Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

[GB12]

There's early busts that the draftniks like every year.

 

 

like many of the ted thompson picks?

Justin Harrell is the only one of Thompson's first round picks who could fir that description.

[LouisEly]

lets get younger tomorrow!

Earlier today I took a look at the 1997-2006 drafts for pitchers taken at #12 or later in the first round or anywhere in the 2nd round that profile as #1 or #2 starters:

 

College pitchers: Dan Haren, John Lackey, Jered Weaver, Matt Garza, Clay Buchholz, Ian Kennedy, Justin Masterson

 

High School picthers: C.C. Sabathia, Adam Wainwright, Matt Cain, Jon Lester, Chad Billingsley, Gio Gonzalez, Yo Gallardo, Trever Cahill

 

Maybe a little bit better HS group, but that college group is nothing to sneeze at. Other college pitchers taken in that range include Randy Wolf, Jeff Weaver, Noah Lowry, Jeremy Guthrie, Joe Blanton, Scott Baker, Wade LeBlanc, and Joe Saunders. I don't think anyone would argue if either of their first two picks turns out like the first group, and the second group would not be a bad outcome. Good college pitchers have been drafted at #12 or later.

 

Some people seem to think that there's a dozen #1 starters in each draft; there isn't - there's maybe two, three in a good year. To expect them at #12 or #15 isn't that realistic. To get a #2/#3 starter at #12 and #15 is actually above average for an average draft.

[Hate those Rodents]

Big Ten baseball.....is not good.

[Giraldo8]

There's early busts that the draftniks like every year.

 

 

like many of the ted thompson picks?

I was waiting for this comment actually. Funny stuff

[LouisEly]

There's early busts that the draftniks like every year.

 

 

like many of the ted thompson picks?

I believe Dave forgot to put his comment in blue.

[Giraldo8]

There's early busts that the draftniks like every year.

 

 

like many of the ted thompson picks?

Justin Harrell is the only one of Thompson's first round picks who could fir that description.

It's an inside joke pertaining to a certain poster's feelings toward TT.

[narwhalattack]

In terms of stuff, Gray, Barnes, Guerrieri> Jungmann, Jed Bradley

 

They had 2 picks in the first round, in which 1 could be used for high upside, great stuff, not-so-very-safe guys and 1 for a safe pick. They used both picks on safe picks and left at least 3 guys with significantly better stuff and upside on the board. I just don't get it.

[StearnsFTW]

I already hate Kolten Wong.

[Raw Biz]

In terms of stuff, Gray, Barnes, Guerrieri> Jungmann, Jed Bradley

 

They had 2 picks in the first round, in which 1 could be used for high upside, great stuff, not-so-very-safe guys and 1 for a safe pick. They used both picks on safe picks and left at least 3 guys with significantly better stuff and upside on the board. I just don't get it.

Exactly. I would've been fine with one of Jungmann/Bradley (Jungmann over Bradley) paired up with someone like Gray/Guerrieri. I understand wanting to move pitchers quickly through the system but why sacrifice talent just to do so? I just wish with 2 picks they would've gone one safe and one high risk/high reward pick. With the state of our farm sytem, a high reward pitcher really could have made a difference if he panned out but wouldn't really hurt if he didn't.

[YoungGeezy]

The get young comment was aimed at the fact we are a very old systems, I believe only 5-6 players under the age of 21. Not many system blossem with the Brewers recent college heavy mentality. It usually takes a nice blend off both.

[narwhalattack]

After seeing the Brewers draft Jungmann, I was really hoping that they would draft Gray 15th. FB that ranges from 94-96, nasty curve, potential above-average changeup. I don't care if he's 5'11! Pedro Martinez and Roy Oswalt are about the same height!

[YoungGeezy]

Bradley is FAR from safe, he has shown flashes of greatness and other time medicracy. I personally feel he has a ton of upside and ceiling. Most thought he was a top 10 or lower lock. That is not because he was safe. He will be a big hit or a big miss in my eyes.

[chickinbrickin]

The Bradley pick is great, and the Jungmann pick makes me nevrvous. Bradley has a lot of upside and should be solid if not great. Jungmann reads a lot like Eric Arnett, which doesn't sit well with me.

[Never Outhustled]

If Taylor Jungman doesn't win everyone over with his dominant college career, how about the fact that he has complete disdain for country music. Kids got good taste. He'll fit in better in Milwaukee than Texas.

[patrickgpe]

our scouts have been on these players for years, i think we need to trust in that they know what they are doing. Lets let the brewers get these 2 pitchers signed and see how they do before rushing to judgement. They aren't the 2 players i would have took but the brewers scouts have seen them pitch way more than anyone here on this board.

[sfl2hnq17]

chickinbrickin

 

 

I will argue with you on that one. Jungmann has 3 years of success (granted not as dominant as this year's) in the Big 12 and Arnett had one season of decent success in the Big Ten. Not to mention that Arnett's stuff got significantly better he draft-eligible season than in previous ones.

[brewmann04]

I am curious by the Draft experts here who is the best SS prospect available.

[Yeti73]

I know absolutely nothing about scouting, but I can say 1. These reports are far more convincing than the Arnett reports I recall reading two years ago that portrayed a one-year wonder good big ten pitcher and 2. If we hit 50% on today's picks and one pans out as a #1-2 guy in the rotation and the other flops, I'll be elated. One can never really know.

[Never Outhustled]

I am curious by the Draft experts here who is the best SS prospect available.

 

Connor Barron. Lots of SS grabbed up already.

[brewmann04]

I like to see them keep drafting Piitchers as well as some hitters that can play 3b,SS, C.I still think you can never have enough pitching prospects in the Pipe line.

[monty57]

With the state of our farm sytem, a high reward pitcher really could have made a difference if he panned out but wouldn't really hurt if he didn't.

 

I disagree. Due in large part to failures of high risk / high reward pitchers, we need successes. We are in a position that we can't take as much risk as a team whose farm system is loaded with talent. It looks like we just got two guys who are fairly close to MLB ready (at least as far as draft picks go), and as sad as it is to say probably instantly become the top two pitching prospects in the system.

 

Barring extensions, we're losing Marcum, Greinke and Wolf after next season. We need people who can step up in the next couple of years to fill out the rotation, or we are going to be signing those free agents Melvin has done so poorly on. Being college Juniors, I hope these two picks can help out in this regard.

[BoKnowsBall]

Jungmann vs Arnett:

 

Frosh: Jungmann Arnett

Record 11-3 2-2

ERA 2.00 6.11

IP 94.2 35.1

K 101 26

BB 35 20

BAA .193 .264

 

Soph:

Record 8-3 4-5

ERA 2.03 5.45

IP 120.0 66.0

K 129 37

BB 41 38

BAA .209 .318

 

Junior:

Record 13-1 12-2

ERA 1.40 2.50

IP 128.1 108

K 119 109

BB 29 39

BAA .168 .212

 

Jungmann has been so much better than Arnett and has played against better competition as well.

[brewmann04]

thank you X ellence for your help.

[patrickgpe]

boknowsball thanks for the comparison it makes me sleep easier.

[YoungGeezy]

If dominating college was the main critera for top prospects, the draft would be a whole lot different. So point out the stats all you want but at the end of the day they don't matter. Many guys have "dominated collge ball" and slipped in drafts. All we have to do is look at Cole being the number selection. Bauer was 100x the college pitcher but it all come down to stuff and projectability. Look at a Matt Miller who played in the awful conference known as the big 10, couldn't throw a strike and ERA sat nicely in the 5.00's but he went in the 5th round. Then their are college pitchers who finish with 1.00 ERA's, low walks, good amount of strikeouts but fall to the 20-35 rd range. Once again I think Jungmann will be a good pitcher but basing it off his stats is dumb.

 

I'm starting to think the MLB intentionally grading so many not Type A FA, Type A FA's just to stretch out this new 3 day prime time draft. Unreal that the brewers 2nd round pick is not until #70. Through the first 40 I'd say Christian Lopes, Phillip Evans, Trevor Story, Tyler Greene are some of top HS SS's left.