Is it too early to ask about the 2012 draft?

[CheezWizHed]

1st round compensation picks since 2000:

 

NYY: 11

BOS: 13

MIL: 5

PIT: 1

KC: 1

MN: 8

 

Part of that is drafting for sure. But I would wager at least part of NYY's and BOS's totals include players they signed signed as FA, then allowed to leave in FA for picks. I'm not sure how to find that information.

[sheetskout]

1st round compensation picks since 2000:

 

NYY: 11

BOS: 13

MIL: 5

PIT: 1

KC: 1

MN: 8

 

Part of that is drafting for sure. But I would wager at least part of NYY's and BOS's totals include players they signed signed as FA, then allowed to leave in FA for picks. I'm not sure how to find that information.

Larger market teams would tend to lose type-A free agents replacing them with another (such as in the case with Victor Martinez or Adrian Beltre with the Red Sox). They are also more apt to let first round picks go unsigned (such as with Gerrit Cole for the Yankees) knowing they can replace that talent later. The type-A rankings released by Elias were also a lot looser than they were under the new CBA as well making players like Tom Gordon and Luis Vizcaino whom the Yankees let walk compensation-eligible free-agents.

The case-in-point for the Yankees was the 2004 season where they had compensatory picks after losing Paul Quantrill, David Wells, and yes, Andy Pettite. The same Andy Pettite whom they brought back a couple of seasons later. They also had three compensatory picks in 2001.

[CheezWizHed]

Yes, exactly. The new system doesn't level the playing field, but it limits the field at least (for comp picks). I'm sure in 10 years, NY and Boston will have more comp picks than the Brewers, KC or Pitt, but there should be fewer overall. Plus the Brewers will have a bigger field of players to try to sign in FA, since fewer will require them to give up the first either (which we just can't afford to do).

 

I'll say it loud and proud until MLB fixes the system, that the NFL compensation system is better, since it takes into account both losing and signing of FA. Signing a big FA negates losing one and you aren't compensated for it.

[Bnowell4evr]

Yes, exactly. The new system doesn't level the playing field, but it limits the field at least (for comp picks). I'm sure in 10 years, NY and Boston will have more comp picks than the Brewers, KC or Pitt, but there should be fewer overall. Plus the Brewers will have a bigger field of players to try to sign in FA, since fewer will require them to give up the first either (which we just can't afford to do).

 

I'll say it loud and proud until MLB fixes the system, that the NFL compensation system is better, since it takes into account both losing and signing of FA. Signing a big FA negates losing one and you aren't compensated for it.

I disagree about the NFL comp system being better. The best pick we would've gotten for losing Prince would be at the end of the 3rd round and it would've only been 1 pick instead of 2.

[narwhalattack]

Pitchers I want the Brewers to draft:

 

Lucas Sims- A fastball that can touch the upper 90s with a very good curveball along with a changeup that could become an above-average pitch in the future seems pretty tough to ignore.

 

Hunter Virant- Could have 3 above average pitches in the future and has tons of room to grow and add velocity. From a video I watched, it seems as though the slider/curveball and the changeup flashes some great potential.

 

Kyle Zimmer- Very good fastball/curveball combination. Most excited about the curveball. Changeup doesn't seem all that bad from what I've read.

 

Position players I want the Brewers to draft:

 

Trey Williams- Has the bat to hit for average and power, and could provide solid defense at the hot corner as well. Could be drafted well ahead of the Brewers' picks, but he's been falling in the recent mocks so hopefully there's a sliver of hope that he will be available by the time the Brewers pick.

 

Nick Williams- Very raw, but has tons of potential; a potential 5-tool player. Also has been falling in mocks, possibly because he's so raw.

 

Courtney Hawkins- Another OF with solid tools across the board. It is more plausible that he's gonna be around when the Brewers pick than with both the Williams's.

 

Lewis Brinson- Solid tools across the board, has been compared to Cameron Maybin. Seems plausible that he's gonna be around when the Brewers pick.

[CheezWizHed]

I disagree about the NFL comp system being better. The best pick we would've gotten for losing Prince would be at the end of the 3rd round and it would've only been 1 pick instead of 2.

 

You take things rather literal, don't you? My point about the NFL system is that take into account all FA moves, then give out compensation. Not that it has to be at the end of the 3rd round...

[JackNicholson1974]

If they draft this Gallo kid and he makes it to the big leagues I am going to have a field day with that name.

[sheetskout]

Another mock I saw the other day had Stanford's SS Kenny Diekroeger going to us. I think this makes the most sense right now for one of the two picks. We're thin on middle infield offense and he'd be relatively easy to sign.

 

I still see more and more HS picks falling and would highly expect the Brewers to go one college pitcher, one college hitter.

[narwhalattack]

I'm thinking of different scenarios to how the Brewers' draft would go.

 

Scenario 1:

#27- Nick Williams

#28- Lucas Sims

#39- Kyle Zimmer

 

Scenario 2:

#27- Kyle Zimmer

#28- Lewis Brinson

#39- Kenny Diekroeger

 

Could be different combination of either/both

 

I see the Brewers drafting more HS players than college players with their first 3 picks, because there's an abundance of HS players and a lack of good college players. Good players that should be within the Brewers range are Kenny Diekroeger, Kyle Zimmer, Stephen Piscotty, and maybe Adam Brett-Walker. On the HS side, however, there's Lewis Brinson, Lucas Sims, Nick Williams, Ty Hensley, Duane Underwood, Rio Ruiz, Clate Schmidt, and more. While there's not much choice in terms of college talent, there's plenty to choose from with the HS talent.

[colbyjack]

One area I think teams with extra picks could really get creative is using some of that extra money to go a little bigger and target a player that has fallen farther than they should have due to money. There have been instances before where a player thought to be an early pick throws out a big number, but ends up signing for a smaller number, still higher than slot, when taken later in the draft.

 

The Brewers are at an advantage with the new system and two extra picks in that they could combine #27 and #28 and selected and sign a player for over $3M, and still get a comp pick if they are unable to sign whoever they take with that other pick (a pick that is protected now for the two draft years that follow, not just one). Combine the money projected for the first three picks and you have over $4.5M to spend.

 

It's a quality over quantity approach, and one that would have been just a few $100K short of landing someone like Josh Bell a year ago. Obviously you can't sign whoever the heck you want to like you could before, but again, it is one area teams with extra picks have an advantage.

[paul253]

I don't follow college baseball much and I don't pay much attention to draft prospects until about a month or so before the draft. I was wondering if someone could comment on how likely it is that the following players would fall to the Brewers picks at 27 and 28.

 

Kenny Diekroeger SS Stanford

Victor Roache OF Georgia Southern

Stephen Piscotty 3B Stanford

Michael Wacha RHP Texas AM

Trey Williams 3B HS

Max Fried LHP HS

 

Just comparing this to the Baseball America top 100 if we can walk away with Diekroeger and Williams/Piscotty I'll be very happy.

[narwhalattack]

Wacha, Diekroeger, and Piscotty should be available by the time the Brewers draft. But Wacha is more of a #3 or #4 starter and the Brewers have plenty of those in the minors right now. Do not want. Diekroeger has a lot to prove and might have to move to 3B, but doesn't have the bat to make much of an impact there. Also do not want. Roache is a likely top 15 pick with tremendous power. Fried is a likely top 15 pick as well. Trey Williams is dropping in recent mocks so I guess there is a sliver of hope, but if he does well he may be out of the Brewers' reach.

 

Piscotty I wouldn't mind as a pick.

 

I'm actually hoping for some of N. Williams, T. Williams, Lucas Sims, Kyle Zimmer, Stephen Piscotty, Courtney Hawkins, Edwin Diaz.

[sheetskout]

One area I think teams with extra picks could really get creative is using some of that extra money to go a little bigger and target a player that has fallen farther than they should have due to money. There have been instances before where a player thought to be an early pick throws out a big number, but ends up signing for a smaller number, still higher than slot, when taken later in the draft.

 

The Brewers are at an advantage with the new system and two extra picks in that they could combine #27 and #28 and selected and sign a player for over $3M, and still get a comp pick if they are unable to sign whoever they take with that other pick (a pick that is protected now for the two draft years that follow, not just one). Combine the money projected for the first three picks and you have over $4.5M to spend.

 

It's a quality over quantity approach, and one that would have been just a few $100K short of landing someone like Josh Bell a year ago. Obviously you can't sign whoever the heck you want to like you could before, but again, it is one area teams with extra picks have an advantage.

 

If it means anything to you Haudricourt told me that the Brewers would probably sign their top two selections at the expense of the rest of the draft. Take it with a grain of salt or not....

[narwhalattack]

One area I think teams with extra picks could really get creative is using some of that extra money to go a little bigger and target a player that has fallen farther than they should have due to money. There have been instances before where a player thought to be an early pick throws out a big number, but ends up signing for a smaller number, still higher than slot, when taken later in the draft.

 

The Brewers are at an advantage with the new system and two extra picks in that they could combine #27 and #28 and selected and sign a player for over $3M, and still get a comp pick if they are unable to sign whoever they take with that other pick (a pick that is protected now for the two draft years that follow, not just one). Combine the money projected for the first three picks and you have over $4.5M to spend.

 

It's a quality over quantity approach, and one that would have been just a few $100K short of landing someone like Josh Bell a year ago. Obviously you can't sign whoever the heck you want to like you could before, but again, it is one area teams with extra picks have an advantage.

 

If it means anything to you Haudricourt told me that the Brewers would probably sign their top two selections at the expense of the rest of the draft. Take it with a grain of salt or not....

 

 

Well the Brewers do have close to 7mil to spend on draft picks. I guess that covers roughly the first 5 rounds at the least.

[colbyjack]

I think Piscotty is going to do enough between now and June to make himself not available. Of that group, I think Diekroeger will be there for sure (he's not a SS, and he doesn't hit enough for 3B) and Roache could too if he doesn't come close to matching his 2011 numbers when he hit 30 HRs. I'm just really skeptical about his swing and approach.

 

Wacha may not be an ace, but his track record speaks for itself, and teams always draft those types of pitchers early. Fried's going to be gone among the top 5-7 picks, unless he's serious about going to UCLA. Trey Williams likely will be gone somewhere in picks 10-20.

 

And the way Zimmer pitched in his first start of the year on Friday, in which he was 94-98 in the early innings, he could find himself being long gone by the time the Brewers pick.

 

If it means anything to you Haudricourt told me that the Brewers would probably sign their top two selections at the expense of the rest of the draft. Take it with a grain of salt or not....

 

That's encouraging, and was the exact premise of what I was proposing. If you could pluck away a couple of the prep kids that fall for $3-$3.5M each that could be one heck of a draft. They need to infuse the system with some impact players, especially hitters.

[narwhalattack]

One thing I noticed was that ever since 2002, the Brewers have been drafting high school players in the first round the year after drafting college players in the first round, and vice-versa. Interesting pattern...

[paul253]

Is it a given that Diekroeger can't play shortstop? Some of the scouting reports I've read suggest he could at least be an average fielding shortstop. I know average fielding isn't exactly what you are looking for in a shortstop but if he can hit like he did his freshman year his value would certainly go up. And I think shortstops are one thing you can't have enough of in the system. Milwaukee has replenished that position a little bit lately but McFarland and Rivera are a LONG ways away and far from sure things. If he falls to #38 do you jump on him?

[nate82]

Of that group, I think Diekroeger will be there for sure (he's not a SS, and he doesn't hit enough for 3B)

 

Wouldn't moving him to 2B be more optimal than 3B? I would think that he would be moved to 2B rather than 3B as his hitting skills would translate better there than at 3B. Defensively I think it would be a wash if he was at 2B rather than at 3B (haven't seen Diekroeger play so only guessing here).

 

The only thing I am hoping for the Brewers to do in this draft is to somehow get an impact bat either it be from the college ranks or a high school player. I would prefer multiple impact bat guys but that maybe just me being in more of a fantasy world in that idea.

[colbyjack]

Paul, I'm more skeptical than most with Diekroeger. I've seen him play several times over the last 3 years and I'm not sold on him sticking at SS. I know I'm not alone, but yes, I'm sure there are others that would keep him there. The A's stuck with Grant Green at SS for as long as they did.

 

I think he's a better fit for 3B than 2B, although I don't think he offers an impact bat no matter what position he plays. I think his teammate Piscotty does though, which is part of the reason I don't think he'll slide to the Brewers pick(s).

 

McFarland isn't a SS long-term either IMO. I like him a lot, but more as a 2B/3B (3B is probably where he fits in best).

[paul253]

Apparently Victor Roache just broke his wrist and may miss the entire season. This will definitely hurt his draft status. Is he around at #38 now and if so do we take a chance on him?

[bball123h]

The Brewers are at an advantage with the new system and two extra picks in that they could combine #27 and #28 and selected and sign a player for over $3M, and still get a comp pick if they are unable to sign whoever they take with that other pick (a pick that is protected now for the two draft years that follow, not just one). Combine the money projected for the first three picks and you have over $4.5M to spend.

 

Unfortunately, if you don't sign a pick in the top 10 rounds, that slotted value is excluded from your overall pool, so that wouldn't work. You'd still end up over cap. Now, you could negotiate a cheap deal for one of those picks, and use the savings on the other, but you need to actually sign that slot for their money to be available.

[colbyjack]

Ah yes, thanks bball, I forgot about that very key point, one of my least favorite rules of the new CBA. I still think it's a scenario we're going to see come June/July.

[Nader Raider Tim]

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2012/02/the-mock-volume-ii/

 

Mock Draft just thought I would pass it on.

[Mudville9]

All high school bats for MIL. Although, its way too early it will be fun to keep an eye on these three and see how they move up and down the board.

[paul253]

I hope we take at least one third basemen or shortstop with one of the first three picks.