Bring up Taylor Green?

[cwolf2012]

"If I were the Marlins I would IBB Fielder in any situation with 2 outs, except for bases loaded."

 

I hope they do this. I really really really hope they do this.

[Thurston Fluff]

I don't know what ZiPS does exactly but most projection systems use 3-5 years of production, weighting the most recent production more.

 

I did some looking up of Zips and got the basics but really never figured out the specifics. Knowing that you don't either makes me feel much better.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif Silly question but is there anywhere to see it's rate of success in it's predictions? Not overall but more for guys in their first two seasons. I get a Mark Kotsay, Yuni B type prediction based off such a large number. Patterns emerge as the numbers go up thus the predictive value goes up. Just not so sure it works that way for lesser ab's.

Doesn't really matter I guess they are what we have to work with. Just like to use the best ones so I ask questions.

 

This really comes down to when to pull the plug on someone. Three things that I think need to be answered before deciding is how likely the player is to bounce back, how good is the replacement likely to be and how does it play with other players?

Trying to know what someone is likely to do moving forward is something that relies on knowing the player. Metrics will tell you something but knowing the player's makeup is more important IMHO. But they are what we have objectively. He appears to be about average going forward but down from previous years. I figure he'll fall somewhere between the two going froward. All in all the league average would look good right now and he appears to be relatively likely to be that.

Defensively he's been bad. He was never good but better than this. I really have no idea of how to figure out the likelihood of him rebounding defensively to his norm. So not gonna touch it.

 

The real question is would Green be more likely to be better than league average? At this point the odds of him being better today are debatable at best. He could be league average or better over the next couple seasons and beyond. Today odds are less so. Mostly judging that by some of the other guys that came up a little early nothing more than that.

 

That leaves us with how it plays in the clubhouse. I think this is overall pretty minor in any particular instance. It should never be a reason to do something that doesn't help the team get better. That said it does matter in the big picture how you operate. At this point I think cutting the cord would be early. There really should be an obvious gain to be had. A month or two from now lets talk again.

[endaround]

The issue now is if Roenike is going to continually give McGehee days off then you're comparing Green to Counsell and that heavily favors Green.

[LouisEly]

We need a competent DH soon.

They already have two - Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun.

 

Particularly Braun, who has a semi-bum shoulder and will very likely get plenty of opportunity to rest his shoulder as a DH. Prince could use a few days of rest as well. So the Brewers need position players for the road interleague games for LF and 1B. I could see Gamel being called up to play 1B when Fielder DHs, but not so much Green.

[dadofandrew]

Fielder and Braun are both nearly average fielders. Neither is anywhere near a DH at this stage of the game.

 

Unless you see Gamel play 1B or LF, I think he'll DH during interleague, if they can find a roster spot for him.

[logan82]

Fielder and Braun are both nearly average fielders.

By what measure?

[Hate those Rodents]

I think Lou Ely is saying we should use the AL games as a chance to rest Braun or Prince from the field. I must say I could live with that. They deserve a breather.

[TooLiveBrew]

Fielder and Braun are both nearly average fielders.

By what measure?

You know, like how 9 is nearly 62

[And That]

Fielder and Braun are both nearly average fielders.

Braun you could make an argument on, but Fielder? Oof.

[dadofandrew]

Prince's UZR over the past three seasons is -4.5, which means he costs the team about 1.8 runs a year, compared to the average 1B.

 

The forest is tough to see, all those trees get in the way.

 

Next.

[And That]

Fielder's UZR/150 is the second worst in baseball amongst qualified first baseman since the beginning of the 2008 season.

 

Fielder's rank in Plus/Minus runs saved amongst first baseman - 2008: 32; 2009: 24; 2010: 34 (!!); 2011: 25

 

By your definition, virtually no first baseman would be below average.

 

Also, if you watch him play and seriously think he's average, well...

 

Quadruple, uber-oof.

 

Next.

[thebruce44]

Prince's UZR over the past three seasons is -4.5, which means he costs the team about 1.8 runs a year, compared to the average 1B.

 

The forest is tough to see, all those trees get in the way.

 

Next.

Wow, thats condescending even for you. Beyond what And That said, UZR doesn't take 1b scoops into account, something Prince is terrible at.

[Funketown]

Not to mention, UZR is by far the kindest to Fielder...Dewans has him at -17 over the past three years. Overall he's a -30 UZR in his career and a -50 in Dewans. He might have improved a little, but at 27 years old he'll only go downhill from here.

 

Not to mention that a slightly below average 1B is often a DH candidate.

[danzig6767]

Prince's UZR over the past three seasons is -4.5, which means he costs the team about 1.8 runs a year, compared to the average 1B.

 

The forest is tough to see, all those trees get in the way.

 

Next.

UZR doesn't take 1b scoops into account, something Prince is terrible at.

Prince is brutal at scooping bad throws out of the dirt and he's short, so some high throws that pull him of the bag would simply be caught easily by a taller firstbaseman.

 

He's obviously a fabulous hitter and his great offense trumps his many defensive shortcomings, but for anyone to think Prince is even close to being league average defensively, they'd have to be someone who ignores the stats and just started watching baseball a few days ago.

[logan82]

Prince's UZR over the past three seasons is -4.5, which means he costs the team about 1.8 runs a year, compared to the average 1B.

 

The forest is tough to see, all those trees get in the way.

 

Next.

UZR doesn't take 1b scoops into account, something Prince is terrible at.

Prince is brutal at scooping bad throws out of the dirt and he's short, so some high throws that pull him of the bag would simply be caught easily by a taller firstbaseman.

 

He's obviously a fabulous hitter and his great offense trumps his many defensive shortcomings, but for anyone to think Prince is even close to being league average defensively, they'd have to be someone who ignores the stats and just started watching baseball a few days ago.

or just likes to be contrary for the sake of being contrary.

[TheCrew07]

Well at least he got the folly part right, nothing much else to say.

[dadofandrew]

I feel Prince has improved as a 1B, and the numbers support that. From research at Fangraphs:

 

1st 3 years:-26 UZR, -33 DRS

Last 2.5 years:-4.5 UZR, -17 DRS

 

Since 2009, Konerko, Dunn, and Howard all have worse UZR's and DRS's than Prince. None are all that close. I prefer UZR because it simply passes the eye test better, I feel DRS exaggerates value, both positive and negative. I think we'll hear exactly that this winter, citing the same numbers, when Prince is a FA. I have little doubt he works hard at it, and has worked his way up to probably being about as good as he ever will be, given his physical limitations. He makes routine plays (42 errors in first 3 years, 12 in last 2.5). He even has more scoops of late (68 in first 3 years, 81 in last 2.5). I cannot look at those numbers and not admit change for the positive. Now, if you choose to ignore said improvement, say defensive metrics do not work, or work for everyone except Prince, you have every right to do so. I choose to take the numbers available and see if trends emerge.

 

Last offseason, many said the Brewers would be horrible defenders. I took a contrarian position, stating simply that 7 of 8 defenders were the same, and while I did not expect Yuni to be better than Alcides, any change was likely to be minimal. That made sense to me. Thus far, it has been accurate:

 

2010: -3.7 UZR (16th in MLB), -38 DRS, (27th)

2011: +0.5 UZR (15th), +10 DRS, (4th...yes 4th, despite many claims they are horrible...also note that most every team in MLB is "negative" in DRS, meaning to me, the baseline is off, hence my dislike)

 

Now, a few weeks ago, they were higher, but since then, Yuni and Casey have both struggled. The metrics match what has been seen.

 

Weeks was also defensively challenged when he arrived and has seen a similar obvious improvement. Many were slow to acknowledge his vastly better play at 2B as well, and in some cases, still are:

 

Since 2009: +5.2 UZR, -5 DRS

2007-8: -5.5 UZR, -12 DRS

2005-6:-23.3 UZR, -21 DRS

 

Again, it's steadily improving, and the math goes along with what I've seen. Again, some choose to ignore the metrics. I do not. Often, some choose to ignore the metrics only when they do not match a conclusion already arrived at. Prince is a bad 1B, so UZR is flawed for 1B...though it seems to work for Dunn and Howard, guys I'd put at the bottom of my list; and for Kotchman and Votto, guys with positive UZR, and good reputations at 1B. Same thing with Rickie, we still see the "move Rickie to CF" debate every year, despite the fact his numbers are solidly middle of the pack, if not higher. Old impressions die hard.

 

Prince will never be Doug Mien....wicz, who I saw play 1B for the Twins for years when we lived there. He was very good, and his +42 UZR and +40 DRS over his career indicates that. But, using the same criteria, Prince has improved, and is now plenty capable of being referred to as "average," or "passable," and many will. His defensive numbers have given folks ammo to use. At the very least, he has improved from where he once was. Failure to admit that is an option, but it's not what what I choose to do.

[monty57]

Do any of those "advanced metrics" take throwing into account? Prince has had multiple bad throws to home this season, IIRC two of them allowed the winning run to cross home plate. Do those "advanced metrics" take the high throws which pull Prince off the base into account? In the last week alone, there have been at least two runners who were (called) safe because Prince had to jump for a ball which most 1B would have been able to get to without jumping. Do they take scooping into account? Prince has never been very good at this, and I believe a lot of the errors on the IF are a direct result of this. For his size, Prince does have decent mobility, and "advanced metrics" seem to be very high on a player's range, so I could see how he could have improved there, but all told he's not very good.

 

The important thing for me, however, is that if we do indeed use the DH as a chance to rest Prince and Braun, we will likely see Mark Kotsay starting. I personally would rather they just call up Gamel to DH and maybe give him one game at 1B.

[topper09er]

2011: +0.5 UZR (15th), +10 DRS, (4th...yes 4th, despite many claims they are horrible...also note that most every team in MLB is "negative" in DRS, meaning to me, the baseline is off, hence my dislike)

I wonder how much of this is due to the dramatic shifting the Brewers do which I like a lot, infact I would say it is easily RRR's best strategical strength.

[Hate those Rodents]

Back on track, it's looking like Taylor Green is a legit prospect once again. If he can hit .290 and knock 20+ balls out of the park at AAA this year, we may have ourselves our third baseman of the future and undoubtedly will have a utility player for the big leagues.

[And That]

His defensive numbers have given folks ammo to use. At the very least, he has improved from where he once was. Failure to admit that is an option, but it's not what what I choose to do.

He's probably improved. It's incorrect to say that he's improved to average. Even using just the past 2.5 years of UZR data (which is less than the 3 years that you should use), he's still 12th of 17 qualified first baseman in UZR/150. Average UZR/150 in that time period is about 0.

 

And Plus/Minus still has him at well below average.

 

Again, if you're calling him average, half to 3/4 of MLB first baseman are average. That's a weird bell curve.

[Thurston Fluff]

Again, if you're calling him average, half to 3/4 of MLB first baseman are average. That's a weird bell curve.

 

Isn't half the average point?

[dadofandrew]

Prince has had multiple bad throws to home this season, IIRC two of them allowed the winning run to cross home plate. Do those "advanced metrics" take the high throws which pull Prince off the base into account?

The throws in question were, at best, hardly sure outs. Perfect throws may well not have got the runners. Lucroy also caught both well in front of the plate and had to swipe backwards. I doubt Prince has a quick release either. But again, people see what they want...they see a high throw and even if the foot is crossing the plate when the ball is caught, they want to blame someone. Hart, Braun, and Morgan have all beat throws home this year with the infield in, despite the claim of many that they should never go with the infield in.

 

As for how shifts affect, Yuni has about as many plays "out of zone" as he had all last season, so KC looks like they played straight away for everyone and maybe a step towards RF when Prince or his clone were up. The Royals have been an anti-modern club for ages, so that makes sense.

 

Shifts are just math, if a guy is going to hit it to area A 90% of the time, load up area A. Some insist on crying about that 10%. To me, it's like having the nuts in hold 'em on the turn and folding to an all-in bet because "he might hit his outs."

 

And, most defenders are about average, 0-10 runs over the course of 162 games. That's why only guys like Gomez and Dunn get talked about, for most, the difference is minimal.

[TooLiveBrew]

Whether anyone believes me or not, since I lobbied so hard for Gamel over McGehee, I really hope Casey gets back on track at the plate. That said, I'm glad Taylor Green has hit well enough to force this kind of discussion. If we're even talking about it on Brewerfan, I think you can pretty much guarantee the front office is well aware that Taylor is a viable alternative.

 

I think at some point, just as they did when McGehee forced his way into the starting 3B role in 2009, the Brewers have to say, 'ok, someone else deserves a shot'. Green can obviously outhit what McGehee's done so far, and can probably outhit the updated rest-of-season projection too (for whatever that's worth): .263/.317/.408/.725. Not to mention that he's a better defender.

[FVBrewerFan]

I just don't think it has to be a permanent decision. What's wrong with sending McGehee down to Nashville for 2-3 weeks? If he still really scuffles and Green hits well in Milwaukee, you keep him up for the rest of the year. Or, if McGehee "figures it out" he comes back up. Why does it have to be such a permanent move if Green comes up? They haven't burned any options on him yet. Just seems to me you have nothing to lose by trying this "experiment."

 

Finally, I have to say Wilson looks good at the plate. I'm sure he has a flaw that would eventually be uncovered or he would be starting already somewhere, but I wouldn't have a problem giving him a few starts at 3B (he can play 3B right?) if they don't want to bring Green up yet.