The Upcoming Trip to Cincinnati and Florida...

[splitterpfj]

OK, after two months of play, the Brewers certainly do look like playoff contenders.

 

The one huge issue to this point - with all respect to the Crew...they've stunk on the road.

 

This next trip takes them to Cincinnati and Florida, to face two more contenders, one of whom has driven this team nuts over the last two seasons. It would be fair to look at this trip and say, "This is the Brewers' chance to really show they belong in the race."...it would be just as fair to look at it and say, "Just when things were looking up..."

 

The two series' may have distinctly different personalities...the Reds both score and allow plenty of runs - the Marlins have shown some of the best pitching in the league to date. I'll put the Crew at 4-3 on this trip, I think they're playing the Reds at the right time, and they'll finally take two of three in Cincy. I think they'll split the four games in Florida, in four games that could have gone either way.

 

What are your expectations for the next week?

[Hofbraunhaus]

The success of the past couple weeks has certainly gotten my hopes up high. I feel right now like they should go 7-0. However, they have been awful on the road so far and playing 2 good teams (although Cincy has been struggling a bit lately) so my expectation is 4-3 as well. I will be disappointed with that result though because I think they are definitely capable of staying hot.

[Oxy]

I will be very happy with a winning road trip, but expect to go 3-4. A 2-5 trip would be disappointing, but even that wouldn't really be the end of the world. I kind of view this trip as one that could possibly cement their status as one of the best teams in the National League if they continue to perform like they have over the last 19 games, but won't really say a whole lot if they don't do that well (barring an 0-7 trip).

[PrinceEatMeat]

I think they'll stay hot and go 5-2. Definitely need to go at least 4-3 though. Can't have another losing road trip.

[Warning Track Power]

4-3 should be the realistic goal. Winning the series in Cincinnati would be a huge moral boost. Florida may be the most talented team in the NL so a split would be great. Cincinnati, arguably, may be the 2nd most. I would be ecstatic with a 4-3 trip and would be ok with a 3-4 trip.

[treego]

I think the Brewers will do as well on the road against FLA and CIN as they would if they were facing them at home right now. Baseball results should not fluctuate wildly based on game location. I think home field advantage is for basketball, primarily, where adrenaline from fan reaction can really peak performance insanely. I don't see home field advantage in baseball much at all. Any facts about home field advantage in baseball over the years that is really noteworthy?

[1992casey]

I think that one of our gurus told us that given a large enough sample, a .500 team would likely be at about .540 at home and .460 on the road.

[Blancofan1]

I think the Brewers will do as well on the road against FLA and CIN as they would if they were facing them at home right now. Baseball results should not fluctuate wildly based on game location. I think home field advantage is for basketball, primarily, where adrenaline from fan reaction can really peak performance insanely. I don't see home field advantage in baseball much at all. Any facts about home field advantage in baseball over the years that is really noteworthy?

You are thinking fan advantage correct? I would say that have the last at bats of the game is a huge advantage. Three games that come into mind where home field advantage was important may be

opening day--Reds beat us on a walk off homer

14 inning win vs. Rockies last week--walk off homer from Prince

Friday night vs. the Giants--walk off suicide squeeze

Back to the topic at hand, I think a 5-2 road trip is certainly possible and would be given a boost if Josh Johnson makes a couple of minor league starts and misses that series. The Reds look beatable right now, which the Brewers really need to take advantage of given the past few year's results. The Marlins are a very solid team, but with the Brewer starters pitching as well as they have the past three weeks or so, I think winning 3 of 4 in Florida is certainly achievable.

 

[derflotr]

They'll regress to the mean somewhat, I mean .800 baseball is unattainable. But I'll take 3 of 7 if it means that the 3 are against Cincinnati. They have to start beating the Reds.

[TooLiveBrew]

What are your expectations for the next week?

 

I'll drink your Kool-Aid, too, and go with 4-3. But secretly I'll still hope for 5-2.

[Joseph]

You guys have every reason to expect a series win in Cincy for the first time in a while. Our pitching is beat to hell and the bats aren't doing much at all.

[Invader3K]

I hate to be a pessimist, but I think they'll regress somewhat. I think they'll go 3-4, which is still an accomplishment given how bad they've been as a road team.

[joepepsi]

Greinke and Marcum start 2 of 3 in Cincy. Greinke and Yo start 2 in Florida. Isay they win 3 of these 4, and pick up another one along way, 4-3. Hopefully Greinke's luck start to reflect his K:BB ration and K rate.

[Thurston Fluff]

I wonder how long the residual effects of that 19 inning game will last for the Reds. Hopefully one more series. That was an entire extra game they played other teams don't have to so that may have an effect on the Reds for a while. Overall I think the road woes are more coincidence than anything. Pitchers like Greinke, Marcum and Yo can pitch well anywhere and our offense is slowly but surly getting healthy. The only real issue with how they play on the road could be if it gets in their heads. It seems like RRR has reframed the focus from road vs home to how they are playing at the moment which might be a way to make sure it doesn't become mental a problem.

 

All that said getting out of any trip 4-3 would make me very happy. More so against two very good teams.

 

You guys have every reason to expect a series win in Cincy for the first time in a while. Our pitching is beat to hell and the bats aren't doing much at all.

 

Trying to curse us?http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/devil.gif Please forweard me a lock of hair so I can hex you back.. Seriously though that sort of worries me. All team go through slumps like the Reds are in but few teams as good as they are stay in them long. Crossing my fingers it's at least two more games, hopefully three, before they get back on track.

[davego]

I'd be pleased with two against the Reds. Not getting swept in Miami would also be nice. The starting pitching on this team "should" be good enough to avoid anything really silly happening.

[COBrewerfan]

I will take 3 on this trip but with the pitching the way it is I think 4 is the minimum here. After that it is just a bonus.

[markedman5]

I believe that Johnson is still hurt and we might miss him in Florida which would be huge. Is Chapman expected back for our series with the reds?

[pebadger]

If the Astros take down the Cubs this afternoon, the Brewers wll have the worst road record in the National League heading into play tonight. They're going to have to to prove to me that their position in that regard (with a full 25% of the schedule under their belts) is not a fluke.

 

As the stats showed during yesterday's telecast, the pitching has actually been better on the road this season (from an ERA perspective) than it has at Miller Park. Until they put together a complete series on the road, I think it's more than fair to be skeptical. You can play as well as you want; it's results that matter (see, e.g. the Packers being fairly fortunate to make the playoffs despite never trailing by more than a TD the entire season). Other than the really bad road trip in which the Crew was just awful, they have played some decent road baseball at times. They have just found ways to lose. When they start finding ways to win, as they have at home, they'll really have something going. Then they have to continue to prove that their HOME record can be sustained well above .500 also.

[Ennder]

They're going to have to to prove to me that their position in that regard (with a full 25% of the schedule under their belts) is not a fluke.

 

They can't prove anything isn't a fluke over 81 games much less like 25 games or whatever it is. Home/Road splits just vary way too wildly to read too much into them.

 

I expect us to win 2 games, we are playing teams that might be better than us on the road (where all teams expect to lose more than they win). Has very little to do with how this years team has done in a meaningless sample of games though.

[Warning Track Power]

Just as a side note to this road trip...this team is too old to be having this type of problem on the road. If this were 2007 or even 2008 I'd be able to understand the road woes a little more, but the core of this team are all veterans now. They aren't 2nd or 3rd year guys. The fact that we are so bad on the road is pretty inexcusable if you ask me.

[Oldcity]

People are overreacting to a third of a season's worth of games. Goofy things happen in small sample sizes, and in all likelihood, things will head back toward the mean. One thing to consider that might be having an impact is they've played more bad teams at home than on the road.

[rluzinski]

I think that one of our gurus told us that given a large enough sample, a .500 team would likely be at about .540 at home and .460 on the road.

Adding 4% to the overall record is the rule of thumb. BR.net averages them by the whole wins and losses but you can find them here:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2010-standings.shtml

Average MLB Home Records:

2010: 45-35 (.563) <-- probably should be dividing by 81 to get W%, not 80

2009: 44-36 (.550)

2008: 45-35 (.563)

2007: 43-37 (.538)

2006: 44-36 (.550)

 

For example, if the Brewers are a true 87 win team, that's a .531 W%. We'd expect about a .491 W% from them on the road going forward (assuming average opponents).

[Mays Hayes]

Just as a side note to this road trip...this team is too old to be having this type of problem on the road. If this were 2007 or even 2008 I'd be able to understand the road woes a little more, but the core of this team are all veterans now. They aren't 2nd or 3rd year guys. The fact that we are so bad on the road is pretty inexcusable if you ask me.

 

Just last season we won 45.6% of our road games and we only won 47.5% of our total games. There is no reason we should be as bad on the road as we have been so far this year, but there's also no reason why we should be at good as home as we have this year either.

 

I guarantee our road win PCT will improve drastically, but we're not going to continue to win 75% of our home games. The 2 adjustments over time will probably end up being a wash in total PCT.

[pebadger]

Or maybe there is a reason, or lots of reasons, and maybe we just aren't able to quantify it/them or otherwise provide some objective identification of those reasons.

[razzzorsharp]

4-2 so far, not bad at all.