Greinke: someone talk me off the ledge

[Thurston Fluff]

I don't think anyone denies it is a real thing as much as some think it can't be clearly determined by other people. Most particularly fans.

[danzig6767]

Well that's the problem with the pitchfx data, it's not sortable and every game just ends up looking the same, nor is there any context. What would be extremely interesting (and I'm sure teams have access to this sort of thing) would be to look at batted ball result by location for each pitcher and be able to look at ABs in a sequential manner. We'll get there at some point, but the tools we as fans have access to just haven't progressed far enough yet.

I can and have analyzed pitch f/x data myself. That how I did things like this:

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/vel_0412.jpg

The raw data is available to anyone and I just used Excel for everything. You can also just use this site to look at AB by AB:

http://brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php

Here's Greinke's AB against Tosini, when he gave up the 3 run HR:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/numlocation.php?pitchSel=425844&game=gid_2011_07_03_milmlb_minmlb_1/&batterX=35&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=3

That third pitch was a 93 MPH four seam fastball that that had good rise but was left up in the zone. I suspect that was not where he wanted it but I also bet that he gets away with it more often than not. Again, we need to compare it to some kind of baseline. It would be nice to feed velocity, movement an location into an algorithm to get a better sense of what our expectation is based only on that (I realize that there are other factors).

Lucroy was set up inside on that pitch, i remember it clearly. Greinke just badly missed his target on that one.

[logan82]

I don't think anyone denies it is a real thing as much as some think it can't be clearly determined by other people. Most particularly fans.

Are they confident because they are successful or are they successful because they are confident? How much is one influenced by the other? Which has a bigger influence?

[Thurston Fluff]

I don't think anyone denies it is a real thing as much as some think it can't be clearly determined by other people. Most particularly fans.

Are they confident because they are successful or are they successful because they are confident? How much is one influenced by the other? Which has a bigger influence?

I think it's irrelevant to this conversation. The relevant part is whether we can see said confidence. To answer your quesiton though I think each can lead to the other. It doesn't have to be exclusively one way or the other.

[ninja33]

I suspect that was not where he wanted it but I also bet that he gets away with it more often than not.

 

Is he getting hit on mistake pitches more often than usual or is he making more mistakes than usual? That is the million dollar question right there. I'm not sure how much it matters looking ahead. He's either making more mistakes than usual which should even out or his mistakes have been getting hit more often than usual which should even out. Should being the key word in both cases. Going forward I think we'll see more of the usual Greinke which is somewhere between where he is now and his Cy Young year.

According to fangraphs, only 40.7% of Greinke's pitches have been in the strike zone. That's far and away a career low for him, and about the fifth lowest in the league among starters. You can't say this for sure, but a logical conclusion would be fewer pitches in the strike zone=fewer mistakes

[prophet]

I'm sorry but someone tell me how the HELL you can tell if a pitcher is concentrating or not while pitching? Is it similar to knowing when a batter is showing confidence while batting?

 

I think it's all a bunch of BS but anyone is feel free to post some screen grabs to educate me. I need a baseball cliche 101 course, apparently

. Any sport I've ever played, confidence was huge. The yips exist in

every sport. Nobody can really explain them, but they happen all the

time. When I played in high school and JUCO, if I was on a hot streak,

the ball looked huge, if i was on a cold streak, it was in the catchers

mitt before I even saw it. I'm not a sabermetric stat guy, never will

be. I just like watching a game and enjoying it for the entertainment

value. But, just because something like confidence, or clutch, or body

language can't be put in a graph, doesn't mean it doesn't exist. There

is no reason that stat guys and non-stat guys have to constantly be

arguing about this crap. Because neither side is ever going to change

the other sides view and both sides will always say that they are

right. I understand that arguing and debating are all part of the

forum, but the bottom line is, a stat guy will never view this great

game through the eyes of a non-stat guy, and vice versa. Everyone is

watching the same game, but everyone is seeing it differently.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm sorry but someone tell me how the HELL you can tell if a pitcher is concentrating or not while pitching? Is it similar to knowing when a batter is showing confidence while batting?

 

I think it's all a bunch of BS but anyone is feel free to post some screen grabs to educate me. I need a baseball cliche 101 course, apparently

. Any sport I've ever played, confidence was huge. The yips exist in

every sport. Nobody can really explain them, but they happen all the

time. When I played in high school and JUCO, if I was on a hot streak,

the ball looked huge, if i was on a cold streak, it was in the catchers

mitt before I even saw it. I'm not a sabermetric stat guy, never will

be. I just like watching a game and enjoying it for the entertainment

value. But, just because something like confidence, or clutch, or body

language can't be put in a graph, doesn't mean it doesn't exist. There

is no reason that stat guys and non-stat guys have to constantly be

arguing about this crap. Because neither side is ever going to change

the other sides view and both sides will always say that they are

right. I understand that arguing and debating are all part of the

forum, but the bottom line is, a stat guy will never view this great

game through the eyes of a non-stat guy, and vice versa. Everyone is

watching the same game, but everyone is seeing it differently.

Agreed. Way back in the day, I used to pitch, I had a tendency to get flustered/angry if things went wrong (error, bad call, walk, etc.), this would cause a lapse of concentration and quite often a bad inning. Now I'm not saying that I was a very good pitcher or pitched at a very high level, but I would assume some MLB guys have this issue as well, even though they are world class athletes. These days, I do the same thing on the golf course if I lose control of my emotions or start over thinking things. One bad shot can totally turn things.

[prophet]

Exactly RockCo. I'll make a wager that when you were having a good game on the mound, and your confidence was high, you could throw wherever you wanted to. It was the same way when I was hitting and "seeing the ball well". Confidence can't be measured with any kind of stat, and you can't make a graph about it, but it is still real with any sport, and it is a huge factor when it comes to success.

[jason21nl]

I play softball with an ex major league pitcher and get to pick his brain often and even though they play at the highest level they still have some of the same problems us regular guys have when it comes to focusing, or concentrating especially when an error extends an inning

[Thurston Fluff]

You can't say this for sure, but a logical conclusion would be fewer pitches in the strike zone=fewer mistakes

 

It would be logical to conclude his missing the zone more often now than in than past is related to missing his spots wouldn't it? If he's making mistakes more often then it seems logical more are in a hittable spot than in the past as well.

[JohnBriggs12]

To add a little insult to injury, Carlos Villanueva threw 6 shutout innings last night lowering his ERA to 2.99. Carlos has a 1.08 WHIP, a .218 BAA, a .316 Slugging percentage against, and is making $1.42 million this year. Plus he's putting up those numbers in the AL. Oh yeah, and the Brewers got nothing in players back for him.

 

For the $13.5 million, and 4 players, the Brewers are getting a lot less from Greinke than the Blue Jays are getting from Villanueva.

[rluzinski]

On average, starting pitchers who have a bad start to a game do not performance any worse than expected. As always, there are always exceptions but the average major league pitcher does not perform worse after getting "flustered".

[fondybrewfan]

Hindsight is 20/20.

 

Virtually no one would have preferred we kept Villanueva and our prospects rather than go after Grienke. Villanueva was always OK as a Brewer; but for a team that was meaning to go "All In" in 2011; I don't think he fit in the Brewers starting rotation plans. Of course he still could have fit Estrada's role.

 

Just as Grienke has had an unusually poor start to 2011 Villanueva has had an unusually good start. Now maybe Villaneuva has just figured it out; but I still tend to believe that both Grienke and Villanueva should regress to their career norms before the season is done. Atleast I hope for my sanity that Grienke does.

[TooLiveBrew]

This is in response to fondybrewfan's post #211 in this topic, which is sometimes visible & sometimes not when I click on this topic. Thanks Yuku!

 

 

Of course he still could have fit Estrada's role.

 

And for $1.4M, compared to Estrada's league-minimum

 

 

I still tend to believe that both Grienke and Villanueva should regress to their career norms before the season is done.

 

I'd have to guess this winds up being correct.

[RockCoCougars]

Villanueva was Macha-ed. He was done here.

[Oldcity]

For Greinke to pitch the same way all season and not have a sub-3 ERA would be incredibly unlucky. He has the widest gap between xFIP and ERA in history... And is just about doubling second place!

 

Who knows what contributes to it. The article on the main forum from Grantland shows that defense is likely some factor, although he has been hit hard at times. All I'm saying is a gap that wide is beyond bizarre and extremely, extremely unlikely to continue.

[logan82]

On average, starting pitchers who have a bad start to a game do not performance any worse than expected. As always, there are always exceptions but the average major league pitcher does not perform worse after getting "flustered".

Didn't they find in The Book that pitchers would have hot streaks but not cold streaks?

[HiAndTight]

To add a little insult to injury, Carlos Villanueva threw 6 shutout innings last night lowering his ERA to 2.99. Carlos has a 1.08 WHIP, a .218 BAA, a .316 Slugging percentage against, and is making $1.42 million this year. Plus he's putting up those numbers in the AL. Oh yeah, and the Brewers got nothing in players back for him.

 

For the $13.5 million, and 4 players, the Brewers are getting a lot less from Greinke than the Blue Jays are getting from Villanueva.

That adds no insult to me. I was a big Villy fan the entire time he was here and thought he profiled better as a starting pitcher, but even as a fan, I'd never want to rely on him in a playoff series.

 

Greinke's still clearly the better candidate to start a post-season series. I'm not that persuaded by half a season of either. I'll still take Greinke every time out over Villanueva, and we still have the potential to match up well with anyone in a short series.

[fondybrewfan]

Another ehhhhhh start

 

Looks great for 4 innings and bad for two

[jjfanec]

Another ehhhhhh start

 

Looks great for 4 innings and bad for two

6 innings and 2 earned runs and 10 Ks is a pretty solid start. If he has half of a defense behind him he is probably able to go 7 at least. He was making guys look silly last night.

[Invader3K]

6 innings and 2 earned runs and 10 Ks is a pretty solid start. If he has half of a defense behind him he is probably able to go 7 at least. He was making guys look silly last night.

Agreed. Not a bad start at all, and I liked how well he was mixing up his pitches.

I'm glad they changed the scoring decision to give Gamel an error, because he deserved it. It seems like the defense has let down Greinke every single one of his starts, and he has to pitch longer in certain innings than he should have to. I know they don't play much better when our other pitchers are on the mound, but the problem seems magnified when the guy who is supposed to be our "ace" is pitching.

 

[fondybrewfan]

I did not realize that they gave Gamel the error. Obviously someone like Scott Rolen makes that play but Grienke still let all those guys on base

[strawbossisevil]

Yes, but he made the pitches to get himself out of the jam. It was a play that just about every 3b makes. He botched it.

[JJHardy7]

Greinke still did load the bases...while Gamel should've made the play it's not like the defense had much to do with hitting a batter or walking a guy.

 

I still hope he turns it around. He's going to have to do more than last night's start to justify that trade. I hope he gets there, but we're past the halfway point. It's time for him to dominate and hopefully last night was a small start of that.

[Tedaldtada]

We have a lot of work to do with regards to how we fans evaluate players. This thread proves it. The same people that stood with Yuni are now against Greinke. Gee, reeaaal surprising.

 

Who knows what Greinke's line will look like in September, but it is very difficult for me not to be optimistic.