Greinke: someone talk me off the ledge

[molitor fan]

Living in North Carolina, I got the Reds announcers for this game. They were postulating that ZG's fastball was straighter than they recalled and that his confidence in it has decreased, thus increasing his pitch count because he is keeping his fastball out of the strike zone against guys like Votto. They were also marveling at his off speed filthiness. 75 innings or so at 16w/107 ks is really strange, especially at a 5.45 ERA

[pebadger]

Another Greinke apologetic:

 

http://disciplesofuecker....ked-have-no-luck-at-all/

 

Look, I love stats and matehmatical analysis. I have a degree in Operations Reserach though I no longer work in that field.I also think I have a greater appreciation for the impact of "luck" in sports than most. I have seen first hand how folks fall in love with their own sophisticated models. The key to using them wisely though is to keep thieir limitations first and foremost in your mind. The fact that the model can't provide a reason(s) for a certain case does not mean that there isn't a reason(s) (other than random variation) for that case. Simply attributing all variance not explained by the model to "luck" in the traditional sense borders on arrogance. We simply aren't smart enough, and as advanced as our mathematics are, our tools are still too limited, to capture every nuance of every case.

 

I think Greinke has been unfortunate to a degree. But I think there are also some things that he is doing, and that his opponents are doing, that are casuing him to be roughed up at times. The problem folks have with all of this is the fact that, when he has been good in games, he's been really good. It's just the cognitive dissonance of it all that is causing folks trouble.

 

I will also note that it's somewhat odd to me that most of this arugment about "luck" has been framed in a strange way. It almost seems like not being able to make sense of this is driving folks to analyze themselves into confusion.

 

The consistency of ZG's bad luck is the nut of this. The repeatability indicates that either he is indeed in just one of those streaks of inexplicable misfortune or that there is some common factor(s) which are present in his performance (and ther performance of his opponents and defense) that we simply aren't accounting for. The fact that we don't/can't account for them doesn't mean that they don't exist.

[jjkoestler]

The same people that stood with Yuni are now against Greinke. Gee, reeaaal surprising.

I'm not sure what you mean here. I do not see a connection between being optimistic about Yuni and having a problem with the way Greinke is pitching.

[BrewerTerp]

I am 100% not worried about Zack Greinke. He has been really unlucky in his starts, but the team has been very lucky that he has a solid record to show for it. I think that bodes very well for the next three months.

[JJHardy7]

We have a lot of work to do with regards to how we fans evaluate players. This thread proves it. The same people that stood with Yuni are now against Greinke. Gee, reeaaal surprising.

 

I don't see how the two compare. Yuni was a throw-in/had to take him in the deal. We traded FOR Greinke. If Yuni doesn't/is not playing well, it doesn't mean it was a bad deal. If Greinke plays poorly, it is a bad deal.

[TooLiveBrew]

His point was how people are assessing players, not who makes or breaks the deal. I hadn't noticed if the same people who were upset that people thought Yuni would suck as badly as he has are also convinced Greinke isn't good or not, though.

[twobrewers]

If you could extend Greinke's contract - what would you be willing to pay him?

 

Given his social anxiety disorder and his one stellar season, I wouldn't give him any more than 3 years and 39 million.

 

Does anyone expect him to get a HUGE deal when he is done with the Brewers?

[JJHardy7]

His point was how people are assessing players, not who makes or breaks the deal. I hadn't noticed if the same people who were upset that people thought Yuni would suck as badly as he has are also convinced Greinke isn't good or not, though.

 

I get that, but I don't see how you can corelate that those that were ok with Yuni and don't like Greinke have some type of agenda, etc. Yuni's numbers weren't great and I guess from my view I personally 'hoped' he'd play better than some said and was willing to be patient. For me, expectations kind of go hand in hand with past performance. If he came to Milwaukee and was decent, great. If not, it's not like I'd be shocked.

 

On the other hand, expectations are much greater for Greinke. I think it's fair to ask questions, etc. I personally think that's more interesting than a 40+ page thread about a player that was a throw-in and should have had minimal expectations. I'm more interested in a thread (like in the transactions area) of shortstop options. Yuni isn't good...I get it. The question for him is what can we do now? I do think we can win with Yuni's skill level if everything else works out the right way, but having Casey next to him at 3B does not help us at all.

 

And as for Greinke...we need him in top form if we're going to win the division. Plain and simple IMO. I'm not saying Greinke is awful, terrible, etc, but reality is much, much, much more is expected of him.

[RockCoCougars]

I'd have no problem exploring an extension with Greinke right now, but I doubt if he would sell low. I'll be shocked if he doesn't get his ERA down to the low 4's or better by the end of the year. I think he's going to go on a roll. People forget that Sabathia wasn't lights out the first half of 2008 either. If Greinke can do 80% of what what CC did in the second half, I'll be happy.

[TooLiveBrew]

With two starts, Zack has moved his ERA from 5.45 to 4.84. Not only are the Brewers going to be glad to have him this season, he's going to be awesome to watch next season as well.

 

That ERA will be in the low 4's & probably lower before you know it. If he makes three consecutive starts of 6 IP & 3 ER, his ERA is down to 4.78. Call me a crazy optimist, but I'm taking the under on a 4.53 ERA after his next three starts.

 

If he pitches three more outings like his last one (7 IP, 2 ER), his ERA would be down to 4.40. Not saying it's likely, just saying it's possible.

 

 

EDIT: Fixed incorrect ERA in 4th sentence. I'll still be crazy & take the under on a 4.53 ERA after his next three starts!

[logan82]

I still say jump. It wasn't clear which way we were supposed to talk the OP into going off.

[TooLiveBrew]

His next two starts will be against the Cubs & Astros, or Cubs & Cards, depending on whether or not Roenicke skips Narveson on the off day of the 25th. My guess is Narveson won't get skipped.

[cwolf2012]

"If he makes three consecutive starts of 6 IP & 3 ER, his ERA is down to 4.53"

 

Mathematically, that can't be correct. 6 IP, 3 ER is a 4.5 ERA, no way it bumps a 4.84 down to 4.53. 7 IP, 3 ER might be close to doing that, though.

[TooLiveBrew]

Hmm, crap. You're right, it's 4.78. Not sure what I was smoking. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif I was working with +6 ER instead of +9. Thanks for catching that.

[HiAndTight]

If you could extend Greinke's contract - what would you be willing to pay him?

 

Given his social anxiety disorder and his one stellar season, I wouldn't give him any more than 3 years and 39 million.

 

Does anyone expect him to get a HUGE deal when he is done with the Brewers?

The social anxiety thing is a complete non-issue at this point. We're going back what, 5-6 years now, and it's had no impact on him in the intermediary. So I wouldn't factor that into this whatsoever.

 

And I would absolutely be willing to extend it, and I'd extend it for 4 years 72 million right now if he'd be willing to do it. I'm that convinced that he's an elite, top 10 pitcher in all of baseball.

 

I think he's going through just about the worst stretch since he came back from the social anxiety issues(Which again, are now a non-issue with the medication) and in watching him, it's not hard to see the ability to dominate.

 

I still see him winning another Cy Young, particularly if we can re-vamp our defense, and having a very long and very successful career. He profiles as the type that's going to be able to easily adjust to a decrease in velocity as he hits his mid 30's.

[GAME05]

he's coming from the AL, and the fact that his ERA is going down as he's starting to see the same teams for about the third time now has me pretty confident that he's going to get better and better as the season wears on.

[TooLiveBrew]

In a recent interview with minor-leaguer Jimmy Nelson, Nelson made the comment that he always (in college & beyond) felt like he really started pitching his best after about the 60 IP tally or so on a season. I will admit this is just cherry-picking stats, but Greinke over his first 53.1 IP: 5.23 ERA; since then (last 6 starts): 4.24 ERA.

 

While it may get dismissed, I also think there's something to Greinke essentially having his ST starts as rehab assignments & the start of his regular season. If you arbitrarily (aka cherry-picking-ly) wipe out his first 4 starts, his ERA since is 4.34.

[Invader3K]

His WHIP so far this season is 1.202, which is actually a bit lower than his WHIP for last season, and slightly better than his career average of 1.260. His SO/9 is 11.7, which is way better than his career average of 7.9.

[umphrey]

His WHIP so far this season is 1.202, which is actually a bit lower than his WHIP for last season, and slightly better than his career average of 1.260. His SO/9 is 11.7, which is way better than his career average of 7.9.

But these stats tell us nothing about how he is doing with runners on base, or how often he is getting into a hitters count and putting a lifeless fastball right down the middle. Those have been major problems this year, but not in his most recent start.

[homer]

His big problem is the dinger. He's given up about twice as many (rate wise) this season over any other season in his career. I have no idea why that is. His stuff is no different (and might be better) than it was two years ago.

 

I still love watching him pitch. Just wish he'd stop giving up homers.

[rluzinski]

Last 4 starts:

 

25.2 IP, 1.40 ERA, 34 SO, 7 BB. .622 OPS against

 

While his results prior to that didn't have me jumping off a ledge, I would be lying if I said that I wasn't concerned at all. His good peripherals overall and his last four starts have made me confident that he will finish strong, though.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Last 4 starts:

 

25.2 IP, 1.40 ERA, 34 SO, 7 BB. .622 OPS against

 

While his results prior to that didn't have me jumping off a ledge, I would be lying if I said that I wasn't concerned at all. His good peripherals overall and his last four starts have made me confident that he will finish strong, though.

As we all very well know, performance doesn't always equal results. However, I do sometimes worry that a good performance leading to bad results ends up as being a self fulfilling prophecy, especially with a guy like Greinke.

[gregmag]

Last 4 starts:

 

25.2 IP, 1.40 ERA, 34 SO, 7 BB. .622 OPS against

 

While his results prior to that didn't have me jumping off a ledge, I would be lying if I said that I wasn't concerned at all. His good peripherals overall and his last four starts have made me confident that he will finish strong, though.

It's a small sample, and I'm as much of a command/control fetishist as anybody, but the number that jumps out at me there is 7 walks in 26 innings, which is a huge increase over his rate before. Again, SMALL SAMPLE, but maybe people were right that he was going for the plate a bit too much earlier in the year. Could he be a pitcher whose "not quite on his game" mode entails excessive control? That would be kind of, well, wild. I'll be interested to see what approach he takes over the rest of the year.

 

 

[TauPentaRei]

It's all about the last sentence here. I think the writer was prowling around this site.

[pebadger]

Looks like somebody may have read this thread. (You have to read the whole thing).

 

http://www.grantland.com/...-advanced-pitching-stats