Greinke: someone talk me off the ledge

[M Skjellyfetti]

Go back and look at the fangraphs article posted in this tread. His LOB can be explained by his line drive rate being higher. That is not luck.

 

The following is a direct quote from the article: "Finally, Greinke’s LOB% has dropped to a completely unsustainable level. Only 55.2% of the batters Greinke puts on base are being stranded. The league average for LOB% is typically 70% (Greinke’s career average is 71.7%), so we have to expect Greinke to improve there as well."

 

Greinke's BABIP is more likely to be affected by a high LD%, not his LOB%.

 

To tell how good a guy is compared to others may take three years. To compare how good he is against himself takes no time at all.

 

I'm not sure what you're trying to say. I was replying directly to your statement: The upshot of that is Greinke has the same danged defense behind him as every other pitcher on this team. Yet with his defense being equal to the other pitchers he has not had nearly as good of results as they have. I don't think we can draw any conclusions from comparing our pitchers' ERAs because it would be highly unlikely that they've had the same defensive performance behind them.

[logan82]

M Skjellyfetti wrote:

The following is a direct quote from the article: "Finally, Greinke’s LOB% has dropped to a completely unsustainable level. Only 55.2% of the batters Greinke puts on base are being stranded. The league average for LOB% is typically 70% (Greinke’s career average is 71.7%), so we have to expect Greinke to improve there as well."

 

Greinke's BABIP is more likely to be affected by a high LD%, not his LOB%.

Both will be affected. If more balls are in play logically there will be more hits and fewer guys stranded.

[M Skjellyfetti]

Both will be affected. If more balls are in play logically there will be more hits and fewer guys stranded.

 

True, but LD% alone doesn't quite explain his LOB% being as low as it is.

[Thurston Fluff]

I don't think we can draw any conclusions from comparing our pitchers' ERAs because it would be highly unlikely that they've had the same defensive performance behind them.

 

It takes several years of data to determine how good a player's defense is compared to other players not because the player's defense fluctuates so much from day to day but because it takes a large amount of data to determine what it is vs other players. Including errors in collection of data.

It also is used for individuals not the entire team. An individual may get what 10 chances to make a play per game? The team gets a whole lot more. Multiply the chances of one player by nine and you have the amount of data collected by the whole team. It would stand to reason then that team defense accumulates it's data much quicker than any individual on it.

 

Beyond that you have to ask yourself which set of data is most complete/telling? You are right that there may be some amount of variance in how well the team actually defended in one game vs the next. As I already pointed out that variance should go down much quicker when measuring an entire team. So we should ask how even is the defense vs how much good data we can collect by adding so much more information than what xFIP give us? Remember xFIP and FIP leave out a whole lot of outcomes that the pitcher had a significant amount of control over. Some of that information is telling of the pitcher's ability just not exclusively his ability. If there is a way to include that data without skewing the results it should be added to get a more complete picture. In cases of comparing two pitchers on the same team I think that data should be used because it adds more good information without adding much bad info. While FIP may not add any bad info it leaves out so much that the amount of bad info from the defense is negated when comparing player on the same team.

While I can agree ERA isn't perfect to judge pitchers on the same team I disagree that FIP gives you more accurate information.

[Raw Biz]

Greinke's difference between ERA and xFIP is over 3.5 right now. Since 02, the biggest gap was 1.88 (Carlos Silva). I still believe his numbers will come down significantly. I see him finishing the year somewhere around a 4.00 ERA (probably around a 3.00 the rest of the way). Not as good as we might've hoped but still decent.

[JJHardy7]

Not sure if it has been mentioned here...I know I wish Greinke pitched better so far...but didn't he get two extra days off in this whole thing? Was that too much time off?

 

Not to make an excuse...he needs to step up ASAP, but just wondering if that had any impact at all.

[Rhett16]

Not sure that today's outing is getting anyone off that ledge. It is not like the Twins are some offensive juggernaut.

[ELCABALLO45]

I remember how excited I was when they traded for Greinke. I went out and ordered a player T shirt right away.

 

I really hope he figures it out soon. He has been a pretty big disappointment so far this year.

[Funketown]

Just food for thought, not trying to get into a clutch/unclutch argument, just putting this out there:

 

Before today, with RISP, Greinke's batting line against is .333/.391/.667/1.058 with a 3.17 K/BB (70 PA's). Without RISP, it's .261/.300/.444/.744 with a 7.83 K/BB (150 PA's).

 

He just seems to be getting knocked around the park at the worst possible times. Man is this guy confusing.

[RockCoCougars]

Has he given up a solo home run this year? Obviously he has- Thome drilled one today, but it seems like every homer is a three run shot.

[Bombers]

Donald Zachary Greinke stinks. He is lucky his run support for this year is:

 

Run's / 27 outs while the pitcher was in the game: 6.2 runs (career is 4.2)

Run's / 27 outs for every game he has started: 5.4

 

A slight difference if you just look at when he is in the game opposed to the stat that includes the last few innings of the games he has started. But whichever you want to look at 5-6 runs a game we are scoring in games he pitches. Thus a 7-3 record.

[JJHardy7]

I really wish Greinke didn't get hurt playing 'basketball' or whatever the real injury was.

 

That was the excuse for awhile (which I get), but now I'm not so sure we have an excuse. I would've thought he would've come out and been awesome against NL teams. I guess at this point I again wonder if this is a guy that really can put his team on his shoulder(s). I don't think he is. This is his shot right now to get a HUGE contract with someone 16 months from now. Milwaukee isn't a huge town, etc and if he can't do it here he won't do it. In KC, sure. He was great on a team that had no expectations. I'm starting to believe he thrives when nothing is expected of the team.

 

I also disagree with the comment that there is no evidence of him being mentally weak. I think there is plenty of evidence given his past. That's not a knock on him. He just hasn't done it on the stage we are on now (which is not a huge stage). I hope I'm totally wrong, but we're 1/4 through our time with Greinke. At this point, I'd undo that trade if I could. We'd need another pitcher, but given what we gave up I think we could've done better. At this point, it wouldn't take much.

[markedman5]

You got to hand it to Zack. No excuses from him.

 

http://milwaukee.brewers....lb_1&mode=recap&c_id=mil

[danzig6767]

You got to hand it to Zack. No excuses from him.

 

http://milwaukee.brewers....lb_1&mode=recap&c_id=mil

What excuses could he try making?

 

Everyone watching can see what's consistently happening to him in starts. He'll be striking out lots of batters and then he allows some baserunners, boom, Zack makes a bad pitch or two that gets smoked and in come those baserunners across the plate.

[The Truth]

Greinke has had very nasty stuff at times during this season and has had a few great games. There is plenty of reason for me to believe that he will be a very valuable asset to the Brewers in the 2nd half and will finish the season with an ERA under 3.60

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Bernie's Crew take from a couple weeks ago.

I don't know if this was brought up, but this was a take on Greinke's slider post-getting hit in late 2009. Raises as many questions as answers, but seems like a thoughtful take.

[BrewCrewForever]

Of course hindsight is 20/20 but right now, Greinke has not been worth giving up the 4 players we did. I know hiw K/BB ratio has been great but he gets hit hard in just about all of his starts and he seems to have major issues pitching out of the stretch. Runners got on against him and he becomes Manny Parra. It is very hard to watch. His body language has been terrible as well, doesn't look to me like he cares much when he is out on the mound. Why Zack walked Thome today on 4 straight pitches with 2 ours and a 6-1 lead is inexcusable.

 

Before the Yankees blowup I was still trying to make excuses for him but I can't anymore. He has been very disappointing. Not even close to the pitcher I thought we were getting. Rally hope he turns it around and soon.

[RockCoCougars]

What have the 4 players given up for him done? Escobar has picked up right where he left off last year at the plate- pretty much brutal, and the other 3 guys have been in the minors. Greinke is striking out 11.5 guys per 9 with almost 7 k's per walk, and with a better WHIP than Gallardo and Wolf (before today). Like Gallardo and to a lesser extent Marcum and Wolf, he seems to be a victim of 'one bad pitch' that results in a crooked number.

[TheCrew07]

Ha...

 

Well that's that thing about being a pitcher, the different between a good outing and a bad outing is what... 5-8 pitches or so? Either you execute those pitches or you don't, and Zack is grooving more than 1 pitch per game... that's not close to accurare representation of his season.

[jwill535]

This is one of those times that stats can convince you of something that really isnt there. If you watch him, the balls that are hit off of him are hit really hard. He hasnt been getting easy outs like the other guys on the staff.

[Invader3K]

He just hasn't been the pitcher he was supposed to be coming into this season. I agree with others above that you can't use his spring injury as an excuse. It's time to get it done, and he has yet to have a really "ace-like" start this season. The poor defense hasn't helped him, but great pitchers overcome those sort of circumstances. I wonder if he is tipping pitches. Mechanically, he seems to be fine and the velocity is there.

[JJHardy7]

What have the 4 players given up for him done? Escobar has picked up right where he left off last year at the plate- pretty much brutal, and the other 3 guys have been in the minors. Greinke is striking out 11.5 guys per 9 with almost 7 k's per walk, and with a better WHIP than Gallardo and Wolf (before today). Like Gallardo and to a lesser extent Marcum and Wolf, he seems to be a victim of 'one bad pitch' that results in a crooked number.

 

Well...we could have avoided the huge Betancourt thread and that constant discussion...I personally would love to see that. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I think the long-term impact is what some are worried about. Greinke hasn't pitched all that great in 1/4 of his likely tenure with the Brewers. The guys we have up are under control for several years...that and Odorizzi was recently bumped to AA.

[logan82]

Well...we could have avoided the huge Betancourt thread and that constant discussion...I personally would love to see that.

 

It would have been replaced by a 30 page Escobar thread and a 60 page "Who Should Be Our 5th Pitcher?" thread.

[pebadger]

I don't think he's tipping his pitches. I he's just been scouted well and guys are waiting on certain pitches. then they are driving them.

 

There was a comment earlier about most mistakes not being hit and ZG was just unfortunte in that regard. While the first part true, if you're looking for a pitch that is a mistake, as opposed to seeing a mistake and then trying to hit it as you realize it, I think you have a much better chance of driving the ball. If anything, Greinke is just not "effectively wild" enough with his mistakes. I don't think he's surprising anyone, so when he misses he misses in a pretty defined zone in which hitters can feast. I don't beleive it just bad luck repeating in the Chicago, New York and Minny starts, at least to the extent that we can significantly attribute his results to the "luck" component of the equation. What happened in each of those games was very similar to what happened in the others. Guys with talent get the benefit of the doubt, but he's just very hittable right now.

[DuWayne Steurer]

While I agree that it seems that Greinke's been a victim of poor luck if anything, at what point do his brutal *results* stop being 'bad luck' and start indicating that he's just not pitching well?

 

Yeah, he's striking out a lot of guys, but he's still allowing a lot of runs.

 

He's got a poor LOB% relative to his peripherals, but maybe he's just not focusing properly when he's got guys on base?

 

I prefer to prescribe to statistical data, and yeah, I know that when you have statistical outliers, you should take them with a grain of salt. However, with Greinke's history, and his known issues, can't we at least CONSIDER that the playoff race atmosphere is putting more pressure on him than he can handle, and that he's just pitching poorly in pressure situations?

 

I'm not stating this as fact, not at all, I'm just saying that it should at least be considered, knowing what we know about the guy.