Is it too early to ask about the 2012 draft?

[CheezWizHed]

Its highly unlikely that we offer Hawkins arby even if he pitches "lights-out" the rest of the season. He is making $7M (if memory serves) this year. With being on the injured list for all of last year and 1/4 of this year, no way he gets any offers over that much. He would be a fool to decline arby, which would guarantee him >$5M in a worst case scenario and more like $7-8M or more in a realistic arby case.

 

Saito is making far less and wouldn't be nearly the risk despite his age. But I still doubt he is offered arby.

[Mass Haas]

Hawkins is making $7M (if memory serves) this year.

His base is $4M, still too much to consider arbitration.

[battlekow]

What about Saito? Is there any chance he can rebound and become a type B?

Saito contractually cannot be offered arbitration.

[CheezWizHed]

Hawkins is making $7M (if memory serves) this year.

His base is $4M, still too much to consider arbitration.

One of these days, I'll remember not to trust my memory. But I keep forgetting...

[colbyjack]

If you would like to chat about the 2012 draft, PG scouting director David Rawnsley, college guru Kendall Rogers and myself will be talking about the top prospects for next year in a chat that starts at noon tomorrow. Rawnsley and myself put the early odds on something historical happening with the No. 1 overall pick. Visit the Perfect Game homepage tomorrow for linkage.

[colbyjack]

Here's the link to the chat room for today's 2012 draft chat, which starts at noon CST:

 

http://www.perfectgame.or...s/View.aspx?article=6253

[CheezWizHed]

Ok, so most probably we will have 6 picks in the first two rounds of the 2012 draft. Does anyone know how this draft look depth-wise? (CJ, I tried reading the draft chat, but work firewall blocks it)

[narwhalattack]

The Brewers potentially have 5 picks, not 6 (2 from Fielder, 2 from K-Rod, 1 original). And this time around the draft seems to have a plethora of HS players.

[YoungGeezy]

The Brewers potentially have 5 picks, not 6 (2 from Fielder, 2 from K-Rod, 1 original). And this time around the draft seems to have a plethora of HS players.

We have 6....can't forget our 2nd round pick as well

[narwhalattack]

Ah, I didn't read carefully. Didn't realize that you said the first TWO rounds.

[CheezWizHed]

Yeah, I used "two rounds", since one of Prince's could become a 2nd round pick if the Mariners or Cubs sign him. Come on Washington!

[colbyjack]

CheezWizHead, the high school ranks have the potential to be special, but the college ranks look a little thin. Stanford's Mark Appel is typically considered the top prospect, but he has a lot to prove in the spring. We at PG currently have Lucas Giolito, a prep RHP, as the No. 1 player for next year's draft, but no HS RHP has ever gone 1st overall.

 

http://www.perfectgame.or...s/View.aspx?article=6293

 

It is a good year for both high school pitchers and outfielders. There are some really good, natural hitters such as Alex Bregman and Jesse Winker that may be around late in the 1st round, and yes, I think the Brewers need to get some more potential impact bats in their system after pursuing pitchers so heavily each of the last 3 years.

 

One thing I find interesting is the fact that Bruce Seid has shifted the Brewers focus to college players during his time as the team's scouting director. Some of that may be coming from Melvin and Ash, who are on record around the time Zduriencik left and Seid took over that the team would look to draft more players closer to contributing at the big-league level, not only to move them quickly, but so to speed up their value as trade commodities. They did of course take Covey with their 1st-round pick in 2010, so it's not like they're avoiding prep players.

[CheezWizHed]

Thanks for the followup colbyjack. So it sounds like overall, the depth sound average? Seid seems to be doing a decent job in drafting. This will be a big year for him.

[narwhalattack]

One player I'm interested in that the Brewers could get later in the 1st round or in the supplemental round is Kyle Zimmer. He seems to have a good fastball that reaches 97 and backs it up with a power curve.

 

If the Brewers get the pick from Washington from Fielder, I would hope that Walker Weickel would fall to the Brewers at pick #16, but if he doesn't, then Joey Gallo or Lucas Sims would do as well.

[colbyjack]

Kyle Zimmer would definitely fit the mold of the type of big-bodied, power arm Seid and his staff have shown a preference for.

 

I'm a big fan of Weickel. Great size, pitchability, and he keeps getting better. Sims has a loose power arm, and Gallo reminds me an awful lot of a young Russell Branyan. Good size, big LH swing, and crazy power everywhere. Watch Gallo take BP and you'll see that one bomb rockets out to RF, the next to LCF, the next to straight-away CF, etc.

 

David Dahl and Courtney Hawkins are the best players in the 2012 draft class that no one is talking about. Dahl is a 6.5 runner with a 95 arm from the OF that also shows great bat speed, while Hawkins blew up this summer as a hitter, and whatever scouts he hadn't wooed over by October he did at our World Championship. Of course that means neither is probably available past the top 10-15 picks, but you never know.

 

Boom or bust picks go to Nick Williams and Byron Buxton. The sky's the limit for both, but both are pretty raw in almost all aspects. Williams' upside offensively is greater than Buxton, who is a much better baserunner and defender.

 

Jesse Winker gets the Jay Bruce/Derek Fisher comp from me, although he is more of a Paul O'Neil type of hitter and overall player with very good defensive tools in RF and a willingness to drive the ball to the gap in LCF as a LH hitter. Bregman has an incredible idea of what he's doing at the plate, and consistently hits the ball hard. He's a lot like Brett Lawrie in that he's played SS and C and may be tried at 2B or 3B, but is likely destined for LF where he still could hit plenty enough to earn his keep.

 

There are some intriguing shortstops too. Carlos Correa is a darkhorse to go No. 1 overall, while Gavin Cecchini has great range at the position and enough at the plate to lead you to believe there is more to come.

 

Some 2-way guys include Tanner Rahier, who has more present-day pop than Cecchini at SS and a cannon for an arm. Carson Kelly is another 2-way guy that shows great hitting and pitching mechanics. Most like him better as a hitter, but I really liked what I saw of him on the mound. Rio Ruiz draws a lot of comparisons to Eric Chavez as a SoCal LH hitting 3B with a sweet swing, strong arm and slick glove.

 

And if prep LHP Max Fried somehow makes it to whatever pick the Brewers may have, take him. Inconsistent right now, but a loose arm, projectable frame and a plus-plus big-league curveball when he's snapping it off as well as he can.

 

Some college guys I like that could be in the Brewers wheelhouse include RHP Chris Beck (big-bodied, good stuff, advanced change/command), Josh Conway (live-armed 2-way guy who has some Tim Hudson to him), 3B Stephen Piscotty (great idea at plate, consistently hits ball hard a la Ryan Zimmerman at same stage, although D' is nowhere as good) and OFs Travis Jankowski (leadoff type with good speed, live drive bat), Brandon Thomas (similar to Jankowski) and Jeremy Baltz (good discipline, strong, muscular build, impressive power potential).

[narwhalattack]

Which would you rather draft: Albert Almora or Nick Williams?

[colbyjack]

Almora is the better all around player, but Nick Williams' ceiling offensively is pretty incredible. He's drawn some Griffey comps (for his bat only), and one person I work with has compared his approach/stance/swing to Barry Bonds. There's obviously a lot that needs to happen for him to come close to matching that productivity, but that's the kind of upside he has. He isn't a very instinctive player defensively or on the basepaths, and doesn't seem to show much interest in those aspects of the game, so there is some personal roadblocks for him achieving his potential.

[colbyjack]

I'll be updating the draft order and I've also outlined how the new CBA will impact the draft here:

 

http://www.perfectgame.or...s/View.aspx?article=6410

 

The Brewers have pick #28 and will have pick #38 for Prince Fielder. Some of the teams believed to be interested in Prince include the Nationals (16th overall), Blue Jays (17th) and Rangers (29th). Should the Mariners, Cubs or Orioles sign him, the Brewers would get their second-rounder. The Brewers shouldn't have to worry about a Sabathia-type situation getting a pick bumped back one round later since the Angels signed the only free agent rated higher than Prince (Pujols).

 

With a move to the AL -- and the Brewers just played the AL East this past year -- and the 2nd highest pick possible, allow me to say go Blue Jays!

[CheezWizHed]

The Brewers shouldn't have to worry about a Sabathia-type situation getting a pick bumped back one round later since the Angels signed the only free agent rated higher than Prince (Pujols).

 

I don't know... they need a DH, don't they? (A pox on my head for even mentioning it...)

 

Any pick taken after the 10th round can sign for up to $100,000 and not count towards the pre-determined draft pool.

So that might hinder the Brewer's normal attempts to grab guys in the 15-20th round range and sign them to 2-3rd round deals. First draft and follow and now this...

 

Also, why does the supplemental pick for Cuddyer, Bell, etc... all come before Pujols and Fielder? And why do the Padres' get the Marlin's second round pick for Reyes?

[narwhalattack]

One player that interests me is Lewis Brinson. He seems to have the potential to have solid tools across the board, but is still very raw. Seems like a good high-risk, high-reward type of player.

[igor67]

I know there has been a huge wringing of hands by some sabermetrics folks at these drafts changes and the damage to small market teams. I remain skeptical. If the talent pool remains the same, the more rigorous system of price controls pretty much has to keep the price of drafting players constant. The only alternative for these guys to get a bigger payday is to leave for a different sport! And I can't for one see that as a major threat. The only sport that has a somewhat consistent history of competing for talent is football, and even there the number of significant players who have done both seems pretty small to me. Nevertheless overtime it could be an issue. Speaking as the parent of a football player in high school and football fan, don't you think the longer we finally have realistic conversations about the quality of life post NFL that this will more than counter balance any perceived difference in economics? If you can do both, you do baseball have a healthier longer life. I'm sure there are people who will make different decisions, but when you are fighting over that second and third million these have to become very significant issues for a lot of people.

[colbyjack]

Also, why does the supplemental pick for Cuddyer, Bell, etc... all come before Pujols and Fielder? And why do the Padres' get the Marlin's second round pick for Reyes?

 

It still needs to be determined if compensation picks for Type A and modified Type A free agents will be distributed in order as opposed to lumped together. I have them lumped together for now, as the team with the worst record from 2011 would get the first pick for losing a Type A free agent. Since the Twins finished with the 2nd worst record in all of baseball, they go first in the sandwich round.

 

The Marlins signed Heath Bell before the new CBA was announced, and under the old rules the Padres would have received the Marlins' third-round pick, since the Marlins also signed a higher-ranked Type A free agent, Jose Reyes. With the new rules Heath Bell was classified as a modified Type A free agent, and MLB decided that the Marlins would not give up a pick, but the Padres would receive a pick just before the Marlins' 2nd round pick. That remains to be the same even after the Marlins gave up their 2nd rounder to the Mets for Reyes, as it's pretty much a unique instance given the rule changes.

 

Lewis Brinson has drawn some comparisons to Dexter Fowler, which is about as solid of a comp for any player.

[DHonks]

Colby, my understanding was that the modified Type A picks would come before the 1st round pick, not 2nd round pick. So I thought there was a possibility KRod could have landed us better picks than Fielder...was I reading this wrong? I never once saw a mention of the modified Type A's picks being in the 2nd round

[colbyjack]

Heath Bell's pick comes before the Marlins' 2nd round pick since their 1st-round pick was protected. Plus, MLB basically came out and said that is the pick the Padres would get for Bell.

 

I need to check out the rest of them, as there are still some big questions that need to be answered.

EDIT: I forgot I had this point in that story about the compensation for modified Type A free agents:

Teams will not lose a draft pick when signing any of these players, but the teams that lose the players will receive compensation comparable to what they received under the old draft rules.

So it is still dependent on where or not the signing team's 1st rounder is protected in the first round and whether or not they sign any other Type A free agents.

Also the order has been updated with a few recent signees that I missed over the holidays.

http://www.perfectgame.or...s/View.aspx?article=6410

[colbyjack]

Also, via MLBTR and Buster Olney, reports indicate that the Cubs may still be in on Fielder despite acquisition of Rizzo. I'm not so sure I buy that, but Olney also notes that the Mariners may be more willing to give Fielder the years and money he's looking for, and it may just be a matter of Fielder choosing to go to Seattle.

 

Of course that is terrible scenario for the Brewers when it comes to draft picks, which would be the third pick in the second round, a pick in the 60s should all the comp picks fall in place as they could (see link above).

 

And Puerto Rican SS Carlos Correa just threw 97 across the infield from our PG World Showcase currently being conducted in Fort Myers, Fla. Lance McCullers has the all-time PG event record at 98, but that was with 3 crow hops at last June's National Showcase. Correa's 97, via PG's Twitter (retweeted on mine if you follow me), was as smooth and easy as they come. He set the set at the World last year with 93.

 

http://twitter.com/#!/PerfectGameUSA