So.....it's June. How about some promotions?

[paul253]

Tyler Thornburg and Austin Ross to BC anyone? Khris Davis and Hunter Morris to Huntsville? Komatsu to Nashville? How much success do guys who are too old for their league need to have before they move up?

[Mass Haas]

You certainly won't see the Wisconsin roster tampered with until after the first-half playoff chase.

[YoungGeezy]

July at earliest as Mass noted. Right now I don't see enough guys as it is who have earned a promotion. Komatsu I think they will keep in AA all season, Schafer could if he gets hot by July but AAA has plenty of OF's right now. Khris Davis and Hunter Morris all are deserving but Morris is blocked by Halton and Davis I think they will wait until someone moves up to AAA. I hope Thorny and Ross can get bumped up sooner than later but just don't see it happening until July. Nichols is not what you would call an aggressive director.

[CheezWizHed]

I can see Komatsu in AAA before Schafer. The only CFer at AAA is Boggs. Yes, Komatsu isn't a "true" CFer, but I'd still like to see him spend more time there (seems like I've said that before. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif. I'm certain Schafer will spend the rest of the year at AA. He really hasn't spend much time there prior to this year.

 

Unfortunately, we seem to be jamming up the pipe with 1B/LFer types (Morris, BK, KhDavis, Halton, etc...) and the 1B-only types like Morris are really stuck. I don't think he will move up this year.

 

Pitchers are easier, since we don't have 5 starting pitching prospects anywhere to block guys from moving up.

[heresrobin]

I like Hunter Morris's power, but 2 things bug me about him:

-He doesn't walk (only 7 BBs this year), so I question his plate recognition and future OBP skills

-He has 11 errors this year at 1B - that seems like a lot

 

For those two reasons, I don't really think of him as much of a prospect right now. In my mind, Khris Davis is probably the Brewers best 1B prospect as well as their best corner outfield prospect.

[Kricket755]

I like Hunter Morris's power, but 2 things bug me about him:

-He doesn't walk (only 7 BBs this year), so I question his plate recognition and future OBP skills

-He has 11 errors this year at 1B - that seems like a lot

 

For those two reasons, I don't really think of him as much of a prospect right now. In my mind, Khris Davis is probably the Brewers best 1B prospect as well as their best corner outfield prospect.

I think Hunter started out the year playing 3rd base, so I think that accounts partially for the high error total.

 

 

[paul253]

You certainly won't see the Wisconsin roster tampered with until after the first-half playoff chase.

With all due respect to the Rattlers, I very much disagree with that strategy. Thornburg is an organizational top 5 prospect now and we are holding him back so our low A ball team can try to make the playoffs?

Nichols is not what you would call an aggressive director.


I agree with this but I do not like it. It seems like the organization has been taking some pretty big steps backwards since Jack Z. Left. The drafts have been overly heavy on college guys and it seems like a lot of them could be classified as either reaches or guys with low ceilings who don't really project to go very far. Not that loading up on college guys is necessarily a bad thing, but you can't load on college guys AND be slow to promote them. Look at the guys Wisconsin has been using to start games this year. Thornburg, Ross, Miller, and Nelson are all 22. Howell is 23. Even Brooks Hall, who was drafted out of high school is about to turn 21 and just made it to low A ball. Your A-ball roster shouldn't be filled with a bunch of 22 and 23 year olds. Thornburg should have been promoted weeks ago in my opinion. What does a 22 year old dominating a bunch of 18 and 19 year olds prove? If he isn't talented enough to make it to the majors, I'd prefer to know it in 2012 than in 2015 when he finally hits Triple A.

[Mass Haas]

What does a 22 year old dominating a bunch of 18 and 19 year olds prove?

You may be surprised to see just how few 18 and 19 year olds are in the Midwest League. 20 and 21 year olds, I'll grant you that.

[TheCrew07]

It's no secret that I'm no fan of Reid Nichols and never have been, but I don't get all the griping about promotions. Yes we all want to see how these guys fair at AA to find out how legit they are, but there's something to be said for refining your game at a level where you *know* you can still have success. For example, if I'm a pitcher working on change up, and I have to throw a set amount per game, I can throw a pitch I might not have confidence in because I know my other stuff is good enough to get the hitter out anyway. I wouldn't want that pitcher going up against AA competition wasting a pitch he wasn't comfortable throwing yet because he has throw X number to get his work in. By the time they get to AA I want them to be comfortable throwing their pitches even if the pitch is still a work in progress.

 

Ross hasn't pitched well in 4 out of his last 5 games, what has he done lately to earn a promotion? As I said previously Thornburg is the true prospect on that team, and it's more important that he's healthy and pitching than what level he's pitching at.

 

As you advance the hitters will just ambush your FB if you can't locate your secondary pitches, so I see no point in pushing someone if their secondary stuff isn't ready for the challenge. Let them dominate where they are while they continue to refine those pitches. Sometimes it stinks waiting 2 years for someone like Odorizzi to get out of rookie ball, but I'm not sure how any of us can make a legitimate argument that Jake hasn't been better off spending the extra year in R ball.

 

I'm alright pushing hitters aggressively if their defense is relatively polished, but pitching wise if he's not ready to handle the next the level you're probably doing more harm than good.

 

My gut feeling is that Lee Tunnell is pulling the strings pitching wise and I have a great amount of respect for the work he's done with our young pitchers, so in this case I'll happily defer to his judgement. This is nothing like having Brantley DH all those years or any of that other position nonsense that's gone on. This is about learning to command your FB, then your 2nd pitch, then your 3rd, then control the running game, and so on. A couple of years ago Tunnell laid out the pitching progression the organization has in place, I think it was a Helena interview. The plan was well thought out, very logical, and much like we teach fundamental progressions in football, so I was pleased. If pitching is a 30 step process (and it's not, but stay with me) it doesn't make any sense to focus on step 25 if the athlete hasn't mastered a basic step like step 5.

 

Again I understand why people want to push players, I even want to know how legit they are, I completely understand the theory behind aggressively promoting young athletes. The flip side however, is that's not how the fundamentals of the game are best taught, and if our MLB team has taught us anything, the recent experience has proven that's it's very difficult to instill those fundamentals the closer the players get to the big leagues, or at MLB. It doesn't matter if we're talking about fielding or base running, regardless of the manager and coaches, our MLB teams haven't been fundamentally sound in any aspect of the game.

[paul253]

I understand your point Crew. But the reason I am so upset with the Thornburg/Ross issue is because they are so old. Both will be 23 before the season is over I believe (or not soon after, something like that). If this was a 19 or 20 year old having this much success, I wouldn't be as irritated by it. As far as the working on pitches, I get that too. But at some point you're going to have to figure out whether or not the pitch is progressing by using it against better competition. I don't know if that's the case with Ross or Thornburg but I just don't feel like there's any more reason to keep them at low A ball. Let's say they are working on a change....they can't do that in BC? The hitters in BC are just so much better than they won't be able to work on a pitch in A+ ball? I'm not sure I believe that.

Ross hasn't pitched well in 4 out of his last 5 games, what has he done lately to earn a promotion?

 

Even though his ERA is almost twice that of Thornburg now it is still under 3 and his secondary numbers are mostly equal to that of Thornburg. His WHIP is just a shade lower, he has fewer walks in more innings, K rate is about the same and has only given up 1 home run in 61 innings. His last start was bad, but two of those other four you mention really weren't too terrible. One he gave up 3 runs in 6 innings with 9 K's and the other he gave up 3 runs in 5 2/3 innings with 5 K's. I'm not suggesting that he's our new #1 prospect and a front line starter. I'm just saying....he's a little old for his league and he's having success. What's the harm in moving him up sooner rather than later?

and if our MLB team has taught us anything, the recent experience has

proven that's it's very difficult to instill those fundamentals the

closer the players get to the big leagues, or at MLB.

 

But hasn't the recent experience also taught us that the Brewers really care more about offense than fundamentals? I understand the need to play good D and I really wish everyone on the team could, but when has someone been held back to work on defense? Promotions are almost always based on offense. Weeks, Fielder, Lawrie, Hart, Lucroy, Braun....they've all been like that. In the case of Komatsu; he's actually struggled lately (.131 in his last 10 games). But he is still putting the ball in play (only 4 K's in 31 at bats) and his overall numbers are still really good. For instance a .400 OBP and a 25:18 walk to strikeout ratio. What is he going to learn in Huntsville that he can't learn in Nashville?

[TheCrew07]

There's no doubt the Brewers care more about offensive progression than anything else, but you'd be hard pressed to get me to agree that they aren't missing opportunity to provide better value to the MLB team.

 

I'll use Weeks as an example, just because he's a player who actually improved to above average defensively. On average we'll probably have players we develop for 6-8 years of service time, regardless of injury. Weeks was up full time in 2005, but didn't provide any positive value defensively until 2009. as such he hurt his overall value every year until 2009. When we have such a limited window for these players to provide value to the MLB team, I'd like to maximize it as much as possible. To do that, we need to graduate competent players all the way around to MLB. There will exceptions to the rule, when it's necessary to push a player hard, but given the state of the MLB team I just don't see the need.

 

Pitching wise, Thornburg could very start next year in AA, dominate AA and be in AAA by the end of the season. If he pitches to a sub 3 ERA in BC I doubt he goes back for more seasoning. I just can't get worked up about Ross as he needs to make adjustments now that teams have adjusted to him.

 

Thornburg could probably go now without a problem, in fact I have no doubt he could, but if he continues to progress he'll be in AA by the start of next season. We still have Rogers (i hope), Rivas, Peralta, Scarpetta, and Heckathorn in front of him.

 

edit. As far as pushing a guy like Komatsu who really doesn't have a spot on the MLB roster at this time, I'll say what I said the first time the promotion issue came up... we're promoting him to what end? From a progression standpoint, for the most part AA and AAA pitching are 2 entirely different animals. In AA you'll have many more true prospects with power arms, so hitters are going to see more of a power arsenal out of the AA pitchers. In AAA you'll have mostly power arms that still don't locate very well or finesse pitchers trying to prove they belong in MLB. So I don't have any problem with hitters spending a full season in both leagues, because in MLB they'll get a steady diet of both types of pitching.

 

For the most part legit prospect pitching isn't in AAA very long, unless you're the Rays and really don't have room for the prospect in your MLB rotation. Most of those pitchers are gone by July because their respective MLB teams need them.

[craigharmann]

Orlando Arcia to any Milwaukee farm or ML team in the states!!

[BrewCrew Fan]

Schafer beats em all to the majors. He's starting to hit and he'll be in AAA soon ready for a late season call up. They like him, he can play all of the OF positions and is ready defensively. He just brings more to the plate than Komo or Gindl.

[paul253]

Schafer beats em all to the majors.

 

Haha yeah sometime by 2014 he'll make it up to Milwaukee http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[CheezWizHed]

Schafer beats em all to the majors. He's starting to hit and he'll be in AAA soon ready for a late season call up.

 

If you are looking for a Cain-esque progression to the majors, I wouldn't hold my breath. I like Schafer, but he barely has any AA at bats. I can almost guarantee he stays at AA for the rest of the year.

[paul253]

If you are looking for a Cain-esque progression to the majors, I

wouldn't hold my breath. I like Schafer, but he barely has any AA at

bats. I can almost guarantee he stays at AA for the rest of the year.

 

I was hoping to see either Komatsu or Schafer as Milwaukee's CF next year. But with the emergence of Nyjer Morgan and Gomez's super solid defense I am pretty certain that will be the same outfield combo next season. I still wouldn't mind seeing Komatu moved up soon but I'm fine with Schafer in Huntsville for the remainder of the year assuming he doesn't start tearing the cover of the ball. I would like to see Khris Davis move up soon too though along with Thornburg and Ross.

[Tedaldtada]

They should really just move Ross to the AA pen.

[heresrobin]

I like Hunter Morris's power, but 2 things bug me about him:

-He doesn't walk (only 7 BBs this year), so I question his plate recognition and future OBP skills

-He has 11 errors this year at 1B - that seems like a lot

 

For those two reasons, I don't really think of him as much of a prospect right now. In my mind, Khris Davis is probably the Brewers best 1B prospect as well as their best corner outfield prospect.

I think Hunter started out the year playing 3rd base, so I think that accounts partially for the high error total.

 

According to baseballreference, Morris has 11 Errors in 39 games at 1B and 2 Errors in 6 games as 3B:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=morris001hun

 

 

[monty57]

I was hoping to see either Komatsu or Schafer as Milwaukee's CF next year. But with the emergence of Nyjer Morgan and Gomez's super solid defense I am pretty certain that will be the same outfield combo next season.

 

That was my thought exactly, and it will probably be the best for Logan. I hope he's able to stay healthy and be ready to take over full-time CF in Milwaukee around 2013.

[paul253]

Thornburg is now 6-0 with a 1.61 ERA through 11 starts and 61.2 innings. 47 hits, 21 walks, 67 K's and a 1.10 WHIP. I'm just saying.....

[CheezWizHed]

While we are at it, seems like BK is bucking for AA...

[brewfan1]

Bk should already be there, but after the all star break it should be a no brainer.

[And That]

Kjeldgaard and Khris Davis should both be no-brainers for promotion to Huntsville, with Komatsu (if healthy) and maybe Haydel or Halton going to Nashville.

 

I'd also push Scarpetta, Merklinger, Peralta, Fiers and Hinton (permanently, this time) to AAA, but the Brewers aren't aggressive at all with their pitching prospects, so whatever.

[brewfan1]

And that, I like your thinking. All were very deserving.

[paul253]

I'd consider skipping Thornburg all the way to Huntsville to see how he handles it. He is absolutely dominating low A ball.