Ideas to afford Prince Fielder

[adambr2]

Fielder would be taking an enormous risk to take another 1 year deal, even at $30M. He's having a big contract year which was exactly what Boras and Prince wanted. It would be unprecedented for him to take a 1 year deal now, especially as a Boras client.

[adambr2]

Too bad we couldn't sneak him down to AAA for 6 weeks ala JJ Hardy 2009 to buy an extra year. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

 

He's got 5 years service time now I believe so the veterans consent rule comes into play and he could refuse it. Would have worked last year. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[rluzinski]

The Brewers could afford Fielder now. They would just have the contract more backloaded towards 2014-2017. I issue is that they probably don't WANT to sign Prince for what he wants.

[Roderick]

I do think the TV/Radio revenue should increase as long as they keep winning and have legitimate stars like Prince.

I doubt that the TV/radio revenue is tied to wins or viewership to a great extent once the contract is set. I think they redid the FSN contract a couple of years ago. So I wouldn't expect any great revenue increases from those local sources.

[Warning Track Power]

I really believe it is a matter of competitiveness and how the Brewers can maxmize their ability to be competitive. If this were the NBA or NFL, Prince would undoubtedly be going nowhere...ever, which makes me really upset because HOF players, like I fully expect Prince to be, don't come to any team often. However, this alone can't be the decision to re-sign him while working within the current parameters of baseball's financial structure.

 

The most obvious reason to me as to why the Brewers cannot and should not sign Prince long term unless a large hometown discount is given are the 2009 and 2010 seasons. Prince's monster 2009 coupled with Braun's 2009 (arguably his best overall season to date) could do nothing to overcome the bad to mediocre rotation of Yo, Bush, Looper, Suppan and Parra. If Prince were to re-sign for the mega deal he will get, the Brewers will likely have to fill the rotation with prospects such as Parra, journeyman like Looper and innings eater like Suppan. This isn't an indictment on Parra, Looper or Suppan specifically but more about the type of seasons we would likely have to see because the money, in all likelihood, wouldn't be there to be able to afford pitching period.

 

Going back to the original post, I do not think that there is anything that can or should be done differently to afford Prince. Because of the reasons above, it will not matter if we can figure out a financial structure to afford Prince because the economics of the baseball do not provide the Brewers the ability to fill out the rest of the team with the quality SP required to win in MLB. 2009 and 2010 showed me all I need to know about having amazing hitting while not having quality pitching. It equals .500 at best. Give me a re-signed Greinke and Marcum, which may cost close to equal per year to what Prince is seeking, and a not so potent offense minus Prince and I will take my chances. Eventually the fans will approve the loss of Fielder if it means more 2008 type seasons and less 2009, 2010 seasons. It will pain me greatly to see Prince go because him and Braun SHOULD be this generations Yount and Molitor, 2 HOFs playing a majority of their career in Milwaukee, but that was a different time and different economic structure.

[jeffy]

Give me a re-signed Greinke and Marcum, which may cost close to equal per year to what Prince is seeking, and a not so potent offense minus Prince and I will take my chances.

 

I'd rather have the pitching too.

 

Greike already supposedly passed on $100 million extension to come here instead of Washington, he may only want to stay if the Brewers can remain a contender after 2012.

 

They will lose some offense in going from Prince to (presumably) Gamel, but they will gain a little bit on defense to offset some of that. I have to agree that going from Grienke and Marcum and Yo to Yo and mediocrity would be a much greater loss.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I see the term 'hometown discount' thrown around a lot when people start talking about re-signing key players. (Not just here, everywhere). As someone else said, you don't hire Scott Boras as your agent if 'hometown discount' is part of your vocabulary.

 

The deal Braun signed is extraordinary. How many guys do that though. Braun, Tulo.......a few others. There's not many guys LIKE Braun. That's why he's such a special player. Fielder has never, ever struck me as a guy who's interested in 'home town discounts' for the sake of sticking on a small to mid market team that has an occasional window of opportunity to contend.

[rluzinski]

Braun's first deal certainly had a home town discount. I don't think the second one did, though.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Braun's first deal certainly had a home town discount. I don't think the second one did, though.

It may end up being a slight discount for some of the years if he keeps performing. It really was just a commitment to the organization, and that is what is really rare about it. Players don't usually commit themselves to an organization for their entire career.

[Ennder]

Going to the World Series almost always jumps attendance the next year as well. Both the Giants and Rangers are among the leaders for most increased fans per game on the year.

[owbc]

The Brewers have actually made tremendous progress in that they no longer need to pay a "Milwaukee premium" to get free agents to sign here. Because of the success, high attendance, and good clubhouse atmosphere over the past ~5 years, players will now sign here for market value.

 

Prince shouldn't have to take a hometown discount and it is not right for the Brewers to even expect that. But he does not necessarily have to go to the highest bidder either. If the Brewers' offer is within $10 million or has one year less than less desirable team, you could still argue that the Brewers offer is the best, all things considered.

 

Consider that Prince is offered 6 years, $150 million to stay in Milwaukee, vs. 6 years, $160 million or 7 years, $170 million to play in Baltimore or Washington DC. Is the extra few million dollars really worth it? The best hope to afford Fielder is for Pujols to sign with St. Louis and for financial problems to keep the Cubs, Mets, and Dodgers off the bargaining table. There are only a handful of other teams that can afford him and the price will be much lower. Ultimately I think one of the financially strapped teams like the Cubs or Mets will get him anyway in an attempt to bolster ticket sales--but the Brewers have a chance, especially if they win the NL and get additional revenue.

[PrinceEatMeat]

If the Brewers offer Prince a 6 year $150 million deal they are out of their minds. This organization can't afford to pay one player $25 million a year, especially in the later years when Braun's contract escalates. We need to commit that $25 million to Marcum and Greinke. I love Prince just as much as the next guy, and probably more actually, but it just isn't realistic to keep him around at the price he will command on the open market. I don't see any chance of it happening.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I honestly don't want any part of Fielder beyond a 5 year deal, and since he'll get more than that.........

 

Guys with Fielder's body type just don't age well. I can't imagine paying him 22 mil or more per year in his age 33-34 seasons when he'll likely start to show sharp decline.

[Yeti73]

The Orioles, Cubs, Tigers, Marlins, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Rangers and Nationals all are breaching debt covenants of the league. I know some of these are now back in compliance, but how can they be permitted (or consider it a good business decision) to go out and bid on these premium FAs?

 

No way we keep him. It just isn't the type of deal that a small market team can afford to do without crippling itself for future years. Love prince, but this is like CC and I'm not going to delude myself into thinking that he'll stay because he loves his teammates and the city.

[jjfanec]

I just hope it is a team that has a decent year that signs him that way we get an extra pick in the bottom of the first round. 3 picks in the first round and supplemental round would help the farm system out a lot. I think Prince is a very good player and would love to keep him but dont think we will or even should with the price he will demand. Prince will have to be one of the top 3 free agents out there this year. I am not sure how the rankings work but we should be all but guaranteed a couple very good picks for Prince. I know it is not the like the NFL draft where guys immediately come in and help but with being a middle market team we need some young talent in our system

[bill hAll Star]

Would it be possible to frontload a deal where he's making ~25-30 million over the first 3 years and then declining with a player option? So basically he can make a ton of money and if he's still dominating at 30 years old he can opt out and try to sign a different huge deal? Then whomever else we sign long term we can try to backload or something? Obviously this may not work but just thinking out loud.

2012: $30 million

2013: $35 million

2014: $25 million

2015: $20 million Can opt out

2016: $20 million Can opt out

2017: $15 million Can opt out

Basically give him Wolf's money after 2012 to satisfy the total dollar amount.

That would put us at probably $90 million without adding anything next year and a few arby raises.

Also, I'm not sure if there are any rules regarding incline/decline on contracts.

The idea is that we push back a few more years of our "window" (I realize we have to worry about pitching after 2012 (if we're all still alive)). Hopefully by 2015, either Prince opts out and officially leaves but our next farm wave is ready to start a new build or if Prince is dead contract weight because of some injury, we're playing a few guys scattered around the field on the rookie 500K.

[Warning Track Power]

Would it be possible to frontload a deal where he's making ~25-30 million over the first 3 years and then declining with a player option? So basically he can make a ton of money and if he's still dominating at 30 years old he can opt out and try to sign a different huge deal? Then whomever else we sign long term we can try to backload or something? Obviously this may not work but just thinking out loud.

2012: $30 million

2013: $35 million

2014: $25 million

2015: $20 million Can opt out

2016: $20 million Can opt out

2017: $15 million Can opt out

 

This is excellent thinking. This is a contract for 7 years at $145 million or close to what Prince will likely get. I'd be ok with a 3 year $90MM guarantee where he can opt out after 2014 because we will likely still be getting by with some cheaper talent in the bullpen (Braddock, Axford, McClendons of the world) and the positions where we have cheaper talent now (C with Lucroy, 3B with McGehee/Gamel, Gomez/Morgan or maybe Komatsu/Schafer in CF) will just be getting expensive. I don't know if this will preclude us from re-signing Greinke and Marcum and that would be my only fear, but if it truly is about getting the money for Prince/Boras, what better way than Prince being able to say he has the highest one year salary in MLB history at $30MM? Prince will be going into his age 31 season in 2015 and would still likely command a contract around $20MM a season for 5ish years.

 

This might work...

[Funketown]

The above contract has the Brewers spending $90 million in 3 years on Prince. That's Pujols money, albeit on a shorter term. Prince is a great hitter, but he is not even one of the 15-20 best position players in the game right now. Let some other team waste that kind of cash on Fielder.

[topper09er]

Prince is a great hitter, but he is not even one of the 15-20 best position players in the game right now.

Right now Prince is 13th in WAR for all of MLB, 7th in the NL.

[topper09er]

We should tell Boras if Prince signs a 5 year 100MM contract we'll let his son be our utility infielder/mop up pitcher in blowout losses next year

[bill hAll Star]

The above contract has the Brewers spending $90 million in 3 years on Prince. That's Pujols money, albeit on a shorter term. Prince is a great hitter, but he is not even one of the 15-20 best position players in the game right now. Let some other team waste that kind of cash on Fielder.

Other than just losing out on Greinke/Marcum (which may happen no matter what: Greinke too expensive, Marcum too expensive/worried about his long-term abilities), what would be the big deal though?

I'd assume you'd be fine paying $15-20 million per year for Prince, right?

If your options were:

A. Prince walks but saved money signs Greinke/Marcum

B. Prince stays for above contract and we can't sign anybody else

C. Hypothetical Prince for $15-20 and we use the extra $10 million on a serviceable SS and fill-in for Wolf

D. Prince walks and we can't use the money for anything of major value (spent completely on Wolf-type contracts of OK players that are overpaid).

Some people would argue they'd prefer A

People would be fine with B with some arguments about $ paid

C does not exist, but if it did, you'd have to have to have good options with that excess cash to argue it to me.

D would stink, but we have some cash to spend, then.

What I'm saying is, I don't see a ton out there next year that would warrant having an extra $10 million to throw around. We may need bullpen help and our ability to fill-in at SS will be risky, but if we did this, I'd move Gamel to RF and deal Hart for a similarly paid SS with moderate abilities like Hart.

We may be real close to our cap of what we want to spend, but if Doug doesn't waste a few hundred Ks here and there to buy the Reeds, Kotsays, and Nieveses of the world, we could maybe throw our small remaining cash into some risky moves to fill our bullpen out.

What I'm saying is, the extra $10 million over value is not my money, and would be the "fee" for keeping him here. It wouldn't cripple the franchise long-term unless he got injured severely during year 1 or something.

Your other options would be to use the extra money to fill in random holes with probably overpaying some free agents that wouldn't be up to Prince's par.

Of course, if that saved money from not signing Prince got Marcum and/or Greinke, then I'd be OK with it.

[Funketown]

Prince is a great hitter, but he is not even one of the 15-20 best position players in the game right now.

Right now Prince is 13th in WAR for all of MLB, 7th in the NL.

It's not really fair just to look at this season for Prince though, is it? Since 2007, he's 24th in the majors in WAR. Since 2008, he's 28th.

[Warning Track Power]

If your options were:

A. Prince walks but saved money signs Greinke/Marcum

B. Prince stays for above contract and we can't sign anybody else

C. Hypothetical Prince for $15-20 and we use the extra $10 million on a serviceable SS and fill-in for Wolf

D. Prince walks and we can't use the money for anything of major value (spent completely on Wolf-type contracts of OK players that are overpaid).

If Prince walks and Greinke and Marcum also walk I will be extraordinarily disappointed. I think it is likely that finances can afford Prince/Marcum or Greinke/Marcum. I think the real choice will come down to Greinke or Fielder. But scenario D puts the Brewers right back into 2009/2010 mode

[topper09er]

Prince is a great hitter, but he is not even one of the 15-20 best position players in the game right now.

Right now Prince is 13th in WAR for all of MLB, 7th in the NL.

It's not really fair just to look at this season for Prince though, is it? Since 2007, he's 24th in the majors in WAR. Since 2008, he's 28th.

[adambr2]

I'm also a little concerned about Prince's inconsistencies when deciding on a long-term deal. He's alternated between outstanding years (1.013 OPS in 2007, 1.014 OPS in 2009, .995 OPS in 2011), and nice years (.830 OPS in 2006, .879 OPS in 2008, .872 OPS in 2010). The latter are very respectable years, but for a slow, defensively deficient first baseman, not worth the contract that he will command.

 

I don't think it's a coincidence that he's putting up a great 2011 in a contract year, and once he gets that long-term deal, I fully expect him to relax a bit and possibly a down year next season.