Greinke: someone talk me off the ledge

[The Truth]

I continue to be thrilled that Greinke is a Brewer. He has nasty filthy stuff

[dlk9s]

I was wondering what the BF.net connection was...and then I reached the end. Awesome.

 

Very informative article, too.

[Glennron]

Kind of odd timing for that last sentence considering how good he's been both ERA and otherwise the last month.

[pitchleague]

I enjoyed that article a lot. Witty comments and, to me, some pretty good analysis. I'm not a stathead, but I love looking at stats and learning from them.

[jjfanec]

Since the All-Star break Greinke has the 4th best ERA in baseball at 1.38 - only Ervin Santana, Mark Buehrle, and Tim Lincecum have been better.

 

Our pitching staff as a whole has the best ERA in the NL since the break and is behind only Texas in all of baseball

[rluzinski]

Last 6 starts:

 

1.63 ERA, 38.2 IP, 45 SO, 11 BB, 4 HR

 

I think it's fair to say that Greinke has been pitching great but he's probably also been a bit lucky as well!

 

The guy is still occasionally throwing his fastball right down the middle (just like every other pitcher). I don't know if his off speed stuff has just been that much better but batters haven't been jumping on the fastball as much as they were earlier in the year.

 

What does Greinke have left, about 9 starts? 9 starts at 6-2/3rds IP per, that gives him 60 more innings. If he can put up a 3 ERA during that time, he will finish with a 3.77 ERA.

[brwrsfan]

The HR rate is concerning, it just seems that when Greinke does miss with a pitch, it's not missed down or inside or whatever, it's right over the heart of the plate, and hitters really haven't been msising them.

[JJHardy7]

I'm happy Greinke has been pitching pretty dang good as of late. Hopefully he can keep it going.

[Ennder]

Even if you miss right down the middle it is going to be hit for a HR only a fraction of the time. A lot of ERA is out of the pitchers hands, especially when you are looking at a 50 or 60 IP sample. That is generally why some sort of composite stat is better than just ERA when you are looking at smaller samples.

[rluzinski]

Even if you miss right down the middle it is going to be hit for a HR only a fraction of the time. A lot of ERA is out of the pitchers hands, especially when you are looking at a 50 or 60 IP sample. That is generally why some sort of composite stat is better than just ERA when you are looking at smaller samples.

O, I agree completely. It's easy to point to a HR and say it was hit because the pitch location was poor but pitchers throw pitches in the meat of the strike zone all the time. Estimating how good or bad a pitch is incredibly hard since much of the effectiveness of a pitch is dependent on the full repertoire of the pitcher. It wouldn't surprise me if Greinke's fastball command hasn't changed at all. Maybe he's just throwing his off speed stuff with better command, making his fastball more effective. Who knows.

[danzig6767]

Even if you miss right down the middle it is going to be hit for a HR only a fraction of the time. A lot of ERA is out of the pitchers hands, especially when you are looking at a 50 or 60 IP sample. That is generally why some sort of composite stat is better than just ERA when you are looking at smaller samples.

O, I agree completely. It's easy to point to a HR and say it was hit because the pitch location was poor but pitchers throw pitches in the meat of the strike zone all the time. Estimating how good or bad a pitch is incredibly hard since much of the effectiveness of a pitch is dependent on the full repertoire of the pitcher. It wouldn't surprise me if Greinke's fastball command hasn't changed at all. Maybe he's just throwing his off speed stuff with better command, making his fastball more effective. Who knows.

One thing i've wondered about when watching Greinke pitch this year is his use of the changeup. There are starts where be barely throws it and other starts where he throws it a lot. It has seemed to me that when he's used his changeup more extensively, he's been more effective. Obviously i could be wrong though in my observation about this.

 

Since you're so into stats, is there a site that tracks every pitch a pitcher throws and including fastball, curve, change, etc?

[TheRealMattKain]

Since you're so into stats, is there a site that tracks every pitch a pitcher throws and including fastball, curve, change, etc?

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1943&position=P#pitchtype

[rluzinski]

Since you're so into stats, is there a site that tracks every pitch a pitcher throws and including fastball, curve, change, etc?

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1943&position=P#pitchtype

You can look at it on a "per start" basis here:

http://brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php

Keep in mind that categorizing pitch types is not an exact science. Some types of pitches are very similar to each other in terms of velocity and spin. Slider/slurve/curve, for instance

Also, when Sheets was around, people were always calling on him to throw more change ups as well. It might have been in his best interest to do it but there's a reason when a pitcher is resistant to throwing a certain pitch; he knows it's not a particularly good one of his. On that fangraphs link, if you look at the value of his changeups, you can see that it has not performed well for him over the years. That probably doesn't mean he should never throw it but probably not very often.

Data from Greinke's last start:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?month=8&day=7&year=2011&game=gid_2011_08_07_milmlb_houmlb_1%2F&pitchSel=425844&prevGame=gid_2011_08_07_milmlb_houmlb_1%2F&prevDate=87

Says he threw 4 changeups,

[KCBrewerfan34]

I spoke to a guy today from Kansas City and he mentioned the trade involving Greinkem he said they're very happy with their new SS. I told him we were happy with Greinke and Yuni http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Funketown]

I told him we were happy with Greinke and Yuni http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Here we go...

 

I am hoping for another Greinke homer before the end of the year. He has put up a pretty nice batting line in his limited plate appearances.

[danzig6767]

Since you're so into stats, is there a site that tracks every pitch a pitcher throws and including fastball, curve, change, etc?

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1943&position=P#pitchtype

You can look at it on a "per start" basis here:

http://brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php

Keep in mind that categorizing pitch types is not an exact science. Some types of pitches are very similar to each other in terms of velocity and spin. Slider/slurve/curve, for instance

Also, when Sheets was around, people were always calling on him to throw more change ups as well. It might have been in his best interest to do it but there's a reason when a pitcher is resistant to throwing a certain pitch; he knows it's not a particularly good one of his. On that fangraphs link, if you look at the value of his changeups, you can see that it has not performed well for him over the years. That probably doesn't mean he should never throw it but probably not very often.

Data from Greinke's last start:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?month=8&day=7&year=2011&game=gid_2011_08_07_milmlb_houmlb_1%2F&pitchSel=425844&prevGame=gid_2011_08_07_milmlb_houmlb_1%2F&prevDate=87

Says he threw 4 changeups,

Thanks

 

Wow, it amazes me sometimes the amount of data now available in regards to baseball since i only have a minor interest in the really advanced stuff out there. That brooksbaseball link being a prime example. Do they pay someone to watch every single game and chart each pitch thrown? If so, how do they get their money back for providing this data?

 

As for Greinke and the fangraphs data on his pitch value, i see they try calculating runs above average per 100 pitches and i'm assuming anything a minus is negative?

 

Oh well, regardless of the exact calculations, it does look like over his career, the changeup has resulted in more negative outcomes than positive. This year though for whatever reason, the changeup has been more effective for Greinke and thus i wasn't really wrong in my observation of him as a Brewer throwing the change for positive results, but the career numbers likely explain why he doesn't feature the pitch more often even as this year the results have been better?