Greinke: someone talk me off the ledge

[The Truth]

The only big game experience Greinke had, prior to this season, was All-Star game experiences. I'm not sure of his exact stats in All-Star games, but I do recall him striking out the side in one game, I believe it was 2009. Very small sample

 

The guy has absolutely filthy stuff. He'll come around

[pitchleague]

I have considered the "big game" mentality might be a bit too much for him. He's a guy who's had anxiety problems in the past and they don't just go away. So I'm sure there is some sort of element of that involved. Thank you for bringing this point up.

 

Greinke has definitely been a disappointment to me, based on what we all expected out of him. Sure, those K's and BB's are nice, as well as an all-star caliber K:BB ratio, but he's also been getting hit around. Sometimes early and often. This is a guy that I figured would be good for 7-8 innings per start. Has he even gone into the 8th inning yet? I don't recall it. And I don't think he's gone into the 7th all that often either.

 

Color me unimpressed with him overall. I feel like a child who got a great Christmas present and then 6 months later that same present is a forgotten gift that hasn't been nearly as great as I thought it was, especially after all my friends are laughing at me for dragging it around everywhere and sticking up for it.

[TheCrew07]

Can we stop going to the luck card now and just accept that Grienke tends to give up runs in bunches and has been very hittable in those situations?

You always make [mistakes], but I've been making them too much in big situations," Greinke said. "Those are the times you need to get out of it and make good pitches. I seem to be making bad pitches in the most important times. I need to figure out how to stop doing that. It's upsetting."

He intended to bury a fastball inside against the left-handed-hitting Tosoni. Instead it was up and on the outside half of home plate, and ended up clanking off a railing atop the right-field wall.

"I don't know why I made a pitch that bad when there's two guys on base," Greinke said. "I don't get it."

If you watched the game yesterday you might have noticed that the slider Greinke used to strike out Thome hung belt high right down the middle of the plate, it was a pretty bad pitch. For whatever reason Thome was looking for something else and didn't even take the bat off his shoulder... I've said before I've been surprised by the number of bad pitches he gets away with, the only logical explanation I can come up with is that he does a good job keeping hitters guessing. If anything, I think he's been fortunate to not give up more runs with how inconsistent his location is, especially with his FB.

[RightFieldCoder]

Well...we could have avoided the huge Betancourt thread and that constant discussion...I personally would love to see that.

 

It would have been replaced by a 30 page Escobar thread and a 60 page "Who Should Be Our 5th Pitcher?" thread.

Cappy would probably still be around.

I'm as disappointed with Greinke as I was about Mass Effect. The results did not live up to the hype.

 

[logan82]

Well...we could have avoided the huge Betancourt thread and that constant discussion...I personally would love to see that.

 

It would have been replaced by a 30 page Escobar thread and a 60 page "Who Should Be Our 5th Pitcher?" thread.

Cappy would probably still be around.

I'm as disappointed with Greinke as I was about Mass Effect. The results did not live up to the hype.

 

I disagree with the analogy. Mass Effect was awesome.

[Funketown]

Does anybody have those "heat maps" for Greinke's recent starts, or could anybody tell me where to find them? It would be interesting to see heat maps of splits, i.e. with RISP vs. without RISP, just to see if there are any immediately obvious differences.

 

To put his K-rate in a historical perspective, Greinke's 11.76 K/9 ratio would put him 10th all time for single season K/9. Above him would be Randy Johnson (x6), Pedro Martinez (x2), and Kerry Wood.

 

He makes hitters look so foolish at times yet they are knocking him around the park at other times. What a confusing 68 innings from Greinke.

[davego]

Since it's fairly agreed upon that Zack has the "stuff" to be at least successful, if not an Ace...then doesn't some of the focus need to be on the coaching staff and game-prep?

[The Truth]

Since it's fairly agreed upon that Zack has the "stuff" to be at least successful, if not an Ace...then doesn't some of the focus need to be on the coaching staff and game-prep?

I think most of the focus should be on the reality that we're dealing with a small sample size. It has been 12 games. Just 12 games

 

Greinke's career ERA is 3.92 with a 1.263 WHIP. Maybe that is all he'll ever be. Interestingly enough, the pitcher he's most similar to, according to BaseballReference.com, through age 26 is Ben Sheets. Sheets has a 3.79 career ERA and a 1.216 WHIP

[RockCoCougars]

I think that it's simple as this....Greinke's slider is his out pitch, perhaps regarded as the best in baseball, but this season he hasn't had consistent command of it. He's struck out tons of guys with it, but has had problems locating it earlier in the count. Then he either falls behind guys or hangs one and gets hit hard. I think the big innings are somewhat a mental thing with him getting upset and flustered and/or trying to be too fine. I really don't think that he's collapsing under the pressure of pitching in Milwaukee in June. I say we give him a few more starts before we declare the trade to be the worst in Brewer's history.

[JohnBriggs12]

Since it's fairly agreed upon that Zack has the "stuff" to be at least successful, if not an Ace...then doesn't some of the focus need to be on the coaching staff and game-prep?

No. His failures seem more to do with lapses in concentration. That's on the pitcher, not the coaches.

[cnycerveceros]

I want to like Greinke, but right now I don't. He has, probably unfairly, become the focus of my Brewers' angst. His starts against the Cubs and Yankees, when I would have liked to see him step up, were awful. I put Sunday's loss on him because of the 3 runs he allowed after the Brewers scored 5. The Twins were back in the game immediately, and it's on him.

 

I look at his numbers, however, and they're aren't nearly as discouraging as my purely subjective feelings. They aren't as good as I would have hoped, but they aren't as bad as I expect them to be either.

[davego]

"No. His failures seem more to do with lapses in concentration. That's on the pitcher, not the coaches."

 

That very well maybe the case. I'll assume the coaching staff has done what they can, but Zack maybe more "challenging" person to coach. I hope that is...addressed.

[Tbadder]

I'd jump from the ledge. I suspect most of us see the writing on the wall, and suicide might be less painful. My own form of suicide from this date on will be to follow, but expect nothing. I'll use my old coping mechanism--expect the loss and look for small signs here and there that point to some kind of long term solution, which Zach doesn't represent.

[rluzinski]

I'm sorry but someone tell me how the HELL you can tell if a pitcher is concentrating or not while pitching? Is it similar to knowing when a batter is showing confidence while batting?

 

I think it's all a bunch of BS but anyone is feel free to post some screen grabs to educate me. I need a baseball cliche 101 course, apparently.

[stoutdude04]

I'm sorry but someone tell me how the HELL you can tell if a pitcher is concentrating or not while pitching? Is it similar to knowing when a batter is showing confidence while batting?

It's simple...you just need to look deep into his eyes.

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[TheCrew07]

I'm sorry but someone tell me how the HELL you can tell if a pitcher is concentrating or not while pitching? Is it similar to knowing when a batter is showing confidence while batting?

 

I think it's all a bunch of BS but anyone is feel free to post some screen grabs to educate me. I need a baseball cliche 101 course, apparently.

I'm as shocked that you refuse to acknowledge how easy it is to read body language, we've had at least 4 courses on it at work over the last 10 years to work better with customers. Furthermore anyone who teaches or coaches and is any good at it naturally and quickly learns to read body language because in many cases it gives a more accurate picture than the what the student or athlete will tell you for a variety of reasons.

 

It's not voodoo, it's not some mystical power, it's a skill, like any other learned over time. I appreciate how heavily you lean towards statistics, but it's very difficult to have a meaningful conversation about sports when you're so dismissive about the nuances in the game. Like the difference between just throwing a ball to a spot or trying to aim it in there. The former is what every athlete should do, the latter is a mental issue that manifests itself physically with poor results; loss of velocity, inconsistent location, etc. Any pitcher in baseball or softball will immediately understand, any quaterback in football will immediately understand, but if you haven't experienced it personally and aren't open to other possibilities than random variance or luck, I'm not sure how you'll ever understand. It's the difference between watching what someone is doing and actually understanding what it takes to accomplish the task.

 

What's your explanation for Greinke's blow-up innings? He's certainly not giving up dribblers all over the diamond, balls are getting smoked. I've been saying since his 3rd start that his FB location is inconsistent and he's been hanging his slider quite a bit when I've watched him pitch.

[Thurston Fluff]

I'm sorry but someone tell me how the HELL you can tell if a pitcher is concentrating or not while pitching? Is it similar to knowing when a batter is showing confidence while batting?

 

I would guess the same way a stats guy knows when the numbers don't match the production luck or random variance is the reason why. Personally I think all of them from both sides of the isle are really are just cop out answers when trying to understand something that is impossible to understand with the information at hand. Each answer could be true but there really is no way of knowing and no test to put them through to get an answer. Sometimes we just have to accept we can't know and move on.

[rluzinski]

I'm sorry but someone tell me how the HELL you can tell if a pitcher is concentrating or not while pitching? Is it similar to knowing when a batter is showing confidence while batting?

 

I think it's all a bunch of BS but anyone is feel free to post some screen grabs to educate me. I need a baseball cliche 101 course, apparently.

I'm as shocked that you refuse to acknowledge how easy it is to read body language, we've had at least 4 courses on it at work over the last 10 years to work better with customers. Furthermore anyone who teaches or coaches and is any good at it naturally and quickly learns to read body language because in many cases it gives a more accurate picture than the what the student or athlete will tell you for a variety of reasons.

I can see why you would be shocked because I don't think we are talking about the same thing. Yes, I notice when Wolf is grumbling under his breath after missing the location on a pitch or when Hart swears after swinging at junk. That's reacting to a bad result. Does that adversely affect future performance? Probably for some, perhaps not for others.

I want to know the body language I should be looking for that shows Greinke is lacking confidence BEFORE something bad happens. What was it about Greinke's body language that suggested he was lacking confidence BEFORE he throws the pitch that sails over the fence. Is there really a correlation? Are those unfair questions to ask?

What's your explanation for Greinke's blow-up innings? He's certainly not giving up dribblers all over the diamond, balls are getting smoked. I've been saying since his 3rd start that his FB location is inconsistent and he's been hanging his slider quite a bit when I've watched him pitch.

I don't have an explanation, as I haven't studied the data, nor do I don't trust my memory to gauge how well he's located the 600-some fastballs he's thrown this year. Furthermore, if you've ever looked at a graph of a starter's pitch location for a given game, they are always all over the place. I just grabbed a random game from yesterday... is this good pitch location?

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/location.php?pitchSel=430935&game=gid_2011_07_05_phimlb_flomlb_1/&batterX=&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=

I have no idea just looking at that. Now add an extra layer of the uncertainty of identifying pitch location while watching a game on TV.

Is there a correlation between bad pitch location and bad performance? Of course. That's been tested and verified. But speed and movement are also huge factors. Most pitches with a bad result will have poor location because most pitches that can even be hit have relatively poor location (In the strike zone but not on corners). Of course, even more of those pitches will a called strike, foul or a ball-in-play out. The key is to compare Greinke's 2011 pitch location with some kind of base line.

I'm am skeptical of ANYONE'S ability to analyze large datasets accurately and without bias. You may be 100% correct that his pitch location has been poor this year. That wouldn't be surprising at all. But right now, it's just an unsubstantiated theory. most of what we talk about here is, so none of us should be TOO sure that we are right about anything.

[rluzinski]

I'm sorry but someone tell me how the HELL you can tell if a pitcher is concentrating or not while pitching? Is it similar to knowing when a batter is showing confidence while batting?

 

I would guess the same way a stats guy knows when the numbers don't match the production luck or random variance is the reason why. Personally I think all of them from both sides of the isle are really are just cop out answers when trying to understand something that is impossible to understand with the information at hand. Each answer could be true but there really is no way of knowing and no test to put them through to get an answer. Sometimes we just have to accept we can't know and move on.

I agree 100%. And for the record, no stat guy can EVER tell you if something is based on just statistical variance (luck) or not. He can only give you the odds that it is. Anything more is just speculation.

[TheCrew07]

Well that's the problem with the pitchfx data, it's not sortable and every game just ends up looking the same, nor is there any context. What would be extremely interesting (and I'm sure teams have access to this sort of thing) would be to look at batted ball result by location for each pitcher and be able to look at ABs in a sequential manner. We'll get there at some point, but the tools we as fans have access to just haven't progressed far enough yet.

 

At any rate, when Carlos Zambrano was younger it was easy to get in his head and force the blow-up innings. It didn't take much to get him to go off the air, and error by his teammates, a spat with the umpire, whatever the cause in that particular game. He pitched horribly when he was angry, he's just the most obvious example that comes to mind. Parra would be another, for all his physical gifts he's not successful, I don't think his problems were physical in nature. In this case I don't believe Greinke's problems are mental, but in MLB where everyone is a supreme talent (relative to you or I), most of the separation is going to come from whatever is going on in their head. Plenty of the best athletes fail in every sport, just like plenty of the lesser talented players succeed. Depending on who you listen to and what you choose to believe, 20% of our success is physical talent/natural gifts/etc and 80% is mental. So while I may not believe his issues are mental in nature, I'm not willing to dismiss the idea either.

[rluzinski]

Well that's the problem with the pitchfx data, it's not sortable and every game just ends up looking the same, nor is there any context. What would be extremely interesting (and I'm sure teams have access to this sort of thing) would be to look at batted ball result by location for each pitcher and be able to look at ABs in a sequential manner. We'll get there at some point, but the tools we as fans have access to just haven't progressed far enough yet.

I can and have analyzed pitch f/x data myself. That how I did things like this:

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/vel_0412.jpg

The raw data is available to anyone and I just used Excel for everything. You can also just use this site to look at AB by AB:

http://brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php

Here's Greinke's AB against Tosini, when he gave up the 3 run HR:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/numlocation.php?pitchSel=425844&game=gid_2011_07_03_milmlb_minmlb_1/&batterX=35&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=3

That third pitch was a 93 MPH four seam fastball that that had good rise but was left up in the zone. I suspect that was not where he wanted it but I also bet that he gets away with it more often than not. Again, we need to compare it to some kind of baseline. It would be nice to feed velocity, movement an location into an algorithm to get a better sense of what our expectation is based only on that (I realize that there are other factors).

[Thurston Fluff]

I suspect that was not where he wanted it but I also bet that he gets away with it more often than not.

 

Is he getting hit on mistake pitches more often than usual or is he making more mistakes than usual? That is the million dollar question right there. I'm not sure how much it matters looking ahead. He's either making more mistakes than usual which should even out or his mistakes have been getting hit more often than usual which should even out. Should being the key word in both cases. Going forward I think we'll see more of the usual Greinke which is somewhere between where he is now and his Cy Young year.

[razzzorsharp]

I'm sorry but someone tell me how the HELL you can tell if a pitcher is concentrating or not while pitching? Is it similar to knowing when a batter is showing confidence while batting?

 

I think it's all a bunch of BS but anyone is feel free to post some screen grabs to educate me. I need a baseball cliche 101 course, apparently.

I haven't read this whole thread, and I don't know if I want to, but I think there is something to be said for having a bit of confidence helping you. When I play basketball, softball, or golf there are days where I feel like I can hit anything. Other days, not so much and I think my performance and results are affected by it.

 

I am no big leaguer, far from it, but if I can feel that from time to time in my backyard, on the course, or on the field, I am sure they can feel it to. Do I believe that they are "seeing it better" as Bill says? No, but I think a little confidence will go a little way.

[razzzorsharp]

I'm sorry but someone tell me how the HELL you can tell if a pitcher is concentrating or not while pitching? Is it similar to knowing when a batter is showing confidence while batting?

 

I think it's all a bunch of BS but anyone is feel free to post some screen grabs to educate me. I need a baseball cliche 101 course, apparently.

I haven't read this whole thread, and I don't know if I want to, but I think there is something to be said for having a bit of confidence helping you. When I play basketball, softball, or golf there are days where I feel like I can hit anything. Other days, not so much and I think my performance and results are affected by it.

 

I am no big leaguer, far from it, but if I can feel that from time to time in my backyard, on the course, or on the field, I am sure they can feel it to. Do I believe that they are "seeing it better" as Bill says? No, but I think a little confidence will go a little way.

By the way, this wasn't to say that I can detect confidence, concentrating, or trying harder in others because I cannot. This was all based on how I feel when I play.

[jason21nl]

when guys are going good they absolutely are seeing the ball better. They are picking up the spin of the ball earlier and can almost slow the ball down to put better swings on the ball. A lot of times when a guy is going bad, he's not picking up the spin at all and even slow fastballs seem to be going 100mph. I don't think you can really tell a guys mental state before something bad happens but I would be willing to bet Casey has no confidence right now and that is hurting him.