Is it too early to ask about the 2012 draft?

[CheezWizHed]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought if you had an extra picks you had extra money in your pool?

 

I'm pretty certain that is correct. Hereare the draft pools for each team. Notice that the Twins (with more draft picks than the Astros) have the highest pool. If it was only based on draft position, Houston would have the most.

 

If you go back a little further in this thread, I compared the cost of the Brewers' two first round picks (12 and 15) last year to the equivalent picks we have for next year (27, 28, 33).

 

We can give our 2012 2nd-10th round picks the same deal we gave our 2011 2nd-10th round picks (that is a raise because we draft 16 spots lower in each round). Then we would have ~$1.5M to give raises to our 27, 28, and 33 picks in the 1st round from those same picks in 2011.

 

Not sure if that exactly works out, but it should be pretty close to a logical raise for each. So I would conclude its based on draft picks AND position.

[jmeks23]

Thanks for posting that nate, was very interested to see the actual terms. Losing picks for over-slotting is a rough penalty but I guess it had to be done. I'm curious to see how teams will approach it.

[heresrobin]

A few questions on some of the college guys:

-Is Matthew Reckling-RHP-Rice an option with one of the Brewers first 3 picks? He's a Senior (potentially easier sign), pitching for a major program, with some nice strikeouts rates the last 2 years, who has also cut down on his walks by quite a bit from last year.

-Sort of in the same vein, but how about James Ramsey-OF-Florida St.? He's a Senior as well, bats from the left side, and has done nothing but hit the last 2 years with very good power.

-Has Deven Marrero's-SS-Arizona St. struggles at the plate this year bounced him out of the 1st round yet? Or is his defense that good and his bat that projectible that he remains worthy of a 1st round pick?

 

Depending on the answers to some of these questions, I'm curious if any of these guys are worth one of the Brewers first 3 picks.

[narwhalattack]

I don't think so for Maerrero and Recking. Reckling might come cheap but he doesn't have that great of a ceiling. Marrero has great defense but doesn't have much to offer with the bat. Sure the defense is nice, but some pop with the bat would be nice too. As for Ramsey, maybe as he has some pop with his bat. If the Brewers really want a safe pick, then there is a good chance that they'll pick Ramsey.

 

I do, however, hope that the Brewers go for high-ceiling guys rather than guys who are have mediocre ceilings but come cheaply.

[jmeks23]

I saw one mock draft with us taking Walker Weickel who they give a MLB comparison to Chris Carpenter (obviously comparisons are best case scenario). Does anyone know anything about him?

[narwhalattack]

Apparently Weickel has dropped in mocks because he has been highly inconsistent. His mechanics have been inconsistent and his velocity has been inconsistent as well. At his best he has a low 90s fastball with a decejt changeup and a slow low 70s curveball.

[heresrobin]

I think I may just be echoing the general consensus, but I'm just not super excited about any of the High School pitchers in this draft. When I look at various mocks and who I think is going to be available with the Brewers first 3 picks, I find myself leaning towards the High School bats (mostly OFs but a few nice IFs). I know that lines up with the Brewers organizational weaknesses, so I hope that is not influencing my leanings.

[narwhalattack]

You're right. The HS pitching by the time the Brewers pick isn't that great. Normally I'm all for the Brewers going for the HS arms, but this year I find myself leaning more towards HS bats. One pitcher that I am interested in, however, is Shane Watson. He has a low-90s fastball and has a lot of room to grow. And from what I've seen from a video, he seems to have a very good curveball.

[colbyjack]

I'm not sure where you got that report on Weickel, but it's not right. If anything has hurt him this spring it's that he has been consistent, just consistent to what he has shown in the past, at least last summer, as opposed to gaining velocity as his tall, projectable and athletic frame would suggest. He's been up to 94-95 and sits 90-93. Both his curveball and changeup are good secondary pitches, and he is learning to add velo to his curveball to get it up to a more acceptable velocity. When I saw him in mid-June last summer I heard one scout say after he threw a pretty impressive changeup, "that's what I came here to see," meaning, everyone knew about his FB/CB combo, and it was simply a matter of time before he refined his changeup.

 

Many think it is also a matter of time before he's throwing 93-95 more regularly peaking at 96/97.

[paul253]

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/huntcol_online23-j05h6cn-152854985.html

 

I really question how much the Journal Sentinel's Brewers writers actually know about the minor league system and the draft. Michael Hunt says it's "safe to assume" that the Brewers are going to use both of their first round picks on pitchers. While it's certainly possible, is he not aware of the absolute lack of hitters in the system?

[HiAndTight]

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/huntcol_online23-j05h6cn-152854985.html

 

I really question how much the Journal Sentinel's Brewers writers actually know about the minor league system and the draft. Michael Hunt says it's "safe to assume" that the Brewers are going to use both of their first round picks on pitchers. While it's certainly possible, is he not aware of the absolute lack of hitters in the system?

 

 

 

I've read some incredibly insightful reporting from the Journal Sentinel(and I swear if you're going to insult the paper, be more original than urinal sentinel) regarding the Packers, but when it comes to Brewers reporting, it's really truly terrible.

 

With the Packers, you get these in depth analysis of every single player they drafted. They do their homework. You think when the Brewers draft a guy in the 17th round(about equal to the 7th) like Scooter Gennett, we get a whole workup of how he was really a potential 1st round talent like we did with Daltko from FSU, the LT we drafted who dropped because of his shoulder?

 

No, you get a blurb that literally anyone on this message board could come on this board. Now most of this board is a bit over the top. The general readership of the MJS isn't going to care about Brooks Hall's line. They may know of or heard of a couple top picks and they'll forget about them until Rock mentions one on the broadcast.

 

But if you're going to pay a team of writers to write about a Major League Baseball franchise that's the smallest market by far in all of the league, that draws just extraordinarily well...3 million, and we ended last year around probably 3.5 or so with the playoffs and we're on pass to surpass last years totals....you'd think the paper would put in enough friggin energy to at least give a cursory glimpse into what we have in the farm system.

 

It's not hard. Look at who's starting. I'm not even asking them to do what they do for every one of the 30 undrafted Free Agents the Packers bring in where they get 3 scouts from the AFC or NFC and get their opinions and then evaluate them.

 

I'm just asking the guy to pop in "Brewers top prospects 2012."

 

I mean if this professional journalist REALLY wanted to put himself out there, he could pay for a BA subscription, or even just google "Jimmy Nelson scouting report," and along with his incredible peripherals(which I'm all but certain would suggest to Hunt that he'd be an execellent Quarterback because of his vision, but I digress) he would see that he throws 98 with the top slider in the system and a rapidly improving changeup and has the experts projecting him as a potential #2/3 workhorse type pitcher.

 

And then he could see that he ranked about 7th or 8th on our pitching prospect list.

 

Then he could take a look at the offensive prospects we have.

 

 

I know, I know, I'm asking WAY too much of Mr. Hunt. It's not like he's a paid professional and expected to at least have a modicum of the information regarding the Brewers that most on here do.

 

He's not stupid, just ignorant, and that's worse as a journalist IMO. In fact, that's the worst thing if you're a journalist.

[HiAndTight]

I'm not sure where you got that report on Weickel, but it's not right. If anything has hurt him this spring it's that he has been consistent, just consistent to what he has shown in the past, at least last summer, as opposed to gaining velocity as his tall, projectable and athletic frame would suggest. He's been up to 94-95 and sits 90-93. Both his curveball and changeup are good secondary pitches, and he is learning to add velo to his curveball to get it up to a more acceptable velocity. When I saw him in mid-June last summer I heard one scout say after he threw a pretty impressive changeup, "that's what I came here to see," meaning, everyone knew about his FB/CB combo, and it was simply a matter of time before he refined his changeup.

 

Many think it is also a matter of time before he's throwing 93-95 more regularly peaking at 96/97.

 

 

Colby, apologies if you've been asked this before, but with the new cap allotment, do you think we're going to see a little three year lull before the talent in the draft is up to par with more HS kids going pro, or do you expect that the HS kids who may have expected to get these massive signing bonuses will realize those bonus dollar aren't coming in 3 years either?

 

Do you see a much larger number of the amount of 1st round talent that goes unsigned, or that doesn't get drafted because of signability concerns?

 

For example, Rick Porcello...if he were in this draft, any chance he'd sign? He wouldn't have had a chance to make that much more in 3 years than he did as a HS'er if his scenario were played out in this years draft. Is that player now just off the board thereby the sorta three year lull that I mentioned where less HS kids are signing, opting for college, and then more college talent starts emerging in 2015?

 

Or will the difference be less noticeable? Again, apologies if you've already answered, but some of these threads have several hundred posts on them.

[colbyjack]

I do think it's going to take 2-3 years for the new rules to allow the dust to settle, although by then there could be new rules in place that completely change everything players are currently facing. You bring up some very good points, as a player heading to college may realize in 3 years that the money is the same, and that teams simply aren't allotted the financial resources that they may be willing to spend, but aren't allowed to.

 

If you look at recent history, almost every single player taken in the top 2-3 rounds signs. Yes, there are some players that sign for much higher than slot, such as Porcello, but again, the top players are going to sign. I don't think a team like the Tigers signs Porcello in that scenario, but you could see a team that has extra, early picks take a chance on someone like Porcello (such as Lucas Giolito this year) by getting creative with their other picks to leave some money to make something like that happen.

 

I do know that a lot of scouts are stressed out right now scrambling to determine players' signability, much more so than in past years. I had a conversation with an agent 2 weeks ago in which he told me that he has more scouts calling to ask the same signability questions over and over again, much more so than in past years. From the agents' (and players') perspective, why would they let this be known more than they need to, unless it's the rare player that simply wants to begin his pro career because the only thing he thinks and dreams about is playing baseball without much thought as to how much he's going to break the bank?

 

What you're really going to see less of is the players that break the bank past the top 2-3 rounds. No longer will you have Dillon Maples signing with the Cubs for $2.5 million, or whatever he signed for last year in the 13th or so rounds. A lot of northern players, a couple of prep pitchers from Michigan come to mind, who have early round aspirations and talent (if they were more recognized playing in a warmer state) are much more likely to head to college. Is this going to be cyclical, meaning, will it continue and will more college players be drafted early with more prep players heading to college? I think you'll see that scenario increase, but not as dramatically as some have predicted.

 

Don't be surprised if the new rules per the CBA change sooner rather than later. I think MLB took a step in the right direction with these, but it's too restrictive.