Ryan Braun: Best Brewers Player Ever?

[bucksman4]

After Ryan Braun signed his long-term contract extension ensuring he would be a Brewer for a very long time, it got me to thinking...if he can keep up his current statistical pace for years to come, could we be watching the player we end up calling the "best" player to ever wear a Milwaukee Brewers uniform?

 

I'd like to hear your opinions. Trust me, I know MVP Robin Yount, who is a career Brewer will surely be a tough person to ever pass, but say Braun leads this team to a World Series and racks up an MVP or two, could we very well end up considering him the best?

[logan82]

Let's wait a decade before we make any decisions. I think we will be lucky if Braun is healthy enough to not miss a couple seasons.

[splitterpfj]

Yes, we could be watching the "Best Brewer Ever", but it's way too soon to know that.

 

Durability is key, for one thing, I think Paul Molitor was a better player than Robin, but Paul was hurt time and again.

 

Here's to ten more healthy seasons, and another statue outside Miller Park!

[Funketown]

I seriously doubt he'll have a better overall career than Yount.

 

If this conversation is changed to "Best Brewers Hitter Ever", it becomes more interesting. Unless Fielder sticks around (not going to happen, please no thread derail!), I think Braun has a very good chance to be the greatest Brewers hitter ever.

[BrewersSuperCollector]

Braun could end up the best ever, but as others said injuries is the huge factor. In a few years will he be able to overcome some possible injuries or will he wilt because of them? I personally think he has the attitude to overcome the injuries.

[gregmag]

Using OPS+ as a quick and dirty comparison on offense, and assuming his numbers this year don't tank, Braun's career so far is almost a dead match for Yount's five best seasons, if you cherry-picked them and put them together. That fact bodes pretty well for Braun's chances to have a more valuable offensive career than Yount. Yount's a little hard to assess, because he started at 18 and aged fairly rapidly. He was a great hitter from 1980 to 1989; for his other ten seasons he was a bit below average in the aggregate. But Braun will never touch Yount's defensive value.

 

Molitor didn't quite match Yount's peaks, but he was a consistently productive hitter for an amazingly long time. Braun, or anybody, will have a hard time matching Molitor's longevity.

[jjfanec]

Let's wait a decade before we make any decisions. I think we will be lucky if Braun is healthy enough to not miss a couple seasons.

Braun missed 20 games combined the last 3 years so I am wondering why you think we will be lucky for him to not miss a couple seasons. He seems to have little injuries like any guy but plays through them pretty well. He is very well conditioned and has never had a history of major injuries. I am not sure why we would assume he will start to be hurt a lot.

 

Now I dont think he is near being talked about as the best ever because of how good Yount was. He has a ways to go before he gets there if he ever does

[logan82]

Let's wait a decade before we make any decisions. I think we will be lucky if Braun is healthy enough to not miss a couple seasons.

Braun missed 20 games combined the last 3 years so I am wondering why you think we will be lucky for him to not miss a couple seasons. He seems to have little injuries like any guy but plays through them pretty well. He is very well conditioned and has never had a history of major injuries. I am not sure why we would assume he will start to be hurt a lot.

 

Now I dont think he is near being talked about as the best ever because of how good Yount was. He has a ways to go before he gets there if he ever does

He has had oblique problems for a couple years now. Sure he plays through them. Plays through them well, not so sure about that. He had a couple not so good months last year after being hit by a pitch. You have to worry about his oblique sapping his power at some point.

 

I never said he would be hurt a lot. Every single player is an injury risk. He has to play a very long time to measure up to Yount and Molitor. The odds are not good that he will play that long.

[RockCoCougars]

Obviously if nothing catastrophic happens, he's going to obliterate the team home run record, but it's going to take a good decade of solid baseball to get close to most of Yount's totals. He could average 200 hits and 100 runs per season for the next 10 years, and would still fall short of Yount. We aren't even considering the defense, 2 MVP's and WS appearance that Yount has. In my view, Yount is the 'best Brewer'. Molitor was a better hitter than Robin, but he had the injury issues and was nothing special in the field (when he played there).

[BCZF]

He seems to take pride in his conditioning, which will help as far as long term health, but I agree too early to make pronouncements.

[jjfanec]

Let's wait a decade before we make any decisions. I think we will be lucky if Braun is healthy enough to not miss a couple seasons.

Braun missed 20 games combined the last 3 years so I am wondering why you think we will be lucky for him to not miss a couple seasons. He seems to have little injuries like any guy but plays through them pretty well. He is very well conditioned and has never had a history of major injuries. I am not sure why we would assume he will start to be hurt a lot.

 

Now I dont think he is near being talked about as the best ever because of how good Yount was. He has a ways to go before he gets there if he ever does

He has had oblique problems for a couple years now. Sure he plays through them. Plays through them well, not so sure about that. He had a couple not so good months last year after being hit by a pitch. You have to worry about his oblique sapping his power at some point.

 

I never said he would be hurt a lot. Every single player is an injury risk. He has to play a very long time to measure up to Yount and Molitor. The odds are not good that he will play that long.

You said we would be lucky if Braun does not miss a couple full seasons. That seems like a lot of injury time. He did struggle for a while playing through his injury last year so you are right about that. However, I just thought it was weird to say we would be lucky if he does not miss a couple season when he might have been DL once in his career if ever.

[BrewCrewForever]

He has a great shot to be the best Brewer ever. But it will be hard to pass Yount and Molitor. I would probably put him 3rd right now ahead of Cooper and Fielder. I think if Braun stays healthy he has a great chance to be a Hall of Famer. If he does that he will be right there with Yount and Molitor. I love Braun.

[ilovebeer]

No. As of right now Braun is #2 behind Robin. As long as Braun stays healthy and winat least 2 mvp Robin and Brain will be 1a and 1b.

[JoeHova]

By WAR, the best 2 Brewers by a landslide are Yount (76.9) and Molitor (60.6). That fits with conventional wisdom, I'm pretty sure. No other Brewer (hitter or pitcher) is above 30. Braun is at 17.3 for his career so far. Yount has 3 of the top 7 individual Brewer position player seasons by WAR, Braun has none of the top 10 (Molitor has 1).

 

I think Yount has Braun handily beat in terms of peak and in terms of career value. Yount's an all-time great player, perhaps not in the inner circle of the Hall of Fame, but just outside of it. His 1982 is one of the best seasons by any player ever. The only shortstop to have ever had a better season is probably Honus Wagner. I'd like to see Braun have an MVP caliber season (he's off to a great start this year but he has to keep it up for 105 more games) before I'm willing to compare him to Yount.

[Ennder]

I will say this, winning an MVP or going to a world series has absolutely nothing at all to do with if Braun is the best Brewer ever or not. Winning an MVP wouldnt' make me think Braun is a better player, that is the same kind of thing that leads to people miss-ranking QB's so badly because they seem to think Super Bowls are an individual achievement.

[TheCrew07]

You said we would be lucky if Braun does not miss a couple full seasons. That seems like a lot of injury time. He did struggle for a while playing through his injury last year so you are right about that. However, I just thought it was weird to say we would be lucky if he does not miss a couple season when he might have been DL once in his career if ever.

I think a couple of you are taking "a couple of seasons" in a literal context, as in he'll miss entire seasons. The most likely scenario injury wise is that he suffers a catastrophic injury at some point that will end a season or 2... a broken bone, a bad muscle tear, whatever... Then when you start throwing in DL stints here and there as he gets older it's certainly plausible that he loses 2 years worth of ABs over the course of his career.

 

The risk of injury goes up with age. Our medical staff won an award (which I think was a joke btw) because the Brewers had the least amount of DL time that one season, but it didn't really have anything to do with them, it was related to the fact that we had a very young team approaching it's peak. Those types of players are injured far less than players 5 to 6 years older than them. Do you think Cleveland fans were anticipating Sizemore becoming injury prone? It just happens, and the risk goes up significantly, in fact exponentially, with age.

 

The chance of injury lessens every year from 18 to the player's physical peak(when they physical mature) which is typically around age 24, then begins increasing exponentially becoming a very steep curve past age 30. The injury nexus looks somewhat like a capital U with the midpoint centered on physical maturity.

 

In the end people are going to believe what they want to believe, and yes some players defy the odds and stay much healthier over their careers. The injury nexus is the biggest reason I don't want to sign older players to contracts, when you add in declining physical abilities which leads to a decline in overall production, I see no reason to build around veteran players at all. That is why steroids were so import to aging players, the drugs allowed players to recover faster and keep playing at high level longer. Sure players hit more home runs, that was a large part of the impact the general public is willing to accept, but don't discount the injury impact of steroids.

 

Whether or not Braun becomes the best Brewer ever depends entirely on how healthy he is later in his career, it's that simple. Without pharmaceutical help he's at the mercy of his genetics and how much good fortune he has injury wise, like players in the past. It's a long road, and as all that money is guaranteed, we all need to hope he has good fortune and stays healthy and productive as long as possible.

[jjfanec]

You said we would be lucky if Braun does not miss a couple full seasons. That seems like a lot of injury time. He did struggle for a while playing through his injury last year so you are right about that. However, I just thought it was weird to say we would be lucky if he does not miss a couple season when he might have been DL once in his career if ever.

I think a couple of you are taking "a couple of seasons" in a literal context, as in he'll miss entire seasons. The most likely scenario injury wise is that he suffers a catastrophic injury at some point that will end a season or 2... a broken bone, a bad muscle tear, whatever... Then when you start throwing in DL stints here and there as he gets older it's certainly plausible that he loses 2 years worth of ABs over the course of his career.

 

The risk of injury goes up with age. Our medical staff won an award (which I think was a joke btw) because the Brewers had the least amount of DL time that one season, but it didn't really have anything to do with them, it was related to the fact that we had a very young team approaching it's peak. Those types of players are injured far less than players 5 to 6 years older than them. Do you think Cleveland fans were anticipating Sizemore becoming injury prone? It just happens, and the risk goes up significantly, in fact exponentially, with age.

 

The chance of injury lessens every year from 18 to the player's physical peak(when they physical mature) which is typically around age 24, then begins increasing exponentially becoming a very steep curve past age 30. The injury nexus looks somewhat like a capital U with the midpoint centered on physical maturity.

 

In the end people are going to believe what they want to believe, and yes some players defy the odds and stay much healthier over their careers. The injury nexus is the biggest reason I don't want to sign older players to contracts, when you add in declining physical abilities which leads to a decline in overall production, I see no reason to build around veteran players at all. That is why steroids were so import to aging players, the drugs allowed players to recover faster and keep playing at high level longer. Sure players hit more home runs, that was a large part of the impact the general public is willing to accept, but don't discount the injury impact of steroids.

 

Whether or not Braun becomes the best Brewer ever depends entirely on how healthy he is later in his career, it's that simple. Without pharmaceutical help he's at the mercy of his genetics and how much good fortune he has injury wise, like players in the past. It's a long road, and as all that money is guaranteed, we all need to hope he has good fortune and stays healthy and productive as long as possible.

That makes sense. So he is essentially saying over the next ten years we are lucky if Braun doesnt miss 320 games or so? So 30 a year for the next 10. I can see that I guess.

[TheCrew07]

If you want to average it that way sure... but historically the bulk of time will likely come over the last 5-6 years. Again he could defy the odds, but on the other hand he seems to have nagging injuries on regular basis now. I'm more of a "when an injury will happen" as opposed to "if an injury will happen" type of person, I view injuries as inevitable.

 

Ryan does work hard to keep himself physically fit, and physical fitness does tend to lengthen careers. Hopefully he can overcome the odds and stay healthy and productive for the duration of his contract, because the Brewers really can't afford dead money on the books.