Bring up Taylor Green?

[And That]

Again, if you're calling him average, half to 3/4 of MLB first baseman are average. That's a weird bell curve.

 

Isn't half the average point?

The average point is the mean, but what I'm saying is I have a difficult time saying most first baseman are average. It's like everyone-gets-a-green-participant-ribbon day. It truly is just a few runs - I think Bill James last pegged defense as 12.5% of the game - but, it is a few runs and within the scale of -5.9 to 9.7 (the range of team 1B UZR/150 from 2008-yesterday) and an average UZR/150 of ~+1.9, Prince's -4.1 UZR/150 certainly is not "average" defense for a first baseman.

 

And again, if you watch him play on a regular basis and say he's a typical MLB first baseman, I guess I don't know what to tell you.

 

Anyway, back to Taylor Green. He'll be better than Brantley. I will win in the end.

[TheCrew07]

Prince isn't an average fielder, you made the claim "nearly average", which really isn't supportable with any metric other than UZR, and And That already laid out why your logic is faulty. If you want to use UZR definitive proof of anything you're being disingenuous at best, no single defensive or offensive metric is definitive proof of anything.

 

Those scoops he fails to convert into outs, don't count against him, they count against the other IFs in UZR, but they should, because of those scoops are plays that any competent 1B makes. I'm not even going to get into the little things like footwork, never tossing the ball to the covering pitcher, saving the extra base on a bad throw, and the like which won't show up in metrics either.

 

As for Yuni only being a slight downgrade from Escobar, that's not an accurate statement either. Escobar is young enough he was likely to improve and he has really hit his stride defensively this season, while Yuni is clearly terrible. He does an adequate job fielding the balls he can get to, and that's about all one can say positive about him. Through yesterday using UZR which you are so fond of Escobar is 6 runs positive and Yuni is over 4 runs negative on the year. How is that a slight downgrade?

 

I stick by assertion that measuring fielding by any single metric is flawed and that one needs to take all data into account. I think in the case of 1B because so many things are unaccounted for by other metrics, that Plus/Minus is the best metric to use because each play at 1B is being individually watched and graded. Prince clearly makes every other IF worse because his scoop percentage is horrible, something that no metric is going to adequately account for.

 

Simply put his defense is so bad he makes the entire IF worse which in turn hurts the pitching because the pitchers have to throw more pitches. He's better than he was, but that's not really saying much given how poor he was when he came up. He's also a much better athlete than people give him credit for, which makes his poor play all the more frustrating for me personally.

[CheezWizHed]

Anyway, back to Taylor Green. He'll be better than Brantley. I will win in the end.

 

That made me smirk (if its true, I'll smile).

[Hate those Rodents]

Bumping this thread. Green is up to a batting average of .302 after going two for three with two home runs Sunday. He's up to ten homeruns for the year.

 

Green may well be ready for the majors. Now, in saying that, that isn't to say he can't develop more in AAA. What I mean is he may be ready to hit major league pitchers decently and play good defense in the majors.

 

Very cool that Green is turning into a possible real good major league hitter. He was very well thought of 2-3 years ago then fell off a bit last year. It'd be nice if he could become a guy that can hit 20 or so major league homers with a good average and strong defense from the 3b spot.

[Funketown]

It's great to see Green mashing the way he is. By tomorrow morning his line will be pretty similar to Mat Gamel's.

 

I'm still not too fond of the idea of rushing him. I'm hoping he'll be able to stay in AAA this year for most of the rest of this season, although of course this may depend on McGehee rebounding a bit.

[Never Outhustled]

I think they have a nice oppurtunity to gage where Green is at with the DH coming into play later in the week. Green has a higher OPS than Gamel, and far better than what McGehee did in AAA. He's played his way into the picture with an OPS over 1.500 this month. Well done.

[brewmann04]

it nice to see Green having a solid season and i agree like to see him play the whole year at Nashville .

[1992casey]

Again, if you're calling him average, half to 3/4 of MLB first baseman are average. That's a weird bell curve.

 

Isn't half the average point?

The average point is the mean…

And the mid-point is the median. Average doesn't need to fall at the mid-point, and more often than not, it doesn't.

 

Here's a group of numbers: 10, 10, 8, 6, 3, 2, 2, 2, 1. The median (mid-point) is 3; the mean (average) is 4.9.

 

I can't speak to defense. But I believe it was Bill James who pointed out that on offense, there are more below average players than above. That means that an average offensive player would likely fall into the top half rather than just being ho hum.

[Oldcity]

It's frustrating that a team that is supposed to be all-in has 4 AAA players clearly better than the bottom four on the 25-man roster.

[homer]

I like Green a lot but I'd like to see some park adjusted stats from him before I get too excited. I've seen a lot of guys in the Pacific League have Nintendo numbers in AAA only to be quite pedestrian in the majors to get my hopes up. Green's home splits are good so that's encouraging.

[And That]

Nashville has a neutral to pitcher friendly ballpark. He has an 862 OPS there.

[And That]

And the mid-point is the median. Average doesn't need to fall at the mid-point, and more often than not, it doesn't.

 

Here's a group of numbers: 10, 10, 8, 6, 3, 2, 2, 2, 1. The median (mid-point) is 3; the mean (average) is 4.9.

 

I can't speak to defense. But I believe it was Bill James who pointed out that on offense, there are more below average players than above. That means that an average offensive player would likely fall into the top half rather than just being ho hum.

This has gotten way too far afield. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Prince is below the literal, technical average in the metrics I was referring to. With the average meaning, the average. And below meaning, below that average.

 

Al is saying the average is not the average, but is somewhere between the majority and almost everyone. Which doesn't make much sense.

 

Hence my point.

 

QED.

[Oxy]

This has gotten way too far afield. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Prince is below the literal, technical average in the metrics I was referring to. With the average meaning, the average. And below meaning, below that average.

 

Al is saying the average is not the average, but is somewhere between the majority and almost everyone. Which doesn't make much sense.

 

Hence my point.

 

QED.

That's just a mean post. The average meaning of this post means less than the average post that is mean. And that's really saying something. Lock it before I eat my toes.

[And That]

/mean mode

[TooLiveBrew]

Green would provide an upgrade over McGehee at the plate & in the field. Not only is this not going to happen, though, but Casey is going to continue to bat 5th.

[FVBrewerFan]

I really think RR will let McGehee play until the All Star break, and then make an evaluation. I would prefer to have Green finish the year in AAA, but this is about the Brewers, not Green. This is the all-in year, so at some point a change has to be made if McGehee keeps struggling this badly.

 

For that matter, Nieves needs to be replaced immediately and let the searcj begin for a SS.

[CheezWizHed]

Again, if you're calling him average, half to 3/4 of MLB first baseman are average. That's a weird bell curve.

 

Isn't half the average point?

The average point is the mean…

And the mid-point is the median. Average doesn't need to fall at the mid-point, and more often than not, it doesn't.

 

Here's a group of numbers: 10, 10, 8, 6, 3, 2, 2, 2, 1. The median (mid-point) is 3; the mean (average) is 4.9.

 

I can't speak to defense. But I believe it was Bill James who pointed out that on offense, there are more below average players than above. That means that an average offensive player would likely fall into the top half rather than just being ho hum.

But how will Chris Carpenter explain this to his son?

[homer]

Green would provide an upgrade over McGehee at the plate & in the field. Not only is this not going to happen, though, but Casey is going to continue to bat 5th.

Defensively I'll grant you. But I hesitate to say with any degree of certainty that a guy without one MLB at bat is going to do anything of note in the majors. Especially with the added pressure of a pennant race.

 

Having said that, I feel A LOT better about system depth if there were an injury to a big leaguer now than I did at the beginning of the season. At least with 3G (Game, Gindl, Green) you have some hope that they'll be above replacement level.

[MJLiverock]

Nashville has a neutral to pitcher friendly ballpark. He has an 862 OPS there.

 

Article in the Wall Street Journal on June 8th noted offense in AAA has been trending up as teams have pulled up the top pitching prospects or skipping AAA all together with them.

 

They had a chart showing

PCL IL

Runs/game OPS Runs/Game OPS

2009 9.76 0.769 8.59 .723

2010 10.43 0.780 9.02 .740

2011 11.21 0.804 8.87 .728

 

I'm not saying it means Green's numbers are inflated or anything, I just thought it was an interesting article on offenses generally being up in AAA. I wouldn't be against Green getting a look but I really wouldn't expect much more offense than Casey has been providing from him. Green's never faced ML pitching and didn't really tear up AA.

[endaround]

I think you don't realize quite how bad McGehee has been. He's at .225/.284/.321.

[homer]

I think you don't realize quite how bad McGehee has been. He's at .225/.284/.321.

Yes, that's how bad he's BEEN not necessarily what he'll do the rest of the season.

[topper09er]

If McGehee goes 0-3 or worse tonight his OPS will dip below .600.

 

It looks like his worst stretch last year was about May 20 - July 24,

 

56 G, 233 PA, 20 R, 18 RBI, 4 HR, 18 BB/38 SO, .231/.292/.340, OPS = .631

 

The difference is that he took his OPS from an All-star caliber .967 to a respectable and still better than expected .787.

[endaround]

Well no, but McGehee's ZiPs for the rest of the season is .261/.315/.401. Taylor's MLEs is .264/.329/.461

[umphrey]

I think it's a good thing that Roenicke gives guys like McGehee a chance to break out of a slump. He's proven capable of it and if he can start hitting he would offer a lot more than a AAA call up. Moving him in the line up can't be a bad thing though, same with off days. Why live with the crappy production right behind Prince? Little adjustments like changing his spot in the order and off days are things worth trying to break a slump anyway.

[homer]

Well no, but McGehee's ZiPs for the rest of the season is .261/.315/.401. Taylor's MLEs is .264/.329/.461

When someone can show me that ZiPs and MLE's are close to how things truly play out then I'll believe you. Not sure such a study exists.