Anyone worried about the upcoming 6 games with the Twins?

[jjfanec]

I think people overrate the Twins right now. I know they are hot but look at that lineup. It is really bad. They still have the second worst record in the AL even after their run. They are getting by on pitching and maybe that staff really is good but I dont fear a rotation of Pavano, Baker, Liriano, Blackburn and Duensing.

[thebruce44]

Are there a lot of trailer parks outside of the Twin Cities, because I have heard the state referred to as "The Land of 10,000 Trailer Parks" multiple times.

[RockCoCougars]

Are there a lot of trailer parks outside of the Twin Cities, because I have heard the state referred to as "The Land of 10,000 Trailer Parks" multiple times.

That's basically the entire state outside the cities. 'Outstate' is basically one large Adams County. At least in Wisconsin, there are a handful of 'cities' of 40,000 or more fairly evenly spaced out- modern civilization reaches these places to some extent. Minnesota doesn't have that. Outside of Rochester and Duluth, I believe that all their Top 10 population cities are Minneapolis, St. Paul and suburbs.

 

The Twins are a brutal squad this season, but they have been pretty lucky against the crew since the turn of the century. I'm going to predict that the Brewers take 2 of 3 in Milwaukee and then get swept away in Minneapolis.

[joepepsi]

Are there a lot of trailer parks outside of the Twin Cities, because I have heard the state referred to as "The Land of 10,000 Trailer Parks" multiple times.

That's basically the entire state outside the cities. 'Outstate' is basically one large Adams County. At least in Wisconsin, there are a handful of 'cities' of 40,000 or more fairly evenly spaced out- modern civilization reaches these places to some extent. Minnesota doesn't have that. Outside of Rochester and Duluth, I believe that all their Top 10 population cities are Minneapolis, St. Paul and suburbs.

This is the biggest difference between Minnesota and Wisconsin. Wisconsin is a real state, with various regions and urban/economic hubs. Minnesota is the Twin Cities and everything else seems like a suburb feeding off that central hub. Rochester consistently rates among the best places to live in the country, but it's entirely based on the presence of the Mayo health system and its enormous salaries that skew the average standard of living, which is not evenly spread across all its citizens.

 

I know people who live/have lived in Rochester. Most say its pleasant in an innocuous, generic way. It has a real cliched, suburban boring feel, like a giant bedroom community. If people want to do something, they go to the Cities.

 

La Crosse doesn't usually rank as high on these lists, but it's hands down one of the most fun, vibrant, full of character small cities in the country. I can't imagine anyone would prefer to live in Rochester over places like La Crosse or even Winona.

[rluzinski]

The Twins are a brutal squad this season, but they have been pretty lucky against the crew since the turn of the century. I'm going to predict that the Brewers take 2 of 3 in Milwaukee and then get swept away in Minneapolis.

Where do I go to put money on that not happening?

[RockCoCougars]

The Twins are a brutal squad this season, but they have been pretty lucky against the crew since the turn of the century. I'm going to predict that the Brewers take 2 of 3 in Milwaukee and then get swept away in Minneapolis.

Where do I go to put money on that not happening?

Probably Vegas, but if you're gutsy, an online sportsbook.

 

What part don't you like, the home or away? If you don't like the away, keep betting on the Brewers and adjust your bet until they win, if you don't like the home it depends on whether you think the Twins will win the series or the Brewers will sweep. If you want me to set odds on my scenario, you'd probably have to give me around 15 to 1. I'd say the Twins sweeping the Brewers in Minnesota alone would be close to 10 to 1. Like I said, the Twins are generally very lucky against the Brewers, so I'd say the odds of it actually happening are better than they appear on paper.

[rluzinski]

The Twins are a brutal squad this season, but they have been pretty lucky against the crew since the turn of the century. I'm going to predict that the Brewers take 2 of 3 in Milwaukee and then get swept away in Minneapolis.

Where do I go to put money on that not happening?

Probably Vegas, but if you're gutsy, an online sportsbook.

 

What part don't you like, the home or away? If you don't like the away, keep betting on the Brewers and adjust your bet until they win, if you don't like the home it depends on whether you think the Twins will win the series or the Brewers will sweep. If you want me to set odds on my scenario, you'd probably have to give me around 15 to 1. I'd say the Twins sweeping the Brewers in Minnesota alone would be close to 10 to 1. Like I said, the Twins are generally very lucky against the Brewers, so I'd say the odds of it actually happening are better than they appear on paper.

I was just suggesting that your "prediction" is highly unlikely, which you seem to already mostly realize (the Twins being "lucky" doesn't really make much sense to me). I've just never understand why sports fans and commentators like to predict things they know aren't likely. Sure, you'll be right 10% of the time but.. wrong the other 90%. Just a pet peeve of mine.

If I were going to throw together a WAG of the Brewers sweeping the Twins, I'd probably start with putting the Brewer odds of winning each game at perhaps 55%. I know that doesn't sound like much but the AL has been traditionally better and the Brewers are on the road (4% right there). Anyway, the odds of the Twins sweeping is then (1-.55)^3 = .091..... 11:1 odds. Looks like your gut 10:1 guess is reasonable.

 

[RockCoCougars]

I was just suggesting that your "prediction" is highly unlikely, which you seem to already mostly realize (the Twins being "lucky" doesn't really make much sense to me). I've just never understand why sports fans and commentators like to predict things they know aren't likely. Sure, you'll be right 10% of the time but.. wrong the other 90%. Just a pet peeve of mine.

If I were going to throw together a WAG of the Brewers sweeping the Twins, I'd probably start with putting the Brewer odds of winning each game at perhaps 55%. I know that doesn't sound like much but the AL has been traditionally better and the Brewers are on the road (4% right there). Anyway, the odds of the Twins sweeping is then (1-.55)^3 = .091..... 11:1 odds. Looks like your gut 10:1 guess is reasonable.

Point taken. I was just pulling a prognostication out of my rear based on the Twins luck in recent years against the Crew. They almost pulled out a lucky win last night, taking the lead on a three run homer after the Brewers were stymied by a ground rule double that cost them a run.

[jjfanec]

Minnesota is starting one guy with an OPS over .685! If we lose more than 2 games to them that is disappointing. To put that in perspective Lucroy would be their second best hitter stats wise each night. On the Brewers Lucroy is behind - Weeks, Morgan, Braun, Fielder and Hart. Injuries have crippled that offense with Kubel and Span being out and then injuries to guys who were already underperforming badly in Mauer, Morneau, and Young.

 

I am confused with how that lineup as it is right now was the one that won like 9 of 10 or whatever it was.

[And That]

The Twins' team OPS coming into today's game was 651. The last time the Brewers finished the season with an OPS that low was 1976.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

2 Thoughts

 

1) Love the sweep and three game lead!

2) The Twins offense is bad! Very bad! Mauer is not in sync at all, and Morneau didn't look that way either in the year. Doubtful the Twins finish with a winning record despite their hot streak. Their offense is simply the worst i've ever seen. Imagine ours without Braun and Fielder this year.

[TooLiveBrew]

The Twins offense is bad! Very bad!

 

You could even sub out "offense" for "team" right now

[jjfanec]

Minnesota banked a ton on two great hitters who also have been injured quite a bit recently and that really hurt them this year. Injuries hurt them but I dont think it is as good of an excuse when the guy has been hurt consistently. Kind of like the Dodgers saying they are unlucky Furcal is hurt when the guy is consistently hurt. On top of that their infield is terrible. They trusted Valencia would repeat. They brought over the SS who looks really bad at the plate. Casilla was handed the starting job with no recent history of success. In the OF Span's injury does hurt because Revere and his 600 OPS has to play. Kubel should never have been in the OF but Young's injury, laziness and poor play forced him out their. They have had some bad luck but they are also a poorly constructed team that was banking on one year wonders producing again.

 

Then you get to their pitching staff. They let half their bullpen go and had no one in house to replace them. Capps is decent but they got fleeced in that trade - Ramos would look good on that team right now. Nathan has lost a ton of velocity and relying on him to be your closer or even 8th inning guy was a mistake until he proved he was back. After that they dont have much other than Perkins. Their rotation is fine at best. No number 1 and no number 2 really. Maybe Baker but that would be the only guy. Most guys sit as number 3 or 4 type guys.

 

For a team that was constructed so well the last decade this team is not. Injuries hurt them but even before that they had big questions in the infield, in their bullpen, who would be their top end starters, and if their big money guys were guys who could consistently stay on the field at their positions.

[kilgore37]

The Twins were never a great offensive team. The beat you because they were fundamentally sound and had above average pitching. Last night during the game the announcers said the Twins had the 3rd most errors in the AL. That is a recipe for disaster. It seems like half the team is playing out of position.

[jjfanec]

The Twins were never a great offensive team. The beat you because they were fundamentally sound and had above average pitching. Last night during the game the announcers said the Twins had the 3rd most errors in the AL. That is a recipe for disaster. It seems like half the team is playing out of position.

AL ranks in OPS

 

2011 - 12 and 12th in runs scored

2010 - 4

2009 - 5

2008 - 9th but 3rd in runs scored

2007 - 13th and 12th runs scored. Finished the season 4 games under 500

2006 - 8th and 8th

2005 - 12th and 13th and missed the playoffs

 

The Twins offense has been better than people give it credit for but when it is off they dont win. This year they are lucky to not the be the worst offense in the AL but Seattle and Oakland are terrible as well.

[HiAndTight]

Minnesota banked a ton on two great hitters who also have been injured quite a bit recently and that really hurt them this year. Injuries hurt them but I dont think it is as good of an excuse when the guy has been hurt consistently. Kind of like the Dodgers saying they are unlucky Furcal is hurt when the guy is consistently hurt. On top of that their infield is terrible. They trusted Valencia would repeat. They brought over the SS who looks really bad at the plate. Casilla was handed the starting job with no recent history of success. In the OF Span's injury does hurt because Revere and his 600 OPS has to play. Kubel should never have been in the OF but Young's injury, laziness and poor play forced him out their. They have had some bad luck but they are also a poorly constructed team that was banking on one year wonders producing again.

 

Then you get to their pitching staff. They let half their bullpen go and had no one in house to replace them. Capps is decent but they got fleeced in that trade - Ramos would look good on that team right now. Nathan has lost a ton of velocity and relying on him to be your closer or even 8th inning guy was a mistake until he proved he was back. After that they dont have much other than Perkins. Their rotation is fine at best. No number 1 and no number 2 really. Maybe Baker but that would be the only guy. Most guys sit as number 3 or 4 type guys.

 

For a team that was constructed so well the last decade this team is not. Injuries hurt them but even before that they had big questions in the infield, in their bullpen, who would be their top end starters, and if their big money guys were guys who could consistently stay on the field at their positions.

Morneau had post-concussion syndrome last year and had very little injury history prior to that.

Mauer missed a small chunk to start the year last year and he also had a very limited injury history prior to that.

 

I don't know that any team would have acted any differently under the same circumstances.

 

"The guy," they brought over was a guy who as a 25 year old hit .350 in Japan and was/is a fantastic defender. He also got hurt and hasn't gotten going.

 

Outside of Mauer and Morneau, they have Cuddeyer, Kubel, Young and Span. I think that compares pretty well to most teams.

 

They DID count on Valencia. Not sure why they wouldn't have. He was a young guy who had a very good rookie year. I doubt they expected the production as last year, but here again, I'm not sure what you would do when you have a 25 year old kid who hits .311, has been one of your better prospects for the last several years.

 

 

 

So I think you can safely say it was more than just injuries to two players.

Mauer, Morneau, Cuddeyer, Kubel, Span, Nishioka, and Thome all dealing with injuries is one helluva bad run of luck.

 

As for their pitching, their starting pitching is the same as last year and they had Kyle Gibson, one of the games top pitching prospects waiting in AAA, and he's pitching well there this year.

 

 

I think you're looking at a plethora of just terrible luck and everything going wrong when very little of it was predictable and saying, "they should have seen this coming."

 

I don't think any team short of the Red Sox and Phillies could deal with the type of injuries and bad luck they've had this year, and they've still managed to be one of the hottest teams in June, the Brewers sweep notwithstanding.

 

In a rather weak division, I still think if they get healthy, they're a good bet to go on a run and make the playoffs. I also think Nishioka is going to prove to be a fantastic signing down the road.

[jjfanec]

Morneau missed the last 30 games of 2009, most of 2010 and there were questions to him being ready for this year. It is not a surprise at all that he is hurt. Mauer has had a lot of trouble with his knees and catching puts a lot of strain there and he had surgery in the off-season. I live in Minnesota and when Mauer went on the DL it was a "here we go again" attitude.

 

As to Nishioka I have read nothing calling him a fantastic fielder. Most said he would be lucky to stick at SS but was probably a 2B. Lots of players from Japan come over and dont succeed and watching Nichioka at the plate he looks pretty bad. Twins fans are railing his approach.

 

I agree they have had some bad luck but Thome being hurt some is not a surprise as he is old. I will stick with Morneau being hurt not being a huge surprise. And when some of these guys were healthy they were not producing anyway. Span is unlucky and Cuddyer was a short stint on the DL. Young getting hurt the first time was a product of an out of shape player.

 

I think they have been unlucky but I think some of it had to do with banking on guys who have a history of missing time the past few years and on guys who have not proven to be consistent major league players like Casilla, Valencia (hiandtight is probably right that he was rightfully banked on to do well), Young, and Nishoka. You like Nishoka a lot more than I do. For some reason both Young and Valencia both seemed like prime candidates for let down years. Valencia because the sophomore slump is fairly common and the league figures guys out. And Young because off-season reports were not glowing and came in out of shape.

 

The Twins have actually been remarkably healthy in their starting pitching staff and it has been pretty average at best. I dont see that rotation setting them up to make much of a run. There bullpen has had a couple injuries but one of those, Nathan, you could see coming a mile away with his coming off major surgery and a dip in velocity starting in spring training

 

Again I dont want it to come off like I think all of this was expected to happen and that the Twins are not unlucky but when I looked at their roster and question marks at the beginning of the year I told my Twins fan friends I did not see them making the playoffs. A rotation that is a bunch of 3/4 guys, a bullpen that got gutted in the off-season, and what I saw as question marks at 2B, SS, 3B, and LF and catcher since I didnt think Mauer would be able to catch a ton. Kubel is a DH playing OF, Thome is a DH only and Mauer needs to be able to DH some. I just did not like their roster.

 

Now the Twins are a second half team and they could make a run in a weak, weak division but outside of past performance of the team do you see any reason to think this team is really going to turn it around that much?

[Invader3K]

I don't think they can turn it around this year. Too many injuries and questionable players on the roster being asked to play key roles right now. That division is going to come down to Detroit and Cleveland, with Chicago possibly in the mix as well.

[Funketown]

I didn't realize Nishioka had been a ~.850 OPS guy the last few years in Japan. It's amazing how few of the Japanese signings see success in the majors leagues, and amazing how many of the superstars flop (Fukudome, Dice-K, Kaz Matsui, even Hideki Matsui to an extent). I know a lot of people reference Japan's two victories at the WBC as evidence of the skill level in the NPB, but given the lack of success of Japanese players in MLB, you have to wonder where the talent level truly is. My uneducated guess is that it's only slightly higher than AAA, and that even a top NPB team would win only 60 games in MLB.

 

If Mauer can't stay healthy that contract could become an albatross pretty quickly. It's amazing how many of those huge contracts become regrettable.

[brwrsfan]

It seems like with the Japan guys go, a lot of them come over when they have already played 6-8 years in Japan or longer. You wonder if they're wearing down by the time they get here or if they simply aren't as good as they seem to be.

 

As far as the Twins go, it irks me that we play them so close together. You never want to see the same team on back to back weekends, especially in inter-league. Two of the pitching matchups are identical, which I just don't like. Hitters tend to be better the second time around. I guess that favors the stronger pitching, which is probably us, but still. These two series should have been split up a tad I think. Hopefully we can duplicate the success we had.

[TooLiveBrew]

even Hideki Matsui to an extent

 

To what extent did he flop?

[endaround]

Fukuedome is really only a bust because the Cubs have him playing out of position because they haev Soriano in LF.

[HiAndTight]

I didn't realize Nishioka had been a ~.850 OPS guy the last few years in Japan. It's amazing how few of the Japanese signings see success in the majors leagues, and amazing how many of the superstars flop (Fukudome, Dice-K, Kaz Matsui, even Hideki Matsui to an extent). I know a lot of people reference Japan's two victories at the WBC as evidence of the skill level in the NPB, but given the lack of success of Japanese players in MLB, you have to wonder where the talent level truly is. My uneducated guess is that it's only slightly higher than AAA, and that even a top NPB team would win only 60 games in MLB.

 

If Mauer can't stay healthy that contract could become an albatross pretty quickly. It's amazing how many of those huge contracts become regrettable.

Fukudome is currently carrying a .282/.390 line at age 34, and has a career .262/.371 line with a .778 OPS. Calling him a "flop," is a bit harsh.

Dice-K put up a 18-3 and a 2.90 ERA in his second year here after a very solid first year, and a career 4.25 ERA playing in Fenway also clears him from the "flop" distinction IMO. A disappointment, but he put up 7.2 WAR in his first two years here.

 

And Hideki Matsui posted a .837 OPS coming over as a 30 year old. I fail to see how he's a "flop," using any definition of the word.

 

 

So I just don't see the same thing you see with the lack of success from Japanese players. I agree their top teams are almost certainly not going to compete with the top teams here, but they've shown their top players are more than capable of playing over here.

[Funketown]

even Hideki Matsui to an extent

 

To what extent did he flop?

He was an average overall player in MLB, but not a star by any means. In his final two years with Yomiuri he OPS'd 1.080 and 1.155; in his first two years with the Yankees he only OPS'd .788 and .912. He put up 6.9 WAR in his first four seasons with the Yankees, which is pretty much the production of an average outfielder. He was on the wrong side of his prime by the time he came over, but he wasn't ancient either (28 years old when he first came over).

 

Fukudome also has not been not a bad player by any means, but he is nowhere near the hitter people expected him to be. He was a .950 OPS type guy in Japan who hit with good power, but the power didn't cross the pacific with him.

 

Edit: Dice-K's 4.25 career FIP and ERA are better than average, but they paid ace money for the guy. Another case of a superstar being nothing more than an average to slightly above average player.

[TooLiveBrew]

To me, "flop" means he was significantly worse than expected -- and I'm aware you threw the caveat of "to an extent" in there. I just don't think anyone could've reasonably projected him to come to MLB & put up 1.000+ OPS numbers. 7 seasons with the Yanks, two were partial due to injuries, and he posted an OPS+ of 123 or better in every other full season aside from his first in MLB. He was a great signing for them, & I just don't agree at all that he was a flop of any kind. By the quick-&-dirty OPS+, he was in the top 25 in the AL in hitting in each of his four full seasons after his debut of '03. That's definitely better than an average OF.

 

 

He was on the wrong side of his prime by the time he came over, but he wasn't ancient either (28 years old when he first came over).

 

I agree with this completely, but again, this is what the Yankees knew they were purchasing. I think if people had the idea that Matsui would hit at a Pujols-caliber level, they were kidding themselves.

 

Btw, interesting discussion on Japanese players to spawn out of this thread.