Greinke: someone talk me off the ledge

[ilovebeer]

I don't buy that Grienke is is late April or early May mode anymore. For what we gave up to get him he had been a big disapointment, but i hope he can work things out.He is better than anything we had last season.

[RockCoCougars]

In my opinion, Marcum isn't as good as he's been pitching, so I'm expecting him to regress- not much, but a tad- after he's been around the league once. On the other hand, I think Greinke is better than the results he's been getting so I expect him to improve. He has made a lot of guys look foolish up there this year, but he's also paid dearly for some bad pitches.

[monty57]

Sometimes I think baseball stats are going the way of economics. My retired farmer/ship yard working father with nothing more than a highschool education and common sense saw the housing crash coming when MIT grads with all kinds of number crunching capabilities didn't.

I'm sorry, but this is just silly. People predict epic recessions/the end of America all the time, and the bottom line is that they are largely unpredictable by any means. If this is your opinion of economics you have little understanding of the field. That is an extremely ignorant statement.

This from Kenneth Dam, Professor Emeritus at University of Chicago, and one of the world's foremost experts on law & economics: "I increasingly have the feeling that the legal people are closer to daily reality than the economists. The mathematization of economics is too often an excuse to write papers and dissertations just to repeat the obvious."

 

There's probably some truth to that statement when applied to baseball analysis as well.

[Funketown]

This from Kenneth Dam, Professor Emeritus at University of Chicago, and one of the world's foremost experts on law & economics: "I increasingly have the feeling that the legal people are closer to daily reality than the economists. The mathematization of economics is too often an excuse to write papers and dissertations just to repeat the obvious."

This really isn't a good place for this, so I shouldn't have said anything. I'll just end this by saying Dam's statement has an element of truth, and I certainly respect his sentiment, but to dismiss economists as nonsensical due to the level of mathematics used in economics would be a big mistake.

[umphrey]

Can we stop putting so much stock into stats like K/9, BB/9, BABIP?

If a pitcher is throwing straight fast balls right down the middle,

- he will get some strike outs because even the best hitters will put that pitch in play at best half the time

- he won't walk many

- he will have a high BABIP that some people will call bad luck but it is just as likely that the pitcher is throwing pitches that are getting hit very hard

It's not like these are meaningless stats but please don't look at them like they directly translate to bad luck.

[ninja33]

Only 40.7% of Greinke's pitches have been in the strike zone this year, which is far and away a career low for him (51.4% on his career). His swinging strike % (i.e. percentage of strikes that were swings and misses) is at 12.1%, a career high (and near league high, up there with Cliff Lee and Marcum). That kind of goes against the school of thought that he's throwing too many meatballs and batters are squaring him up.

How do you explain his 26.6% LD%? That would indicate that he is in fact throwing too many meatballs and the batters are squaring him up.

I can't explain it, which is why the end of my post (which you didn't include) mentioned how those stats confused me. Yes, if a pitcher has a high line drive rate it would make sense that he is throwing too many meatballs and batters are squaring him up. But looking at Greinke's stats, he's throwing far fewer pitches in the strike zone than he ever has and is missing more bats than he ever has. Therefore, I'm confused. I'm on the optimistic side of this, I think 50 IP is way too small of a sample and his peripherals (outside of LD%) are great....I think he's going to get there. I understand why people are worried...but it's either think Greinke isn't as good as advertised/expected or that he's been a victim of bad luck. No one seems to be convincing the other side, seems like one of those situations where it's best to agree to disagree.

[And That]

Greinke's 4-seam fastball heat map from '09-'11. You tell me if you see a difference.

 

(This is the view from behind home, so the right-handed batter stands on the left, left-handed batter on the right. Strike zone is the box. All found at FanGraphs here.)

 

First v RHB:

 

http://images.yuku.com/image/jpeg/cfe1554c95da9c27369d613c5f3535c0294b2bc.jpg http://images.yuku.com/image/jpeg/de835767463c97ffdbf0977226299396c6c4f3d.jpg http://images.yuku.com/image/jpeg/2aa25634cd9d3d269e82e8dd0eb0fc38ee09ee3.jpg

 

Then v LHB:

 

http://images.yuku.com/image/jpeg/18425824b7940d509c329143e8b0f20cbca2109.jpg http://images.yuku.com/image/jpeg/f07357a441ae92ded37795a92c53f3b4a27d099.jpg http://images.yuku.com/image/jpeg/d1a15e4296de9823f1ed87da8a4cdfd76d88014.jpg

 

I'm not seeing anything obvious here that would tell me his location is significantly different from the past two years, or that he seems to be grooving more fastballs. Could have to do with movement...

[rluzinski]

Can we stop putting so much stock into stats like K/9, BB/9, BABIP?

If a pitcher is throwing straight fast balls right down the middle,

- he will get some strike outs because even the best hitters will put that pitch in play at best half the time

- he won't walk many

- he will have a high BABIP that some people will call bad luck but it is just as likely that the pitcher is throwing pitches that are getting hit very hard

It's not like these are meaningless stats but please don't look at them like they directly translate to bad luck.

Nothing translates directly to anything. We have little pieces of evidence that we can assemble in different ways to come up with theories. The data we have, the stronger our evidence is. With 50+ IP, we don't have much. Probably some combination of bad luck and bad performance but how much of each is impossible to know.

[And That]

...speaking of movement, here's the movement on Greinke's 4-seamer (and his other pitches... the green one is the 4-seam fastball, again from FanGraphs) from '09-'11, in order.

 

http://images.yuku.com/image/jpeg/92e251c43f936def9982340fa059a27d9e46432.jpg http://images.yuku.com/image/jpeg/00725344389d9d119c62140a3b2f68e90ca6e7b.jpg http://images.yuku.com/image/jpeg/5ba3566841e69c7ad8b997412e0055f5ab91670.jpg

 

You tell me.

 

Just for reference... FA=4-seam, CU=curve, SL=slider, CH=change-up, FC=cutter, FT=2-seam

[monty57]

This from Kenneth Dam, Professor Emeritus at University of Chicago, and one of the world's foremost experts on law & economics: "I increasingly have the feeling that the legal people are closer to daily reality than the economists. The mathematization of economics is too often an excuse to write papers and dissertations just to repeat the obvious."

This really isn't a good place for this, so I shouldn't have said anything. I'll just end this by saying Dam's statement has an element of truth, and I certainly respect his sentiment, but to dismiss economists as nonsensical due to the level of mathematics used in economics would be a big mistake.

Yes it would. I just thought the correlation made sense, and the quote fit. Just like economics changed from more simple ceteris paribus models to econometric models, baseball has moved from more simple analytical tools to more advanced statistical tools. However, complex tools could cause some to overlook (or disregard) a simple answer. House prices can't increase 50%/year indefinitely, and getting behind in the count can cause you to groove fastballs. Maybe it's as simple as that or maybe not. I don't know what Greinke's problem is, or if there even is a problem. But it is possible that he could continue to get shelled while still striking people out.

 

 

[And That]

But it is possible that he could continue to get shelled while still striking people out.

It's possible, but quite unlikely.

 

I was going to compare his strikeout rate with previous pitchers who finished the season with his 11.8 K/9, but starting pitchers rarely strike out that many guys. The last qualifying starting pitcher with even an 11.0 K/9 was Kerry Wood in 2003 (11.35). The last guy to eclipse 11.8 over a full season was Randy Johnson in 2001, with a 13.41 K/9.

 

So instead of looking at trying to find a number of direct comparisons with Greinke, let's look at MLB qualifying starting pitchers who finished in the top 5 in K/9 the last five years, along with their ERAs.

 

2010
Tim Lincecum: 9.79 K/9, 3.43 ERA

Jon Lester: 9.74 K/9, 3.25 ERA

Yovani Gallardo: 9.73 K/9, 3.84 ERA

Jonathan Sanchez: 9.54 K/9, 3.07 ERA

Francisco Liriano: 9.44 K/9, 3.62 ERA

 

2009
Tim Lincecum: 10.42 K/9, 2.48 ERA

Justin Verlander: 10.09 K/9, 3.45 ERA

Jon Lester: 9.96 K/9, 3.41 ERA

Yovani Gallardo: 9.89 K/9, 3.73 ERA

Javier Vasquez: 9.77 K/9, 2.87 ERA

 

2008
Tim Lincecum: 10.51 K/9, 2.62 ERA

Edinson Volquez: 9.46 K/9, 3.21 ERA

A.J. Burnett: 9.39 K/9, 4.07 ERA

Chad Billingsley: 9.01 K/9, 3.14 ERA

CC Sabathia: 8.93 K/9, 2.70 ERA

 

2007
Erik Bedard: 10.93 K/9, 3.16 ERA

Scott Kazmir: 10.41 K/9, 3.48 ERA

Jake Peavy: 9.67 K/9, 2.54 ERA

Johan Santana: 9.66 K/9, 3.33 ERA

A.J. Burnett: 9.56 K/9, 3.75 ERA

 

2006
Jake Peavy: 9.56 K/9, 4.09 ERA

Johan Santana: 9.44 K/9, 2.77 ERA

Orlando Hernandez: 9.09 K/9, 4.66 ERA

Carlos Zambrano: 8.83 K/9, 3.41 ERA

Brett Myers: 8.59 K/9, 3.91 ERA

 

That's a mean 3.36 ERA, midpoint 3.41 ERA, min 2.48, max 4.66.

 

If Greinke finishes in the top 5 in K/9 (i.e., he keeps "striking people out" at around or at a slightly lesser clip than he is now), it would seem quite likely that his ERA would drop. How much? I dunno.

 

ZiPS has Greinke finishing with 167.2 IP, by the way. You need 162 IP to qualify for the above lists.

[monty57]

Yeah, 11.81 K/9 is ridiculous. I think an important point was Russ' response to ninja's post. It's a guess, but if Greinke's only throwing 40% of his pitches for strikes, but he's not walking people and he's getting a lot of strikeouts, than it would seem that he is falling behind a lot of batters. Batters have access to all the stats we do, so they know that when Greinke gets behind in the count, he throws strikes. Therefore they tee up and swing as hard as they can (13.5% HR rate) but swing and miss a lot. With his stuff and his ability to throw strikes with any of his pitches, he can get batters out even when they know a strike is coming, but if they guess right and get a fastball down the heart of the plate or a hanging curve they can hit it hard.

 

His numbers this year seem very extreme (11.81 K/9, 1.91 BB/9, 13.5% HR/FB, 56.9% LOB, 5.23 ERA) so something's got to give. I agree that it appears he's pitching pretty well, but maybe the X-factor is simply that he's getting behind too many batters and he's unwilling to walk anyone. I kind of think Greinke may have the opposite mentality of someone like Doug Davis. We always heard that Davis "wouldn't give in to batters." He'd rather walk someone than throw a pitch down the middle of the plate. Greinke has much better stuff than Davis, so maybe he "gives in" and throws the ball down the center of the plate, knowing that there's a good chance the batter will still strike out. No one's stuff is good enough that they can continually throw pitches down the center of the plate when the batter is expecting it and get away with it all the time, so this could lead to some rather extreme numbers.

[Raw Biz]

Yeah, 11.81 K/9 is ridiculous. I think an important point was Russ' response to ninja's post. It's a guess, but if Greinke's only throwing 40% of his pitches for strikes, but he's not walking people and he's getting a lot of strikeouts, than it would seem that he is falling behind a lot of batters. Batters have access to all the stats we do, so they know that when Greinke gets behind in the count, he throws strikes. Therefore they tee up and swing as hard as they can (13.5% HR rate) but swing and miss a lot. With his stuff and his ability to throw strikes with any of his pitches, he can get batters out even when they know a strike is coming, but if they guess right and get a fastball down the heart of the plate or a hanging curve they can hit it hard.

 

His numbers this year seem very extreme (11.81 K/9, 1.91 BB/9, 13.5% HR/FB, 56.9% LOB, 5.23 ERA) so something's got to give. I agree that it appears he's pitching pretty well, but maybe the X-factor is simply that he's getting behind too many batters and he's unwilling to walk anyone. I kind of think Greinke may have the opposite mentality of someone like Doug Davis. We always heard that Davis "wouldn't give in to batters." He'd rather walk someone than throw a pitch down the middle of the plate. Greinke has much better stuff than Davis, so maybe he "gives in" and throws the ball down the center of the plate, knowing that there's a good chance the batter will still strike out. No one's stuff is good enough that they can continually throw pitches down the center of the plate when the batter is expecting it and get away with it all the time, so this could lead to some rather extreme numbers.

I think this hits the nail on the head. Going off the location/movement data, it doesn't look like he's throwing any more pitches over the plate than usual. It's just that the strikes he does throw are hit hard. So he's probably getting behind a lot of batters and then just throwing strikes. His stuff is good enough to strike guys out but if they're looking for a certain pitch, it can be hit hard.

[Baldkin]

Yeah, 11.81 K/9 is ridiculous. I think an important point was Russ' response to ninja's post. It's a guess, but if Greinke's only throwing 40% of his pitches for strikes, but he's not walking people and he's getting a lot of strikeouts, than it would seem that he is falling behind a lot of batters. Batters have access to all the stats we do, so they know that when Greinke gets behind in the count, he throws strikes. Therefore they tee up and swing as hard as they can (13.5% HR rate) but swing and miss a lot. With his stuff and his ability to throw strikes with any of his pitches, he can get batters out even when they know a strike is coming, but if they guess right and get a fastball down the heart of the plate or a hanging curve they can hit it hard.

 

His numbers this year seem very extreme (11.81 K/9, 1.91 BB/9, 13.5% HR/FB, 56.9% LOB, 5.23 ERA) so something's got to give. I agree that it appears he's pitching pretty well, but maybe the X-factor is simply that he's getting behind too many batters and he's unwilling to walk anyone. I kind of think Greinke may have the opposite mentality of someone like Doug Davis. We always heard that Davis "wouldn't give in to batters." He'd rather walk someone than throw a pitch down the middle of the plate. Greinke has much better stuff than Davis, so maybe he "gives in" and throws the ball down the center of the plate, knowing that there's a good chance the batter will still strike out. No one's stuff is good enough that they can continually throw pitches down the center of the plate when the batter is expecting it and get away with it all the time, so this could lead to some rather extreme numbers.

I think this hits the nail on the head. Going off the location/movement data, it doesn't look like he's throwing any more pitches over the plate than usual. It's just that the strikes he does throw are hit hard. So he's probably getting behind a lot of batters and then just throwing strikes. His stuff is good enough to strike guys out but if they're looking for a certain pitch, it can be hit hard.

Except, he really hasn't been falling behind a lot of guys. The biggest issue is his babip against with RISP is .484. That is ridiculous. Guys wouldn't even do that in BP.

[Thurston Fluff]

Nothing translates directly to anything. We have little pieces of evidence that we can assemble in different ways to come up with theories. The data we have, the stronger our evidence is. With 50+ IP, we don't have much. Probably some combination of bad luck and bad performance but how much of each is impossible to know.

 

I think a homerun translates to either a poor pitch or good hit. Unless the pitcher or hitter closes their eyes and throws/swings it seems to me there is a skill, or lack thereof, that should be attributed to it instead of luck. I guess it could be considered luck that the pitcher faced someone superior to him but that is kind of odd. I get your overall point though. That it is difficult to quantify small numbers in a meaningful way. That is more or less why I don't know if using them are useful to understand why Greinke isn't getting the results we want. I don't agree he is pitching well though. He's been ok but he hasn't been great. Since he is a great pitcher I don't know how he can be considered to be pitching to his level of ability simply because he has good stats in a couple areas.

 

However, complex tools could cause some to overlook (or disregard) a simple answer. House prices can't increase 50%/year indefinitely, and getting behind in the count can cause you to groove fastballs. Maybe it's as simple as that or maybe not.

 

Much clearer than I put it. Thanks.

 

I'm sorry, but this is just silly. People predict epic recessions/the end of America all the time, and the bottom line is that they are largely unpredictable by any means. If this is your opinion of economics you have little understanding of the field. That is an extremely ignorant statement.

 

If you're going to insult someone please at least understand what they are saying. If you wish to discuss this go to the political scene website. I will be happy to discuss my full ignorance with you.

[Raw Biz]

Yeah, 11.81 K/9 is ridiculous. I think an important point was Russ' response to ninja's post. It's a guess, but if Greinke's only throwing 40% of his pitches for strikes, but he's not walking people and he's getting a lot of strikeouts, than it would seem that he is falling behind a lot of batters. Batters have access to all the stats we do, so they know that when Greinke gets behind in the count, he throws strikes. Therefore they tee up and swing as hard as they can (13.5% HR rate) but swing and miss a lot. With his stuff and his ability to throw strikes with any of his pitches, he can get batters out even when they know a strike is coming, but if they guess right and get a fastball down the heart of the plate or a hanging curve they can hit it hard.

 

His numbers this year seem very extreme (11.81 K/9, 1.91 BB/9, 13.5% HR/FB, 56.9% LOB, 5.23 ERA) so something's got to give. I agree that it appears he's pitching pretty well, but maybe the X-factor is simply that he's getting behind too many batters and he's unwilling to walk anyone. I kind of think Greinke may have the opposite mentality of someone like Doug Davis. We always heard that Davis "wouldn't give in to batters." He'd rather walk someone than throw a pitch down the middle of the plate. Greinke has much better stuff than Davis, so maybe he "gives in" and throws the ball down the center of the plate, knowing that there's a good chance the batter will still strike out. No one's stuff is good enough that they can continually throw pitches down the center of the plate when the batter is expecting it and get away with it all the time, so this could lead to some rather extreme numbers.

I think this hits the nail on the head. Going off the location/movement data, it doesn't look like he's throwing any more pitches over the plate than usual. It's just that the strikes he does throw are hit hard. So he's probably getting behind a lot of batters and then just throwing strikes. His stuff is good enough to strike guys out but if they're looking for a certain pitch, it can be hit hard.

Except, he really hasn't been falling behind a lot of guys. The biggest issue is his babip against with RISP is .484. That is ridiculous. Guys wouldn't even do that in BP.

Doesn't that have to do with the fact that most of the balls (or at least it seems) hit off of him are hit hard, which might suggest he's getting a lot of the plate with his pitches and guys are just waiting to tee off? I'm not sure, I'm just wondering. I'm sure a lot of it is bad luck but I would think a BABIP would be higher than average if guys can just wait for a pitch and tee off.

[1992casey]

As kind of an aside, K/AB or BB/AB would be a better measure than K/9 innings or BB/9 innings. Pitchers who face more batters over a nine inning span (i.e. poorer pitchers) will have "inflated" K/9 inning numbers when compared to superior ones simply because they've had more chances to strike batters out.

 

That said, K/AB and BB/AB don't seem to be made very convenient, and they're going to produce numbers that the reader would have to get used to recognizing.

[ninja33]

Except, he really hasn't been falling behind a lot of guys. The biggest issue is his babip against with RISP is .484. That is ridiculous. Guys wouldn't even do that in BP.

Doesn't that have to do with the fact that most of the balls (or at least it seems) hit off of him are hit hard, which might suggest he's getting a lot of the plate with his pitches and guys are just waiting to tee off? I'm not sure, I'm just wondering. I'm sure a lot of it is bad luck but I would think a BABIP would be higher than average if guys can just wait for a pitch and tee off.

.484 is just ridiculous though. Only 2 other guys in the league are above .450, and then Cliff Lee is at .429. BABIP isn't a stat that can explain everything, and it can be overused to dismiss results, but I think in an extreme case like this it does show something.

Also, for what it's worth three of Greinke's worst starts this year have come with Nieves (Atlanta), Rivera (Colorado), and Kottaras (Cubs). In his six starts with Lucroy his ERA is at a solid (still not great or what I would expect from him ) 4.03. Normally I think the pitcher/catcher relationship can be a little overblown....but maybe in the case of a guy like Greinke who has had anxiety issues in the past it can matter a little bit. Maybe he got a little worked up after that passed ball by Kottaras in the Cubs game. I'm probably looking into it a little bit too much trying to find an answer, but maybe there's something there.

 

[Funketown]

Backupcatchers]If you're going to insult someone please at least understand what they are saying. If you wish to discuss this go to the political scene website. I will be happy to discuss my full ignorance with you.

My apology, Backupcatchers. My statement was overly harsh.

[jeffy]

As kind of an aside, K/AB or BB/AB would be a better measure...

 

K/PA would be even better, I think.

 

Greinke has 53.1 innings, so that's 160 outs add 9 walks and 57 hits and he has faced pretty close to 226 batters, striking out 70, so 31% of batters faced have struck out. Doing the same calculation, his career figure is about 20% and in his Cy Young season (2009) rate was 26%.

[Oxy]

As kind of an aside, K/AB or BB/AB would be a better measure than K/9 innings or BB/9 innings. Pitchers who face more batters over a nine inning span (i.e. poorer pitchers) will have "inflated" K/9 inning numbers when compared to superior ones simply because they've had more chances to strike batters out.

 

That said, K/AB and BB/AB don't seem to be made very convenient, and they're going to produce numbers that the reader would have to get used to recognizing.

??? The point of using K/BB or K/9 innings is that it takes defense and a lot of luck out of the equation. Using ABs would thus be more innaccurate. Plus, unless I am misunderstanding your comment, every pitcher gets the same number of outs to work with so it's impossible to artificially inflate those numbers. Basically, what is important is what percentage of a pitchers outs come by the strikeout?

 

Unless you are trying to measure something different than what I am assuming (pure pitcher performance)

[Funketown]

??? The point of using K/BB or K/9 innings is that it takes defense and a lot of luck out of the equation. Using ABs would thus be more innaccurate. Plus, unless I am misunderstanding your comment, every pitcher gets the same number of outs to work with so it's impossible to artificially inflate those numbers. Basically, what is important is what percentage of a pitchers outs come by the strikeout?

An artificially high BABIP will inflate both K/9 and BB/9 numbers, however it would not have any affect on the proposed K/PA and BB/PA numbers. If a ball in play is made into an out, that's an out that can no longer be made via strikeout. If this ball in play, however, is not made into an out, the pitcher will have another opportunity to record a K.

 

Not a big difference either way though.

 

Edit: Just imagine a defense so bad that it literally never makes an out on a ball in play. In this case, the only way to make outs for a pitcher would be via the K, so if BABIP = 1.000 (assuming no CS, pickoffs, etc), K/9 would have to be 27.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think Greinke is going to go on a ridiculously long run of good starts, personally. I don't know if it's going to happen before or after the ASB, but he's just pitched so incredibly well, peripherally, that I think it's bound to happen. Counting stats at this point in the season can be doubled for conservative 'projections', but admittedly it's very unscientific. Greinke's projected to finish with 167.2 IP, which means the rate he's whiffed batters thus far is equivalent to 220 over that many innings. Even though he probably won't finish with 200 IP this season, his current K rate would produce around 260 strikeouts. Said K rate is approximately what Pedro Martinez did in his unbelievable 2000 season. Greinke's BB rate is remarkably similar to Pedro's that year as well. I don't mean to say I expect that kind of season from Greinke, but his skillset at this point compares well to contemporary elite pitchers.

 

He's healthy, but physically & perhaps mentally he may still feel like he's just getting into the grind of a regular season. He's lined up to face Tampa Bay, the Yankees, the Twins, & then the Reds. That's not an easy stretch, so I'll guess post-ASB is when he really heats up. But at the same time it wouldn't surprise me to see Greinke fire on all cylinders next time out, or even against the Yanks. Whether or not anyone thinks luck has been a factor for Zack so far, clearly if he does get lucky in terms of results, he has the chance to go 7 or 8 strong innings any given night.

[pebadger]

Greinke's BABIP against of .500 in Chicago the other day had very little to do with bad luck and very much to do with guys just smoking the ball when they hit it.

[Oxy]

An artificially high BABIP will inflate both K/9 and BB/9 numbers, however it would not have any affect on the proposed K/PA and BB/PA numbers. If a ball in play is made into an out, that's an out that can no longer be made via strikeout. If this ball in play, however, is not made into an out, the pitcher will have another opportunity to record a K.

 

Not a big difference either way though.

 

Edit: Just imagine a defense so bad that it literally never makes an out on a ball in play. In this case, the only way to make outs for a pitcher would be via the K, so if BABIP = 1.000 (assuming no CS, pickoffs, etc), K/9 would have to be 27.

Ahh, I see now, thanks. I could see this as having relevance in predicting future success (or lack of success) if ALL of the Brewer pitchers have a high BABIP. If that is the case, then it can reasonably be assumed that his high K/9 innings will not necessarily translate to better raw results (ERA), as the defense behind him can at least partially be blamed for the poor results. If the rest of the staff has normal BABIP numbers, then it is more likely that Zack's lack of results is due to luck. The samples involved in this are probably too small to say anything important anyway barring a vast difference between the two, which I doubt.

 

My opinion is that he has both been a bit unlucky and that he is throwing too many meatballs.