What is a reasonable expectation for our 3rd baseman?

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

McGehee is simply having an awful season, with below average defense at the hot corner, and an OPS threatening to fall below .700. I realize that 3B that hit over .800 OPS are in short supply in the league, but it continues to be extremely frustrating to watch Casey come up with men on base and hit a weak grounder into a double play. Maybe this is an over-reaction to a dreadful May for Casey, but i question why he is hitting in the 5th hole after such a frustrating stretch.

 

I realize all players are streaky, but Casey has really only had 1 good month (August, 2010) in his past 6. Looking at his OPS (by year), we're talking a serious decline.

 

Hart, Weeks, LuCroy, Braun, and Fielder are raking, but man are Kotsay/Gomez, McGehee, and Betancourt/Counsell cold right now

[Ennder]

He's on pace to be around a 2 WAR player, that seems like a reasonable projection. There is no reason to think this is anything more than a little cold streak, he'll most likely have a hot streak at some point as well.

[logan82]

I would expect a .340ish OBP with a .750ish OPS and below average defense. He is just now reaching 2 years worth of PA in the majors and has a poor hitting MiLB track record.

 

I am not sure what to realistically expect from Lucroy yet. He doesn't really have many PA above A+ ball and I think we can't really read much into last year. I don't think we have a hitter clearly better than McGehee outside of Weeks, Braun, Fielder, Hart.

[Warning Track Power]

If McGehee falls into the .270/.340 area with 15-20 HRs and 70-80 RBI I will be ecstatic. I never had him pegged for the type of player that would put up the numbers he did last year.

 

I'm no coach but I think Sveum needs to take a lok at his swing. He seems to be dipping his right shoulder an awful lot and it seems to be quite pronounced. I don't recall it ever being that extreme in the past.

[DHonks]

McGehee was solid all throughout the minors while being young for his levels. He's been above avg for 2 full years in the majors. He's likely just in need of making an adjustment or two before he takes off again. I'd expect something along the lines of .275/.335/.460 for the year.

[derflotr]

I think the timing is just off. Seems like he's had a million groundouts to the left side. Pulling off the off-speed and just late on the fastball. I thought yesterday was going to be the turnaround for him with a couple solid hits, but given the play-by-play in the JS game blog today I guess it didn't carry into today.

[topper09er]

I'd expect something along the lines of .275/.335/.460 for the year.

If he ends up with the same number of PAs as last season he will need to hit .281/.339/.492 over the next 467 PA to reach those numbers. Looks doable for BA and OBP but not for slugging

 

[theavrock]

Slugging is way down for this year compared to '09 and '10 but BA and OBP are just a tad off. He had almost 1100 PA's at +.800 OPS. I am having a hard time believing this is the "real" McGehee.

 

I think there is much more evidence to suggest that he is going through a rough spell and I am guessing he makes an adjustment and goes on a hot streak.

 

Will it be enough to match his first two seasons? Probably not, but he's dug too large of [expletive deleted] for that. I still think he has a very respectable season though.

(edit: removed filtered cuss --1992)

[ELCABALLO45]

As bad as McGehee has been this year the NL average for 3B this year is

 

.257/.326/.376/.701

[letsgored]

Casey's OPS is now .674. YBet's is .582. Might the Brewers have the worst performing left side of the infield in MLB, considering both offense and defense? Both Casey and Yuni need to start picking it up with the stick and the glove.

[Hammer]

I really wish the Brewers brass would be able to upgrade 3B at the deadline as Casey looks older and slower every game...

[GAME05]

for me, the MLB average 3rd basemen hasn't played much into it because it hasn't been a matter of having alternatives at the position. that Gamel is at AAA and not on the bench says his destiny is at the other side of the diamond. beyond him, there isn't much in terms of Minor League players of FAs. i'm not expecting McGehee to be a world-beater or anything, and i'm happy enough to have a competent player at that position instead of it being a black hole in our lineup.

 

although with Lucroy's recent rise up the batting order, i wonder if he and McGehee might end up switching batting orders in the near future. although i guess i don't see that happening because of their power abilities.

[TheEndless7]

for me, the MLB average 3rd basemen hasn't played much into it because it hasn't been a matter of having alternatives at the position. that Gamel is at AAA and not on the bench says his destiny is at the other side of the diamond. beyond him, there isn't much in terms of Minor League players of FAs. i'm not expecting McGehee to be a world-beater or anything, and i'm happy enough to have a competent player at that position instead of it being a black hole in our lineup.

Yea, I pretty much agree. Just about all that appears to be down there is Taylor Green, who has a pretty good line at .258/.358/.445/.803, which probably isn't an upgrade over McGehee at the major league level. Although I do like the 21 walks in 128 ABs.

[DHonks]

McGehee looks to be pulling off on the ball. When he's right, he's a very dangerous hitter to all fields.

[Roderick]

I don't think we have a hitter clearly better than McGehee outside of Weeks, Braun, Fielder, Hart.

I wouldn't concede that Hart is clearly better hitter than McGehee as you never know when Hart will go flailing at low, outside pitches for a few months in a row. But boy has McGehee looked bad lately, defense and offense.

[fondybrewfan]

So say for some reason McGehee either gets hurt or continues another 1-2 months of horrible play; who would get the call to play 3rd? McGehee has been a largely ignored black hole for a while now since it has been easier to pick on some other guys. At some point or another McGehee will have to be held accountable regardless of if we have an inhouse option. If McGehee continues this pace I have to believe upgrading at 3B will be 2nd on the priority list at the trading deadline behind getting an actual MLB SS.

[Roderick]

If McGehee continues this pace I have to believe upgrading at 3B will be 2nd on the priority list at the trading deadline behind getting an actual MLB SS.

I don't see the Brewers replacing McGehee because he only makes $500K and will still be just starting arby next year and he has shown he can be productive in the recent past. Plus, how many 3rd basemen are they going to find in July that are a clear upgrade that won't cost some good prospects (that they should be using to find a shortstop).

 

If Melvin makes a move, I think his first two moves would be to find a shortstop or lefty reliever.

[Ennder]

His K% and BB% are steady, almost all of the problem seems to be he is grounding out a lot more than normal. The majority of the time that kind of thing happens it is just a cold streak. I don't even begin to worry about a guy until the all star break and then it is only if he has looked terrible all year long without any good stretches. I cannot overstate how streaky baseball is as a game, you just can't be looking to dump players every time they have a couple of bad months. This is pretty much what cold McGehee looks like, hot McGehee is an .850-.950 OPS player, he'll show up for a month or two at some point most likely.

[fondybrewfan]

Maybe I can handle cold McGehee for a while longer; but he is routinely up in important situations and has for the most part failed miserably. I vote for moving Plush up to 2nd when he starts and batting Hart 5th. When Gomez starts you probably have to go Hart 2nd and McGehee 5th unless you want to put Lucroy 2nd.

 

At the very least he needs a day or two off. Tommorrow seems like a good a day as any to throw Counsell over at 3rd

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't see replacing McGehee at this point, unless he really flat lines for the next few weeks. Then you lmost have nothing to lose by bringing up Green or Gamel. Even the right trade if there's someone out there worth getting. Who knows, he may get hot again, he's proven he can get the job done. But in the meantime, you just can't have him hitting 5th. Hart really should be there, but if RR is intent on keeping him in the 2 hole, then it has to be Lucroy. While I don't expect Lucroy to stay at his pace, he's still a better bat behind Fielder.

 

Problem is, while Mcgehee is struggling at the plate he doesn't do anything else to help you win. A roadblock on the basepaths, and bad defense. I looks to me like he's guessing on every pitch and swinging if he's expecting fasball no matter where it is. He needs a day off, come back in the 6th spot and mentally start the season over. Tough to watch, but I'm pulling for him.

[bill hAll Star]

When we talk about the "average" 3B in the NL we need to think about this:

 

Pablo Sandoval has barely played and was raking after his weight loss.

Ryan Zimmerman has barely played.

David Wright is on the DL and when he played he was nursing a sore back.

Alvarez was extremely cold and is on the DL.

Rolen spent time on the DL.

Chipper....well, this is to be expected at this point.

 

Not that I'd give him a ton of credit but Casey Blake has also been out.

 

Obviously that could still apply to the argument of: "well nobody has had good play out of their 3B!"

 

But in a more correct manner, you can basically say that if McGehee theoretically kept these numbers up, then he'd be a massive disappointment to those guys who are better (or are supposed to be better) than McGehee.

 

To be honest, most of those guys crushed the ball for 2 weeks and be it through nagging injury or just being on the DL, the "replacement" or injury-plagued play has basically been HORRIBLE bringing them down to that above mentioned .700 OPS.

 

EDIT: Freese isn't a dominating force but he was a decent bat also on the shelf for quite a while.

[Ennder]

Not to mention Aramis Ramirez has been so terrible in the first half. I'd expect the average 3B to be better in the 2nd half overall. As for McGehee his June/July last year was about the same as what he is doing this year. His entire career thus far has been either hot or cold month to month.

 

OPS by month

 

.500

.624

1.100

.823

.718

.907

____

 

.946

.824

.657

.716

.935

.744

 

____

 

.739

.593

 

 

He hasn't shown any consistency at all and there isn't any reason to think a repeat of May is more likely than a .900 OPS month in June. You just have to keep playing him and hope the good outweighs the bad. This is true of all of these types of player who are 20ish HR types with very average BB rates, their results are going to be all over the place.

[JohnBriggs12]

He's definitely pressing. He's taking pitches right down the middle and chasing pitches outside the zone. That's not a good combination. I'm with FondyBrewerfan. I'd move Morgan/Gomez to the 2 spot and Hart to the 5th spot. I'd hit Lucroy 6th and move McGehee down to 7th.

 

A little hot streak and his numbers will be fine. It's not time to panic but I think it would take pressure off him to bat him lower.

[CheezWizHed]

I agree with JB on taking the pressure off of McGehee.

 

But I've always been a Green fan also. I realize he isn't tearing the cover off the ball at AAA, but anyone know what his MLB projection would be? And is that based off last year or does it include this year also?

 

edit - Wow. Posted this and went to the MiLB forum and found my answer, posted 5 minutes earlier:

 

Taylor Green: .213/.291/.352 16:29