Greinke: someone talk me off the ledge

[TooLiveBrew]

Yeah, pitchers don't pitch at a 3.00 ERA or whatever it is you want all season. It's the way a 162-game season goes. 5 of his first 9 starts are about what should have been expected, performance-wise. Prior to this most recent, wind-blowing-out-at-Wrigley start where the other (good) SP also gave up a lot of runs, his past 4 starts netted cumulative rates of:

 

3.33 ERA

10.33 K/9

1.66 BB/9

31/5 K/BB

 

 

That's just damn good pitching, & this hub-bub is basically people overreacting to his most recent start not going well. Naturally there was no 'Greinke is a disappointment' thread during the stretch of his previous 4 starts. And once he goes out & pitches well again, this will subside. Look for this thread to get bumped just about every time he has a bad outing, though, because apparently Greinke is different from other top SP in baseball, & he's not allowed to have a bad game... ever. And like I said earlier, there won't be a thread like this on Marcum when he inevitably cools off, because he'll have built up a large enough sample in his season ERA to hide it.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Yeah, pitchers don't pitch at a 3.00 ERA or whatever it is you want all season. It's the way a 162-game season goes. 5 of his first 9 starts are about what should have been expected, performance-wise. Prior to this most recent, wind-blowing-out-at-Wrigley start where the other (good) SP also gave up a lot of runs, his past 4 starts netted cumulative rates of:

 

3.33 ERA

10.33 K/9

1.66 BB/9

31/5 K/BB

 

 

That's just damn good pitching, & this hub-bub is basically people overreacting to his most recent start not going well. Naturally there was no 'Greinke is a disappointment' thread during the stretch of his previous 4 starts. And once he goes out & pitches well again, this will subside. Look for this thread to get bumped just about every time he has a bad outing, though, because apparently Greinke is different from other top SP in baseball, & he's not allowed to have a bad game... ever. And like I said earlier, there won't be a thread like this on Marcum when he inevitably cools off, because he'll have built up a large enough sample in his season ERA to hide it.

Great point. Like I said earlier in this thread, Gallardo had a very bad stretch of starts earlier in the year. What happened? People freaked out, and were talking about fake DL'ing him and all that. What did he do? He turned it around, and is now having a great year, just like all great pitchers do. Bad stretches happen. Greinke will turn it around just like Gallardo did, and just like every good starting pitcher does.

[Ennder]

There may be two schools of thoughts here but nobody can disagree with the fact that we expected much more from the "ace" that we sold the farm for and that he has been far from the dominant pitcher we all thought we were getting.

He has done more or less exactly what I expected. He has a high total in one high random team stat (Wins) and a low total in a another highly random largely team stat (ERA) but neither of those are really useful for judging pitchers in a single season.

[umphrey]

The majority of those 9 starts would come in spring training, so comparing him to Marcum isn't really accurate. And coming off a lot of down time doesn't help either. I don't see how it doesn't come into the equation. I don't know how a pitcher that missed all of spring training and an entire month of the season is expected to come out in be in perfect form within his first 50 innings. Yes, he could be doing better, but this isn't enough to write him off on either.

Why do people keep posting this? Has everyone forgotten that he actually got 1 more minor league rehab start than he needed? He was fully stretched out when he came up to Milwaukee.

 

Once again there is a disconnect between certain metrics that are mostly based on peripherals and the actual results on the field. People are going to tell us he's unlucky because of his LOB% over his last 40 starts, throw out xFIP which is meaningless in this context, compare his rate stats to other true aces, and so on. The only problem is that he's continually pitched below his talent with the exception of his CY season.

 

All of the rate stats, metrics... all of that is true, Greinke does compare favorably to Sabathia and other top pitchers in every way but the actual result on the field. So why is that? Well if you dig a little deeper looking at his GSC, his game logs, and actually pay attention to how he pitches in the games then it's a not a mystery at all. It's not that he's unlucky, it's that he grooves way too many FBs. He get's away with a fair amount of them, in fact he keeps hitters off balance enough that they watch many go by without even taking a swing. However if a hitter is looking FB when he throws one... well you don't get to the majors if you can't consistently hit a thigh to belt high FB over the heart of the plate very hard. That's not Zach getting unlucky, that's Zach putting pitches in horrible location, regardless of the ultimate result, those are hitters pitchers.

 

Simply put he gives up more runs than he should because his FB location is sloppy at times. I took quite a bit of flak for point out how uneven he's been over his career and that overall I viewed him as more of a #2 than a #1, and still believe my assessment of him was on the money. People around here over valued him based on his talent and his 1 CY season, but over the entirety of his career he hasn't pitched as well as a Halladay or Sabathia, though that's what people thought we were getting. Apparently that's what Melvin thought too because we gave up an avalanche of talent to acquire him, we paid much more for Greinke than we did for Sabathia and we aren't going to get nearly the same result.

 

Zach will be unwordly for a couple of games, then he'll crash and post a sub 20 GSC... those extreme lows bring down his overall pitching line. All MLB pitchers are inconsistent to a certain degree, even the greats, compare his GSC in 2010 to Sabathia and you will see what I mean. The one thing he does very well on a consistent basis is pitch deep into games, which is something this team really needed.

 

There's a ton to like about Greinke, but the excuses need to stop. Pitching is ultimately all about location...

This, seriously. Greinke has a great SO/BB ratio and other things, but I don't really care if he does that and keeps giving up runs like he has. I think most of the time he goes up there and tries to pound the strike zone and throws way too many meat balls. It's not that hard to do that and get good strike out numbers and low walks while giving up runs. People need to stop looking at the more obscure stats and realize that there are a lot of hitters squaring up on him every game. Also it's not like pounding the strike zone is a bad thing but the way he's been doing it, it makes me wonder if he has command to hit corners.

[TooLiveBrew]

Also it's not like pounding the strike zone is a bad thing but the way he's been doing it, it makes me wonder if he has command to hit corners.

 

He's burned off corners many times this season with the FB, including yesterday. The example I can remember is getting Soto looking in the bottom of the second, but that probably wasn't the only one from yesterday's game alone.

[ninja33]

Only 40.7% of Greinke's pitches have been in the strike zone this year, which is far and away a career low for him (51.4% on his career). His swinging strike % (i.e. percentage of strikes that were swings and misses) is at 12.1%, a career high (and near league high, up there with Cliff Lee and Marcum). That kind of goes against the school of thought that he's throwing too many meatballs and batters are squaring him up. I'm not saying that anyone is wrong for thinking that...but just making an observation that leaves me even more confused as to why Greinke is giving up so many runs.

[And That]

nobody can disagree with the fact that we expected much more from the "ace"

Why can't anyone disagree? I disagree. Look, I just did. Someone else did, too. We have a quorum of disagreement.

 

He's pitched just fine for the most part, made a few bad pitches that have been hammered and pitched into some bad luck with crappy defense. I am not concerned.

 

Gallardo had a 5.11 ERA after 8 starts, 4.88 after 9. His sky seemed to stop falling shortly thereafter. Or has he been disappointing too?

 

Edit: Here is my Disciples of Uecker thought on the Greinke situation.

[Dnye23]

Bottom line, I think all those 'ledge' people are expecting Cy Young worthy numbers. One big plus that I like from Greinke is his K/9 is still among league leaders.

[bucksman4]

nobody can disagree with the fact that we expected much more from the "ace"

Why can't anyone disagree? I disagree. Look, I just did. Someone else did, too. We have a quorum of disagreement.

 

He's pitched just fine for the most part, made a few bad pitches that have been hammered and pitched into some bad luck with crappy defense. I am not concerned.

 

Gallardo had a 5.11 ERA after 8 starts, 4.88 after 9. His sky seemed to stop falling shortly thereafter. Or has he been disappointing too?

 

Edit: Here is my Disciples of Uecker thought on the Greinke situation.

 

 

I'm sure you believed you were getting a pitcher whose ERA was 5 plus thru his first 9 starts after giving up four of the Brewers top prospects. He's a Cy Young just a few years ago and suddenly he's getting rocked and everyone "expected this.". Hilarious.

[Raw Biz]

nobody can disagree with the fact that we expected much more from the "ace"

Why can't anyone disagree? I disagree. Look, I just did. Someone else did, too. We have a quorum of disagreement.

 

He's pitched just fine for the most part, made a few bad pitches that have been hammered and pitched into some bad luck with crappy defense. I am not concerned.

 

Gallardo had a 5.11 ERA after 8 starts, 4.88 after 9. His sky seemed to stop falling shortly thereafter. Or has he been disappointing too?

 

Edit: Here is my Disciples of Uecker thought on the Greinke situation.

I think maybe bucksman meant we expected better results. We probably didn't expect his K/BB and K/9 to be as high as they are but we also didn't expect him to give up so many runs. That's not to say he's been pitching bad but just that we expected his typical stat line to look better.

[bucksman4]

nobody can disagree with the fact that we expected much more from the "ace"

Why can't anyone disagree? I disagree. Look, I just did. Someone else did, too. We have a quorum of disagreement.

 

He's pitched just fine for the most part, made a few bad pitches that have been hammered and pitched into some bad luck with crappy defense. I am not concerned.

 

Gallardo had a 5.11 ERA after 8 starts, 4.88 after 9. His sky seemed to stop falling shortly thereafter. Or has he been disappointing too?

 

Edit: Here is my Disciples of Uecker thought on the Greinke situation.

I think maybe bucksman meant we expected better results. We probably didn't expect his K/BB and K/9 to be as high as they are but we also didn't expect him to give up so many runs. That's not to say he's been pitching bad but just that we expected his typical stat line to look better.

 

 

Yes, exactly. Im not saying he won't turn things around as Yo did after his rough start to get his ERA in line with his high K/BB rate. Thankfully the offense has picked him up in most of his starts to give him a high win total. I'm disappointed in what I've seen out of him so far because I was expecting a stud who would shut down opponents every few starts (Marcum's performance thus far is what I expected of Greinke).

[trwi7]

Only 40.7% of Greinke's pitches have been in the strike zone this year, which is far and away a career low for him (51.4% on his career). His swinging strike % (i.e. percentage of strikes that were swings and misses) is at 12.1%, a career high (and near league high, up there with Cliff Lee and Marcum). That kind of goes against the school of thought that he's throwing too many meatballs and batters are squaring him up.

How do you explain his 26.6% LD%? That would indicate that he is in fact throwing too many meatballs and the batters are squaring him up.

[And That]

I'm sure you believed you were getting a pitcher whose ERA was 5 plus thru his first 9 starts

Honestly, I don't care what his ERA is through x number of starts to begin the season if there's nothing alarming about how he's pitching, and there's not. It's just how it's worked out so far. Odds are, he'll be better from here on out.

 

and suddenly he's getting rocked and everyone "expected this.". Hilarious.

The point you really either seem to be missing or glossing over is that it is very difficult, at best, to "expect" anything out of any pitcher for 50 random innings to begin a season. This is part of the reason that relief pitchers are so hard to pin down. Sure, better pitchers will tend to pitch better in general, but plenty of awesome pitchers have produced poor results (at least via ERA) at the beginning of the year, or in any 50 random innings.

 

If Greinke had allowed only 25 ER on the year as opposed to 31, he'd have a 4.22 ERA right now and I'm guessing this thread wouldn't exist. And it wouldn't exist because of 6 meager runs in 9 starts. A few runs here, and a few runs there. How's that for expectations?

 

I don't think Greinke's start is worth gnashing teeth over, but clearly you disagree. Whatever - be disappointed all you want. But not everybody has to be, despite your beliefs. "High ERA, high K pitcher," hilarious indeed.

[bucksman4]

I'm sure you believed you were getting a pitcher whose ERA was 5 plus thru his first 9 starts

Honestly, I don't care what his ERA is through x number of starts to begin the season if there's nothing alarming about how he's pitching, and there's not. It's just how it's worked out so far. Odds are, he'll be better from here on out.

 

and suddenly he's getting rocked and everyone "expected this.". Hilarious.

The point you really either seem to be missing or glossing over is that it is very difficult, at best, to "expect" anything out of any pitcher for 50 random innings to begin a season. This is part of the reason that relief pitchers are so hard to pin down. Sure, better pitchers will tend to pitch better in general, but plenty of awesome pitchers have produced poor results (at least via ERA) at the beginning of the year, or in any 50 random innings.

 

If Greinke had allowed only 25 ER on the year as opposed to 31, he'd have a 4.22 ERA right now and I'm guessing this thread wouldn't exist. And it wouldn't exist because of 6 meager runs in 9 starts. A few runs here, and a few runs there. How's that for expectations?

 

I don't think Greinke's start is worth gnashing teeth over, but clearly you disagree. Whatever - be disappointed all you want. But not everybody has to be, despite your beliefs. "High ERA, high K pitcher," hilarious indeed.

Until proven otherwise...

[And That]

One more thing... there is a significant difference between "hope" and "expect." I think that's what getting confused here.

 

I'm sure that most Brewers fans hoped Greinke would have a better ERA to this point in the season. I sure hoped he would, and I hope that his ERA improves. I am hopeful that it will.

 

Personally, I hope that our pitchers go out and throw shutouts every time. That would be awesome.

 

Expecting things when there are small samples involved - and yes, 50 IP is a small sample as it relates to a pitcher's true talent level - will often disappoint you if your expectations are too narrow. I did not expect Greinke to repeat his Cy Young caliber season. I did not expect Greinke to injure himself in a pickup basketball game. I did expect him to have a 70:9 K/BB ratio and certainly did not expect him to have that K/BB ratio paired with a 5.23 ERA. I did not have any expectations about where he would be after 9 starts, or 7 starts, or 3 starts and I do not have any precise further expectations about where he will be after 10 starts, 11 starts, 14.5 starts or 40 starts into his Brewers career.

 

If I have any expectation about Greinke it's that, if he is healthy, that he will be a capable and somewhere above average pitcher over the long term. Where long term means, at least the length of his current contract. I can't say whether or not he's met that expectation yet because he's not anywhere close to meeting my timeline requirement. Still a ways to go.

[And That]

"High ERA, high K pitcher," hilarious indeed.

Until proven otherwise...

Thankfully, we have web sites on the internet with career statistics. Here's one.

 

His 3-year and career totals indicate that he posted above average ERAs. He's also K'd a lot of people, so you're right about that.

 

To which my guess is you'll respond: "But it's true this year in his 9 starts that he's had this year!"

 

To which I respond, it's only 50 innings and I'll take the larger sample with more and completely relevant data as better proof.

[rluzinski]

Does anyone have evidence that his location has been off or are they just assuming it based off the results? I have no ideas, since I haven't looked up any of his pitch f/x data nor can I accurately aggregate all his pitch locations based off memory to compare it to the average pitcher. I could just look at his SLG (.484) and assume that since it's high, he's had poor location but that would be a results-based observation. Whenever I read a guy trying to analyze why a pitcher has had poor results, I always very concerned that his observations are results-biased. Everyone else should be as well.

 

It could be any combination of poor location, speed, movement or bad luck. At 53 IP and when talking about ball-in-play results, there is a high potential for lots of good OR bad luck. I want solid evidence that Greinke's location has been poor (relative to the average starting pitcher) or else I My conclusion would be, "I don't know".

 

And when we start talking about the time for the excuses to stop after 53 IP for a pitcher, that's sounds more like an emotional response to poor results more than anything else.

[umphrey]

If Greinke had allowed only 25 ER on the year as opposed to 31, he'd have a 4.22 ERA right now and I'm guessing this thread wouldn't exist. And it wouldn't exist because of 6 meager runs in 9 starts. A few runs here, and a few runs there. How's that for expectations?

I am much more concerned that through 9 starts he's given up at least 2 runs every time. Also there hasn't been one thing you can really pin it on either. It hasn't been a meltdown in the 5th or 6th inning. It hasn't been something like Albert Pujols hitting a bouncing curve for a home run. The defense, well, the rest of our pitchers are doing well with it right now. It's very concerning the number of line drive hard hit balls from the middle of the strike zone. He hasn't flashed the potential I thought he had (pretty much completely in regards to command). I think his fast ball looks flat with little movement too, but I'd like to hear what other people think about that. It's even more subjective than the rest of what I said.

[markedman5]

"If I have any expectation about Greinke it's that, if he is healthy, that he will be a capable and somewhere above average pitcher over the long term"

 

I'm pretty sure that when the Brewers gutted the minor league system to get him they expectated to get a better then a "somehwhat above average pitcher".

 

They believed they were acquiring one of the best pitchers in baseball and a legitimate #1 starter.

[And That]

I'm pretty sure that when the Brewers gutted the minor league system to get him they expectated to get a better then a "somehwhat above average pitcher".

I didn't type "somewhat" - I typed "somewhere." What I mean is that, my expectation is that he will be above average, but I'm not sure if that will turn out to be "somewhat" above average or ace-like. Which, in any case, will probably make him one of the better pitchers in baseball if he stays healthy until the end of 2012.

[YoungGeezy]

Greinke stats tell the story themselves....there is nothing to be nervous about. ERA is a very misleading stat that a pitcher doesn't have that much control over. Of the stats he can control. As noted before, he has a 2.54 FIP, 1.95 XFIP, 11.81 K/9, 1.52 BB/9, 7.78 K/BB. His LOB% and BABIP are much worse than his career average so it will in all likelihood come back up to the 70% LOB% and a BABIP of around .300 (right now 56% and .364).

 

His biggest issue is the long ball with 13% of fly balls ending up as homeruns. The only pitcher with a worse one is Loe. I think when he finally gets command of his curveball which has been hanging right in every hitters wheelhouse, all will be well and the hurt of trading Greinke Jr. (Odorizzi) won't be so bad cause we will be in the playoffs

[rluzinski]

Only 40.7% of Greinke's pitches have been in the strike zone this year, which is far and away a career low for him (51.4% on his career). His swinging strike % (i.e. percentage of strikes that were swings and misses) is at 12.1%, a career high (and near league high, up there with Cliff Lee and Marcum). That kind of goes against the school of thought that he's throwing too many meatballs and batters are squaring him up. I'm not saying that anyone is wrong for thinking that...but just making an observation that leaves me even more confused as to why Greinke is giving up so many runs.

He might be falling behind more often than usual, prompting him to throw more hitable pitches later in the count. Can't really prove anything, either way.

[Thurston Fluff]

Bottom line, I think all those 'ledge' people are expecting Cy Young worthy numbers. One big plus that I like from Greinke is his K/9 is still among league leaders.

 

I think what we traded to get him is the reason we expected Cy Young type of numbers.

 

The point you really either seem to be missing or glossing over is that it is very difficult, at best, to "expect" anything out of any pitcher for 50 random innings to begin a season.

 

I really don't get why anytime stats don't seem to conform to production there is some reason for it other than the stats might not be filling out the complete picture. Fangraphs says Carlos Beltran was worth more than his salary during his time with the Mets. Does anyone not married to WAR really think that is true? Is there any way to evaluate it's accuracy or are we just supposed to accept them? Can someone please point to me to the success rates of these stats vs non stat methods?

Funny thing is I argue for more stats in football and less in baseball. Maybe not less but at least put into context. Stats are wonderful tools that can be used to great effect. But when reality to the contrary is facing you straight in the face it should have some merit on it's own shouldn't it? If k rates are such great predictors then why does he have a good k rate while getting hammered in the same game? I know I know small sample, luck plays into it yada yada. Luck seems to play a large role in it doesn't it? Or that is the standard excuse when particular stats are held to be tell alls about a player when in reality they are mere components of him.

Sometimes I think baseball stats are going the way of economics. My retired farmer/ship yard working father with nothing more than a highschool education and common sense saw the housing crash coming when MIT grads with all kinds of number crunching capabilities didn't. They are so complicated someone as astute as Rluz doesn't know what they are made up of yet we just sort of believe them. Why?

 

Greinke has disappointed so far. He may be working his way back but lets not forget why that happened. Let's also hope to see the Greinke the Brewers traded for sooner than later. Otherwise we'll have to deal with more reasons why his numbers mean more than the fact he isn't really helping us win more games than Wolf or Narveson have.

 

Sorry for the rant please hammer away at my ignorance at your leisure.

[Funketown]

Sometimes I think baseball stats are going the way of economics. My retired farmer/ship yard working father with nothing more than a highschool education and common sense saw the housing crash coming when MIT grads with all kinds of number crunching capabilities didn't.

I'm sorry, but this is just silly. People predict epic recessions/the end of America all the time, and the bottom line is that they are largely unpredictable by any means. If this is your opinion of economics you have little understanding of the field. That is an extremely ignorant statement.

[Baldkin]

I really don't get why anytime stats don't seem to conform to production there is some reason for it other than the stats might not be filling out the complete picture. Fangraphs says Carlos Beltran was worth more than his salary during his time with the Mets. Does anyone not married to WAR really think that is true? Is there any way to evaluate it's accuracy or are we just supposed to accept them? Can someone please point to me to the success rates of these stats vs non stat methods?

ERA is not a good predictive stat for a pitcher. It is largely random and varies quite a bit from year to year. By looking at more data, more stats, better predictive statistics, you can get a better idea of what a pitcher will do going forward (his true talent level).

Thus far, Greinke has pitched amazingly well, but his results have been bad. That's a statement I can get behind when describing Greinke thus far. Sometimes guys can pitch bad, and get good results (Dave Bush, 2008, for example).

K/9 and BB/9 and GB% are good predictive stats. BABIP and HR/FB are good stats to look at if you want to see if a pitcher has been unlucky.