thome being hurt some is not a

surprise as he is old. I will stick with Morneau being hurt not being a

huge surprise. And when some of these guys were healthy they were not

producing anyway. Span is unlucky and Cuddyer was a short stint on the

DL. Young getting hurt the first time was a product of an out of shape

player.

 

Fine. Him getting hurt isn't a surprise because he's old. Then all the young players getting hurt SHOULD be a surprise.

 

You like Nishoka a lot more than I do.

 

I don't like or dislike him either way. I'm simply reading glowing reports from scouts talking about him in Japan and from the Twins in ST'ing, as well as him thriving and winning batting titles in Japan and can see he's clearly a talented player, regardless of 16 games and the results therein.

 

I think they have been unlucky but I think some of it had to do with

banking on guys who have a history of missing time the past few years

and on guys who have not proven to be consistent major league players

like Casilla, Valencia

 

The only reason Valencia hasn't PROVEN to be consistent is because he hasn't played more than ONE year in the big leagues.

 

Again, ONE season and he was very productive.

 

The Twins have actually been remarkably healthy in their starting

pitching staff and it has been pretty average at best. I dont see that

rotation setting them up to make much of a run. There bullpen has had a

couple injuries but one of those, Nathan, you could see coming a mile

away with his coming off major surgery and a dip in velocity starting in

spring training

Again, their starting pitching is the same as last year, and they had Gibson ready to come up from AAA. A staff that was good enough to win 94 games.

 

Now the Twins are a second half team and they could make a run in a

weak, weak division but outside of past performance of the team do you

see any reason to think this team is really going to turn it around that

much?

 

Well....a 15-2 run in June already had them starting to turn it around, and past performance is a pretty good indicator of future performance.

 

 

And I do believe they've had some awful luck. So yes, I do believe they'll turn it around.

 

 

It depends on how healthy they are the rest of the way. If Liriano can be the dominant pitcher he often looks like, Gibson can come up and have an impact, Baker can keep up his success, etc..etc...

[Funketown]

To me, "flop" means he was significantly worse than expected -- and I'm aware you threw the caveat of "to an extent" in there. I just don't think anyone could've reasonably projected him to come to MLB & put up 1.000+ OPS numbers. 7 seasons with the Yanks, two were partial due to injuries, and he posted an OPS+ of 123 or better in every other full season aside from his first in MLB. He was a great signing for them, & I just don't agree at all that he was a flop of any kind. By the quick-&-dirty OPS+, he was in the top 25 in the AL in hitting in each of his four full seasons after his debut of '03. That's definitely better than an average OF.

 

He was on the wrong side of his prime by the time he came over, but he wasn't ancient either (28 years old when he first came over).

 

I agree with this completely, but again, this is what the Yankees knew they were purchasing. I think if people had the idea that Matsui would hit at a Pujols-caliber level, they were kidding themselves.

 

Btw, interesting discussion on Japanese players to spawn out of this thread.

As a hitter, I think you're right on Matsui. He was a significantly above average hitter during his time in New York. It's the fact that he was such a horrendous defender that makes me consider him somewhat of a flop. It's probably more accurate to say Matsui was a disappointment, not somewhat of a flop. He had been one of the best players of the decade in Japan, and in MLB he was pretty average, taking into account his defense and position.

 

From what I see on Cots, his first contract with the Yankees was way cheaper than I had thought, at $21M for 3 years, without a posting fee. I was mistaken in thinking the Yankees had paid a huge posting fee for Hideki.

[RockCoCougars]

Most of these Japanese guys have come with a relatively large amount of hype. In my view, the only two that lived up to it have been Ichiro (who has far surpassed it) and Matsui. Nomo had some good seasons, but he never really lived up to his billing after the rookie year. Many of the other pitchers have been colossal busts (Irabu, Dice, etc.). I hate to pick on just the Japanese, so I'll add that the same thing could basically be said for the Cubans who have defected in the past 15 years (outside of the Hernandez brothers). Big money international bonus babies are a tremendously risky proposition.

[Funketown]

I feel like Japanese players tend to get way more hype than Cuban players and also tend to sign much more lucrative contracts. I'm pretty sure Chapman has the record for a Cuban player signing a major league deal straight out of Cuba, and he signed for $31 million, just more than half of Dice-K's posting fee.

 

According to Wiki, there have been only 11 Japanese-born MLB position players. One has been an elite player (Ichiro). Quite a few were right around average for the most part (H. Matsui, Tad Iguchi, Fukudome). The rest were below average major leaguers (Shinjo, So Taguchi, Kaz Matsui, Nakamura, Johjima).

[jjfanec]

Now the Twins are a second half team and they could make a run in a

weak, weak division but outside of past performance of the team do you

see any reason to think this team is really going to turn it around that

much?

 

Well....a 15-2 run in June already had them starting to turn it around, and past performance is a pretty good indicator of future performance.

 

 

And I do believe they've had some awful luck. So yes, I do believe they'll turn it around.

 

 

It depends on how healthy they are the rest of the way. If Liriano can be the dominant pitcher he often looks like, Gibson can come up and have an impact, Baker can keep up his success, etc..etc...

Past performance is a good indicator when people seem like the same players but it is obvious this year Young, Morneau, and Mauer are just not the same guys. Really Morneau and Mauer have not been the same for a couple years. I think they could turn it around and have solid years - well not Young even if he gets healthy because he just doesnt seem to care this year.

 

On the staff Liriano does not look dominant very often anymore. I know Twins fans who want to trade him for anything they can get. Gibson could help but you are making him sound like Strasburg when he has been has a 1.3 WHIP and a 3.87 ERA in AAA right now. Good not great. Pavano is another guy who a regress was obviously coming. He is a 4 ERA kind of guy who will do well against bad hitting teams but when he faces good teams he gets rocked. Baker has been very good. Blackburn was rolling pretty good till he got rocked last night and Duensing is pretty good. However their bullpen is nowhere near the same as last year. The lost big pieces in Crane and Guerrier, Nathan is not healthy and Capps is back to pitching like an ok closer not a lights out one.

 

The Twins at worst would have to get to about 86-76 to win the division one would think. At 32-45 they would have to go 54-31 to get there. I dont see that team going 54-31. They get some guys back in Kubel and Span, but Morneau wont be back for a while. They will have more home games the second half of the year so that will help. They end the first half with 2 more against the dodgers at home, then Milwaukee and TB. Then they travel to the White Sox for 4. That is a tough 12 games and we will see how they fare there.

 

Edit - You also brought up Nishioka's great defense before. He now has 6 errors in 16 games.

[Funketown]

Count me in saying the Twins are toast. Even if the division can be won with 81 games, they'll have to go 49-36. They've made some runs in the past but this team is just too crippled by injuries to make that kind of run, and I just don't see Mauer and Morneau returning to their dominant ways this season.

[RightFieldCoder]

Funketown wrote:

---

I know a lot of people reference Japan's two victories at the WBC as evidence of the skill level in the NPB, but given the lack of success of Japanese players in MLB, you have to wonder where the talent level truly is.

I think their success at the WBC is due to the time of year the WBC is played. If we played the WBC during their pre-season workouts and during our season, I'm confident that they wouldn't dominate as well as they do.

[Funketown]

Funketown wrote:

---

I know a lot of people reference Japan's two victories at the WBC as evidence of the skill level in the NPB, but given the lack of success of Japanese players in MLB, you have to wonder where the talent level truly is.

I think their success at the WBC is due to the time of year the WBC is played. If we played the WBC during their pre-season workouts and during our season, I'm confident that they wouldn't dominate as well as they do.I think that may play some part but I think for the most part it's simply because so few games are played and it's hard to really judge a baseball team based on ~10 games. If you ever tried to judge MLB teams only based on their last 10 games, you'd quickly see the absurdity of doing so; the Nationals are 7-3 while the Red Sox are 5-5, clearly they are the better team!

 

 

[sbrylski]

Funketown wrote:

---

I know a lot of people reference Japan's two victories at the WBC as evidence of the skill level in the NPB, but given the lack of success of Japanese players in MLB, you have to wonder where the talent level truly is.

I think their success at the WBC is due to the time of year the WBC is played. If we played the WBC during their pre-season workouts and during our season, I'm confident that they wouldn't dominate as well as they do.I think the WBC is no more than a showcase and whoever wins is essentially meaningless in trying to evaluate talent level.

 

I like the WBC, its fun to watch. But it's just too short of a format to really be meaningful in projecting the future.