Greinke: someone talk me off the ledge

[JJHardy7]

I do hope ZG gets it together soon. He's had his moments and some stats support that, but a game like tonight (I know it is regular season and they all count the same) is when ZG needs to step up. He didn't.

 

I wish we could've traded for two Marcums at this point and not ZG, but hopefully he goes on a tear and proves me wrong. I'm not sure he has the mental makeup for playoff push/clutch games. I know I might be beat down around here for saying that, but so far he hasn't stepped up at any point in his career 'when it counted'. And to be fair...with KC it never counted. I guess we'll see what happens going forward, but we really needed him tonight and for whatever reason he didn't show up.

[JohnBriggs12]

ZG is the #4 SP on the staff as of today. That's the only stat that matters. The Brewers gave up a lot to get him, and they didn't make that trade for a #4 pitcher. If you're looking for stats, you can find them on either side to support your opinion. You can focus on this year, or on his career. The good news is whatever he has or hasn't done so far this year can turn around quickly in the 2nd half. If we get the ace ZG in September, all is forgiven.

You could make an argument he's their #5. He could get better in the 2nd half, and probably will but he's clearly not an ace. He's had one major league season where he pitched like an ace. That's the same number as Pavano (2004). Pavano's been no great shakes this year, but this team isn't any better with Greinke that it would be with Pavano, and they'd still have Escobar, Cain, Odorizzi and Jeffress.

[umphrey]

Agreed. He pitched like garbage tonight. The 1st inning was not his fault, but the 2nd was all his fault.

 

Just wasn't sure what the poster was saying. I laughed and then questioned. Hence, the LOL WUT???

I should have put the brilliant defense part in blue if that's what you meant. I thought he was doing OK but then looked frustrated after those screw ups.

[rluzinski]

ZG is the #4 SP on the staff as of today. That's the only stat that matters.

If we only care about how Greinke has performed so far this year, relative to the rest of the Brewer's current starting rotation, sure. I personally care more about what to expect for the rest of the year.

He could get better in the 2nd half, and probably will but he's clearly not an ace.

Clearly, if a lot of people disagree with that sentiment, it's probably not clear.

[Thurston Fluff]

Clearly, if a lot of people disagree with that sentiment, it's probably not clear.

 

The philosopher is shining through. I am so proud of you right now.

 

I personally care more about what to expect for the rest of the year.

 

So am I. I think by this point we can all agree he has not pitched well enough so far. I keep hoping he strings together a nice run and look at his outliers and think he will. But then I look at last season and he really didn't. He was good but not great. At first I heard he stopped throwing his slider because it was a lost season but now I'm not so sure that holds up. But then I hear things about him pitching to those predictive stats which I think could screw up the value of those stats. Simply doing so can skew those number's effectiveness at prediction. Then again I don't know if it does. Merely that it may. At this point I really don't know what to think going forward. As an optimist and someone who does ultimately accept large sample predictive stats I think I'll just keep believing the next one is the beginning of a great stretch.

[danzig6767]

Clearly, if a lot of people disagree with that sentiment, it's probably not clear.

 

The philosopher is shining through. I am so proud of you right now.

 

I personally care more about what to expect for the rest of the year.

 

So am I. I think by this point we can all agree he has not pitched well enough so far. I keep hoping he strings together a nice run and look at his outliers and think he will. But then I look at last season and he really didn't. He was good but not great.

Yea, i just looked at his game log from last season and surprisingly in 33 starts, he only had one start where he went at least seven innings and gave up no runs. Besides April where he had a 2.56 ERA/1.11WHIP, he didn't have any stretches where his numbers were special/dominant like most aces generally have.

 

Watching him pitch this year has been bizarre to me, i can't recall anything like it with another Brewers starting pitcher. The high strikeout/low walk numbers in most of his starts, yet way to many lapses where he leaves pitches right over the heart of the plate that then get hit hard, especially with RISP. Plus, maybe it's just me noticing this and i could be seeing something that isn't there, but even with his fabulous 80 K's in only 60 innings, it's seemed like in multiple starts that he gotten really hurt in situations where he had a batter/batters with 2 strikes and Zack just couldn't put the guy away because of multiple foul balls or tips. Then finally he leaves a pitch to far over the plate instead of a walk that the batter in turns hits a bullet somewhere. Just puzzling overall to watch a pitcher with such amazing K/9 and K/BB ratios that at the same time looks so non-dominant.

[zzzmanwitz]

Looks like FanGraphs wants to help us out...

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/...inke-cant-catch-a-break/

[fondybrewfan]

I wonder, even if we wanted to, if we could trade ZG this offseason and still get a decent return back. That would obviously free up some payroll to add some other pieces.

 

I still think he can turn it around; but I feel it would make more sense to extend Marcum long term than Grienke. Marcum has been extremely consistent; Grienke obviously hasn't. But we also haven't seen Cy Grienke; if he even exists anymore

[monty57]

If we only care about how Greinke has performed so far this year, relative to the rest of the Brewer's current starting rotation, sure. I personally care more about what to expect for the rest of the year.

 

I care about how he has pitched and I care about how he will pitch. I care about relative value, but generally only if someone should be replaced, and Greinke isn't in that category. If we had numerous stud pitchers in AAA banging on the door, then we'd need to attempt to determine Greinke's value in rotation vs. trading him and inserting stud prospect. Right now, there is no replacement for any of our SP, so I don't care how he's pitched relative to Yo, Marcum, Wolf and Narveson... I just care how he is helping the team, and how he may help the team in the future.

 

I guess some could lament the relative value of what we traded to get him, but I try to stay away from fretting over past decisions. There's too much uncertainty. For example, maybe if we didn't trade for Greinke, St Louis would have, and his presence was the reason we didn't make the playoffs. Sometimes it's fun to speculate, but as a general rule, it's probably better to look at what actually did happen rather than trying to determine what could have happened if some relevant fact were changed.

[TooLiveBrew]

I still think he can turn it around; but I feel it would make more sense to extend Marcum long term than Grienke. Marcum has been extremely consistent; Grienke obviously hasn't.

 

Are you basing who should be extended on half of a season? Greinke's younger, has far better stuff, hasn't had TJ surgery, & just won't continue to get this bad of results. He had a bad start against the best offense in baseball, there's really nothing more to it than that.

 

6 of his 11 starts have been up to expectations. Like the FanGraphs article says, "Step off the ledge, Brewers fans; everything is going to be alright."

[fondybrewfan]

Since when can 6 of 11 good outings be interpreted as a good thing? He has given up four or more runs in 5 of his 11 starts. He has gone 5.1 or less innings in 4 of his 11 starts

 

About 7 starts I ago I agreed with with the general consensus that Grienke was just perhaps getting a little unlucky. 1.5 months later and the game crap is still happening.

 

His stuff just doesn't look that good; he can't locate at all and when you can't locate it doesn't matter how good your breaking stuff is. He has given up a ton of meatballs. He has shown nothing this year that leads me to believe he will ever get close to 2009 again.

 

I'll gladly eat my hat if he turns it around and carries us into the playoffs; but he hasn't instilled a whole lot of confidence in me other than 2-3 starts.

[JohnBriggs12]

"His stuff just doesn't look that good".

 

When Gallardo is on, his stuff looks electric. I agree with fondybrewerfan, we just haven't seen that from Greinke. Yeah he gets his K's but he also gets way too many pitches squared up.

[TooLiveBrew]

When Gallardo is on, his stuff looks electric. I agree with fondybrewerfan, we just haven't seen that from Greinke. Yeah he gets his K's but he also gets way too many pitches squared up.

 

Except for the stretch where Gallardo struggled and a sky is falling thread was started for him, too.

 

 

Since when can 6 of 11 good outings be interpreted as a good thing?

 

My main point is that it's a small sample that people are getting worked up about. His cumulative ERA over the past three seasons is 3.24. If anyone really believes that Greinke has suddenly forgotten how to pitch well, I really don't know what to say.

 

Gallardo, by the way, has had 10 good starts & 7 bad starts... 59% good. Greinke is at 55% good starts so far, & hasn't gone on a great run yet like Yo did in starts 8-13. ZG will, and he will pitch like he has over his career, not like a 5.00+ ERA pitcher

 

 

His stuff just doesn't look that good; he can't locate at all and when

you can't locate it doesn't matter how good your breaking stuff is.

 

This comment is just complete cherry-picking from his bad starts. He's shown fantastic command in multiple appearances this season. I can agree his results haven't been good so far, but people need to just relax.

[DuWayne Steurer]

People aren't going to relax when Greinke's *results* look like garbage, and the team's fighting for a playoff spot for the 2nd time in 4 years.

[zzzmanwitz]

The Brewers are 8-3 in his starts. Aren't those really the only results that matter when we are worried about making the playoffs? If you are going to cherry pick his ERA, I'm going to look at everything except ERA and look at him as a pretty darn good pitcher this year.

[Thurston Fluff]

Greinke's younger, has far better stuff, hasn't had TJ surgery, & just won't continue to get this bad of results. He had a bad start against the best offense in baseball, there's really nothing more to it than that.

 

Marcum has a lower career ERA, WHIP and BAA than Greinke. I know it doesn't tell you everything but at this point it's pretty obvious nothing does. Over an entire career I think those three are fair enough a measurement even if a single season or two are not. If you want to go with other measures go ahead. I'll settle for the guy who gives up the fewest runs, hits/walks over a long period of time than someone who is great in other categories.

As far as the TJ surgery one surgery doesn't mean he is more likely to have another than Greinke does his first. Greinke throws a slider which is known to be hard on the elbow so he would probably be more likely. While Greinke did have a bad start against one of the best teams in baseball Marcum faced the very same team the next day with better results. But you are right one bad start does not mean anything. When compiled with the rest of the evidence that also suggest Marcum may be better though it seems to fit in.

 

This made me laugh from the fangrahs article.

 

Though it doesn’t show on the surface, Zack Greinke is experiencing one of the best seasons of his career.

Umm no he isn't having the best season of his career. At least now I see fully why so many people keep saying such things. Some of the best, most analytical sites we have do. The only reason fangraphs thinks so is because they are measuring success in a way that has nothing to do with actual success. It has a lot to do with predicting future success but they seem to equate the two as the same. They are not the same thus cannot be measured the same. It appears to me to be institutionalized thinking the the likelihood of future success has now become the acceptable measurements of past success. I'm sorry to keep repeating this stuff but it really does seem to be permeating many people's thinking. We really need to separate our measuring devices to their proper use.

[zzzmanwitz]

I think the problem is that you keep going back to the well saying that he is giving up a lot of runs. You are correct, there is no argument against that. I think we all agree with the fact that he has given up runs. Those of us opposing your view point are saying that even though he has given up runs, we aren't panicking about what to expect over the rest of the year because his past success and his peripheral numbers lead us to believe that he will eventually turn his solid pitching into solid results.

[DuWayne Steurer]

The Brewers are 8-3 in his starts. Aren't those really the only results that matter when we are worried about making the playoffs? If you are going to cherry pick his ERA, I'm going to look at everything except ERA and look at him as a pretty darn good pitcher this year.

The Brewers went 18-16 in a season in games that Wayne Franklin started. I'm not even saying Greinke's pitched poorly. I'm saying that his results are not what people expected when the Brewers sold the farm AND took on the worst starting position player in baseball to get him.

 

Normally, I'd suspect people to not be as reactionary, but this is a 'go for it' year, and people are going to live and die with every good and bad pitch.

[M Skjellyfetti]

To piggyback off of what zzzmanwitz said, yes, FIP,WAR, etc. do a very good job of telling us what to expect going forward. However, the other function of these stats is that they do a good job of isolating events on the baseball field and telling us how well a pitcher performed on the stuff he could control. Greinke has done well for the most part on the stuff he can control (K's, BBs). His LD% is higher than usual, and he has given up quite a few HR/FB. So while he hasn't been perfect with what he controls, Greinke has done pretty well overall. The stuff that he doesn't control (LOB%, BABIP) have been unsustainably below average, causing his ERA and "results" to appear poor. However, this doesn't mean that Greinke has been pitching poorly. It means that he has been pitching well in general, but he has run into bad luck, defense, etc.

[TheCrew07]

Once again, how are the runs he's given up outside of his control? I can think of 3 earned runs that were on the defense so far this season, and 2 were the other night. That's the assumption of FIP... it's just a guess, an opinion, a hypothesis... it's not a fact. None of those metrics (which are just theories) can be proven in any way, yet they are treated as facts. The tale of Grienke is in his splits, not in FIP, or LOB%, BABIP, or anything else. He's given up runs in bunches for 9 months now (all of last year and this year). He's not unlucky, he's made bad pitches with runners in scoring position. There's no excusing away his splits or his SLG/OPS against, there's no luck in there, his gamelogs just don't bear that out at all.

 

Greinke will improve because his talent is that good, he'll have to start locating effectively for an extended period of time at some point, not because he's been unlucky and his luck is neutralizing, but because all players make adjustments if they are going to have success. Look at his game logs last year and then make the claim he's been unlucky, or look at his game logs this year and claim he's been unlucky. The use of "luck" as a legitimate reason for success or failure is incredibly lazy analysis in my opinion. The answers to why, the cause, are in the game itself, in how the game is played, and not in any metric... especially when it comes to pitching.

 

Greinke just hasn't pitched to his talent outside of 1 start this season, and outside of 2009 he hasn't done it consistently in his career. He's a much better player than how he's pitched, but his ERA is much more reflective of how he's actually pitched than his FIP or xFIP at this time, in fact it's not even close... and the difference highlight's the problems inherernt in most of the advanced metrics. Zack is very good, but he's not on the same level as Sabathia, Halladay, or Lincecum, the results over his 8 year career just don't measure up to those guys yet fans keep treating him like he is.

[Funketown]

It makes more sense to look at Greinke in the past four years rather than the past 8 years; recall that he he pitched only 6 major league innings in 2006 and spent much of his season in the bullpen in 2007. From 2008-2011, Greinke has posted a 3.45 ERA; not on the level of Sabathia (3.10), Halladay (2.63), or Lincecum (2.86). I think using xFIP or FIP would draw Greinke closer (I'm too lazy to do that), but I agree that he is a very good pitcher who is not quite on the level of those guys, even if he is close.

 

"The use of "luck" as a legitimate reason for success or failure is incredibly lazy analysis in my opinion"

 

In many cases I agree, but often the reason that people conclude a player is unlucky is due to their inability to find any perceptible difference in how the player is pitching. For example, we keep hearing that Greinke is leaving balls over the plate, etc., but as And That posted quite some time ago, that does not appear to be the case. It is not necessary that results like this are simply due in large part to luck, but it is certainly a reasonable possibility.

 

Remember that a great pitch can be knocked over the fence four a 3 run homer and a terrible pitch can be grounded weakly back to the mound; the result of a pitch does not determine the quality of the pitch, although that is an extremely hard distinction to make. My gut is telling me that Greinke must be getting the plate or missing spots in key situations, but I just haven't seen anything to confirm (or deny) that feeling.

 

Ultimately I think the truth lies somewhere between both camps; I certainly don't think Greinke has been 5.7 ERA bad, but I also don't think he's having a good season, as the fangraphs writer suggested. I think we can all agree that he should get better results from here on out, although it may not seem that way at times.

[TooLiveBrew]

Remember that a great pitch can be knocked over the fence four a 3 run homer and a terrible pitch can be grounded weakly back to the mound; the result of a pitch does not determine the quality of the pitch, although that is an extremely hard distinction to make. My gut is telling me that Greinke must be getting the plate or missing spots in key situations, but I just haven't seen anything to confirm (or deny) that feeling.

 

Ultimately I think the truth lies somewhere between both camps; I certainly don't think Greinke has been 5.7 ERA bad, but I also don't think he's having a good season, as the fangraphs writer suggested. I think we can all agree that he should get better results from here on out, although it may not seem that way at times.

 

Any time this thread gets bumped in the future, this segment of your post should just be required to be re-posted.

[Thurston Fluff]

the other function of these stats is that they do a good job of isolating events on the baseball field and telling us how well a pitcher performed on the stuff he could control. Greinke has done well for the most part on the stuff he can control (K's, BBs).

 

Just because he can't control his fielders doesn't mean every pitch put in play was completely out of his control. I get why using FIP is valuable when comparing two pitchers on different teams. It is the best available stat that eliminates variables outside of the pitcher's control. That doesn't mean it's better than other stats if those variables are equaled out.

By and large with FIP a weak grounder and a screaming line drive are the same. Given many plays are fielding dependent if you can use a stat that equals out the defense then it should be more accurate than FIP which leaves out a quite a bit of information. I think having the same defense should equal out the defensive discrepancies nicely. ERA when pitchers have the same defense seems to me to be better than FIP.

The upshot of that is Greinke has the same danged defense behind him as every other pitcher on this team. Yet with his defense being equal to the other pitchers he has not had nearly as good of results as they have.

[M Skjellyfetti]

The upshot of that is Greinke has the same danged defense behind him as every other pitcher on this team. Yet with his defense being equal to the other pitchers he has not had nearly as good of results as they have.

 

That makes some sense in theory. However, it neglects two pieces of information.

1) LOB%. Unless you believe that Greinke becomes a totally different pitcher when runners are on base (and has forgotten how to pitch with runners on base this year), his LOB% simply cannot be explained by anything other than bad luck. I'm not saying bad luck in that he's giving up weak base hits. I'm saying it's bad luck that the hits that he has given up have been bunched together so much. Over a longer period of time, we can only expect more runners to be left on base, bringing Zack's ERA down. He's been unlucky so far with this, causing a higher ERA that doesn't truly represent his pitching performance.

2) Sample size. Since it generally takes 3 years of data to get a good read on a defender's ability on defense, I highly doubt we can reasonably expect the same defense to put up the same or even similar statistics behind two different pitchers over half a season's worth of starts. I'd imagine if the defensive performance behind every Brewer starter this year was measured and compared, there would be some pretty wild discrepancies.

[Thurston Fluff]

1) LOB%. Unless you believe that Greinke becomes a totally different pitcher when runners are on base (and has forgotten how to pitch with runners on base this year), his LOB% simply cannot be explained by anything other than bad luck.

 

Go back and look at the fangraphs article posted in this tread. His LOB can be explained by his line drive rate being higher. That is not luck.

 

2) Sample size. Since it generally takes 3 years of data to get a good read on a defender's ability on defense, I highly doubt we can reasonably expect the same defense to put up the same or even similar statistics behind two different pitchers over half a season's worth of starts. I'd imagine if the defensive performance behind every Brewer starter this year was measured and compared, there would be some pretty wild discrepancies.

 

To tell how good a guy is compared to others may take three years. To compare how good he is against himself takes no time at all.