The NL Playoff Race Thread

[splitterpfj]

OK Folks, here we are, on the eve of the 60th game of the season for the Crew, and they are....

 

2 games out in the Central

 

1/2 game in front in the Wildcard race (which is ridiculous to point out at this point in the season, but I just did)

 

They are 4th in the league in runs scored, and they are tied for 6th in the league in runs allowed.

 

The team is the healthiest its been all season, and they've actually started to win some road games.

 

Believe it or not, the Brewers are, in fact, a viable contender to reach the playoffs.

 

Please share your thoughts on the Brewers, and the rest of the league - who's for real, who should start scouting for the 2012 draft...and why?

[jjfanec]

Believe it or not, the Brewers are, in fact, a viable contender to reach the playoffs.

 

Please share your thoughts on the Brewers, and the rest of the league - who's for real, who should start scouting for the 2012 draft...and why?

I really think the Brewers make the playoffs. The teams that make me nervous are the Cardinals (who I have sadly become believers in recently) and the Braves. I waver back in forth on the Reds. I think the Phillies and one NL West team - probably the Giants are in but I think the Wild-Card comes down to the Brewers/Cards/Reds and Braves. I see the Marlins and D-Backs falling back to the pack. I would not be surprised to see Colorado be the team who is not really in the hunt right now make a run.

 

As splitter said we are finally getting healthy with Hart, our bullpen, Morgan, and Greinke now settling in. I love our top 3 against pretty much anyone and Wolf has been terrific as a number 4 guy. In Wolf's last 10 starts he has given up 1 run or fewer 6 times and 2 runs once. I like that out of a 4.

[TooLiveBrew]

I see the Marlins and D-Backs falling back to the pack.

 

I actually believe in the Marlins. Keep in mind that their nice start has been without the real Hanley Ramirez. They have solid pitching & a pretty deep offense (w/'real' Hanley).

[jjfanec]

I see the Marlins and D-Backs falling back to the pack.

 

I actually believe in the Marlins. Keep in mind that their nice start has been without the real Hanley Ramirez. They have solid pitching & a pretty deep offense (w/'real' Hanley).

Yeah I can see that, but I just dont see the young guys like Morrison, Stanton, etc holding up for the full-year. They have been struggling of late and I dont think it is just the loss of Johnson. I see them hanging in the race like 3 or 4 games out right until the end but I just dont see them getting the Wild Card. Having to play the Phillies and Braves a lot effects that too.

[JohnBriggs12]

"Believe it or not are, in fact, a viable contender to reach the playoffs"

 

We knew that the day the Greinke deal was announced didn't we? The Marcum deal had already made them contenders in my book. The Greinke deal made them favorites. This is what a team with a top of the line rotation looks like.

 

All the major ingredients are in place. They have a top rotation. The bullpen is anchored by a top of the line closer. The lineup has a second to none middle of the order, and lots of speed.

 

So much focus was placed on the one or two spots on the field that were below average. A shrewd deal by Melvin has made CF a strength. Betancourt hasn't embarrassed at SS as many predicted he would. The bench isn't great, but guys have contributed here and there and barring injury, most regulars will play a lot.

 

Every team has guys that underachieve, and right now that's McGehee for the Brewers. They can survive that.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Pros:

 

Rotation has been as good as advertised. Narveson's a bit sketchy, but what do you expect out of your number 5?

Fielder, Braun, Weeks, and Hart are all performing up to expectations.

Most of the guys in the bullpen have performed above expectations

The CF platoon situation has turned an area of weakness into at the very least, a league average output. Roenicke, for all his other faults, has seemed to find a usage pattern for Gomez that minimizes his major weakness, getting on base.

 

Cons:

 

Axford and Loe, the 8th and 9th inning guys, have struggled. Axford's save numbers are great, but that is a stupid stat. How many times can he wiggle off the proverbial hook before the 1.5 WHIP starts to bite him in the butt? So far so good, but he needs to stop putting himself in trouble with leadoff walks

The left side of the infield is a hot mess, offensively and defensively. Betancourt has zero range, and McGehee's defense overall this year is pretty bad. Betancourt's been worse than advertised on offense, but McGehee's failure has been a bigger disappointment, as he was being counted on to be the #5 guy in a power packed lineup.

The bench overall just kinda sucks. I won't argue that Kotsay's .340 OBP is a pleasant surprise, but we have 2 readily available replacements for Nieves in our own system. Meanwhile, situations like this past weekend where a .400 OPS player is coming to bat with 2 outs in a key situation are happening, and the predictable happens. Counsell's too old to be useful anymore. Hopefully Josh Wilson can continue to at least just not suck, and our backup IF situation at least looks marginally better.

 

Overall, I think the pro's outweigh the con's to a fairly wide margin. I'm hopeful that the return of Saito helps out the 8th inning situation somewhat, and I'm hopeful that somehow, someway, Melvin finds a SS around the deadline who can cover more ground than about 10 square feet. McGehee, hopefully, will at least hit the rest of the season to the tune of a .750-.800 OPS, and Roenicke falls out of love with Nieves, and we bring up either Rivera or Kottaras. 93 wins, NL Central champs.

 

[Invader3K]

The nice thing about the Brewers is I don't see them needing to acquire some huge piece in July to put themselves over the top. Sure, an upgrade at shortstop or maybe 3B (barring a turnaround for Casey) would be nice, but it's not like they need to get an elite guy like a Jose Reyes to hopefully push the team into contention.

[carniesandrubes]

"Believe it or not are, in fact, a viable contender to reach the playoffs"

 

Not to surprising given the moves that were made. This team is going to be pretty bad in a couple years, so they better pull out all the stops this year and next to make that likely future futility worth it.

[owbc]

I know it's wrong to post this, but it is worth noting that the Brewers are 2 games behind the Phillies for best record in baseball and home field advantage in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs.

[brwrsfan]

I just wish the Cardinals would stop getting all these wins against mediocre teams and we could actually pass them. Then we can focus on staying in front and catching the Phillies.

[JohnBriggs12]

Bobby Valentine and John Kruk both agreed the Brewers are the team to beat in the NL Central last night. Valentine's been on board for a while I believe, probably since he paid close attention after almost getting the managerial job. I wasn't aware Kruk was however.

[Invader3K]

Bobby Valentine and John Kruk both agreed the Brewers are the team to beat in the NL Central last night. Valentine's been on board for a while I believe, probably since he paid close attention after almost getting the managerial job. I wasn't aware Kruk was however.

I can recall Kruk saying positive things about the Brewers as well. A lot of pundits in general were saying the team would fall short this season, IIRC, though.

[DuWayne Steurer]

One big thing that's a positive is that for the most part, there's nobody on the Brewers that to this point has even mildly outperformed their expectations. Everyone is doing more or less what you'd expect out of them. Well, maybe Morgan, but that's a pretty small sample. Going forward, there's no reason to expect a regression to a mean for the team or any one player.

 

 

In St. Louis, Lohse, and probably Berkman are far outpacing their ZiPS. Now Berkman has a history of being a great hitter, but I expect him to regress some, while Pujols will probably pick up the slack there. I just don't see the Cardinals as a .600 team.

[rluzinski]

Any above average team are legit playoff contenders. I believe the Brewer qualify. The Cardinals are probably not a true 95 win team, so it should be an interesting race.

 

The bullpen is anchored by a top of the line closer.

 

I don't think I've ever heard Axford described like that before. I suspect he won't even be the closer by the end of the year.

 

Betancourt hasn't embarrassed at SS as many predicted he would.

 

Among the worst UZR/150 rates in the league for a SS. He also has 8 errors. He's been bad as expected defensively.

[young guns]

Betancourt hasn't embarrassed at SS as many predicted he would.

 

Among the worst UZR/150 rates in the league for a SS. He also has 8 errors. He's been bad as expected defensively.

And I would say worse than expected as a hitter.

[pitchleague]

Betancourt hasn't embarrassed at SS as many predicted he would.

 

Among the worst UZR/150 rates in the league for a SS. He also has 8 errors. He's been bad as expected defensively.

I don't think anybody is arguing that his defense doesn't stink. I think the poster that you quoted meant that Betancourt has embarrassed at SS to the point of 3 errors every other game and about 30-40 errors total like so many people (posters and professional writers) made it sound like he was going to do. (of course, this is hyperbole as nobody actually said that.)

 

Maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I had read his comment.

[Ennder]

I think a lot of people assumed when we said Betancourt would stink defensively it meant he'd be leading the leagues in errors. What was meant was he has about the worst range you can have at short to go along with pretty mediocre errors and mediocre decision making and a mediocre arm.

 

Not that it is terribly accurate but coolstandings.com has us up to a 46.5% chance to make the playoffs now which is always nice.

[Invader3K]

I think all Briggs meant was that he hasn't been costing the team games like many seemed to say he would. That may just point to how good the rest of the team is, though.

[brwrsfan]

I don't like Betancourt, but his offense appears to be on the upswing the last few weeks. If he was hitting like he did last year, his defense might be given a bit more of a pass.

[rluzinski]

Betancourt hasn't embarrassed at SS as many predicted he would.

 

Among the worst UZR/150 rates in the league for a SS. He also has 8 errors. He's been bad as expected defensively.

I don't think anybody is arguing that his defense doesn't stink. I think the poster that you quoted meant that Betancourt has embarrassed at SS to the point of 3 errors every other game and about 30-40 errors total like so many people (posters and professional writers) made it sound like he was going to do. (of course, this is hyperbole as nobody actually said that.)

 

Maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I had read his comment.

As did I. He was saying that the mythical group of people who claimed Betancourt makes a fool of himself on a daily basis at SS was wrong.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

I'm pretty sure Marcum has exceeded expectations by a wide margin. If you would have told me that Marcum would finish the year 16-8, 1.20 WHIP, 3.50 i would have been very happy.

He is on pace for atleast that many wins, a 2.60 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP

 

If Marcum, Yo, and Greinke all finish with an ERA below 3.50, i will be very very happy

[rluzinski]

I think all Briggs meant was that he hasn't been costing the team games like many seemed to say he would. That may just point to how good the rest of the team is, though.

I would find it hard to believe that all the plays he hasn't made has only occurred in Brewer wins.

[brewtown82]

It's ok to talk playoffs in June, but as for a race? I agree with previous poster who said it would be the Reds and Braves as our main competition for the Wild Card. Somehow, though, I see the Brewers as division champs. St Louis' pitching is not proven and not as good as it has been so far, while the Brewers' rotation will arguably get better as Greinke settles in and Narveson realizes that he is the pitcher who had a great 2nd half last year. Really don't understand the Loe love, but Starting pitching, Bullpen (w/Saito hopefully), and lineup says the Brew Crew will be division champs.

[splitterpfj]

What are your thoughts on the Braves? They've had issues on offense, but their pitching has really won me over, in fact, if the Brewers do make the playoffs, Atlanta may be the team I'd like to see the least.

[topper09er]

What are your thoughts on the Braves? They've had issues on offense, but their pitching has really won me over, in fact, if the Brewers do make the playoffs, Atlanta may be the team I'd like to see the least.

Remember this team won the world series last year. Pitching always takes you the deepest.

Andres Torres

Freddy Sanchez

Buster Posey

Pat Burrell

Cody Ross

Aubrey Huff

Juan Uribe

Edgar Renteria

 

I would still rather not face the Phillies