Is it too early to ask about the 2012 draft?

[sheetskout]

I hope we take at least one third basemen or shortstop with one of the first three picks.

 

Addison Russell should be there but I'm still not sure if we should risk either pick on a high-schooler.

[narwhalattack]

I hope we take at least one third basemen or shortstop with one of the first three picks.

 

Addison Russell should be there but I'm still not sure if we should risk either pick on a high-schooler.

 

 

I actually think the opposite, somewhat. Unless there is a college player that just absolutely cannot be passed on, such as if Kyle Zimmer is available, then the Brewers should draft high-upside HS players.

 

If I had a choice between drafting Nick Williams, Lucas Sims, and Addison Russell, or Brian Johnson, Kenny Diekroeger, and Michael Wacha, I would pick the former in a heartbeat. The college picks may come up to the majors sooner, but their ceiling is limited and at best they would be mediocre players, something the Brewers have plenty of right now. The HS players have a much higher ceiling and if they pan out, they could turn out to be excellent players.

[sheetskout]

If I had a choice between drafting Nick Williams, Lucas Sims, and Addison Russell, or Brian Johnson, Kenny Diekroeger, and Michael Wacha, I would pick the former in a heartbeat. The college picks may come up to the majors sooner, but their ceiling is limited and at best they would be mediocre players, something the Brewers have plenty of right now. The HS players have a much higher ceiling and if they pan out, they could turn out to be excellent players.

 

Except that Williams, Sims, and Russell will come in around 8 million total leaving virtually nothing for the next nine rounds of the draft. Obviously HS athletes generally have higher ceilings but they aren't stupid. They know this. And it's usually why HS players are more demanding in their wants to commit to professional baseball.

 

This isn't an issue of timing to the majors, it's a fiscal issue under the new collective bargaining agreement.

[TheCrew07]

Not all HS players are high ceiling, and truthfully I'm not partial where a talent comes from, just get me impact talent to follow...

 

I will say that the likely hood of an impact college player falling to the Brewer's first pick doesn't seem likely.

[narwhalattack]

If I had a choice between drafting Nick Williams, Lucas Sims, and Addison Russell, or Brian Johnson, Kenny Diekroeger, and Michael Wacha, I would pick the former in a heartbeat. The college picks may come up to the majors sooner, but their ceiling is limited and at best they would be mediocre players, something the Brewers have plenty of right now. The HS players have a much higher ceiling and if they pan out, they could turn out to be excellent players.

 

Except that Williams, Sims, and Russell will come in around 8 million total leaving virtually nothing for the next nine rounds of the draft. Obviously HS athletes generally have higher ceilings but they aren't stupid. They know this. And it's usually why HS players are more demanding in their wants to commit to professional baseball.

 

This isn't an issue of timing to the majors, it's a fiscal issue under the new collective bargaining agreement.

 

 

If you take a look at the White Sox farm system, you'll see that it's absolutely abysmal. There's a reason why it's abysmal; they have cared far too much about finances.

 

Sure, the Brewers have to be wary about draft budgets, but they shouldn't sacrifice great talent just because of finances. They shouldn't pick Wacha over Williams just because the former will be cheaper; that method is one of the best way to ruin a farm system pretty quickly.

 

The Brewers shouldn't pick mediocre talent over good talent just because of financial reasons. And just like what TheCrew said, it's pretty unlikely that good college talent will be available by the time the Brewers pick anyway.

 

Plus talents in 1st round > talents in later rounds.

[paul253]

I think what he was getting at is with this new collective bargaining agreement and the financial restrictions it puts on the draft, if you draft a bunch of of HS guys and pay them accordingly you will not have any room under this new contract to sign your remaining top 10 choices. It's not a matter of being willing to pay what it takes anyway. It's a matter of deciding which is more important, signing your top choices or signing most of your top 10 picks.

 

For what it's worth, I also don't think we should sacrifice talent in the first few rounds for the sake of money. I'd feel more comfortable signing our our first 4 picks this year (two 1st rounds, a supplemental, and a 2nd round) then maybe our first pick and then picks from the fourth-tenth rounds. I haven't thought much about the new rules, I just hope they don't prevent a lot of teams from being able to sign their picks.

 

That being said, I also don't think that HS players are automatically worth drafting ahead of college players. I think you need to specifically compare two players against each other, factor in the cost but only a little, and then decide which one you should take. I;d love Nick Williams and have no interest in Brian Johnson because I think we could use a third basemen but have plenty of first base/corner outfielder type players. However, I also wouldn't mind Diekroeger, assuming he hits like he did his freshmen year and the Brewers believe he can stick at shortstop.

[sheetskout]

Plus talents in 1st round > talents in later rounds.

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/11/23/2581637/major-league-baseball-cba-labor-agreement

 

We're not on the same page here. The above statement is like saying Milk has more calcium than water. You're arguing that first round talent is better than the rest of the draft. We're saying there are issues with affording the three first-round picks we have under the new CBA.

[TooLiveBrew]

Not all HS players are high ceiling, and truthfully I'm not partial where a talent comes from, just get me IMPACT TALENT to follow...

 

I will say that the likely hood of an impact college player falling to the Brewer's first pick doesn't seem likely.

You forgot the caps lock. I think we can all forgive you... this time.

[reillymcshane]

John Sickels has posted a Mock Draft that he and Matt Garrioch just did.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/3/5/2844620/2012-baseball-mock-draft

 

Here's the guys they picked for us:

 

27) Brewers (Matt): Thee Brewers have an improving system and with two first round picks back to back, they could get some impact. A player that reminds me some of their ace, Zach Greinke, is Clate Schmidt. He has a easy delivery with good command and very good stuff. I think he has been a little over-looked and the Brewers should be happy with him at 27. Clate Schmidt, RHP, Georgia HS

 

28) Brewers (John): Schmidt hasn't received as much attention as some guys, but I agree, he could easily shoot up draft boards this spring. I keep considering Courtney Hawkins, and it's time to pull the trigger on him with Milwaukee's next choice. He features tremendous power potential and the other tools are good, too, plus he adds a potential impact outfield bat to a system that needs one. Courtney Hawkins, OF, Texas HS.

[CheezWizHed]

a bunch of of HS guys and pay them accordingly

 

The only HS players that are disproportionately expensive are the ones are the ones with a strong college commitment. Covey was going to sign around the slot range prior to finding out he had diabetes.

 

The only thing I see the CBA changing on how the Brewers draft is the 15-19 round range where they grab guys like Gennett, who sign overslot. I don't see the Brewers changing their 1-10 round draft plans at all.

[sheetskout]

The only thing I see the CBA changing on how the Brewers draft is the 15-19 round range where they grab guys like Gennett, who sign overslot. I don't see the Brewers changing their 1-10 round draft plans at all.

 

Then you need to read the CBA again. The CBA directly impacts the first ten rounds with a negotiated pool of funds based on several factors. At this point, the Brewers will have roughly 6.7 million to sign their picks in the top-10 rounds. The Brewers spent more than 6.7 million through the first 10 rounds in the 2011 draft; and the prices aint' going down.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/02/2012-aggregate-bonus-pools/

 

The CBA, besides residual affects, has little to no impact on the 15-19 round range I believe.

[Baldkin]

Honest question from a non-draft geek:

 

With the new CBA being what it is, doesn't it take away a lot of the leverage these draft picks had, and force them to negotiate and sign earlier than they otherwise would?

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but couldn't a team suddenly be "out of money" to sign a pick if they signed a bunch of other guys? With the revenue cap as well, shouldn't they sign for less/slot money much more easily?

[CheezWizHed]

At this point, the Brewers will have roughly 6.7 million to sign their picks in the top-10 rounds. The Brewers spent more than 6.7 million through the first 10 rounds in the 2011 draft; and the prices aint' going down.

 

They also had picks #12 and 15 last year. They have #28 and #29 this year. They do add the supplemental 1st rounder they didn't have last year. But then balance that by having rounds 2-10 drop 14 spots in each round. You are comparing apples and oranges by simply stating their cap numbers...

2011:

#12: $2.525M

#15: $2M

 

#28: $1.134M

#29: $1.116M

#33: $936K

 

So that is a $4.525M vs. $3.186M difference right there.

 

The CBA, besides residual affects, has little to no impact on the 15-19 round range I believe.

 

Any pick outside round 10 that has their bonus go above $100k will have that applied to their top-10 round cap. Thus, that limits the Brewer's habit of grabbing a HS player with a strong college commitment and giving him 2-4th round money.

 

Then you need to read the CBA again.

Don't you hate when your own words come back to bite you like that?

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but couldn't a team suddenly be "out of money" to sign a pick if they signed a bunch of other guys?

Technically no. The penalty for exceeding the cap is a fine and/or loss of draft picks next year. So, its not a hard cap.

 

With the revenue cap as well, shouldn't they sign for less/slot money much more easily?

For slot money, yes, that is the general idea. But HS players might be more motivated to get a good college commitment for leverage. But still any leverage is reduced.

 

edit - added cap numbers for 2011 draft signings

[jmeks23]

Do we have any idea the types of fines/repercussions that will take place?

 

It seems to me if the fine is low and/or you only lose a lower round draft pick, then teams will just over-slot anyways. But if the fine's are high then that might make things unfair in general.

[CheezWizHed]

I found this: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-passan_cba_hgh_testing_draft_rules_112211

 

Significant penalties accompany teams that exceed their bonus pools. MLB will tax teams 75 percent for every dollar spent over the draft limit up to 5 percent. Between 5 and 10 percent, it’s 75 percent and a first-round pick the next season. From 10 to 15 percent, it’s a 100 percent tax and first- and second-round picks. And for those over 15 percent – which, for the Yankees, would be an extra $675,000 – the tax is 100 percent and the penalty two first-round picks. The international rules apply the same taxation rates and limit the worst derelicts to spending, at most, $250,000 on a player the next season.

 

But if the fine's are high then that might make things unfair in general.

 

I think it helps the Brewers actually. They rarely went overslot in rounds 1-10 anyway. So the chances of them being penalized are pretty minimal.

[narwhalattack]

Going back to what reilymcshane said about John Sickel's and Matt Garrioch's mock draft, I like the idea of the Brewers taking Clate Schmidt. He has a low-mid 90s fastball with a very good curveball and decent control. Sounds like if everything goes as planned he could be a very good #2 starter.

[narwhalattack]

Giolito has a sprained ulnar ligament and may be out for a while. How much does this affect his draft stock?

[nate82]

Giolito has a sprained ulnar ligament and may be out for a while. How much does this affect his draft stock?

 

I would say a lot as that ligament is in the elbow I believe?

 

From what I have read on that it is usually about 6 weeks or more of recovery and then some rehab after that. I would believe his draft stock would absolutely plummet with this injury.

[narwhalattack]

What if Giolito is available by the time the Brewers pick? Do they take a chance on him?

 

I was thinking if this was the case, they draft him #27, draft Clate Schmidt 28th(hoping that he signs somewhat close to slot, as he is under the radar) as a backup plan in case Giolito has more injuries in the future, and Adam Brett Walker in the supplemental.

 

Potentially very expensive and high-risk, high-reward type of draft then, but if everything works out maybe it could be worth it.

[sheetskout]

You are comparing apples and oranges by simply stating their cap numbers...

 

You are comparing apples to oranges as far as college talent vs. high school talent. High-school talent usually takes more to sign because of college commitment, or the tough ones are offered Major League deals (i.e. Porcello) You want Nick Williams? He's going to want more than it took to sign Bradley.

[CheezWizHed]

Some high school talent does, yes, but not all. The Brewers have rarely gone after someone that was going to require an over-slot signing in the first round, even without the draft salary cap in place.

 

Covey was going to sign for slot prior to his physical. Lawrie, Jeffress, Rogers... I don't recall any big $$ deal about signing any of them.

 

If Nick Williams wants $2M+ and will last until the #28 pick, the Brewers wouldn't draft him with or without the draft cap in place. I have no problem if you say they SHOULD go after those guys. But since they rarely do, the cap impact really helps them (preventing the Yanks or BoSox from over-slotting) more than it would hurt them, IMO.

 

The only over-slot signings the Brewers regularly attempted were the picks in rounds 15-19 (Gennett, Howell, McFarland, Jenkins, Bucci).

[YoungGeezy]

At the end of the day you take whoever you feel in your gut is the next star of your franchise. If they think Williams is the next Griffrey and is sitting there for you, take him. What good is it at all to say this kid is going to be a star but lets skip him for this less talented player because he is cheaper. If all is equal, the room is split then, and talent wise it is a toss up then fine let tag effect decison. New Cap rule is terrible, I must note that. More high school kids will turn down pros then ever before because teams just wont be able to pay

[TheCrew07]

Not all HS players are high ceiling, and truthfully I'm not partial where a talent comes from, just get me IMPACT TALENT to follow...

 

I will say that the likely hood of an impact college player falling to the Brewer's first pick doesn't seem likely.

You forgot the caps lock. I think we can all forgive you... this time.

 

Ha... it appears that post in the midst of supreme frustration will follow me around forever.

 

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought if you had an extra picks you had extra money in your pool? It wouldn't make sense to penalize Milwaukee for losing Fielder by forcing them to pay 2 more players with the same pool of money as they would have had with no extra picks.

 

As someone already pointed out the Brewers have aggressively pursued HS players with strong college commitments in the past, which is why the total spend in some years has been over the current limit. I still think this whole thing is stupid... if you're going to slot the draft then fine, but make players declare for the draft and eliminate the leverage of a kid going to play college ball. If the young man fails to make an impact keep the standard scholarship offer as part of the professional contract, that way the players still have something to fall back on. If I knew I had college paid for either way I'd probably opt to go pro and see if I cut the mustard, there's really no downside. There would be no incentive to wait until the signing deadline to get contracts done in that scenario. For everything baseball gets right, they also get something horribly wrong.

 

I'm not willing to make definitive doom's day scenario predictions until i see how this actually plays out.

[TooLiveBrew]

Not all HS players are high ceiling, and truthfully I'm not partial where a talent comes from, just get me IMPACT TALENT to follow...

 

I will say that the likely hood of an impact college player falling to the Brewer's first pick doesn't seem likely.

You forgot the caps lock. I think we can all forgive you... this time.

 

Ha... it appears that post in the midst of supreme frustration will follow me around forever.

Well, I think I'm about the only one who still posts about it... so I'll stop

 

I just always chuckle a little whenever I read a post from you, anytime after you'd made the ORIGINAL POST, so that's why I haven't been able to let it go.

[nate82]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought if you had an extra picks you had extra money in your pool? It wouldn't make sense to penalize Milwaukee for losing Fielder by forcing them to pay 2 more players with the same pool of money as they would have had with no extra picks.

 

Not sure if this helps or not but the CBA says this:

 

e. Rule 4 Draft

1. The draft will continue to be conducted in June, but the signing deadline will be moved

to a date between July 12 and July 18 depending on the date of the All-Star Game.

2. Drafted players may only sign Minor League contracts.

3. Signing Bonus Pools

A. Each Club will be assigned an aggregate Signing Bonus Pool prior to each draft.

For the purpose of calculating the Signing Bonus Pools, each pick in the first 10

rounds of the draft has been assigned a value. (These values will grow each year

with the rate of growth of industry revenue.) A Club’s Signing Bonus Pool equals

the sum of the values of that Club’s selections in the first 10 rounds of the draft.

Players selected after the 10th round do not count against a Club’s Signing

Bonus Pool if they receive bonuses up to $100,000. Any amounts paid in excess

of $100,000 will count against the Pool.

B. Clubs that exceed their Signing Bonus Pools will be subject to penalties as

follows:

Excess of Pool Penalty (Tax on Overage/Draft Picks)

• 0-5% 75% tax on overage

• 5-10% 75% tax on overage and loss of 1st round pick

• 10-15% 100% tax on overage and loss of 1st and 2nd round picks

• 15%+ 100% tax on overage and loss of 1st round picks in next two drafts

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/downloads/2011_CBA.pdf

 

The one thing I question here is that it only states the signing bonus. Couldn't a team give a player a larger than normal minor league contract instead of them giving the player a large signing bonus?