Greinke Really Does Get Stronger as Game Goes On?

[rluzinski]

It's somewhat of a baseball cliche when an announcer says that a starting pitcher is getting stronger as the game goes on. On average, starting pitchers perform substantially worse as they work through the order a second or third time. Sure, there are times when the results get better in the later innings of a particular game but we generally aren't going to expect that. We can see that just from looking at league splits:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=p&lg=NL&year=2010#times

And that's going to understate the effect, as only the better starting pitchers typically get to face a batter a third and (especially) the 4th time.

There are exceptions though:

"Some pitchers, like Zack Greinke, who expertly mixes his pitches, seemingly get more effective as the game goes on. Some, like CC Sabathia, who maintains his velocity throughout, show no observed split."

I noticed Greinke's unusual split yesterday when I wanted to provide evidence for why I thought he should be pinch hit for (I still think he should have been http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif ):

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=greinza01&year=Career&t=p#times

I don't know how statistically significant that is but we aren't talking about 100 PA either. It's interesting to speculate on WHY Greinke might break the mold.

[logan82]

I noticed that early in the game he hadn't used his change or curve yet(or was it his slider). At least according to Gameday. He only had 3 different pitches(2-seam, 4-seam, and curve/slider) early in the game but in the 7th he was using 5 pitches. I don't remember which inning I first noticed so he may have just been saving certain pitches for certain players.

[CheezWizHed]

Sure, there are times when the results get better in the later innings of a particular game but we generally aren't going to expect that.

 

Normally any pitcher doesn't make it to the 8th or 9th innings anymore unless he has an "ON" game. So its not uncommon (but deceiving) to see a pitcher having a better ERA/OPS against/whatever stat in the 8th and 9th innings than the 6th or 7th.

 

As for Grienke, I'm a little confused by the stats there. It shows that he does better the 3rd time through the order than the 1st or second (I'll ignore the 4th time through for the reasons listed previously). But it also shows that pitches 1-25 and 51-75 are comparable and better than 26-50 and 76-100 (which are also comparable). So that seems a little contradictory...

 

I know certain types of pitchers (namely sinker pitchers) tend to pitch better when tired. I forget who he was, but we had someone 5-10 years ago that when he pitched on too much rest, would throw too hard, causing his FB to flatten and then get hit hard(er). Jack Morris (at least later in his career) was another guy like that. He seemed to get better the more tired he pitched.

[rluzinski]

My whole point is that for the vast majority of pitchers, you don't know if they are "on" just based off of the results. Most likely, they will have much poorer results than in the start of the game.