Bullpen Concern?

[Raw Biz]

Ennder wrote:

 

I understand your point about Hawkins but he's by far the most experienced, and if you are actually watching him pitch instead of relying on your stathead stuff, you'll see he's getting consistent sink on 93 mph fastballs, and that's why he's not giving up runs regardless of his K rate.

It is because his groundballs happen to all be right at guys instead of through holes, there is no reason to think Hawkins won't completely implode into a 3.50+ ERA at some point going forward, he has shown nothing good so far. If there is any positive to Hawkins it is that his control has been good and that is generally a recipe for success but when you can't get the ball past any bats all the control in the world isn't going to really help that much long term.

Yeah but at this point, Hawkins has had a lot of success and Loe hasn't. Why not go with the hot hand. I know stats will show there is really no such as a "hot hand" but Hawkins has had success so far, why not give him and Braddock a shot?

[jjfanec]

Why is Loe still on this team? He is beyond awful

I am fine with Loe being on the team but I dont understand why he is the set up guy. Hawkins to the 8th seems so logical

[berniebrewer4life]

Why is Loe still on this team? He is beyond awful

He's really not that bad. If you take out his one horrible outing vs the Mets, his last several appearances(going back to May 15th) have looked like this.

 

16IP

9 Hits

1 Walk

14 Strikeouts

4 Earned Runs

 

I'm pretty bad at math, but i think that puts his ERA a little bit over 2, and his whip well under 0.75. I mean, the guy gave up 25% of his total runs allowed in one game. Other than one REALLY bad outing, he does well when RR doesn't use him for several days in a row. Heck, the last 4 times out for him are a great example.

 

June 11th - Decent outing(13 pitches)

June 12th- Decent outing(8 pitches)

June 13th - gives up a run(18 pitches)

June 15th - gives up a run.(13 pitches)

 

The guy needs more than one day off every 5 days Ron.

[danzig6767]

Loe is on pace to lose 14 games. It would be 17 had not the offense pulled off an incredible rally last week. That is simply unacceptable

 

Losses are team stats.

 

I understand your point about Hawkins but he's by far the most experienced, and if you are actually watching him pitch instead of relying on your stathead stuff, you'll see he's getting consistent sink on 93 mph fastballs, and that's why he's not giving up runs regardless of his K rate.

 

It is because his groundballs happen to all be right at guys instead of through holes, there is no reason to think Hawkins won't completely implode into a 3.50+ ERA at some point going forward, he has shown nothing good so far. If there is any positive to Hawkins it is that his control has been good and that is generally a recipe for success but when you can't get the ball past any bats all the control in the world isn't going to really help that much long term.

Yea Hawkins isn't getting a lot of strikeouts and a good percentage of grounders he's inducing are going close to infielders instead of finding holes, but batters for the most part aren't hitting the ball hard off him either, unlike Loe. Certainly the ground ball gods could change luck wise against Hawkins, but it's not as if batters are routinely hitting bullet grounders right at infielders or hitting bullets into the outfield that luckily found a glove. There was a liner tonight at Braun, but there haven't been a bunch of innings during this Hawkins scoreless streak where i went whew, thankfully we got lucky there to get out of the inning with no damage after all those hard hit balls found gloves. Obviously LaTroy won't keep up this sub-1.00 ERA pace, but i see no reason like you do that he's due to implode either. I'd feel that way if batters were hitting rockets like off Loe and finding gloves, that hasn't been the case..

 

With Loe though, in these outings where he's being scored on, it's largely been because of him throwing some really bad pitches. Sure he gets some seeing eye ground ball singles like everyone gets, but he's really been struggling with throwing belt high sinkers right down the heart of the plate that aren't sinking, and batters are tattooing those pitches. He's not getting killed mostly via some bad BABIP luck where lots of seeing eye grounders miss gloves, he's been throwing some big time meatballs and giving up runs because of it.

[Robideaux]

He's really not that bad. If you take out his one horrible outing vs the Mets, his last several appearances(going back to May 15th) have looked like this.

 

16IP

9 Hits

1 Walk

14 Strikeouts

4 Earned Runs

 

I'm pretty bad at math, but i think that puts his ERA a little bit over 2, and his whip well under 0.75. I mean, the guy gave up 25% of his total runs allowed in one game.

Not to be argumentative, but don't you think if you parse the numbers of any reliever and take out his worst outing, they will have a low ERA and their overall numbers would look good? I'm not sure what useful information that conveys.

 

I could also do the opposite, and skew the sample to make him look particularly bad. If you go back to May 4, for example, he has 20.2 innings total, with 15 runs allowed, so he's essentially had an ERA of 6.50 since the beginning of May. Even if you were to take out his most recent implosion, as you have done, his ERA "drops" to 4.50.

 

Loe has not been effective this season. I'm not saying he can't be an effective pitcher if used correctly, but to say that he has been good in his "not horrible" outings is something you could say about almost every major league reliever.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Losses are team stats.

 

For a starting pitcher, I completely agree with you - for a guy whose role on this team (correct or not) has been the "8th inning guy" who comes into games late that are tight or that the Brewers lead, I'd argue that losses on Loe's record are more concerning.

[JohnBriggs12]

Haudricourt reported that yesterday Hawkins went into Roenicke's office to discuss his role. Latroy it appears wasn't real happy that he wasn't called upon in the 8th the night before to protect a 3 run lead. Roenicke said something about "trying to go with the hot hand" in choosing Estrada.

 

I love that attitude from Hawkins.

 

Apparently Braddock isn't the only one with sleep problems. How else does one explain Roenicke thinking Estrada's hand was hot after he's been getting rocked for a month now.

[Oxy]

Haudricourt reported that yesterday Hawkins went into Roenicke's office to discuss his role. Latroy it appears wasn't real happy that he wasn't called upon in the 8th the night before to protect a 3 run lead. Roenicke said something about "trying to go with the hot hand" in choosing Estrada.

 

I love that attitude from Hawkins.

 

Apparently Braddock isn't the only one with sleep problems. How else does one explain Roenicke thinking Estrada's hand was hot after he's been getting rocked for a month now.

There are managers, players managers, and guys who let the players manage. Roenicke appears to be in the latter category, at least with Kotsay and Hawkins. I just wonder where the buck stops (YuBet? Nieves?). This can be good and it can be bad. So far it's worked to the tune 39-30 and first place. I don't think anybody would argue with being 78-60 on September first.

 

What this tells me is that Counsell needs to step up and tell Roenicke that he can start 4 days a week if he needs him.

[Oxy]

Not to be argumentative, but don't you think if you parse the numbers of any reliever and take out his worst outing, they will have a low ERA and their overall numbers would look good? I'm not sure what useful information that conveys.

 

I could also do the opposite, and skew the sample to make him look particularly bad. If you go back to May 4, for example, he has 20.2 innings total, with 15 runs allowed, so he's essentially had an ERA of 6.50 since the beginning of May. Even if you were to take out his most recent implosion, as you have done, his ERA "drops" to 4.50.

 

Loe has not been effective this season. I'm not saying he can't be an effective pitcher if used correctly, but to say that he has been good in his "not horrible" outings is something you could say about almost every major league reliever.

This is true to a certain extent. Loe has pitched in SO many games though, and his bad outings have been SO bad (giving up 3, 4, and 5 earned runs, which is rare for a reliever) that all of his good outings are just ignored. He's given up ERs in 10/37 appearances, which doesn't seem too bad to me. The main issue I have is that it seems pretty easy to tell when he's got his good stuff and when he doesn't. Instead of letting him get shelled for 5 runs, he should be pulled after 2-3 guys hit shots off his sinkerball that isn't sinking.

[berniebrewer4life]

He's really not that bad. If you take out his one horrible outing vs the Mets, his last several appearances(going back to May 15th) have looked like this.

 

16IP

9 Hits

1 Walk

14 Strikeouts

4 Earned Runs

 

I'm pretty bad at math, but i think that puts his ERA a little bit over 2, and his whip well under 0.75. I mean, the guy gave up 25% of his total runs allowed in one game.

Not to be argumentative, but don't you think if you parse the numbers of any reliever and take out his worst outing, they will have a low ERA and their overall numbers would look good? I'm not sure what useful information that conveys.

 

I could also do the opposite, and skew the sample to make him look particularly bad. If you go back to May 4, for example, he has 20.2 innings total, with 15 runs allowed, so he's essentially had an ERA of 6.50 since the beginning of May. Even if you were to take out his most recent implosion, as you have done, his ERA "drops" to 4.50.

 

Loe has not been effective this season. I'm not saying he can't be an effective pitcher if used correctly, but to say that he has been good in his "not horrible" outings is something you could say about almost every major league reliever.

My point is that people are acting like he doesn't belong on a major league roster. I disagree. I should have found a better way to show it(but it was 1am at the time) When he's used correctly he's a very effective pitcher(which RR has failed to do many times this year). To say he's "beyond awful" is just plain wrong. When he's not thrown in there 4 out of 5 days, he's a decent RP. Should he be the 8th inning guy? No. But I'm fine with him coming in the 6th or 7th every few days.

[monty57]

Haudricourt reported that yesterday Hawkins went into Roenicke's office to discuss his role. Latroy it appears wasn't real happy that he wasn't called upon in the 8th the night before to protect a 3 run lead. Roenicke said something about "trying to go with the hot hand" in choosing Estrada.

 

I love that attitude from Hawkins.

 

Apparently Braddock isn't the only one with sleep problems. How else does one explain Roenicke thinking Estrada's hand was hot after he's been getting rocked for a month now.

So Roenicke uses this to name Hawknis his "7th inning guy," because Loe has "been pretty good as the 8th inning guy."

 

Aaargh!