Is the college pitching overrated?

[Never Outhustled]

I'm concerned that the so-called great college pitching this year is overrated. We see again and again in the scouting reports for college position players the statement "his numbers are down, but so is every else's because of the new bats", yet we never see any attempts to curve the pitchers production. If HR's are down almost 50% because of the bats, isn't the pitcher dominance a bit of a mirage? Gerrit Cole is the likely #1 pick, yet his ERA would likely be over 4 with the old bats. That's not good. These pitchers need to be held to a higher standard than before, but I don't see that happening.

 

Other than Bauer and Hultzen, I think this group is overrated. I hope the Brewers avoid them.

[Tedaldtada]

I have been thinking this exact same thing.

 

Bauer is the only one that really impresses me. Tyler Anderson would be alright at 15 I guess. Everyone else could easily go Eric Arnett.

 

Edit: I also really like Sonny Gray's 2 plus-plus pitch combo.

[heresrobin]

This is really a good point X ellence. I think it would be interesting to sort of track how the top college pitchers from this draft perform over the next 3-5 years or so.

[heresrobin]

I guess we'll get a firsthand look as to the answer of this question, huh?

[sveumrules]

Beat me to it heresrobin, let's seriously hope not!

[Tedaldtada]

Gray is the only guy I'm truly sad we let pass. Cron would have been fun. I bet the Angels got a good one again. They are our guys now, so here is to long productive careers out of both. One thing I have to keep telling myself is that there are A TON of people that LOVE both of these guys.

[Flood Pants]

Yes, a good point indeed. The most reliable stats to look at are probably strikeouts vs walks, as these should be fundamentally unaffected by a drop in hitter power. Every other pitching stat would have at least something to do with how hard hitters are able to hit the ball. I hope the Brewers were looking at career stats rather than single-year stats when making their picks.

 

Another way to look at it, though, is that even if every pitcher's stats are inflated, the best pitchers will still have the best stats relative to everyone else. Just like the best hitters, even if they are hitting fewer home runs than they have before, will still be hitting more home runs than anybody else.

[TooLiveBrew]

The most reliable stats to look at are probably strikeouts vs walks, as these should be fundamentally unaffected by a drop in hitter power

 

I would guess (again, just a guess) that less HR/power would lead to fewer walks & more strikeouts. Maybe not a huge shift for either one, but wouldn't it lead to different totals?

[Oxy]

The most reliable stats to look at are probably strikeouts vs walks, as these should be fundamentally unaffected by a drop in hitter power

 

I would guess (again, just a guess) that less HR/power would lead to fewer walks & more strikeouts. Maybe not a huge shift for either one, but wouldn't it lead to different totals?

I agree, but I think the difference would be too minimal over the course of one college season to really have an effect, especially since it isn't something that would just "happen" but pitchers would have to consciously change the way they pitch in order for the numbers to change (i.e. since they know they are less likely to give up a homer, they attack more hitters). I really don't think this would happen until the last several games of the year once statistics for the year were established, and even then it would only lead to a very small difference.