The 'other' Florida team: Organization-building role model?

[TooLiveBrew]

With their homegrown success, there's understandably been a lot of talk in recent years about the Tampa Bay Rays as a model franchise. However, the Brewers' opponent on this leg of the road trip really got me thinking. While the Rays have been the poster child for the modern approach to organization-building, what about the Marlins?

 

The Marlins obviously have the two World Series championships, but (imo) what stands out to me about the way they've been run is that they've continued to build a deep farm system, and post respectable W-L totals in the years since 2003 -- all without the benefit of being so miserable that they were drafting routinely in the top 5, like the Rays. It's astonishing to see just how long the Rays had to stock up their system with premium picks:

 

 TBR FLA '98: 29¹ 27 '99: 1 2 '00: 6 1² '01: 3 16³ '02: 2 11 '03: 1 16 '04: 4 27 '05: 8 16 '06: 3 19 '07: 1 12

¹ inaugural draft pick; lost as FA comp. for P Roberto Hernandez

² took Adrian Gonzalez, traded him to TEX as part of deal for Ugueth Urbina in '03

³ lost as FA comp for C Charles Johnson ²

 

I think everyone who frequents this forum knows well that 1st rounders aren't what makes a system deep, but obviously the Rays were picking higher in later rounds, too. The first round history is just a nice visual.

 

Over that same period of time, the respective winning percentages at the MLB level were .468 & .399. Of course, from 2008 onward, the Rays have seen a much better success rate, so have understandably garnered more attention.

 

My general thesis here is that the Marlins have been able to sustain a strong farm system & consistently cycle fresh talent up to the big leagues, just like the Rays in the past few seasons. However, the Marlins have been able to build while also contending, or at least putting a competitive product on the field. Ironically, the Marlins were the organization that drew fire for spending 'too little' on its MLB roster, relative to revenue sharing dollars.

 

So, ideally, now we discuss. Which organization do you believe is the better model for small or mid market teams to emulate? Or is there a different candidate? TheCrew07's recent post about organization-building in the MLB forum got me thinking about this, & I thought the conversation could be a bit more objective & emotion-free in this forum.

[TheCrew07]

I think everyone at least on this forum knows and understands my affinity for the Rays front office. I think however that in terms of your analysis, everything prior to 2003 is immaterial as a new ownership group and a much different way operating followed. It's like the flaws in comparing the Brewers prior to DM and JZ against another successful franchise. The disparity between draft position and ultimate results will be the same.

 

Another perhaps overlooked aspect of your analysis is how they both got to their first WS. The Marlins in 1997:

 

C - Chatles Johnson, 1st RD pick, 28th overall

1B - Jeff Conin, Expansion Draft, 22nd pick

2B - Louis Castillo, Amateur FA, DR

SS - Edgar Renteria, Amateur FA, Colombia

3B - Bobby Bonilla, FA 1996

LF - Moises Alou, FA 1996

CF - Devon White, FA 1995

RF - Gary Sheffield, Trade 1992, Sheffield & Rich Rodriguez for Adres Berumen, Trevor Hoffman, & Jose Martinez

 

SP - Kevin Brown, FA 1995

SP - Alex Fernandez, FA 1996

SP - Al Leiter, FA 1995

SP - Tony Saunders, Amateur FA 1992

SP - Pat Rapp, Expansion Draft, 10th pick

SP - Livan Hernandez, Amateur FA 1996, Cuba

 

I think it's fair to say the Marlins bought their first WS, they only had 2 SPs that they signed and developed, and that's a stretch in Hernandez' case. Only 3 of the starting position players were drafted/developed, 1 acquired through trade, the rest signed via FA or acquired via the expansion draft.

 

Everyone knows about the ensuing fire sale and how far the Marlins fell, going from 92 wins in '97 to 54 in '98. They used the talent acquired via the fire sale as well as high draft position to rebuild the team, never winning more than 81 games again until they won 91 games and the WS again in 2003.

 

Since that time they've been a pretty decent franchise, winning 83, 83, 78, 71, 84, 87, and 80 games. They haven't drafted exceedingly well, even though they had 5 1st RD picks in 2005, and 2 in 2006. Chris Coglan and his .771 OPS is the cream of that crop. They've had much better success after the 1st round, Mike Stanton was a 2nd round pick, is a beast, and was my favorite prospect in their system.

 

The thing that stands out to me the most is the excellent job they did jump starting their franchise in '95 and '96, winning the WS, then cycling that talent back around for another run in 2003, and then cycling that talent again for some of their current impact talent like Ramirez. They don't ever seem to hold on a player a year too long and I just can't say enough about how well the organization has turned impact talent into younger impact talent, time and time again.

 

However, most teams aren't going to be able to buy a WS and jump start the franchise the way the Marlins have, and I certainly want no part of a fire sale and MLB collapse like their fans experienced, I believe it's possible to cycle talent and remain competitive year in and year out without building the team through FA.

 

To me that's the major difference, the current front office in Tampa took a woefully managed franchise and turned it around by understanding the market and acquiring impact pitching talent through very shrewd trades while continuing to draft and develop talent. The Rays did very little through FA to get to where they are, operating exactly the way I'd hope the Brewers would some day operate, getting out in front of the market instead of playing one step behind it. The Marlins bought a championship, then did an excellent job cycling talent through a variety of avenues to achieve a fairly consistent level of success. 2 different ways to get to approximately the same point, though I feel the Rays are the stronger franchise at this point in time.

 

I would love to have either team's farm system, and it's hard to argue with the success the Marlins have had, even though the way they operated wasn't for me personally, they have 2 more WS titles than the Brewers do in a much shorter period of time. I certainly won't begrudge them their success. I also enjoy following the prospects of both teams, as their minor league teams play in many of the same leagues as our prospects do.

 

I'm not sure their is a right answer, I just wish the Brewers would have been able to cycle a Prince Fielder into a Mike Stanton (for example) like the Marlins have repeatedly done, most recently turning Beckett into Ramirez. The Brewers always seem to be operating the other way, trading away a continual stream of prospects for established MLB talent.

[Oxy]

I really don't think that one overarching philosophy or organizational strategy is any better than another. What makes the biggest difference is having a quality scouting department and drafting well with the picks that you get. Secondary to that is having a quality minor league coaching system that is able to polish the diamonds in the rough that they draft. If an organization is able to identify the type of talent that suits the coaches in their system, the odds of a player improving throughout the minors goes way up.

[TooLiveBrew]

The thing that stands out to me the most is the excellent job they did jump starting their franchise in '95 and '96, winning the WS, then cycling that talent back around for another run in 2003, and then cycling that talent again for some of their current impact talent like Ramirez. They don't ever seem to hold on a player a year too long and I just can't say enough about how well the organization has turned impact talent into younger impact talent, time and time again.

 

This is what stands out to me as well, & especially the bolded part. I see currently, Larry Beinfest is the Pres. of Baseball Operations, & Michael Hill is the GM. Obivously Dave Dombrowski was the GM who presided over the '97 WS title, & ensuing (owner-mandated) firesale. I'm not sure who was the GM in-between.

 

 

However, most teams aren't going to be able to buy a WS and jump start the franchise the way the Marlins have

 

Without question, that was an extremely unique situation. And I didn't intend to overlook or omit the '97 squad. I just assumed everyone was familiar with how store-bought that team was.

 

 

I think everyone at least on this forum knows and understands my affinity for the Rays front office. I think however that in terms of your analysis, everything prior to 2003 is immaterial as a new ownership group and a much different way operating followed.

 

The Marlins were sold to John Henry after the '98 season, & then to Jeffrey Loria in 2002. It would seem the Marlins had a new way of operating post-Huizenga, and especially after Loria bought the team. It's tricky to try to just compare the teams from 2003 (or so) on imo.

 

 

To me that's the major difference, the current front office in Tampa took a woefully managed franchise and turned it around by understanding the market and acquiring impact pitching talent through very shrewd trades while continuing to draft and develop talent.

 

Who are the impact pitchers they acquired via trade aside from Garza? I'm honestly asking.

[TheCrew07]

Edwin Jackson from the Dodgers, he was the first to get spun away and Scott Kazmir from the Mets, who was the 2nd pitcher they spun away.

 

Jackson became Matt Joyce, who for some reason I compare to Corey Hart all the time in my head.

 

Kazmir became Alexander Torres who will be the next young pitcher waiting for a rotation slot for that team. He's a LHP, sits 91-93, reaches 95, with a FB that sinks and runs. He also has a plus change and a curve which he's been working on for a couple of years. He's a starter now and like all pitchers without a 3rd plus pitch there's rumblings that he ends up in the back of the BP. Personally, I believe the Rays will give him a shot as a starter before moving him, he has more value as a trade piece as a SP.

 

edit. I said 2003 for the Rays because they woefully mismanaged for a long time, while Florida has consistently cycled talent regardless of ownership or FO. I like the way they operated post 2003 much so than post 1997, I think comparing the 2 franchises post 2003 is more relative to the Brewers situation.

[TooLiveBrew]

Edwin Jackson from the Dodgers, he was the first to get spun away and Scott Kazmir from the Mets, who was the 2nd pitcher they spun away.

 

Jackson & Kazmir aren't what I think of when I think of your high standards for impact pitching. Big arms, yes, but IMPACT? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif The trade to bring in Joyce was nice, but obviously that wasn't a shrewd trade for impact pitching, that was turning Jackson into an OF. I guess we will have to wait & see on Torres, what I know about him consists of the paragraph you were kind enough to write up on him here.

 

Really the only pitcher I see that the Rays traded for who'd qualify from what I've read & understood to be your standard of impact pitching would be Matt Garza. The Jackson->Joyce flip has been a nice trade for TB, no question. But to say that part of the Rays' model has been to acquire impact-caliber pitching through shrewd trades implies more than one or maybe two guys imo. I just don't think it's fair to hold that against an org. like Milwaukee, even though I won't disagree with you for a second that the Brewers should absolutely be spinning guys approaching 30 into prospects as opposed to the other way around. I just don't think the Rays' excellent pitching staff has much to do with their ability to trade; it has more to do with drafting high, having good luck, and developing pitchers well.

 

 

I said 2003 for the Rays because they woefully mismanaged for a long

time, while Florida has consistently cycled talent regardless of

ownership or FO. I like the way they operated post 2003 much so than

post 1997, I think comparing the 2 franchises post 2003 is more relative

to the Brewers situation.

 

Fair enough. Conveniently, the Marlins turned the F.O. over in almost the same year, so it's definitely doable.

[TheCrew07]

Hmm, I didn't explain that very well apparently.

 

Edwin Jackson, the #4 overall BA prospect in 2004, #30 in 2005 had/has impact talent, he was essentially acquired for a RP. Very few starting pitchers throw as hard or have the raw stuff as he does. While he's the epitome of the effectively wild concept, the Rays only hung onto him until they needed to make room for David Price and Jeff Niemann. Knowing that they had Davis and Hellickson coming, they spun him for a greater position of need within the organization. Jackson has never really fulfilled his potential, but he pitched well enough to contribute to a WS run and be spun off again for a decent corner OF. Going from a RP, to a #5 pitcher, to a quality corner OF is a pretty good chain of events. The gulf between Jackson's physical gifts and his ultimate results doesn't diminish what he was at the time of the trade. The Rays WS rotation in 2008 only had 2 home grown starters, Shields and Sonnanstine.

 

Kazmir was their #1 pitcher for years, a #1 in the same sense that Yo was our number 1. When he was good he was always more of a #2, but I've said many times I'd rather 5 #2 type pitchers in the rotation than worry about acquiring a true ace. I'm sure you are aware that he was acquired for Victor Zambrano in 2004, who was out of MLB by 2007 at age 31. Then once his abrupt decline started TB traded him for Alex Torres, that's a heck of a return for a pitcher who pitched his way out of the rotation being replaced by Wade Davis. Torres has Yo like velocity but is LH, he's impact talent. They dumped Zambrano at the perfect time, rode Kazmir till dumping him at the perfect time, and a acquired a very nice LHP prospect in return. That's cycling talent very effectively from where I'm sitting. Both Kazmir and Torres are/were superior talents to Zambrano.

 

So my point was that acquiring Jackson who was as impact as prospect pitching gets stuff wise and acquiring Kazmir who headlined their rotation where very shrewd moves, given what it cost them to acquire the talent. Jackson was spun for an appropriate piece given the way he's produced and what TB had coming through the minors, and with both the Kazmir and Garza trades the organization has cycled impact pitching. I know Archer has struggled to start the year, but it's hard to hold that against him considering what Peralta and Rogers haven't done. TB traded for young pitching when everyone else was chasing OBP and SLG through the early 2000s, and when the market turned towards pitching Friedman was able to exploit the organization's surplus of pitching to fill holes in the organization elsewhere.

 

Both Florida teams plan well long-term, for example they don't trade a Hardy and then trade Escobar to end up with Bentancourt in a 3 year window. In fact neither team dumps young cost controlled talent the way the Brewers have for Sabathia, Marcum, and Greinke. Both teams cycle talent the other way, trading established MLB talent at the appropriate time for younger & cheaper talent. You may recall that I've said I don't think good GMs make either the Marcum or Greinke trades, because the GMs that I consider to be the best in the game simply haven't ever made those kind of moves, and rightfully so. GMs of the more financially well off teams do all the time, the teams that get all the press (NYY, NYM, LAD, BOS, etc),but they also can afford to bid for and win impact talent in FA to plug holes, something the rest of MLB isn't able to do. Making those kinds of trades doesn't legitimize a small market franchise, they paralyze a small franchise over the long-term, and that's all Melvin has done here.

 

If you look back to the Jack Z threads you'll see that I was worried about Seid replacing Z (even though I do like Seid, but he's running out of time) because the scouting department lost so many quality people over a 3 year period. I was concerned about the organization's ability to replenish the talent well. The drafts haven't been going very well at all, and Melvin has continued to trade away what little talent we had left in the system. Now we're left with a barren minor league system, an unproven (at best) scouting director, and a GM who doesn't effectively evaluate talent unless he can trade for CY quality veteran MLB players. I hate to be so negative as that's really not my personality, but I just don't see any hope for the future at this time. I haven't been this depressed as a Brewer fan since 2002, and I shouldn't be because the MLB team is winning, and I probably wouldn't be if I hadn't found Brewerfan and become more educated on the Minor Leagues and baseball in general. Ignorance was truly bliss...

 

In the end I'm haunted by this thought... Milwaukee has a strong MLB team and an incredibly weak organization at this point, and it didn't have to be this way.

 

edit. I just wanted to add that I really enjoy our give and take TLB.

[TooLiveBrew]

Hmm, I didn't explain that very well apparently.

 

Nope, you did, but I got my transaction order all messed up. As unbelievable as it is, I actually forgot about the infamous Zambrano-Kazmir trade. For some stupid reason, I had the Rays acquiring Kazmir from LAA, when it was the other way around. And similarly for Jackson, I forgot that they got him when he was still considered a prospect. Thanks for fleshing those out... I should've been on top of those, though, in a discussion specific to TB & FLA.

 

 

Both teams cycle talent the other way, trading established MLB talent at the appropriate time for younger & cheaper talent.

 

Yes, and unfortunately I think the reason I noted 'differences' between FLA & TB is that I set the window too large, & flat-out didn't remember TB's trading history correctly. The main thing that stood out to me over the past decade+ is that the Marlins have been a pretty successful small-/mid-market franchise in the long term view, but haven't had the luxury of drafting as high as the Rays did. That's really what started this ball rolling in my head.

 

 

I haven't been this depressed as a Brewer fan since 2002, and I shouldn't be because the MLB team is winning, and I probably wouldn't be if I hadn't found Brewerfan and become more educated on the Minor Leagues and baseball in general. Ignorance was truly bliss...

 

I know what you mean on blissful ignorance. I don't share your level of depression, but I do recognize that the cupboard is bare, and that Melvin hasn't shown any indication that he's about to start selling high on his players to build more than short-term windows of success.

 

 

I just wanted to add that I really enjoy our give and take TLB.

 

Yeah, same here.

[Mass Haas]

I haven't been this depressed as a Brewer fan since 2002

I feel sorry for you, truly.

 

Whether live, DVR, or XM radio driving around in my car, I haven't missed an inning this year, and I don't plan on doing so.

 

I have followed this team since 1973, was 19 years old when Willie McGee broke my heart, and have embraced this season prepared to soak in every precious moment. I'll be ten rows behind the Brewer dugout for two Fenway games.

 

I am ready to bask in the ultimate glory, while still knowing the team could finish one game out of the postseason. I am mentally prepared for that too.

 

If this is about to be the defining season of my baseball fandom, then I am all in as well.

 

Tim Dillard has been a Brewer since 2003. Soak in his sunshine tonight. Think about the bargain that is Rickie Weeks. Ryan Braun is your generation's Robin Yount. Consider John Axford's magical journey via a scout's blizzard persistence. I could go on.

 

And then crack a smile. And enjoy. See you in October, hope you're having fun by then.

 

Sorry to be harsh.

[TheCrew07]

You weren't harsh Mass, and I certainly respect your opinion. Like you I do hope for the best, because if it doesn't happen now, it's not going to happen anytime soon. So far the turn of events has favored the Brewers with significant injuries and/or collapses elsewhere, we just need that to continue throughout the summer.

[LouisEly]

If you look back to the Jack Z threads you'll see that I was worried about Seid replacing Z (even though I do like Seid, but he's running out of time) because the scouting department lost so many quality people over a 3 year period.

 

The second part of this sentence (after the word "because") should not be overlooked. The scouting department was so good that they lost many people to promotions to other organizations. You had people who were promoted, but the people they were reporting to were newly promoted to their positions as well. That type of turnover makes it difficult to maintain success.

 

Melvin hasn't shown any indication that he's about to start selling high on his players to build more than short-term windows of success.

I don't think the Brewers have achieved Mark A.'s definition of "success" yet. Thus the reason they made the trades for Grienke and Marcum. Yes, they've gutted the farm system to acquire those two (along with Sabathia), however they now have Type A players whose contracts are up this year or next who at the minimum they will get two high draft picks if they leave or quality prospects if they are traded.

 

If the season ended today, the Brewers would be in the playoffs...

[trwi7]

If they were traded would Melvin get quality prospects in return? The last time he traded an impending free agent that would have given us two draft picks he gave up Lee and Cruz and got back back Cordero, Mench and Nix. That's not exactly quality prospects or even quality major league players.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't think the Brewers have achieved Mark A.'s definition of "success" yet. Thus the reason they made the trades for Grienke and Marcum. Yes, they've gutted the farm system to acquire those two (along with Sabathia), however they now have Type A players whose contracts are up this year or next who at the minimum they will get two high draft picks if they leave or quality prospects if they are traded.

 

If the season ended today, the Brewers would be in the playoffs...

 

I don't understand what this has to do with what you quoted from me & responded to. That the potential comp picks via Greinke & Marcum in FA are Melvin turning players near 30 into prospects? Not exactly what I meant.