Bring up Taylor Green?

[endaround]

They are very good estimator's as a whole that will break down for individuals. MLEs in particular hold up very well over all. I guess a lot of this depends on where you see McGehee's true talent level. I am just naturally leery of 27 years olds who come out of nowhere (see Scott Podsednik).

[PrinceEatMeat]

I think it's a good thing that Roenicke gives guys like McGehee a chance to break out of a slump. He's proven capable of it and if he can start hitting he would offer a lot more than a AAA call up. Moving him in the line up can't be a bad thing though, same with off days. Why live with the crappy production right behind Prince? Little adjustments like changing his spot in the order and off days are things worth trying to break a slump anyway.

Agreed. Not sure why Roenicke backed down on moving McGehee out of the 5 spot. I think that would help him, and would give him a chance to break out of it in a less important spot in the lineup. There's no reason why he should hit in front of Hart right now.

[TooLiveBrew]

I understand the general point, homer, but Taylor Green is still a good baseball player, regardless of what level precedes his stat line. He's a disciplined LH bat with some pop. Whatever McGehee finishes with this season, in terms of a slash line, I don't hesitate saying Taylor Green could match. McGehee has sucked for too long to get his numbers up to any respectable level by season's end. He's been Betancourt & Gomez bad, & hasn't shown any signs (imo) of coming out of it. He's skating along purely on rep at this point, & doesn't deserve the starting job on offense or defense.

[Never Outhustled]

I'm surprised at all the negativity towards Green. Yes, he struggled while recovering from a hamate injury, but it seems like some want to ignore that history that accompanies that injury.

 

Also, MLEs were spot on in predicting Alcides Escobar would suck, so it exciting to me that they're predicting Green will be very solid.

[trwi7]

Agree with X. Didn't Weeks have a hamate injury? It took him a long time to get back. There's just nothing that suggests McGehee is going to turn it around. His LD% is 13.8 (that's worse than Wil Nieves) he hits a ton of ground balls sapping power and it's not like he has the speed to beat out any ball that's fielded.

 

Even a platoon would work. Green has a 1.044 OPS vs righties and .650 vs lefties. But there are four players on the team right now that are hurting more than helping. Betancourt (-0.5 WAR), McGehee (-0.4 WAR), Nieves (-0.3 WAR) and Kotsay (-0.2 WAR).

 

We can literally fix every single one of these problems yet continue to do nothing about them.

[homer]

I don't think anyone is being negative. I'm excited he's doing so well. I'm just being cautious with my enthusiasm.

 

And I'm all for having him start at 3rd next season. I'm glad he's in AAA in case something happens to Weeks or McGehee. And I'm also not saying I don't want Green up to replace McGehee at any point this year. But IMHO it's too soon. Wait until after the all star break and do it then if it's still a huge problem.

[Hate those Rodents]

I think we need to go back a few years in Green's case. When our system was littered with talent in the minors pre-CC-trade, Green was hovering around being a top five prospect. He had a tough injury and now is healthy again finally this season. He's hardly a flash in the pan in my view. I am more concerned, in hindsight, that Green was not on the 40 man roster and could have been swiped in the rule five draft. We dropped the ball there big time, but it's all moot at this point.

[yoshii8]

If Mcgehee and Green keep playing like they have been, I think Green will be up and getting starts vs. RHP's very soon. I'm very excited about his resurgance, and hope its not just a hot streak.

[And That]

I'm not saying it means Green's numbers are inflated or anything, I just thought it was an interesting article on offenses generally being up in AAA. I wouldn't be against Green getting a look but I really wouldn't expect much more offense than Casey has been providing from him. Green's never faced ML pitching and didn't really tear up AA.

Offense is up, but Nashville is a pitcher's park, especially relative to the rest of the PCL parks. From '06-'08 it was the 9th-most suppressed run environment in the minors. It may have ticked up a little since then, but it definitely isn't a bandbox by any stretch.

 

Green's MLE, adjusted for league factors (I'm not sure if it's from '09 or '10) is currently .264/.329/.461. If he's even close to that, that's an above average third baseman almost every year. If you platoon the two, Green's MLE v RHP is .288/.355/.523 (!!!).

 

I don't totally buy the argument that because he's never faced big league pitching, he'd struggle. It's unlikely he'd maintain his 935 AAA OPS, but there's a good chance he'd be somewhere in the neighborhood of his MLE OPS of 790. And even if he's only able to manage a 700 OPS, well, that's still better than Casey right now.

 

All that said, I have severe doubts that the Brewers would consider replacing McGehee with Green, or even platooning the two. It doesn't send a good message to the clubhouse that the Brewers will give up on a guy who had a .290 career batting average for the first ~1100 AB of his career after 240 AB of this year. And he's not a 605 OPS player. He should be better offensively the rest of the way. Still inadequate defensively and slower than a geriatric snail, but better with the bat.

[endaround]

The problem of course is they are winning. After all McGehee got his shot because Hall failed but the pressure to makes changes when you're losing is greater.

[JohnBriggs12]

The problem of course is they are winning. After all McGehee got his shot because Hall failed but the pressure to makes changes when you're losing is greater.

Green will undoubtedly get a September call up but I don't see them giving up on McGehee any time soon, for the simple reason that they could start lefty swinging rookies at both corner infield spots in 2012. That screams for a roster spot for a veteran right handed hitter that can fill in at both spots. McGehee would still be cost effective in that role getting 350-400 AB's and he's certainly capable of a bounce back year.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Hall also failed after alot more than 240 ABs, and it became clear that Hall's contract was an organizational anchor and the Brewers could get better production for much lower cost in McGehee. McGehee doesn't cost the Brewers near as much as Hall did, but I think if McGehee is still stinking up the joint in early July a move will be made.

 

I hope Melvin learned his lesson from the Hall deal and stays away from extending McGehee long term - every indication is that McGehee should be a year-to-year arbitration player, and would actually be a prime candidate for trading away if he gets hot and the right offer presents itself.

[monty57]

There is a need to call up Green, as Milwaukee has 3 SS, while Nashville has one bad one, while the Brewers have one slumping 3B (and two SS who can play 3B), while Nashville has two good 3B. Why not swap a SS from Milwaukee for a 3B from Nashville?

 

I don't see them calling up Green to take over for Casey from Day 1, as there would be a lot of pressure on him, and many fans would be in an uproar. However, he would get some starts at 3B to give Casey some days off. If he hit well, while Casey continued to struggle, then I think he could work his way into a platoon, or even a starting role. If he doesn't hit well, or Casey finds his swing, then no harm done... we've upgraded our bench and the days off helped Casey get back on track.

[Funketown]

I hope Melvin learned his lesson from the Hall deal and stays away from extending McGehee long term - every indication is that McGehee should be a year-to-year arbitration player, and would actually be a prime candidate for trading away if he gets hot and the right offer presents itself.

I think we already dodged the bullet with McGehee. After the start of this season I see it as highly unlikely for Melvin to offer McGehee a long term deal, especially with both Gamel and Greene waiting in the wings.

[monty57]

I hope Melvin learned his lesson from the Hall deal and stays away from extending McGehee long term

 

He'd better not sign him long-term. Even before this season's poor start, I didn't want him signed long-term. He'll be at the end of his prime years when his arby years are up, so any long-term deal would be paying peak market value for his declining years. Now that Casey's had a terrible start, his numbers this year will be pretty bad even if he does heat up, meaning he'll be cheap in arbitration this offseason.

 

You sign star players like Braun, Weeks, Fielder, Greinke, Yo to extensions if they are willing. You go year-to-year with players like McGehee, especially when their pre-arby and arby years coincide with their "prime" years.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Taylor Green hit a long home run during the Futures game at Miller Park a few months ago. I enjoyed watching him that game, and would love to see him at least in a platoon for the Brewers.

[TheCrew07]

MLEs... whatever, even though the calculation actually agrees with me this time. Escobar actually overperformed his MLEs in 2009 and 2010. The fact he continues to get worse with age doesn't really make all that much all sense.

 

In general I have a huge problem taking a standard average deduction to stats, applying them to a single prospect, and then definitively saying, "we can expect this X/Y/Z production out of a player based on his MLEs". There are just way too many factors to accurately predict what a player is going to do at both the start and the end of his career. I'm much more comfortable attaching a "should" to a player during MLB career years 4-8 than anytime else.

 

I don't care about what MLEs, ZiPS, or PECOTA project a player's final line to be. I cancelled my subscription to BP a long time ago when I realized that baseball statisticians basically measure the result and yet it treat like it's the cause, and I went more scouting orientated with BA. See BABIP, FIP, xFIP, PAP, etc... it's all the same backwards analysis treating the effect like it's the cause... his BABIP is too high, he's going to regress to mean! Well no kidding, what MLB player produces at a constant rate over the course of an entire 162 game season? Essentially what's being said is he's been really hot and he's going to cool down. Shocking insight... or pitchers who are giving more runs than normal... his BABIP is too high so he's unlucky! No, he's pitched like garbage and has been getting hit hard, there's a difference between poor performance(which is usually poor pitch location) and being unlucky. Cause and effect has been turned completely on it's head... thank goodness pitchfx came around on the pitching side, but we still lose the context of the pitch which makes it's statistically difficult to quantify location. However it's much more sound analysis than FIP or xFIP.

 

I'm alright going with Green because he's younger, keeps himself in better shape, should be slight upgrade defensively, I think he'll hit around league average, and he adds another LH bat. I never wanted the Brewers to commit to Casey long-term, I never believed in his talent to the extent that many around this site have. I don't care what Casey's final line will be, I know he's a fan favorite in Milwaukee because he has kind of an everyman quality that people can relate to, but I just don't get sentimental about players in baseball. Talent wise he was just never as good as his 2009 line, it's remarkable how long he rode out that streak, but he's just not a talented dude, not compared to his peers. I want to get younger/more dynamic athletically, Green is both, though only a slight upgrade in the athletic department.

[wibadgers23]

Since May 16th, Casey has no doubles, one homerun, and four rbi's. They're still not going to call up Green, but Casey is doing nothing right now. Green continues to rake in Nashville.

[fondybrewfan]

My hunch is they give McGehee until the all star break unless the Brewers start losing. At that point perhaps Melvin gets a little desperate.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Sorry guys, but i've had it with McGehee. This might be our one shot in 40 years to make the World Series, and we have two pathetic players (YuBet and SlowGee) wasting space on the roster.

 

If we lose Casey on waivers, i could really care less right now. If Casey brought anything at all to the table, atleast he'd be contributing, but right now he's an automatic out 4 times a game and is bound for atleast 1-2 awful defensive plays per game

[And That]

then definitively saying, "we can expect this X/Y/Z production out of a player based on his MLEs"

I don't believe anyone here said that?

 

Edit: I'll expand. Baseball America/Perfect Game/et al are not right 100% of the time, or close to it. Projections from Baseball Prospectus/Fangraphs/et al are not right 100% of the time, or close to it. To say "to heck with the statistical approach" or "to heck with the scouting approach" is saying the same thing, really. Not letting in both sides of an argument... well, I don't think that's a good thing.

[endaround]

Casey has three optiosn reamaing and not enough time to refuse. The problem is that Green really shouldn't face LHers so McGehee should be on the team for that.

[rluzinski]

I don't care about what MLEs, ZiPS, or PECOTA project a player's final line to be. I cancelled my subscription to BP a long time ago when I realized that baseball statisticians basically measure the result and yet it treat like it's the cause, and I went more scouting orientated with BA. See BABIP, FIP, xFIP, PAP, etc... it's all the same backwards analysis treating the effect like it's the cause... his BABIP is too high, he's going to regress to mean! Well no kidding, what MLB player produces at a constant rate over the course of an entire 162 game season? Essentially what's being said is he's been really hot and he's going to cool down. Shocking insight... or pitchers who are giving more runs than normal... his BABIP is too high so he's unlucky! No, he's pitched like garbage and has been getting hit hard, there's a difference between poor performance(which is usually poor pitch location) and being unlucky. Cause and effect has been turned completely on it's head... thank goodness pitchfx came around on the pitching side, but we still lose the context of the pitch which makes it's statistically difficult to quantify location. However it's much more sound analysis than FIP or xFIP.

 

I share your skepticism of MLE's, as they have not not done a very good job at predicting future performance (it's been tested). PAP appears to not have any real value as well (it's been tested). The rest of that reads as one long, uniformed rant. You seem to be suggesting that no metrics have never been tested for their level of ability to predict future performance. Like people just make up stuff and no one ever tried to quantify their value? And your continued suggestion that BABIP correlated 100% to a pitcher's performance is illogical as well. If you really know about pitch f/x you would see it backs that up. A perfect pitch still can get hard and a bad one can result in a pop up. Is that really a hard sell? And then when you include the effects good or bad defense can have...

 

You just seem so emotionally invested in your current views of baseball that there's really no sense in debating it on a public forum. If you have any interest in having your views challenged, I can point you to dozens of studies.

[homer]

his BABIP is too high so he's unlucky! No, he's pitched like garbage and has been getting hit hard

 

Actually, that would be his LD% not his BABIP. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[brains and braun]

I'm not involved in this, but would like to learn more about lots of these metrics. FIP, xFIP, and BABIP are just letters to me. I know I could research them all individually, but any good resources for noobs?