Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

[Never Outhustled]

X, Justin Verlander is an example of what you are looking for.

 

And maybe we can give Jimmy Nelson a little more time? Sheesh.

Verlander? How? His career ERA was more than 2 runs better than Bradley. Verlander had seasons of 2.40 and 1.91, and that's against the old bats. Verlander is an excellent example of how well college production translates to MLB.

 

[And That]

From a KXAN video I just linked to in the draft pick selections thread, Taylor Jungmann says:

I have no interest in hitting.

[RockCoCougars]

Admittedly, I know very little about any of the players taken in the first round, but I take it that both of these guys have a higher 'floor' than Arnett. Just the fact that Arnett was actually considered a first round talent goes to show what a crapshoot the first round of the MLB draft is. All that I know is that the Brewers have never had success taking high school pitchers in the first, and they've taken plenty of them. The track record of college pitchers in the first has been spotty as well, but they got Sheets, Eldred and Plesac that way, so they hit on a few. It seems that generally the teams who draft well in rounds 2 on separate themselves from the pack in hindsight- that's where the good scouting comes into play.

[YoungGeezy]

I just looked at Covey's stats at USD this year. Ouch. Maybe we dodged another bullet there?

I wouldn't overly read into his stats, I think we'll get much better over the next 2 years. Have to remember he is not even a year into living with a life alterning disease. He had lost a ton of weight and had to put it back on, he lost his velocity, suffered arm fatigue, amonst other issues that he has had to battle back from. As he continues to regrain strength and learns how to properly control and live with his diabetes I think he can get back to were he was. This is why I was in 100% agreement that he went to college. It is a tough adjustment and takes some time.

[brwrsfan]

What time does the draft resume today?

[TheCrew07]

Never had success drafting pitchers in the 1st other than Odorizzi?

 

After reading through the articles on Bradley, what logical explanation is there for the coaching staff at GT limiting him to being a fastball/slider pitcher through his sophomore season? Did that continue after his time on the cape given the success he had with his change? Why wouldn't you let a starting pitcher use all his pitches? Especially if the 3rd pitch is easy on the arm like a change?

[And That]

Draft rounds 2-30 starts today at 11 CDT.

[brewmann04]

where can we follow it on line? There some good things that have been said on bothe Guys.

In my Baseball America Draft Preview Jurgmann was rated 5th best RH and Bradley 3rd Best Lefty.

[YoungGeezy]

Could be just me but isn't a little early to write off a guy who just turned 22 the other day? While his season has been tough it has not been so bad that there is no chance he could ever make it. Nelson pitched pretty well (as he shough have) in Helena outside of his first outing or two. I think it is far to early to say he is a completely wasted pick. He needs consistancy. He has had very good games, he has had other games were he has been very good until he gives up that big inning, then others were he is just bad. I am not willing to sit here and say he is a failure, a wasted pick, no talent hack or any of that other non-sense because he has had a rough 2 months. In the NFL it takes 3 full years to really grade a rookie, in baseball it is even longer. Try to give a kid a full-season before you throw him out the door.

[Never Outhustled]

Could be just me but isn't a little early to write off a guy who just turned 22 the other day?

I've seen him pitch both in college and for the T-Rats. He's un-athletic and doesn't throw hard. He has sink on his ball when it's down, but it rarely is.

 

I have more hope for Arnett than Nelson. So I guess that means I'm not a total pessimist.

[brwrsfan]

For those of you that know....any sleepers I should hope the Brewers snag in the next few rounds here? Any really high talent guys falling at all?

[homer]

Could be just me but isn't a little early to write off a guy who just turned 22 the other day?

I've seen him pitch both in college and for the T-Rats. He's un-athletic and doesn't throw hard. He has sink on his ball when it's down, but it rarely is.

 

I have more hope for Arnett than Nelson. So I guess that means I'm not a total pessimist.

That's because you pimped Arnett hard when he was drafted.

[Never Outhustled]

Could be just me but isn't a little early to write off a guy who just turned 22 the other day?

I've seen him pitch both in college and for the T-Rats. He's un-athletic and doesn't throw hard. He has sink on his ball when it's down, but it rarely is.

 

I have more hope for Arnett than Nelson. So I guess that means I'm not a total pessimist.

That's because you pimped Arnett hard when he was drafted.

 

Yup sure did. Loved him, saw him pitch. Total fireballer. Thought he was one of the best in the draft. How he suddenly lost 8 MPH is beyond me. Had a completely different delivery last year, but that was after the velocity drop.

 

By the way Homer, you have any opinions on anyone selected, or any predictions for today?

[ListachRides]

For those of you that know....any sleepers I should hope the Brewers snag in the next few rounds here? Any really high talent guys falling at all?

There's probably 3 clear first-round talents who are still available because of huge bonus demands: Josh Bell, Derek Norris and Dillon Howard. I can't see the Brewers taking one of them. There is a lot of talent still available. A quick run-down on some of the position player possibilities for rounds 2-3:

1b

Nicky Delmonico, HS (some think he can catch)

Alex Dickerson, Indiana

Dan Vogelbach, HS

Aaron Westlake, Vanderbilt

Ricky Oropesa, USC

Cody Asche, Nebraska

Rookie Davis, HS

2b

Brad Miller, Clemson

Ryan Wright, Louisville

Christian Lopes, HS

SS

Connor Barron, HS

Brandon Loy, Texas

Julius Gaines, HS

Phillip Evans, HS

Tyler Green, HS

3b

Matt Dean, HS

B. A. Vollmuth, Southern Miss

Jason Esposito, Vanderbilt

OF

Derek Fisher, HS (probably a tough sign)

Kyle Gaedele, Valpraiso

Charles Tilson, HS

Granden Goetzman, HS

Carl Thomore, HS

Senquez Golson, HS

Jake Cave, HS

Jason Coats, Texas Christian

[Never Outhustled]

For those of you that know....any sleepers I should hope the Brewers snag in the next few rounds here? Any really high talent guys falling at all?

 

Josh Bell, he's going to college. Daniel Norris, a LHP with a big pricetag. Austin Hedges is a highly rated HS catcher with a questionable bat. I couldn't have less interest in him. Hope somebody else grabs him up.

 

I like SS Connar Barron. Big, and can hit. Might end up at 3rd, but that's fine too. RHP Dillon Maples, an athletic pitcher. We seem to do better with athleteic pitchers than big guys. I like HS 1B Kevin Cron in round 3. Cron will cost over slot.

 

EDIT: ListashRides beat me to it. He has Ryan Wright on his list, like him too. Probably a 2B, but he can hit, even has power. Better hitter than a number of college bats already taken.

[Tedaldtada]

X, Justin Verlander is an example of what you are looking for.

 

And maybe we can give Jimmy Nelson a little more time? Sheesh.

Verlander? How? His career ERA was more than 2 runs better than Bradley. Verlander had seasons of 2.40 and 1.91, and that's against the old bats. Verlander is an excellent example of how well college production translates to MLB.

His ERA fell off his last year when he became the guy at OD. There were many questions as to whether he could handle stiffer competition. In fact, Bradley had a pretty comparable final year in college. Bradley doesn't throw as hard as Verlander, but he is a lefty. Their control and command received very, very similar grades after their final year as well.

 

As an aside, this 'new bats' thing everyone keeps going to is greatly unsubstantiated. Maybe we should stop acting like we are experts on how the new bats are effecting prospect scouting. They are still using metal aren't they? Page me when they switch college hitters to wood.

[ListachRides]

As for pitchers, it's quickest to break it down by college and high school:

College

Anthony Meo

Josh Osich

Erik Johnson

Andrew Gagnon

Jack Armstrong

Lenny Linsky

Burch Smith

Adam Conley

Logan Verret

Noe Ramirez

Carter Capps

High School

Bryan Brickhouse

Dillon Maples

Cody Kukuk

Mason Hope

Dillon Peters

Jorge Lopez

Jake Reed

Adrian Houser

Hawtin Buchanan

Kody Watts

Cole Wiper

Clay Holmes

[brwrsfan]

Listach...thanks for the list. I'll be referencing that all day. Of all those guys mentioned, you think Bonnor is the one I should hope for?

[Never Outhustled]

As an aside, this 'new bats' thing everyone keeps going to is greatly unsubstantiated. Maybe we should stop acting like we are experts on how the new bats are effecting prospect scouting. They are still using metal aren't they? Page me when they switch college hitters to wood.

 

You realize Home Runs are down 50% right? How is that "unsubstantiated"? Are you suggesting it's coincidence? It's the biggest change in college baseball maybe ever.

[Tedaldtada]

As an aside, this 'new bats' thing everyone keeps going to is greatly unsubstantiated. Maybe we should stop acting like we are experts on how the new bats are effecting prospect scouting. They are still using metal aren't they? Page me when they switch college hitters to wood.

 

You realize Home Runs are down 50% right? It's the biggest change in college baseball maybe ever.

Yet, somehow, only 1 less run is scored per game per team! OMGZ! That is so drastic. (link) And that was through the first half of the season, otherwise known as the cold months.

 

How about we wait a few years before we make wild claims on how much the new bats are really effecting the game? The numbers could even out next season. I'm not arguing one way or another, I just want more data and more info.

[homer]

Yup sure did. Loved him, saw him pitch. Total fireballer. Thought he was one of the best in the draft. How he suddenly lost 8 MPH is beyond me. Had a completely different delivery last year, but that was after the velocity drop.

 

By the way Homer, you have any opinions on anyone selected, or any predictions for today?

Already said pitching draft picks are total crapshoots so it's no use getting upset or excited about them. Just wait to see how it plays out and hope your guys beat the odds. For the record, I like the two guys drafted based on what all the "experts" around the league are saying.

 

And as for the rest of the day, it really doesn't matter who I like or not. I haven't seen these guys anywhere near enough to get upset if "my guy" isn't drafted by the Brewers. I figure the scouting department knows more than I do so once they get drafted I start to follow them and root for their success.

[TheCrew07]

This thread has quickly become petty bickering about nothing.

[ListachRides]

Listach...thanks for the list. I'll be referencing that all day. Of all those guys mentioned, you think Bonnor is the one I should hope for?

You mean Barron? Yeah, I really like Barron, Dean and pretty much all of the high school outfielders listed (including Johnny Eierman and Ben Roberts who I forgot).

Also, here's the link to perfect game's top 331 players for a good quick reference beyond the guys I put up. http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=5838

[Tedaldtada]

One last thing I'll say about the bats is, no matter what bat you use, the radar gun reads the same. So do scouting reports on command, control, makeup, athleticism, size, mechanics, etc.

 

Results are the ONLY thing effected by the new bats.

[NievesNoNO]

---

Already said pitching draft picks are total crapshoots so it's no use getting upset or excited about them. Just wait to see how it plays out and hope your guys beat the odds. For the record, I like the two guys drafted based on what all the "experts" around the league are saying.

 

And as for the rest of the day, it really doesn't matter who I like or not. I haven't seen these guys anywhere near enough to get upset if "my guy" isn't drafted by the Brewers. I figure the scouting department knows more than I do so once they get drafted I start to follow them and root for their success.

 

That pretty much sums up my feeling as well. I don't follow college ball enough to know these guys other than what I read written by others who presumably do follow these players. I will say this though, and maybe this is why I'm not a GM, but to me the high/low floor/ceiling stuff is junk. My question is can the guy play baseball? It is as simple is that. To me, if you have to qualify your pick by saying something to the effect of, "we like the skill set he brings", but the guy has no history of being able to get results with that set then there's no point in drafting him. Like I said, I don't have any idea where our current picks fall within that, but if they have had success in the past then I give them as good of a shot as anyone else drafted in that position to be successful.

 

Thanks Listach for the list and links.