Through 50 Games...

[Warning Track Power]

The Brewers are 27-23. This puts them on pace to be 81-69 through 150 games on September 16. My question to you is if I were to give you the option of:

 

1. Taking that record right now and ensuring that the Brewers would be 81-69 at 150 games

OR

2. Play out the schedule and risk having a worse because you think they will be better than that at 150 games?

 

Which would you take?

 

Now keep in mind, there would still be 12 games left in the season and:

 

Brewers would conclude with: 3 @ Reds, 3 @ Cubs, 3 vs. Marlins, 3 vs. Pirates

Reds would conclude with: 3 vs. Brewers, 3 vs Astros, 3 @ Pirates, 3 @ Mets

Cards would conclude with: 3 @ Phillies, 3 vs Mets, 3 vs Cubs, 3 @ Astros

 

81-69 would look awfully good considering the upcoming June we have, but I am not sure I could predict anything more than 6-6 in those final 12 on May 25. Would 87 wins take the NL Central this year?

 

What are your thoughts?

[MVP2110]

I would easily take 81-69. I would expect at least 4 or 5 wins alone against Pittsburgh & Chicago. I would like our chances at home against Florida as well. I see at least 8-9 wins in those last 12 games. 7-5 at worst. I think right around 87-88 wins wins the division.

[Oxy]

Well, if the Cards, Marlins and other decent teams in the NL also continue at their pace I'd have to pass on this proposition. The Cards would have the division wrapped up at 90-60, and the Marlins would be sitting at 88-62, 7 games in front of the Crew for the wild card.

 

I'll take 81-69 if they are within 1.5 games of a playoff spot. If not, I'd let the season play out and see if they can do better.

[dlk9s]

Well, if the Cards, Marlins and other decent teams in the NL also continue at their pace I'd have to pass on this proposition. The Cards would have the division wrapped up at 90-60, and the Marlins would be sitting at 88-62, 7 games in front of the Crew for the wild card.

 

I'll take 81-69 if they are within 1.5 games of a playoff spot. If not, I'd let the season play out and see if they can do better.

You're not understanding his proposition. He's not assuming any team maintains its current pace. He's just asking if you'd be willing to guarantee a record of 81-69 at the 150 game mark.

 

Obviously if every team maintained its current pace the Brewers would miss the playoffs. There wouldn't be a question to pose, then.

[paul253]

It's a tough call, but with how poorly they are playing on the road I think I'd have to take it. St Louis has some guys (Lohse, McClellun) pitching way over their heads and I'm not sure they can keep up their pace.

[TheCrew]

Option 2 - this team hasn't been healthy until recently and with Hart starting to show signs of life plus Greinke looking better each time out...... I like the chances of this team having more than 81 wins at the 150 mark.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm going with 2. I think that the fact this team is 4 games over 500 is a huge accomplishment when you factor in the long skid a few weeks ago.

[Ennder]

While I would be very happy with option 1 and I think it would reflect the true talent of this team pretty well, I don't think that pace is enough to make the playoffs so I'd have to go with option 2. One of the NL Central teams will play above their talent level and that is the one who goes to the playoffs, so far it has been the Cardinals so we have an uphill battle.

[joepepsi]

I'd play out the season. If they are this close to first place in July, then you can be assured Doug will make a move or two to improve the team. A new ss, a power bat off the bench like Thome, something for the pitching staff. That would push them to 90 wins or better.

[JohnBriggs12]

This team has the potential to be much better than 81-69. Why take a guaranty that insures nothing better than that?

 

June and early July schedule includes 6 games against the 16-32 Twins. What they are suddenly going to be good again? It also includes 7 games against the Mets and Cubs. That's hardly daunting.

[Roderick]

June and early July schedule includes 6 games against the 16-32 Twins. What they are suddenly going to be good again?

Against the Brewers, yes.

[CheezWizHed]

June and early July schedule includes 6 games against the 16-32 Twins. What they are suddenly going to be good again?

 

Well, they went from the playoffs last year to suddenly bad... They have had a lot of injuries (more than the Brewers) and could be healthy again by then (or at least healthier). And they seem to be our kryptonite...

 

As for the OP, I think they are a 90+ win team as long as they stay healthy. 81-69 at the 150 mark may make us a WC team and that would be nice, but we didn't go all in just to make the WC. I'd like them to make a deep run in the playoffs. Not that they need a better record to do that, but to be one of the stronger teams at the end and finishing strong.

[topper09er]

It's a tough call, but with how poorly they are playing on the road I think I'd have to take it. St Louis has some guys (Lohse, McClellun) pitching way over their heads and I'm not sure they can keep up their pace.

They also have some guy who usually hits .331/.426/.624 currently hitting .261/.330/.407.

 

Wow I didnt realize he is still doing that badly. This partial season alone has lowered his career BA by 2 points, OBP by 3 points and SLG by 7 points.

[RockCoCougars]

They also have some guy who usually hits .331/.426/.624 currently hitting .261/.330/.407.

 

Wow I didnt realize he is still doing that badly. This partial season alone has lowered his career BA by 2 points, OBP by 3 points and SLG by 7 points.

I think that they might have developed a new test for HGH or something. Has Pujols homered in the past month? He sure looked like a horse's behind watching that double against the Brewers.