The Muscle is available...D'Backs release Russell Branyan

[monty57]

I was in the group that didn't want Kotsay signed, and am in the group which feels he should be replaced if a reasonable replacement presents itself. Even though I don't necessarily like him, I find myself defending him against the onslaught of posts that make Kotsay out to be the worst player to ever don a uniform.

 

Who in this thread is making Kotsay out to be the worst player to don a Brewers uniform? I see a post how Kotsay is a singles hitter which really isn't much of an exagertion and how Kotsay shouldn't/can't play the field. Not much of an exagertion there either. People think Branyan is a better option than Kotsay. I am not sure what point you are even trying to make anymore.

Sure there was some hyperbole, but can you honestly say that you're being objective about Kotsay?

 

First, if Branyan were to be signed, Nieves or Rivera would be gone, and Boggs would certainly be the one to go when Morgan returned, not Kotsay. I said early on in Page 1 that ideally Kotsay should be the one to go, but in the real world, it's not going to happen. Even though this seems to be a certainty, this has essentially turned into another thread bashing Kotsay.

It gets a little tedious when every thread seems to turn to the same subject, so even though I agree on most points, I just decided to question whether those bashing Kotsay were being objective. I just asked a simple question as to whether there may be a reason Kotsay's numbers have been what they were, and you seemed to take it personally. I've posted a couple of times why I think that just maybe we can expect a little more than the ZIPS projections going forward, and how maybe he isn't as bad as some are making out. I've also mentioned that a 4th/5th OF who can get on base, even if he doesn't have power, has value to this team, which is made up of plenty of guys with power. That's it. Maybe I'm being naive, but there must be a reason Melvin likes Kotsay. Maybe there's something he knows which isn't public knowledge, and maybe there's something other than SABR projections that can help evaluate a player's worth to the team.

 

Branyan has been a better hitter than Kotsay for most of his career, but I have no idea if he's injured, or if there is some other reason he was let go other then a bad start to the year. Regardless, Boggs will very likely be the odd man out, so as I & others have said, the real question is whether having Branyan on the bench for the remainder of the year is better for the team than simply holding onto Boggs. Continuing to say why Kotsay should be replaced is about as useful as banging your head against the wall.

[logan82]

Sure there was some hyperbole, but can you honestly say that you're being objective about Kotsay?

 

100% objective, no. Nobody is. A little hyperbole is to be expected. I will ask you to point out where I made any outrageous claims about Kotsay in this thread.

 

 

It gets a little tedious when every thread seems to turn to the same subject, so even though I agree on most points, I just decided to question whether those bashing Kotsay were being objective.

 

I said this about Betancourt and before the season started, every time a thread about signing a player is started it will inevitably turn into a Kotsay or Betancourt thread because they are the 2 weakest links on the team and neither does anything well enough to overlook their faults.

 

If Kotsay were used on the bench solely for pinch hitting against righties, I don't think we'd have the outcry against him that we are seeing.

 

I do. Look at the threads from the offseason when he was signed. That was before Hart was hurt.

 

 

I completely disagree. If Kotsay was just a pinch hitter he would be mostly forgotten. Ron for some reason keeps starting him an thrusting him upon us.

 

I just asked a simple question as to whether there may be a reason Kotsay's numbers have been what they were, and you seemed to take it personally. I've posted a couple of times why I think that just maybe we can expect a little more than the ZIPS projections going forward, and how maybe he isn't as bad as some are making out. I've also mentioned that a 4th/5th OF who can get on base, even if he doesn't have power, has value to this team, which is made up of plenty of guys with power.

 

I probably did take it a little personal and I shouldn't have.(honestly I probably thought you were tyring to give more weight to 50-60 games over the 2300PA he had 2005-2010 where he was bad) If you look at his career though you will see that he really was never a much better than average hitter. He was a pretty good hitter for a CF but he only had 4 better than average years. None since 2004. That is a very long time ago. Yes he can get on base. Nobody is arguing that. What they are arguing is that Branyan, in this case, would be expected to get on base at a similar rate and have the added benefit of being able to hit for power.

 

If we are going to talk about reality then this thread is probably done on page one. Branyan isn't likely to get signed.

[cwolf2012]

"I would have to disagree with that. Offensively, it's tempting to look at just his .354 OBP and suggest that he's been a plus but his .314 SLG negates the OBP and then some. Just remember that 10 points of SLG is equal to roughly 17 points of OBP. A player with the line of .256/.300/.344. would roughly have the same value of what Kotsay has done. "

 

I think you need to check your math, Russ. You got them flipped.

 

EDIT: .354/.314 would be equaled by .300/.406. So assuming Kotsay continues to OBP .354 (bold assumption), his .300 OBP replacement would have to slug .406 to equal his value at this point.

[monty57]

If we are going to talk about reality then this thread is probably done on page one. Branyan isn't likely to get signed.

 

As it would if people like me would stop trying to find something good about schmoes like Kotsay. I guess I just hope he plays like he did for Altanta and not like he did for Boston. The high, high end of Kotsay's potential is probably the low end of Hart's, at around a .750 OPS (although Kotsay's would be more OBP driven). The low end of Kotsay's potential is certainly well below replacement level. Now that Hart hit three HR in a game, maybe Roenicke will decide Hart is no longer "in Spring Training," and we will see less and less of Kotsay. Then Morgan will come back, and we'll only see Kotsay a couple times a week.

 

As far as Branyan goes, if he is healthy, and if we could get him for a cheap price, he could help the team. The negatives I see are:

 

(1) There's a chance that Boggs will leave the organization, but since he keeps getting cut and no one claims him, I think I'm probably higher on Boggs than most people in baseball are, so losing him probably wouldn't be that big a deal.

 

(2) Counsell, Branyan, Kotsay, Gomez/Morgan and the backup catcher really don't give us much defensive flexibility or protection against injury, which leads us to...

 

(3) The opportunity cost... if we are looking to upgrade our bench, would we be better off passing on Branyan and finding someone at another position, like SS. This would be predicated on the assumption that we'd only be able to make one move, which may or may not be a valid asumption.

 

If Melvin is willing to give up Boggs, Kotsay and Nieves or Rivera, then signing Branyan may be a possibilty. We could go with the bench in #2 above and look to grab a SS/2B when/if one becomes available. If Melvin is not willing to give up Boggs, Kotsay and Nieves or Rivera, then I think we'll pass on Branyan and wait for the SS/2B to become available.

[logan82]

I think we all want Kotsay to do well no matter how we think he will do.

 

I actually would prefer Branyan so that Morgan, Hart and Gomez get more playing time. I would hope that if given a guy who obviously shouldn't be in the field was given to our manager he wouldn't play him in the field.

 

Now that Hart hit three HR in a game, maybe Roenicke will decide Hart is no longer "in Spring Training," and we will see less and less of Kotsay. Then Morgan will come back, and we'll only see Kotsay a couple times a week.

 

I am not hopeful.

[monty57]

I responded to the link in the other thread, so I won't repeat myself, but the Roenicke quote you linked to makes me feel a lot of emotions, and none of them are good... sad, mad, confused.

 

If I'm hearing him correctly, because he saw Hart play a few games against the Angels in ST over the past few seasons when he was a coach there, he's decided that Hart is not an everyday player. How does that even remotely make sense?

[Ennder]

I have always felt that Hart tends to wear down when he plays full time and I think giving him an extra day off here and there isn't the worst idea in the world. He certainly shouldn't be sitting a game every week or anything though, a game every other week is probably about right.

[Warning Track Power]

monty57[/b]](2) Counsell, Branyan, Kotsay, Gomez/Morgan and the backup catcher really don't give us much defensive flexibility or protection against injury, which leads us to...

 

(3) The opportunity cost... if we are looking to upgrade our bench, would we be better off passing on Branyan and finding someone at another position, like SS. This would be predicated on the assumption that we'd only be able to make one move, which may or may not be a valid asumption.

 

If Melvin is willing to give up Boggs, Kotsay and Nieves or Rivera, then signing Branyan may be a possibilty. We could go with the bench in #2 above and look to grab a SS/2B when/if one becomes available. If Melvin is not willing to give up Boggs, Kotsay and Nieves or Rivera, then I think we'll pass on Branyan and wait for the SS/2B to become available.

Response to (2): Other than the LH heaviness of it, I don't have issue with that bench. That looks better to me than what the Brewers will have tonight against Washington.

Response to (3): I doubt that any acquired SS becomes a bench player. If the Brewers are going to acquire a SS then that player will immediately become the starter. I don't foresee any scenario where we trade for a backup SS when Counsell is still here. Maybe in 2012, but not in 2011.

 

I believe DM is more than willing to give up Boggs, as evidenced by already putting him on waivers, but is terrified of losing Nieves for some reason (see: why Kottaras was sent down instead of Nieves). Having said that, when Nyjer is back and takes a roster spot, there really is no room for 2 backup Cs when neither is above average at the plate. I doubt we pick up Branyan but it is not because of a corresponding move to find another backup SS.

 

I could see a scenario where the eventual (hopefully) acquired SS immediately becomes the starter and YuBet is DFA'd or traded for a bag of nuts with the Brewers picking up the $2MM buyout for next season. This leaves room for one more spot on the roster, be it Branyan, Boggs or whoever else.

 

 

[brewers19]

This thread needs more dingers.

[trwi7]

This thread needs more dingers.

Like this?

 

[Funketown]

This thread needs more dingers.

And pictures. Cool pictures.

 

http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRPe1fbaZgNgypFJGXWQ09EHHIWXGLoskHYCovSxiR9U_1heyuB&t=1

[rluzinski]

To your final point, do the SABR stats take into account correlation among players? i.e. the Brewers have a lot of high-SLG players, so it would seem logical that the addition of a high-OBP player would have greater positive effect for them than the same player may have if added to a team made up of low-SLG/high-OBP players.

 

You can run a simulation in Excel to test those kind of theories. Putting a high OBP, low SLG player front of a higher SLG player is indeed better but the effects are very small. Of course, Kotsay isn't a high OBP player at this point in his career. His current line is .244/.340 .300/.640 and I would STILL take the under on that .340 OBP (I would take the over on the SLG, though).

[topper09er]

The Angels have signed the muscle, if he is good enough for Scioscia then maybe RRR some time in the future?

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/a...0&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

[brwrsfan]

We really missed the ball on this one in my opinion. Our bench is the worst in baseball, there's no way he wouldnt have improved it. Even if he hit .230 (like everyone else on our bench or lower), he still had the threat to hit a bomb on any pitch.

[TheCrew]

He could easily end up with the full time gig at 1B for the Angels - isn't Morales out for the season now?

[Warning Track Power]

I agree that we really missed the ball. An experienced power bat is what we really need when we have the Kotsays, Counsells and Nieves on the bench. Branyan brought exactly that. As big on Katin as I am, his lack of experience in a PH role off the bench may not translate.

 

Experienced power bat on the market and we apparently just said no. Great.

[Warning Track Power]

He could easily end up with the full time gig at 1B for the Angels - isn't Morales out for the season now?

Not a chance. Mark Trumbo is a stud.

 

 

[TheCrew]

Trumbo a stud?

http://www.fangraphs.com/...-as-a-full-time-starter/

[Warning Track Power]

Yes...a stud. If he were a Brewers prospect, we all would be clamoring for him to be playing OVER even Russell Branyan. Especially in that Angel lineup. Give him the opportunity to grow and mature while not having to hit in the 2-5 spots when Abreu, Kendrick, Hunter and Wells are healthy.

 

Maybe he's more Russell Branyan than Prince Fielder, but given the choice, I'd take a young copy of Russell Branyan over the old, real Russell Branyan.

[Dollarbill13]

To your final point, do the SABR stats take into account correlation among players? i.e. the Brewers have a lot of high-SLG players, so it would seem logical that the addition of a high-OBP player would have greater positive effect for them than the same player may have if added to a team made up of low-SLG/high-OBP players.

 

You can run a simulation in Excel to test those kind of theories. Putting a high OBP, low SLG player front of a higher SLG player is indeed better but the effects are very small. Of course, Kotsay isn't a high OBP player at this point in his career. His current line is .244/.340 .300/.640 and I would STILL take the under on that .340 OBP (I would take the over on the SLG, though).

Russ, Do you have any advanced simulators in excel or are you just creating simple-ish ones?

[Dragonbait]

Watching MLB network right now... lookin' at the muscle sittin on the bench as Trombo hitsa bomb...

[TheCrew]

Yes...a stud. If he were a Brewers prospect, we all would be clamoring for him to be playing OVER even Russell Branyan. Especially in that Angel lineup. Give him the opportunity to grow and mature while not having to hit in the 2-5 spots when Abreu, Kendrick, Hunter and Wells are healthy.

 

Maybe he's more Russell Branyan than Prince Fielder, but given the choice, I'd take a young copy of Russell Branyan over the old, real Russell Branyan.

You can call him a stud when he does that at the MLB level - many Angels fans on other boards are already wanting at least a platoon with Branyan. Angels want to win now - Long term, without a doubt you take the younger version. However, as of right now he has a sub .300 OBP - Angels aren't going to let him work it out if that doesn't change fast.

[rluzinski]

To your final point, do the SABR stats take into account correlation among players? i.e. the Brewers have a lot of high-SLG players, so it would seem logical that the addition of a high-OBP player would have greater positive effect for them than the same player may have if added to a team made up of low-SLG/high-OBP players.

 

You can run a simulation in Excel to test those kind of theories. Putting a high OBP, low SLG player front of a higher SLG player is indeed better but the effects are very small. Of course, Kotsay isn't a high OBP player at this point in his career. His current line is .244/.340 .300/.640 and I would STILL take the under on that .340 OBP (I would take the over on the SLG, though).

Russ, Do you have any advanced simulators in excel or are you just creating simple-ish ones?

I have a lot of simple ones and one that I have probably 200 hours into. It's not a full game simulator, however.

Using a monte carlo approach, it's relatively easy to make a spreadsheet that you could enter batting lines for everyone in the order and it could spit out average runs scored/game. It will assume an average starting pitcher, average park, average base advancements on a hit, etc. It would miss a lot of the nuances of the sport but should give you a good idea of how to create an optimal batting order.

[cwolf2012]

"Maybe he's more Russell Branyan than Prince Fielder"

 

He's not really either. Both those guys have good plate discipline. Trumbo has a career .330 OBP in the minors. Not particularly good.

[endaround]

Trumbo is a Salt Lake City product. His numbers before that are rather pedestrian for 1B. He has power but little discipline. He's more Jeff Francoeur than Fielder or Branyan.