Is it too early to ask about the 2012 draft?

[narwhalattack]

I definitely hope that the Brewers don't become too gung-ho about the "polish-first" method.

[sheetskout]

People need to remember it's going to me MUCH harder to draft over slot, and much harder to get compensation for multiple picks in the future under the revised CBA. Fans may want us to go out and draft HS hitters but this may not be safe. This is why you will see top high-school talent such as Gavin Cecchini, Addison Russell, and others start to decline in mock drafts as this settles in. The stronger the college commitments get for these kids the harder it will be to sign them as it's more difficult to go over slot now.

 

This is not a friendly situation to a small-market club and a system that I am highly against. But the Brewers can't afford to miss early round signings if they want to remain competitive in the short term; which is sadly why I see them signing college offense in the 2012 draft.

[colbyjack]

I think you guys are giving mock drafts a little too much credit http://www.ezboard.com/intl/aenglish/images/emoticons/smile.gif.

 

The fact remains that most early round picks end up signing, and I don't see the new CBA affecting that too much. It definitely helps the college game. How much obviously remains to be seen, but the players that want to play are still going to sign. I don't think that point can be overstated.

 

For a team like the Brewers, how does this hurt them? They never really went over slot anyway, aside from signing a handful of late picks like Scooter Gennett, Del Howell and Chris McFarland for early-ish round money. No teams will be able to make those type of picks/signings anymore, so that part of the draft has been leveled to an even playing field. The Cubs can't go out and sign players like Dillon Maples for $2.5M despite being taken in the 'teens, and the Reds can't hand Amir Garrett $1M as a pick in the 20s.

 

Also, the Brewers couldn't afford to miss on early round picks for pretty much their entire existence, which is why they sucked through the 90s and early part of the 2000s and have flourished more recently. They are aided next year by having a larger draft pool for the comp picks for Fielder, so they could be a little creative with how they spend that money.

[jmeks23]

I realize I could read up on this a little more and get the answer, but I'll just ask here. I thought the new draft system gave you a certain limit on what you can spend in the draft and if you go over that limit, that's when restrictions start applying. Am I wrong about that?

 

IE: Couldn't you over slot a couple players so long as you stayed below the threshold?

[colbyjack]

Yes, each team will be assigned a draft pool based on the picks they have in the top 10 rounds. If that pool is $4 million, they could give $3 million to one guys and sign the other 9 for roughly $100K each if they wanted to.

 

Any pick after round 10 can sign for up to $100K without counting against that pool.

[Bnowell4evr]

Colby

I'm wondering what you think about Joey Gallo? I'm intrigued by his LH power.

Edit - Did a search and saw you said he's a Branyon clone.

[sheetskout]

Yes, each team will be assigned a draft pool based on the picks they have in the top 10 rounds. If that pool is $4 million, they could give $3 million to one guys and sign the other 9 for roughly $100K each if they wanted to.

 

Any pick after round 10 can sign for up to $100K without counting against that pool.

Josh Bell went for more than that as a prime example of someone who already fell (under the old agreement) because of signability and commitment. Signing over-slot will be more difficult than ever, especially for a small-market team. I don't put anymore credit than you do regarding mock drafts, but there's a reason that HS talents tend to be falling in them.

[colbyjack]

I'm wondering what you think about Joey Gallo? I'm intrigued by his LH power.

 

Edit - Did a search and saw you said he's a Branyon clone.

 

Don't take that as a bad thing. Gallo has incredible power. Great extension in his swing, and like Branyan he doesn't get cheated, meaning he's going to whiff a lot. His power jumps to all fields. Adam Dunn could be another similar comp for Gallo.

 

Josh Bell went for more than that as a prime example of someone who already fell (under the old agreement) because of signability and commitment. Signing over-slot will be more difficult than ever, especially for a small-market team.

 

First of all, I don't see why this is a concern from the perspective of a Brewers fan. They never would have gone out and made a pick like the Pirates did for Bell last year. Yes, signing over-slot will be more difficult, but why is it especially more difficult for a small-market team to go over slot now? That doesn't make any sense to me, unless you mean to say it makes it more difficult for small market teams like the Pirates to build through the draft by throwing a lot of money at players.

 

As for the mock drafts, I was mostly joking, but I honestly didn't know there were any worth reading right now to have a sense of who people thought would fall. Just because fans think that doesn't mean scouts and front office execs do too.

[sheetskout]

Yes, signing over-slot will be more difficult, but why is it especially more difficult for a small-market team to go over slot now? That doesn't make any sense to me, unless you mean to say it makes it more difficult for small market teams like the Pirates to build through the draft by throwing a lot of money at players.

Because a small-market team will have to pass up on high-level HS talent for the mere risk that they won't be able to sign them. Large-market clubs have the resources to cushion the impact from failing to sign top-round talents (by adding via other means; international markets, free agency, etc). Take last year for example. Should there be a situation such as in 2011 where compensation was received (such as for Covey) and we have two high first-round picks under this agreement it would make it extremely difficult to sign both with the draft pool allotted. Should we sign both and punt the other rounds?

My bet is that your going to see more of this situation. Teams awarded a high first-round compensatory pick (in addition to their existing pick) will most certainly have to have a "budget pick" contained within the pair. Only the deemed "cant miss" HS talent are going to get bonuses over slot (The Bundy's, The Bradley's, The Starlings). The Josh Bell's (the Brandon Nimmo's, the Taylor Guerreri's) of the world....they are going to go to college.

[paul253]

BA posted a top 100 prospects list on their website if anyone is interested.

 

http://www.baseballameric...review/2012/2612884.html

[sheetskout]

The Brewers alotted 7.5 million in signing bonuses in 2011 and generally rate in the middle of the pack when it comes to their willingness to spend money in the draft. The average signing for an offensive HS player in the bottom of the 1st round is around 2.5million. The problem is we have two first rounders, a supplemental, and the entire rest of the draft to go. I just don't see the Brewers drafting two HS players risking their signability whilst paying them 50-70 percent of the draft budget to do so.

 

This issue would have been more amplified if the picks were higher in the first round as well. In a way we're sort of lucky after all that the Blue Jays or the Mariners didn't sign Prince. (Imagine having to pay one of the two picks 5-6 million to sign)

 

 

http://www.baseballameric...draft/category/signings/

[colbyjack]

Because a small-market team will have to pass up on high-level HS talent for the mere risk that they won't be able to sign them. Large-market clubs have the resources to cushion the impact from failing to sign top-round talents (by adding via other means; international markets, free agency, etc). Take last year for example. Should there be a situation such as in 2011 where compensation was received (such as for Covey) and we have two high first-round picks under this agreement it would make it extremely difficult to sign both with the draft pool allotted. Should we sign both and punt the other rounds?

 

I'm sorry sheetskout, but the new CBA isn't going to drastically change the way teams approach the draft, at least not the way you have outlined it. Everyone involved will know not only what teams have to spend, but what each slot's monetary value is. While I'm sure we'll see a few extra high schoolers go to college, it's important to remember that most early picks in the last several years end up signing.

 

And the international market is going to have a similar signing bonus pool in the next year or two.

 

I've seen a handful of people get bent out of shape about the new CBA, and most of the people/scouts/scouting directors I have talked to about it don't expect the changes to be that drastic.

[narwhalattack]

I was browsing through a forum site and I found that someone had commented about Ty Hensley:

 

"Great observations, but I have to tell you I see Ty Hensley going way higher then 50 something...up until last weekend wasn't so sure. Had my doubts on pitchability. I watched the kid throw a weekend ago at a showcase event. He has lost 20lbs of baby fat and has changed his body completely, showed a NASTY ch which I had never seen before and I have been watching him for 3 years, and a 12-6 downer. His coach said he hit 98 on the gun the week before...he isn't the same kid I watched on TV this summer...just saying. His father was also a Card. I am routing for him to be our 1st pick at 23. Yeah I'm an Okie...but if he does what I saw he was capable of last weekend he will prove himself worthy. "

 

 

 

If this is true, then he seems like a very interesting pick. But since I haven't heard much else about Hensley I don't know the legitimacy of this report.

[sheetskout]

I'm sorry sheetskout, but the new CBA isn't going to drastically change the way teams approach the draft, at least not the way you have outlined it. Everyone involved will know not only what teams have to spend, but what each slot's monetary value is. While I'm sure we'll see a few extra high schoolers go to college, it's important to remember that most early picks in the last several years end up signing.

 

And the international market is going to have a similar signing bonus pool in the next year or two.

 

I've seen a handful of people get bent out of shape about the new CBA, and most of the people/scouts/scouting directors I have talked to about it don't expect the changes to be that drastic.

You can apologize to me all you want, but I'm not really sure I'm in the minority here...

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/2012/2612723.html

"

"I think it will make a difference; you're no longer going to be able to sign players after top rounds," one National League crosschecker said via text message. "Teams with the philosophy to spend and accept risks no longer benefit, and it hurts small-market clubs who choose to develop (their) organization through (the) draft. "

http://www.yaledailynews.com/news/2011/dec/01/new-cba-will-spell-misery-for-small-market-teams/

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/10571/mlbs-new-cba-is-no-help-to-small-market-clubs

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/did-a-steinbrenner-write-the-new-cba/

http://communityvoices.sites.post-gazette.com/index.php/sports/bob-smiziks-blog/30919-all-but-unanimous-new-cba-spells-bad-news-for-small-markets

http://juicedsportsblog.com/2011/11/breaking-down-new-mlb-cba-and-why-it-actually-hurts-small-market-teams.html

And we've mentioned virtually nothing regarding the tax system for teams going over slot. You really think this doesn't impact Small Market teams worse?

 

[narwhalattack]

Even with the new CBA, the big-market teams can suffice by signing star free agents while the small market teams can't. Also, since the FA compensation has been further restricted, such as the raise in the arbitration requirements, the small market teams probably won't be able to take their chances on offering arbitration to an impending FA. The new CBA seems to be heavily leaning towards big-market teams. More dominance by the likes of the Yankees, Phillies, Angels, and Red Sox, I suppose.

[sheetskout]

Exactly!

 

To Baseball America's Jim Callis:

 

"Jim … Perhaps it's simply too early on a Saturday morning … but is the $185mm per team or the total for all 30 teams?

 

Although there are exceptions, the rather draconian changes by Seligdorf to the draft appear to hurt the smaller market teams most. The Rays, KC, Bucs, Nats (for instance) have been big players … drafting wisely and often allows them a "competitive edge" given their inability to compete with bigger markets for FAs. (Werth exception noted). It seems odd to me that MLB is being so punitive in "punishing" clubs with good scouting resources and the willingness to allocate dollars over slot for players both in the MLB and Intl Draft.

What appears to be the "unintended consequence" is ML teams being "forced" to overpay for mediocre (Capuano – $10/2yrs or "aging" talent Bell, age 34 – $27/3yrs). The other obvious consequence is losing prospects (Szczur, Harper, Maples) to college and/or other sports, reducing the pool of talent … both MLB and Intl."

[colbyjack]

I think you're arguing your point without reading a word I'm saying. This is what I said above:

 

Yes, signing over-slot will be more difficult, but why is it especially more difficult for a small-market team to go over slot now? That doesn't make any sense to me, unless you mean to say it makes it more difficult for small market teams like the Pirates to build through the draft by throwing a lot of money at players.

 

The quotes you supplied basically supported what I was trying to say, instead of answering the question for yourself. My overlying point is that the new CBA isn't going to hurt small market teams as a whole. It's going to hurt small market teams (and any team for that matter) that have shown a willingness to spend big money through the draft. That's a big difference that needs to be clarified given the point you're trying to argue.

 

And as an example of how it probably won't change too much, the Toronto Blue Jays the past two years amidst all of their extra, early picks spent $9 million on the players they took within the top 10 rounds. Do you know what their alloted draft pool will be for all of their picks in the top 10 rounds next year, which includes their compensatory selections? $9 million.

 

You also forgot to supply these quotes from Callis' story as linked above:

 

Ten weeks later, scouting directors contacted by Baseball America weren't nearly as pessimistic. The AL director doesn't anticipate that significantly fewer top prepsters will turn pro.

 

"Everyone slams the door and says all the high school kids are going to college," the AL scouting director said. "I'm still confident. The guys who want to play pro ball will sign. Will they take less money? I still believe we'll get the same type of players but pay them less. At the end of the day, they want us if they want to play Major League Baseball."

 

A second NL scouting director agrees, to a point. He believes it will take a year for clubs, agents and players to adjust to a new reality.

 

"I think it's going to take us a couple or three years to get there," the second NL director said. "This group this June isn't sure what's going to happen yet. Some of these high school kids this year are going to be difficult after the first couple of rounds. We'll have to see how it unfolds."

 

I think that's pretty much what I've been saying.

[narwhalattack]

By the way, what's the alloted draft pool for the Brewers?

[colbyjack]

I mentioned this earlier in this thread, but the Brewers draft pool should be around $7.5 million.

 

Also, since Joey Gallo's name was recently brought up, who I comp'd to Russell Branyan, PG's National Scouting Director David Rawnsley will have Gallo's draft profile up on PG's homepage tomorrow morning, and he made a comparison of Gallo to Troy Glaus.

[Bnowell4evr]

I mentioned this earlier in this thread, but the Brewers draft pool should be around $7.5 million.

 

Also, since Joey Gallo's name was recently brought up, who I comp'd to Russell Branyan, PG's National Scouting Director David Rawnsley will have Gallo's draft profile up on PG's homepage tomorrow morning, and he made a comparison of Gallo to Troy Glaus.

Interesting comparison with Troy Glaus. I assume the scouts think Gallo might be able to stick at 3rd? It would be a shame for his arm to go to waste playing 1st.

[RyDogg66]

Colby

I'm wondering what you think about Joey Gallo? I'm intrigued by his LH power.

Edit - Did a search and saw you said he's a Branyon clone.

 

 

 

Did you say Gallo? Gallo with a G? Jerry Gallo's dead!

[narwhalattack]

Still 4 months 'til the draft. I need moar mocks!!!

 

Currently hoping for 2 position players and 1 HS pitcher.

[HiAndTight]

Still 4 months 'til the draft. I need moar mocks!!!

 

Currently hoping for 2 position players and 1 HS pitcher.

 

Agreed 100 pct. I'd love to get Piscotty with our Supp pick, and someone along the lines of Keon Barnum, or a Jesse Winkler type guy. A couple guys with high upsides who could be impact position players, and Kyle Zimmer is incredibly intriguing to me. Not overly a fan of San Fran after Fredrickson, but he's going to be 20 this year, is 6'8 and can throw in the upper 90's with sink to it and a potential plus hammer to go with it.

 

Though with it being so far away, obviously everything is up in the air. Those guys could all end up going top 20, or all dropping to the 2nd.

[narwhalattack]

Recently Trey Williams have been falling in mocks. I would absolutely be ecstatic if the Brewers manage to draft him. Also, Zimmer is 6'3, not 6'8.

[CheezWizHed]

In a way we're sort of lucky after all that the Blue Jays or the Mariners didn't sign Prince. (Imagine having to pay one of the two picks 5-6 million to sign)

 

Yeah, that would suck to have a chance to draft higher quality players. I know what you are trying to get at, but come on... some problems are good to have.

 

Even with the new CBA, the big-market teams can suffice by signing star

free agents while the small market teams can't.

The new CBA didn't change that. Same as before.

 

Also, since the FA

compensation has been further restricted, such as the raise in the

arbitration requirements, the small market teams probably won't be able

to take their chances on offering arbitration to an impending FA.

Again, I don't think that will change much. Remember all the discussions on whether we should offer arbitration on Player X (Cameron, KROD, etc..)? How many times did someone crow: Boy, if we were the Yankees, we could offer arby easily, because we could play a fringe A ranked player $13M. The only difference now is the monetary level we have to offer is a known quantity rather than a guess arbitration number. But again, being easier to offer that amount hasn't changed. Deep pockets always have always made it easier to offer bigger contracts.

 

The

new CBA seems to be heavily leaning towards big-market teams. More

dominance by the likes of the Yankees, Phillies, Angels, and Red Sox, I

suppose.

The main change I see happening with the new CBA is that there are less supplemental draft picks handed out. And maybe I'm wrong, but it seems that the larger market teams got more of those picks anyway. So we will see less of the Yankees, Bosox, LA, etc... getting draft picks inserted between rounds and pushing down everyone else's 2nd round picks.

 

I see that as a bonus for small market teams.