Greinke: someone talk me off the ledge

[Bombers]

Was at the game today - pretty disappointed. Have seen 3 of his games in person, really unimpressed. 5+ ERA? Someone talk me off the ledge ... We traded what to get this?

[And That]

talk me off the ledge

Why are you on a ledge over 53 mediocre innings from Greinke? Virtually all pitchers go through this at times. For Zack, just happens to be at the beginning of the year. After happening to miss almost all of spring training.

 

Not a big deal. Certainly not ledge-worthy, at least in my book of ledges.

[Funketown]

xFIP = 2.03

K/BB = 8.57

 

For some reason, guys have been getting good wood on some of his pitches despite looking foolish on many of his pitches. He's getting a decent amount of the plate right now, but his peripherals are still very very good. He'll be fine; 50 innings is not nearly enough to judge a pitcher by. He'll be fine.

[paul253]

Yeah his last three starts were pretty good before this. Maybe he's throwing too many strikes.

[Oxy]

He has great raw stuff, but only okay command. It's likely that he's been told to "trust his stuff" so much over the years that he basically just offers up meatballs every once in awhile rather than work the corners. He has looked far, far better than a 5+ ERA, and his peripheral stats say he has been far, far better than a 5+ ERA. When both of those things agree I am fairly confident that things will straighten out for him. His last few outings before this one were pretty good. Marcum and Gallardo have each had stretches this year where you feel like nobody is going to hit them, and I think it's just a matter of time before Zack gets into that groove as well. Luckily, the offense has picked him up big time, so that should really help out his confidence and demeanor out there, and his poor results haven't hurt us much (until today)

 

In short, I'm not worried at all.

[logan82]

Jump, it won't hurt much. You can jump back on after he gets right.

[DHonks]

Greinke's mistakes are getting hammered right now, but he's still in a tough spot as a pitcher throwing with April stuff against hitters in mi-season form

[PrinceEatMeat]

I really don't understand why some people are so worried about Greinke. He's basically still in early season form. He's 9 starts in, basically having missed all of spring training and the whole first month of the season. For him it's basically like he's in April form right now. He'll be just fine. Like some of you said, it's just that a lot of balls are getting hit hard for some reason even though he has just been baffling some hitters with tons of strikeouts and very few walks. I think that things will turn around for him pretty quickly. 50 innings or so is a very small sample for a pitcher. He's still yet to get into true form, and yet he has actually pitched pretty well for the most part. He's had some rough games, but his K:BB ratio is very encouraging. We all know he has the stuff. I think he'll be huge for us down the stretch. Can't complain much about a 6-2 pitcher either.

[bucksman4]

I really don't understand why some people are so worried about Greinke. He's basically still in early season form. He's 9 starts in, basically having missed all of spring training and the whole first month of the season. For him it's basically like he's in April form right now. He'll be just fine. Like some of you said, it's just that a lot of balls are getting hit hard for some reason even though he has just been baffling some hitters with tons of strikeouts and very few walks. I think that things will turn around for him pretty quickly. 50 innings or so is a very small sample for a pitcher. He's still yet to get into true form, and yet he has actually pitched pretty well for the most part. He's had some rough games, but his K:BB ratio is very encouraging. We all know he has the stuff. I think he'll be huge for us down the stretch. Can't complain much about a 6-2 pitcher either.

Seriously? We still have to hear the "he's still in early season form line?" How long do we keep using that as an excuse for his horrible pitching (K/BB doesn't tell everything, statheads. He's getting rocked). 9 starts in? Look at Marcum's numbers in his first nine starts.

Why must people feel they have to keep making excuses for a guy who cost us a heck of a lot to get. At this point, I wish we still had Odorizzi. Greinke hasn't fooled anyone. Early in the year I compared Greinke to Matt Garza. High K total, high ERA guy. Maybe the Royals just fleeced us on the trade.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I really don't understand why some people are so worried about Greinke. He's basically still in early season form. He's 9 starts in, basically having missed all of spring training and the whole first month of the season. For him it's basically like he's in April form right now. He'll be just fine. Like some of you said, it's just that a lot of balls are getting hit hard for some reason even though he has just been baffling some hitters with tons of strikeouts and very few walks. I think that things will turn around for him pretty quickly. 50 innings or so is a very small sample for a pitcher. He's still yet to get into true form, and yet he has actually pitched pretty well for the most part. He's had some rough games, but his K:BB ratio is very encouraging. We all know he has the stuff. I think he'll be huge for us down the stretch. Can't complain much about a 6-2 pitcher either.

Seriously? We still have to hear the "he's still in early season form line?" How long do we keep using that as an excuse for his horrible pitching (K/BB doesn't tell everything, statheads. He's getting rocked). 9 starts in? Look at Marcum's numbers in his first nine starts.

Why must people feel they have to keep making excuses for a guy who cost us a heck of a lot to get. At this point, I wish we still had Odorizzi. Greinke hasn't fooled anyone. Early in the year I compared Greinke to Matt Garza. High K total, high ERA guy. Maybe the Royals just fleeced us on the trade.

The majority of those 9 starts would come in spring training, so comparing him to Marcum isn't really accurate. And coming off a lot of down time doesn't help either. I don't see how it doesn't come into the equation. I don't know how a pitcher that missed all of spring training and an entire month of the season is expected to come out in be in perfect form within his first 50 innings. Yes, he could be doing better, but this isn't enough to write him off on either. Way too early to judge this trade, or what kind of pitcher he will be. People just need to give him a chance. Keep in mind the horrible stretch Gallardo had earlier this year (First 9 starts, 4.88 ERA 4-2 record, Since then 2.13 ERA 4-1 record). A lot of people freaked out in the same way about that, wanting him to be fake DL'd or demoted, and he turned it around and is back in form. Can't judge a good pitcher off this kind of stretch. Greinke is a very good pitcher, and he'll prove it as the season goes on.

[Bombers]

Greinke is a very good pitcher, and he'll prove it as the season goes on.

No doubt he is a good pitcher and I will be rooting for him to do well. But April form, May form, June form, October form, whichever, I expect more from a guy who is an "ace of staff." How many times does Lincecum, Halliday, Sabathia, or Verlander have 9 starts, 50+ innings with a 5+ ERA?

 

Our post season aspirations sit on his shoulders. (And not only him, but we cannot expect to make a deep run with him throwing mediocre ball) ... Hopefully in a month I am singing a different tune. But if it's the all-star break and he is still struggling ... I don't know, I guess I can always say he is only in May form, he will get better. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[And That]

Bombers]How many times does Lincecum, Halliday, Sabathia, or Verlander have 9 starts... with a 5+ ERA?

Lincecum: 1

Halladay: 2 (though he's been in the mid-4's 3 times)

Sabathia: 3 (including 2008, his age 27 year, just like Greinke's this year... remember that year?)

Verlander: 1

 

Greinke: 2

[Bombers]

How many times does Lincecum, Halliday, Sabathia, or Verlander have 9 starts... with a 5+ ERA?

Lincecum: 1

Halladay: 2 (though he's been in the mid-4's 3 times)

Sabathia: 3 (including 2008, his age 27 year, just like Greinke's this year... remember that year?)

Verlander: 1

 

Greinke: 2

 

You saved me a whole lot of time as I was going to try and look it up. So thanks! Well I just hope this is a small blip on the radar for him and in a month we have forgotten about it

[PrinceEatMeat]

How many times does Lincecum, Halliday, Sabathia, or Verlander have 9 starts... with a 5+ ERA?

Lincecum: 1

Halladay: 2 (though he's been in the mid-4's 3 times)

Sabathia: 3 (including 2008, his age 27 year, just like Greinke's this year... remember that year?)

Verlander: 1

 

Greinke: 2

Thanks, I think that should put it into perspective for most people. Tough stretches happen. We'll all get over it when he turns it around.

[RockCoCougars]

Anybody would have looked bad pitching in those conditions today. I'm not worried at all.

[TheCrew07]

The majority of those 9 starts would come in spring training, so comparing him to Marcum isn't really accurate. And coming off a lot of down time doesn't help either. I don't see how it doesn't come into the equation. I don't know how a pitcher that missed all of spring training and an entire month of the season is expected to come out in be in perfect form within his first 50 innings. Yes, he could be doing better, but this isn't enough to write him off on either.

Why do people keep posting this? Has everyone forgotten that he actually got 1 more minor league rehab start than he needed? He was fully stretched out when he came up to Milwaukee.

 

Once again there is a disconnect between certain metrics that are mostly based on peripherals and the actual results on the field. People are going to tell us he's unlucky because of his LOB% over his last 40 starts, throw out xFIP which is meaningless in this context, compare his rate stats to other true aces, and so on. The only problem is that he's continually pitched below his talent with the exception of his CY season.

 

All of the rate stats, metrics... all of that is true, Greinke does compare favorably to Sabathia and other top pitchers in every way but the actual result on the field. So why is that? Well if you dig a little deeper looking at his GSC, his game logs, and actually pay attention to how he pitches in the games then it's a not a mystery at all. It's not that he's unlucky, it's that he grooves way too many FBs. He get's away with a fair amount of them, in fact he keeps hitters off balance enough that they watch many go by without even taking a swing. However if a hitter is looking FB when he throws one... well you don't get to the majors if you can't consistently hit a thigh to belt high FB over the heart of the plate very hard. That's not Zach getting unlucky, that's Zach putting pitches in horrible location, regardless of the ultimate result, those are hitters pitchers.

 

Simply put he gives up more runs than he should because his FB location is sloppy at times. I took quite a bit of flak for point out how uneven he's been over his career and that overall I viewed him as more of a #2 than a #1, and still believe my assessment of him was on the money. People around here over valued him based on his talent and his 1 CY season, but over the entirety of his career he hasn't pitched as well as a Halladay or Sabathia, though that's what people thought we were getting. Apparently that's what Melvin thought too because we gave up an avalanche of talent to acquire him, we paid much more for Greinke than we did for Sabathia and we aren't going to get nearly the same result.

 

Zach will be unwordly for a couple of games, then he'll crash and post a sub 20 GSC... those extreme lows bring down his overall pitching line. All MLB pitchers are inconsistent to a certain degree, even the greats, compare his GSC in 2010 to Sabathia and you will see what I mean. The one thing he does very well on a consistent basis is pitch deep into games, which is something this team really needed.

 

There's a ton to like about Greinke, but the excuses need to stop. Pitching is ultimately all about location...

 

[Ennder]

If you are going to judge pitchers using ERA you will never be happy. It is just way too random over such small samples of innings.

[jjfanec]

Seriously? We still have to hear the "he's still in early season form line?" How long do we keep using that as an excuse for his horrible pitching (K/BB doesn't tell everything, statheads. He's getting rocked). 9 starts in? Look at Marcum's numbers in his first nine starts.

Why must people feel they have to keep making excuses for a guy who cost us a heck of a lot to get. At this point, I wish we still had Odorizzi. Greinke hasn't fooled anyone. Early in the year I compared Greinke to Matt Garza. High K total, high ERA guy. Maybe the Royals just fleeced us on the trade.

We got fleeced? Come on. We gave up a no hit shortstop, a reliever who can't through strikes (back in AAA), a solid CF prospect and a young pitcher in Odorizzi who has great potential but is still in A-ball. Over his last 27 innings (6 starts) he has given up 31 hits and walked 10. He has only given up 13 runs in those but he definitely not been dominant lately.

 

I really like Odorizzi and like Cain so we did give up talent but what of my issues with people on this board is that they post something after every great game from a prospect we gave up but not a peep when they struggle

[TooLiveBrew]

When Marcum inevitably struggles during the course of the season, we won't see a thread started about it because his ERA will still look good, since it'll just be later in the year. I'm with logan, if you're on the ledge on Greinke, go ahead & jump. Not worth worrying about.

[And That]

(K/BB doesn't tell everything, statheads.)

No one said it did.

Look at Marcum's numbers in his first nine starts.

As long as we're being random, how about Marcum's first 9 starts in 2006? Or 2007?

 

Or CC Sabathia in 2008?

At this point, I wish we still had Odorizzi.

Then we could have seen 10-12 starts between Marco Estrada and Frankie de la Cruz, or God forbid, Mark Rogers. As sweet as that would have been, I'm not with you on the de la Estrada bandwagon.

Early in the year I compared Greinke to Matt Garza. High K total, high ERA guy.

Garza has a career ERA of 3.96. Greinke has a career ERA of 3.85. Both of which may shock you to know, are better than average.

 

High ERA... the hell?

[danzig6767]

The majority of those 9 starts would come in spring training, so comparing him to Marcum isn't really accurate. And coming off a lot of down time doesn't help either. I don't see how it doesn't come into the equation. I don't know how a pitcher that missed all of spring training and an entire month of the season is expected to come out in be in perfect form within his first 50 innings. Yes, he could be doing better, but this isn't enough to write him off on either.

Apparently that's what Melvin thought too because we gave up an avalanche of talent to acquire him, we paid much more for Greinke than we did for Sabathia and we aren't going to get nearly the same result.

Sabathia was known the be only a three month rental, Greinke was acquired with two full years left on his contract. Huge difference and a significant factor in what a team can ask for in return.

 

As for Greinke, i have no doubt at all that at some point he will stop giving up as

many runs, i just don't know whether his eventual improvement will be a

good amounts of great outings or just good outings?

 

He's been so frustrating to watch so far, more so than any Brewers

pitcher i can remember in recent history because he keeps doing stuff like

have an inning where he leaves say three pitches to three hitters right

over the middle of the plate that get tattooed, and then he'll look fabulous striking

out the other three. It's not often that you'll see a pitcher with a

70/9 K/BB ratio and a 1.24 WHIP, who also has a 5.23 ERA.

 

Generally in a situation like that you'd think the pitcher has just

mainly had quite a bit of bad luck via many seeing eye singles coming

around to score eventually. All of us watching the games though have

seen the same thing, a to high percentage of the hits Greinke is giving

up have been hit really hard after he left pitches to much over the

plate. Plus, this is happening more times to often with runners on base

than empty. Yea, this is a very small sample, but even before his bad

start today vs the Cubs, batters have hit .405 so far with RISP and most

of those have been hit hard, to the tune of a .733 SLG. Those numbers will go up after today.

 

Hopefully Zack's climb back to being the highly productive pitcher he's been starts next time out, even if he never is the Cy Young level Geinke again.

[berniebrewer4life]

Garza has a career ERA of 3.96. Greinke has a career ERA of 3.85. Both of which may shock you to know, are better than average.

 

High ERA... the hell?

I guess it depends on who you compare him to. Compared to Walter Johnson and Bob Gibson, it's a high ERA. But compared to 95% of the rest of the pitchers, it seems just fine to me.

[JohnBriggs12]

I really don't understand why some people are so worried about Greinke. He's basically still in early season form. He's 9 starts in, basically having missed all of spring training and the whole first month of the season. For him it's basically like he's in April form right now. He'll be just fine. Like some of you said, it's just that a lot of balls are getting hit hard for some reason even though he has just been baffling some hitters with tons of strikeouts and very few walks. I think that things will turn around for him pretty quickly. 50 innings or so is a very small sample for a pitcher. He's still yet to get into true form, and yet he has actually pitched pretty well for the most part. He's had some rough games, but his K:BB ratio is very encouraging. We all know he has the stuff. I think he'll be huge for us down the stretch. Can't complain much about a 6-2 pitcher either.

Seriously? We still have to hear the "he's still in early season form line?" How long do we keep using that as an excuse for his horrible pitching (K/BB doesn't tell everything, statheads. He's getting rocked). 9 starts in? Look at Marcum's numbers in his first nine starts.

Why must people feel they have to keep making excuses for a guy who cost us a heck of a lot to get. At this point, I wish we still had Odorizzi. Greinke hasn't fooled anyone. Early in the year I compared Greinke to Matt Garza. High K total, high ERA guy. Maybe the Royals just fleeced us on the trade.

 

I couldn't agree more bucksman. There's no difference between facing April hitters and June hitters. Some you face are hot, some are not. That's true the entire year. I don't think it's too early to expect to see the guy the Brewers gave up 4 good young players to get. It's not that he's been horrific, but he's certainly been nowhere near what was advertised either.

[gregmag]

This is one of those threads where two groups of people are talking right past each other. One group is analyzing Greinke's performance and trying to suggest what that performance indicates about what he'll do from here on. The other group is judging Greinke by various iterations of a moral standard -- don't make excuses for him, he has to perform, he's supposed to be an ace, we gave up a lot to get him. IMHO, each of those discussions, for the most part, makes sense on its own terms. Personally, I'm only interested in the first one, because I don't ascribe any particular moral weight to sports. Other people want to have the other discussion, and that's great. But, to paraphrase Bill Murray, crossing the two wires is bad: There is such a thing as good performance that generates bad results (also bad performance that generates good results), and sometimes good players have bad stretches, and all the moralistic chest-thumping in the world won't change those facts.

[bucksman4]

There may be two schools of thoughts here but nobody can disagree with the fact that we expected much more from the "ace" that we sold the farm for and that he has been far from the dominant pitcher we all thought we were getting.